Monday, January 26, 2009
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Monday, January 19, 2009
Sunday, January 18, 2009
Disturbing
I saw this on Viking Update this morning, and even though I was fully aware of how bad the Vikings special teams was this year, seeing it laid out this way made me vomit repeatedly. Makes me wonder how Minnesota even won 10 games.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Birds!
Confronted by the most compelling conference championship in the history of the NFL (Eagles at Cardinals), I turned and ran to something much more light-hearted, though possibly as interesting. Bird mascots are taking over the league. Cardinals, Eagles, and Ravens, all in the conference finals in one season? Who would have thought?
Last year the same weekend was full of... big men. Patriots, Giants, and Packers. Neato. The Eagles last conference championship was another one fought in mid-air, against the Falcons. Probably the most incredible thing about the three-bird weekend is that the Cardinals are one of the birds. The Eagles have gotten this far quite a lot since Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb took over the team (this is their fourth NFC Championship game together), but the Cardinals hadn't won a playoff game since 1998 before they beat Atlanta at home two weeks ago. The Ravens, of course, are among the recently crowned, having won the 2000 Super Bowl.
The Philadelphia-Arizona game seems like a bit of a rip-off; what happened to New York and Carolina, the two running-est and best-loved NFC teams all season? Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh-Baltimore rematch seems almost too good to be true. Here's what needs to be known: The NFC game will be more exciting than the AFC game. Exciting is almost impossible to define in professional sports; some people want a bunch of touchdowns, some want a bunch of defense, and some quit watching after their fantasy football team lost in the playoffs. In this case, it will be a matter of the NFC game staying close, and the Steelers running away from Baltimore.
Baltimore has played well the last month, and won some very big games. They almost beat Pittsburgh last time around, in a heated, controversial game. But the fact of the matter is that the Steelers are the better team, and are much better prepared for this game. They have no glaring weaknesses, and are playing at home. They have a quarterback with a ring. Look, I know I've lauded Baltimore for most of the year, including last week after they beat Tennessee. And I think they will play fine. And they will hit and run the ball and all of that. And they will lose.
The Eagles are match-up problem for most teams because of their aggressive defense. They force teams to change things up and take chances. The Cardinals are a tough match-up because their passing game can beat anybody. Basically, this game will boil down to two things: Kurt Warner staying on his feet, and the Cardinals defense continuing to tackle well and play at a high intensity.
Last week the Arizona defense was as nasty as they are capable of. They were hitting and wrapping up and catching the ball when Jake Delhomme threw it near them. They'll have to do the same. Brian Westbrook hasn't done much in this year's playoffs, and the Cardinals would be wise to keep attention on him. McNabb is playing well. He'll hurt the Cardinals a few times, but they should be able to minimize the big plays. Warner, on the other hand, just needs to find the hot receiver on blitzes (something he has always been known for), and give Larry Fitzgerald a couple chances to make plays. If Warner can do that, the Cardinals can score 30 points.
With that:
Pittsburgh 34-17. Might be a close first half, but eventually Pittsburgh will make the big plays.
Philadelphia 30-27. I can't make myself actually pick the Cardinals, for the third straight week.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Playoff Rankings, Week 2
1. Pittsburgh Steelers: Most impressive win in these playoffs. San Diego got off to a fast start, and Pittsburgh spent the rest of the game asserting their will, as it were.
2. Baltimore Ravens: They just keep beating people up. Pittsburgh is the team best equipped to beat Baltimore (they've done it twice this season).
3. Philadelphia Eagles: Donovan McNabb outplayed Eli Manning. Vast understatement. The Eagles run defense won the game in the second half.
4. Tennessee Titans: They probably could have won that game. Turnovers are rough.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Here comes Kurt Warner!
6. New York Giants: What happened?
7. Carolina Panthers: We know what happened to Carolina: Jake Delhomme.
8. Indianapolis Colts: It seems like a safe bet that the Colts will fall a little ways with Tony Dungy gone.
9. Miami Dolphins
10. San Diego Chargers: I still can't believe they extended their season two weeks.
11. Atlanta Falcons
12. Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Divisional Playoffs, Saturday
The question that can't help being asked while watching the Baltimore Ravens is how can one team assemble so many chippy, aggressive, nasty players? The defense is clearly the part of this team that embodies that description best. I can only imagine that when one carries the ball against the Ravens they expect not only to be hit hard, but be hit more than once, and have somebody land on them a second after the whistle blows.
The Ravens aren't cheap. But they do get every bit of physicality possible into every play. Even a tough, scrappy team like Tennessee didn't quite look ready for the Ravens intensity. And the Titans played pretty hard yesterday; don't read this as a "Tennessee is soft" piece. But the Ravens are just that... nasty.
The Titans had something figured out about the Ravens defense going into the game. No other team has thrown the ball that well against Baltimore this year. Kerry Collins was finding people (pretty much Justin Gage every time) open on 3rd downs repeatedly. Chris Johnson was gashing the Ravens on the ground until he got hurt. Dan Dierdorf kept telling us how tired the Ravens defense must have been, to play on the road last week and beat Miami, and come into Tennessee against the rested Titans, and be on the field so much.
But the Titans couldn't finish drives. The Ravens don't let teams finish drives. Some of those turnovers were pretty ugly. But that is what happens when a defense pressures you on every play. Eventually, Collins was going to throw the ball up for grabs, and eventually, one of those hits was going to jar the ball loose. And where was LenDale White? He looked slow. Once Johnson went down, the Titans run game was dead.
The most important thing to take away from this is that the Ravens might be the only team in the league that never has to worry about "match-ups". They can play against anybody, because no matter what team is on the other sideline, they are going to out-physical them, and never stop pressuring the quarterback. This is why everybody should love seeing Baltimore advance, because they are going to be in any game, and do it with sheer will.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are making the most improbable playoff run since... the 2007 New York Giants. Basically, the Cardinals offense went to sleep for about a month and a half, and we all forgot how good their passing game is. Well, they woke up, and we should only be surprised by that fact, not that they are having success.
The one thing that should have been noticed about Carolina all year is that they were never able to throw the ball. They won a lot of games because they were rushing for over 200 yards. Is it safe to call Jake Delhomme "Chad Pennington with no arm"? If that isn't straightforward enough, let's just establish that Pennington has no arm. I'm not ready to list off a bunch of reasons why the Panthers are doomed, but one has to be a little perplexed about the fact that this team basically was a good quarterback away from being as good as any team in the league.
As for Arizona, Larry Fitzgerald sums it up. I still think Andre Johnson is the best wide receiver in the league, but Fitzgerald took that game over. And what about Edgerin James? Great late-season comeback, one that might actually land him on an NFL roster next year.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
There are more games?
So, the NFL goes on even though the Vikings are out. I am way late on this (the first game starts in 10 minutes):
Ravens 20, Titans 14.
Panthers 24, Cardinals 21.
Giants 24, Eagles 12.
Steelers 31, Chargers 17.
Friday, January 9, 2009
One week later
This photo seems an apt way to sum up the Vikings season. A couple days late, but you'll understand:
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
I freak out after reading the Strib
Dear Patrick Reusse, Star Tribune Floating Head:
Your logic is simply not on point. Listen, if Tarvaris Jackson is not a viable option at quarterback because we lost to the Eagles, he wasn't a viable option the week before or the week before that. If you watch every play, and you know anything about football (and I know enough about journalism to know that you have this job because you worked your ass off as a reporter and writer for years, NOT because you are an expert on football), you would understand a few things: Tarvaris Jackson gave the Vikings a better chance to win that game than Gus Frerotte. Check your buddy Kevin Seifert out. He threw out some interesting stats about the two quarterbacks' success against the blitz. Frerotte was a lot worse than Jackson. Also, there is not a single quarterback in the NFL who "beats" effective blitz or effective pressure. For reference, go watch Tom Brady in last year's Super Bowl, or for something more local, Peyton Manning in the first half against the Vikings this year. Actually, that is a great example. You know why Manning picked us apart in the second half? We stopped getting to him. Simple. There were Eagles running free on most passing plays, and Philadelphia didn't even blitz as much as expected. No, I repeat, NO, quarterback would have succeed against the pressure.
That said, Jackson was inaccurate all day. You know his only problem? He is too willing to try to throw passes when he is being hit. Almost every bad play he has ever made has come when he isn't able to step into a throw.
"You can only do what the quarterback can handle, and once he was blitzed, sacked and fumbled to end the opening possession of the second half, Jackson couldn't handle the basics."
You can also only do what the coaches give you a chance to do. Brad Childress, in Weeks 1 and 2 and in the second half against Philadelphia, clammed up. His play calling gave away the fact that he had no confidence in Jackson. Don't blame Jackson for Childress not giving him a chance to fail or succeed. Next time you talk to ol' Brad, ask him what happened to the seam routes to Shiancoe and the deep ins to Wade. If you can only do what the quarterback can handle, and he is struggling, why do you keep calling the same plays?
The only smart thing Childress did? Accept that holding penalty. Remember when the Giants converted a 3rd and 21 in Vikings territory? Or when David Akers made a 51-yarder about 15 minutes after that first field goal? Oops. Go watch any football game on any Sunday. On 3rd and 15 or more, teams gain yards. Almost always. The likelihood of that ending up being a 53-yard isn't even worth talking about. And the argument that maybe the defense would have come up with a huge play? They could come up with a huge play every single down, in theory. Why not just leave them on the field for 60 minutes?
And the last line, about Detroit? What a crock of shit. Seriously? How could you possibly manage that? How did you even come up with that comparison? If you aren't OK with 10-6 and the playoffs, go buy a fucking Yankees hat.
Yours always,
Brad Tucker
Vikings Defense: Tice vs Childress
Here are some comparisons between the Vikings defense of the last three years (2006-2008) and the Vikings defense in the three years before Brad Childress took over (2003-2005). (Mike Tice was also the coach in 2002, but I excluded that year to keep it at three years each. Therefore, it is less a comparison of the two coaches as a comparison between Childress and where he took off from.) The Vikings were a combined 26-22 in the three years before Childress. With him as head coach, they are 24-24. They made one playoff appearance in each stretch.
The passing numbers are a little less encouraging. Completion percentage has gone up from 61.3 to 61.6. Passing yards allowed per game has gone up from 219.1 to 239.4. Yards per play has gone down. Touchdowns have gone down from 65 to 52. Interceptions and sacks have both gone down. Basically, things are about the same against the pass. But, it bears noting that in 2008 the Vikings improved in basically ever single pass defense statistic except interceptions.
The most important differenc is in 3rd down percentage. From 2003-2005 Minnesota allowed 3rd down conversions 42.6% of the time. Childress' defenses give them up just 36.2% of the time, and were 4th in the league this year. 4th down conversions have also improved.
Most appalling are the penalty numbers. In Mike Tice's second season, 2003, Minnesota did OK with penalties, committing 90 for 720 yards. Since then the team has committed at least 109 every season. To show how much penalties have gone down league-wide, the Vikings committed 110 in 2004 and were ranked 15th in the league. This season they committed 109 and were ranked 29th.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Playoff Rankings
1. New York Giants: They are the favorites to win it all right now.
2. Tennessee Titans: It's time to back up that nice regular season record.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Hopefully their week off allowed them to gear up for a big rematch with San Diego. No reason why they should lose this game.
4. Baltimore Ravens: Basically the only reason they won't beat Tennessee is if Joe Flacco has a bad game.
5. Carolina Panthers: I expect them to be in the NFC Championship.
6. Philadelphia Eagles: They are who we thought they were. But the Giants offensive line will present a new challenge.
7. Indianapolis Colts: Not the way the Colts thought this season would end, but there was something a little shaky about them all year.
8. Miami Dolphins: Chad Pennington should be able to take this team to the playoffs again next year.
9. Arizona Cardinals: Nice home playoff win, but I don't see them moving on.
10. San Diego Chargers: Nice home playoff win, but I don't see them moving on. Good luck, Darren Sproles.
11. Atlanta Falcons: Nice season, far beyond expectations.
12. Minnesota Vikings: This team needs a quarterback. And a new coach.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Vikings lose, lose, lose
As usual, my predictions were awful. I got one game right, and was pretty wrong pretty much across the board on the other games, on every point.
There are about 600 things I could say about the Vikings-Eagles game. It was disappointing in many, many ways, because of the bad and good things Minnesota did. Unfortunately, everybodys' projections for this game were correct: the Eagles blitzing stymied Tarvaris Jackson, and the Vikings couldn't sustain drives. What I want to talk about it is why what everybody is saying after the game is wrong.
There have been basically two complaints against the Vikings in the hours since they lost a home wild card game: Jackson was a mess, and Childress should have accepted a holding penalty in the first quarter and made the Eagles go for a longer field goal.
I'll start with the field goal. The score was 0-0, and DeSean Jackson had just returned a punt 62 yards into Minnesota territory. The Vikings forced a three-and-out, but there was a holding penalty on Philadelphia on the 3rd down play, an incomplete pass. Rather than give the Eagles a shot at a 3rd and 19, Childress declined the penalty, making it 4th and 9 from the Vikings 26. David Akers nailed a 43-yard field goal and the Eagles took a 3-0 lead.
The criticism is basically that the Vikings should have had more confidence in their defense, and tried to force the Eagles to attempt the kick from further out. This is problematic to me for a few reasons. First, 3rd and 19 is not impossible to get. The Giants converted a 3rd and 21 last week in Vikings territory. Second, a 43-yard field goal is pretty makable for almost all kickers, but Akers is pretty capable of a 53-yarder in a dome, and actually made one from 51 yards later in the game. The major problem is that it is an unnecessary risk. Imagine if the Eagles convert that 3rd and 19? By forcing them to go three-and-out, the Vikings had squashed some momentum. the Eagles had moved the ball well on their first possession, and the Jackson punt return had given them some more juice. Being down 3-0 in the first quarter of a home playoff game is not such a horrible position. On the off-chance that the Eagles convert, suddenly you could be down 7-0 with no momentum. It would be a game-changing moment, one that Childress could not risk at that point in the game. And I think his decision was further justified, not only by Akers' 51-yarder, but also by the the fact that the defense continued to force the Eagles into long 3rd downs and held them to field goals until the Brian Westbrook touchdown.
On to Tarvaris Jackson. My opening disclaimer: I am not going to defend Jackson too much; he was inaccurate, and was very uncomfortable for most of the day. He made some poor decisions, and was unable to get untracked and figure out how to get the ball upfield. That said, his poor play was emblematic of an offense-wide collapse. Everybody knew the Eagles were going to go after Jackson, jut like they go after every quarterback. The Vikings had absolutely no answer for the blitzing. That is why I think the coaching staff is as much to blame for Jackson's poor game as Jackson himself.
Here is one football absolute: The best way to beat any quarterback is to pressure him. Almost no quarterback is successful when he is being rushed and hit often. We saw the Giants shut down the Patriots by getting to Tom Brady early and often in last year's super bowl. We've seen it happen to Peyton Manning, Brett Favre; the list goes on forever. The Eagles were getting Jackson on almost every pass play, and most of the time it was guys coming untouched. No quarterback can be successful in that situation. To make things worse, the Vikings tend to throw from one or two wide receiver formations. There were no open receivers even when the Eagles sent six or seven defenders. How is that possible? Wasn't Childress supposed to be familiar with Jim Johnson?
Jackson showed what I think is his worst attribute: He will try to throw passes even when he is getting hit. almost all of his worst plays in his career have come when he isn't able to step into a throw. The interception taken back for a touchdown by Asante Samuel, which pretty much was the difference in the game, was a perfect example. The play was kind of doomed from the start. Samuel read it immediately, and Rice can sort of a sloppy route; he was somewhere between an out and a comeback. Jackson threw the ball when he shouldn't have, and got hit, all of that adding up to a pass that went directly to Samuel.
Jackson still showed some flashes in this game, despite generally struggling. He can make some crazy throws, and is a very good runner. It is hard to believe that he is not having more success in the league, though we have seen physical potential fail before in this league. the worst thing that happened for Jackson in this game was the second-half play calling. There is no doubt that Childress and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell clammed up in the second half. One of the main reasons I supported Jackson's benching at the start of the year was because it was clear that the Vikings were not calling the game aggressively, and it was clear that the reason for that was Jackson. When he returned to the lineup, the playbook stayed as open as it was with Gus Frerotte. Jackson's best plays were coming on intermediate routes in the middle of the field. We didn't see any of those against Philadelphia.
I think it is easy to blame the quarterback most of the time, and maybe even right. This time, I think it was an offense-wide problem. There were some positives in the game. Adrian PEterson and Chester Taylor were as effective as they could be, considering the team was down for most of the day, and the Eagles defense played pretty good. Jim Kleinsasser is still the best blocking tight end in the league, and had two nice catches. On defense, Jared Allen was stellar and fill-ins Brian Robison and Ellis Wyms were very good. Jimmy Kennedy might have even earned a chance at the final roster for next season. Cedric Griffin played one of his better games. A disappointing loss, but not a shocker.
The Ravens did exactly what I thought they would to the Dolphins: They physically beat them up, and they took advantage of the huge air-time on all of Chad Pennington's passes. I know he is very accurate and a very steady presence at quarterback, but nobody can get away with those throws against the Ravens defense. Willis McGahee can be frighteningly good at times.
I didn't know the Chargers were capable of the game they played Saturday. They pretty much won in every facet of the game. Take away a couple bad red zone turnovers and that game wouldn't have been close. The Colts sort of did what I expected, holding the ball, converting third downs, but they wore down in the second half.
I hinted in my last post that maybe the Cardinals should be getting more respect heading into the playoffs. It was a good match up for them, hosting the Falcons, and they took advantage. Matt Ryan played OK, but was not ready for a playoff game. Kurt Warner took advantage of a porous Falcons defense all day. I still like Andre Johnson as the league's best wide receiver, but Larry Fitzgerald is a close second. The ball never touches any part of his body but his hands.
Friday, January 2, 2009
Wild Card Weekend
The 2009 NFL Playoffs are here, and at this point it could be anybody's Super Bowl. The Giants, Titans, and Steelers seem to be the favorites, but there are plenty of worthy participants in this year's field of 12.
Atlanta at Arizona
At first glance this game seems like an easy one to pick. Atlanta has been one of the more consistent teams in the league this year, and their offense has been close to unstoppable. Arizona, conversely, struggled mightily in the second half of the season, and managed only three wins outside of their division. They are the most one-dimensional team in the league, and their high-powered passing attack will have to face John Abraham this week.
I'll admit, I'm not ready to predict that the Cardinals will win this game. But this could be a very close. Atlanta's defense is really bad. Yes, they can get after the quarterback sometimes, but they give up a lot of yards, and sometimes have had to rely on teams coughing up the ball to end drives. Kurt Warner has played plenty of playoffs games, and Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are ready to go. I think the Cardinals need to continue to give the ball to Edgerrin James, who has come back to life a little the last couple weeks.
Still, Atlanta can control the ball in this game, and assuming Matt Ryan doesn't fall apart, a turnover-free game should be enough for Atlanta to take this one. Falcons 34-28.
Indianapolis at San Diego
The Colts are the best team without a bye in these playoffs. But, they'll be playing on the road probably all the way through. I think this game has the biggest chance of being a blow-out. I see the Colts taking their time moving up and down the field, and their defense bending-but-not-breaking. It is hard not to go with Peyton Manning. Colts 27-13.
Baltimore at Miami
I love watching the Ravens play, and this should be a good match-up for their style of play. If there is one team that won't get flustered by the wild cat offense, it is the Ravens. That said, Miami is another team that has been pretty consistent all year, and always comes ready to play. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are not going to find much room against the Ravens defense, and Chad Pennington's floaty-but-accurate passes better be even sharper.
Baltimore struggled earlier this year against good teams because they weren't finishing games. They seem to have learned how to do that now. Ask Dallas. I see their running backs pounding the Dolphins defense. Ravens 20-13.
Philadelphia at Minnesota
The Vikings are one of the few teams in the NFL anymore that seems to have a legitimate home-field advantage. When the fans show up, the Metrodome is loud. The key to this game will be whether one or the other jumps out to a big lead. The Vikings haven't really fallen that far behind at all this year, but they play tight when behind. The Eagles have simply been awful when they are losing.
If Tarvaris Jackson can stay on his feet and find his check-downs, the Vikings might really surprise people on Sunday. The weirdest thing about this game is that the Eagles have become the "dark horse" of this year's playoffs. Every year one team gets a bunch of attention at the last minute, and everybody starts picking them. I'm not sure the Eagles deserve it. If their run-defense has a huge day, they will win. Otherwise, this is a toss-up. Vikings 24-21.
Hypothetical Playoff Predictions that will change with the outcome of this weekend's games
If all of my above picks are right (no chance), here is how I see the rest of the playoffs going:
AFC
The Ravens victory would force them to travel to Tennessee, and the Colts would take on Pittsburgh. I think that would set up a Steelers-Titans rematch in the AFC Championship, and the Steelers would win.
NFC
The six-seed Eagles would completely change the NFC if they got into the second round, but I don't think they will. So, I see Atlanta losing to New York, and Minnesota losing to Carolina. Then the Panthers would go to New York and win that rematch.
I guess at this point predicting the Steelers to beat the Panthers in the Super Bowl seems as safe as possible. That will change in about 48 hours.
Final Rankings
Here are the final NFC North rankings from the "experts". Notice that a few of them only ranked the playoff teams this way. As always, Detroit is #32 in every ranking.
Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-9
CBS Sports: MIN-10, CHI-18, G.B.-23
Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-8, CHI-11, G.B.-18
FOX Sports: MIN-10, CHI-14, G.B.-24
Don Banks (SI.com): MIN-11
Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-10
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