Week 8 Predictions

Houston at Buffalo

The weather is going to be a factor, but if Matt Schaub can avoid Jarius Byrd, the Texans should be OK.
Texans 24 Bills 16

Cleveland at Chicago

Coming off an embarrassing loss against Cincinnati, the Bears get a chance to right the ship. The Browns shouldn't present much of a problem.
Bears 27 Browns 17

Seattle at Dallas
With any luck, the Cowboys understand the importance of running the ball, especially since they do it as well as anybody. But, would we be shocked if they followed Tony Romo's huge game last week against Atlanta by ignoring the run? I still think they will win.
Cowboys 30 Seahawks 24

St. Louis at Detroit

The Rams get their first win of the season...maybe? The Lions cannot stop the pass, and Mar Bulger is capable of making big plays with his arm. I guess that's all I have to go on.
Rams 20 Lions 19

Denver at Baltimore
This is a great match-up. The Ravens are desperate for a win, and both teams are coming off their byes. Even though I think the Broncos are a very solid and balanced team, I think the Ravens will find a way to win (Joe Flacco).
Ravens 27 Broncos 24

San Francisco at Indianapolis

This might have been a chance to try an upset pick. But I just don't believe that the 49ers can keep the Colts offense at bay for more than a quarter or two.
Colts 28 49ers 14

Miami at NY Jets

I'm sure the Jets will come up with a better game plan this time around, and will do a better job against the Wildcat, but Mark Sanchez will hold them back.
Dolphins 31 Jets 20

NY Giants at Philadelphia

I like the Giants to hold off the Eagles offensive attack, and pull away late.
Giants 30 Eagles 20

Jacksonville at Tennessee

This is a hard one. Vince Young is finally starting. The Jaguars are terrible. The Titans are terrible...
Titans 20 Jaguars 13

Oakland at San Diego

Big day for Phillip Rivers.
Chargers 27 Raiders 7

Carolina at Arizona

This was a huge playoff game last season, when Jake Delhomme turned the ball over 45 times and the Cardinals crushed the Panthers. Kurt Warner is playing better, and the Cardinals defense has been surprisingly stingy lately.
Cardinals 24 Panthers 14

Minnesota at Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers will put up big numbers, and Brett Favre will have to lead the Vikings to a 4th quarter comeback.
Vikings 31 Packers 30

Atlanta at New Orleans
I've decided to stubborning pick against the Saints until I am finally right.
Falcons 27 Saints 21

Week 7 Picks Revisted

Packers 27 Browns 13
Packers 31 Browns 3
This was an incredible week for blowouts. I am going to be generous with the green here, even though I gave the Browns far more credit (which wasn't much) than they deserved.

Chargers 21 Chiefs 16
Chargers 37 Chiefs 7
I almost want to mark this was as red (for wrong). The Chiefs weren't pesky at all!

Colts 34 Rams 13
Colts 42 Rams 6

Vikings 28 Steelers 27
Steelers 27 Vikings 17
I got the Steelers score right at least! Pittsburgh's defense had a huge game, including a goal line stand that held Minnesota to three points, and two 4th quarter defensive touchdowns.

Patriots 31 Buccaneers 17
Patriots 35 Buccaneers 7
Hey, two in a row for the Pats. Blowouts I mean.

Texans 24 49ers 17
Texans 24 49ers 21
I certainly did not see San Francisco overcoming a 21-0 deficit, especially behind Alex Smith, but this is about as close to nailing a prediction as I can come.

Bills 17 Panthers 13
Bills 20 Panthers 9
Well, that's three greens in a row. The Bills did just as I expected: took advantage of Jake Delhomme, and chipped away on offense.

Jets 20 Raiders 12
Jets 38 Raiders 0
Again, one could argue that I got this one 'wrong.' I mean, sure, I picked the Jets to win, but 20-12 and 38-0 are miles apart.

Falcons 27 Cowboys 20
Cowboys 37 Falcons 21
Leaning on conventional Tony Romo-wisdom sunk me. He had one of his best games ever (maybe the best: 21 of 29, 311 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and 31 yards rushing), and Atlanta couldn't stay within striking distance.

Bengals 17 Bears 10
Bengals 45 Bears 10
I was mostly wrong. Who knew the Bengals would obliterate Chicago?

Dolphins 20 Saints 17
Saints 46 Dolphins 34
This pick looked dead-on for most of the game, even into the 4th quarter. But the Saints scored on their final four drives (24 points), and when Chad Henne had to start throwing, the Dolphins were done.

Giants 27 Cardinals 23
Cardinals 24 Giants 17
If you didn't know any better, you might think the Cardinals were the recent NFC Champion with a reputation for tough defense and grinding out wins playing in this game. Every time a play needed to be made, the Cardinals seemed to come up with something.

Eagles 30 Washington 17
Eagles 27 Washington 17
Oh, weird, that thing about being only three points off in the Houston-San Francisco game being my best pick ever...I guess it is tied now. Jason Campbell looked like he was following the direction of Jon Gruden and Ron Jawarski, who were in the Monday Night Football booth going on and on about how Campbell refuses to hang in the pocket, and has no confidence in his offensive line; every time they would bring it up, Campbell would take the next snap, drop back, and then tip-toe forward into the pocket and spike a short pass (off one foot) into the dirt in front of one of his receivers. Uck.

So, that's six of 13 in the green, and nine of 13 winners, plus two extremely close guesses on scores.

Week 7 Predictions

Green Bay @ Cleveland
The Browns are sick. I'm not sure it makes a difference whether they are sick or recovered or OK. Their only bet is too run the ball and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. Packers 27 Browns 13

San Diego @ Kansas City
The Chiefs will likely be pesky, but the Chargers are good enough to hold them off. It is always weird when great players of the near past (Ladainian Tomlinson) become sort of inconsequential. Chargers 21 Chiefs 16

Indianapolis @ St. Louis
The Rams really are not capable of staying with good teams. There is no reason why the Colts shouldn't blow them out. Colts 34 Rams 13

Minnesota @ Pittsburgh
I can't pick against the Vikings can I? I really think Ben Roethlisberger will have a big day. Plus, Pittsburgh is generally pretty clutch on offense in the 4th quarter. But, both defenses have struggled in 4th quarters this season, Brett Favre is as likely to throw the last touchdown in this game as Roethlisberger is. Vikings 28 Steelers 27

New England @ Tampa Bay
We've learned not to get caught up in the Patriots the last two seasons; they have had trouble maintaining momentum from week to week. But, if Brady is indeed 'back,' the Buccaneers are in trouble. Patriots 31 Buccaneers 17

San Francisco @ Houston
This could be another one of the Texans let downs. They have a knack for losing just when they appear to be on the cusp of a winning streak. The 49ers certainly will challenge them, but San Francisco can't really score. Texans 24 49ers 17

Buffalo @ Carolina
The Panthers finally won a couple, but they haven't looked good doing it. The Bills had six interceptions last week, and I expect a couple more against Jake Delhomme. Bills 17 Panthers 13

NY Jets @ Oakland
The Raiders inability to get into the end zone will sink them, even though Mark Sanchez will give them the ball a couple times. Jets 20 Raiders 12

Atlanta @ Dallas
The Cowboys and Falcons are somewhat similar teams, though the Falcons seem to play a little more consistently. Both can play decent defense at times, and both are capable of putting up a lot of points. I think the Falcons will keep up their level-headedness, and Tony Romo will blow it. Falcons 27 Cowboys 20

Chicago @ Cincinnati
The Bears are showing a startling ability to keep games extremely close, despite hardly ever scoring touchdowns. The Bengals defense didn't play well against Houston, but they should get a few chances to pick Jay Cutler off. Bengals 17 Bears 10

New Orleans @ Miami
It's time for me to pick a real upset. The Saints passing offense can be slowed down (two AFC East opponents have showed that), and the Dolphins are very good at keeping their offense on the field. If Drew Brees makes any mistakes, I think the Dolphins will capitalize. Dolphins 20 Saints 17

Arizona @ NY Giants
This one will come down to the Giants red zone defense. I see them forcing a lot of field goal attempts, and scoring just enough to take home the victory. Giants 27 Cardinals 23

Philadelphia @ Washington
The Eagles were embarrassed last week by the Raiders, but Washington probably won't present a similar road bump. More Todd Collins, please! Eagles 30 Washington 17

Week Six Predictions Revistited

Prediction: Bengals 23 Texans 13
Reality: Texans 28 Bengals 17
The Bengals defense couldn't slow down Matt Schaub. Although I like Carson Palmer and the Bengals offense, they don't score a ton of points.

Prediction: Packers 34 Lions 21
Reality: Packers 26 Lions 0
As expected, Aaron Rodgers had a huge game. Daunte Culpepper was hobbled, and the Lions offense was awful. The Packers managed only 3.6 yards per carry, and at one point in the 3rd quarter that number was close to 2.0. Whatever works.

Prediction: Vikings 27 Ravens 23
Reality: Vikings 33 Ravens 31
Well, both teams were able to throw. The Ravens just didn't start until the 4th quarter. An embarrassing near-collapse for the Vikings--they really need Antoine Winfield in the lineup.

Prediction: Giants 20 Saints 17
Reality: Saints 48 Giants 27
This was predicated on the thought that the Saints wouldn't be able to jump out to an early lead as they have against all of their opponents this year. That thought was wrong. The Giants scored a lot, but the Saints pretty much dominated.

Prediction: Steelers 31 Browns 6
Reality: Steelers 27 Browns 14
I can't give myself the green on this one. I predicted a blow-out. This was maybe a slow crushing at best.

Prediction: Panthers 19 Buccaneers 13
Reality: Panthers 28 Buccaneers 21
This game reaffirmed a few things: the Buccaneers are terrible; the Panthers are really bad; and Jake Delhomme is worse.

Prediction: Washington 24 Chiefs 21
Reality: Chiefs 14 Washington 6
I didn't have the guts to pick an 0-5 team. Washington is about as bad as a team can be at 2-4. Get a new owner, then a new coach.

Prediction: Jaguars 24 Rams 13
Reality: Jaguars 23 Rams 20 OT
The Rams actually led for a lot of this game. I'm sort of shocked by how many teams are just flat out terrible this year (including Jacksonville and St. Louis).

Prediction: Seahawks 28 Cardinals 21
Reality: Cardinals 27 Seahawks 3
This isn't the worst pick of the week, but probably the wrong-est. The Cardinals took it to the Seahawks from the opening drive, in Seattle.

Prediction: Eagles 34 Raiders 17
Reality: Raiders 13 Eagles 9
Again, not the worst pick ever. I don't think anybody picked Oakland in this one. Why do Donovan McNabb and the Eagles always turn in a couple horrendous games each year?

Prediction: Patriots 31 Titans 17
Reality: Patriots 59 Titans 0
Not hard to pick the winner here, but 59 points? The Patriots love the snow, and Tom Brady dominated. Maybe Jeff Fisher will get fired, and a team that I like will hire him...

Prediction: Jets 27 Bills 20
Reality: Bills 16 Jets 13 OT
Got this one wrong happily. Mark Sanchez is a really bad quarterback right now, and, frankly, is the Jets defense that scary?

Prediction: Falcons 30 Bears 24
Reality: Falcons 21 Bears 14
The Bears could have won. The Falcons defense isn't great, but they get the job done, and that is what matters. Matt Ryan will be the 'best quarterback in the league" at some point in his career.

Denver at San Diego
After watching the Broncos come back to beat the Patriots last week, I feel like they are more than for real--they are one of the better teams in the league. So, I will not begin picking them to win, and likely be wrong more than right.
Broncos 17 Chargers 16

Week Six Predictions

Houston at Cincinnati
As inconsistent as the Texans are, it is hard to pin down how they will play on the road against Cincinnati. I expect the Bengals to continue their stout defensive play, and to score enough on Houston's poor defense to win.
Bengals 23 Texans 13

Detroit at Green Bay
Although the Lions could score a lot in this game, that hasn't led to success for them so far this year. The Packers have to win this divisional home game, or else things could get pretty ugly for them. Most importantly, the Packers are better than the Lions, and should exploit a bad secondary.
Packers 34 Lions 21

Baltimore at Minnesota
If the Vikings can throw against Baltimore, they should win. If Baltimore can throw against Minnesota, they should win. My guess is that both quarterbacks (assuming the Ravens don't knock Brett Favre out) will have pretty good games. It's a toss up. I'm going with the Vikings great red zone defense.
Vikings 27 Ravens 23

NY Giants at New Orleans
The big question is whether the Giants can move the ball against a good defense. Or maybe the real question is whether the Saints actually have a good defense? We know the Giants do, and if the Saints are not able to jump out to an early lead, as they have all season, will the defense still look as dangerous? I think not. If this comes down to a physical, ball control, who-can-outlast-the-other type of game, I have to go with the Giants.
Giants 20 Saints 17

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Get one defender back, lose another. The Steelers really shouldn't have any trouble this week.
Steelers 31 Browns 6

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Although Tampa Bay is awful, and the Panthers could roll up a big win on Sunday, I think the Buccaneers will play OK at home, and keep it close.
Panthers 19 Buccaneers 13

Kansas City at Washington
A real head scratcher, here. Although Washington is the most unreliable team in the league (two years running), the Chiefs seem to only muster up that special bend-bend-bend-break style of keeping games close at home. So, I guess I have to pick Washington.
Washington 24 Chiefs 21

St. Louis at Jacksonville
If the Rams are going to win a game this year, Jacksonville seems like their best opportunity. The Rams played pretty decent run defense against Minnesota, so let's not assume Maurice Jones-Drew will have a huge day. Still, I think even Jacksonville's bad offense can move the ball against the Rams.
Jaguars 24 Rams 13

Arizona at Seattle
If this game was at Arizona, I might flip-flop. But the Seahawks have some confidence now with Matt Hasselbeck back in the lineup. And their defense isn't too bad.
Seahawks 28 Cardinals 21

Philadelphia at Oakland
Eagles 34 Raiders 17

Tennessee at New England
New England, at home, against an 0-5 team? Used to be automatic, but now the Patriots will have to work a little hard than we're used to--in order to win by double digits.
Patriots 31 Titans 17

Buffalo at NY Jets
I don't think the Bills will play a third consecutive awful game. They've shown year in and year out that one thing they are not is consistently good or bad. I think they will show up this week, and lose. I don't buy into the idea that Rex Ryan will light a fire under his team just because they lost one game.
Jets 27 Bills 20

Chicago at Atlanta
Last year the Bears shocked the Falcons by scoring late and seemingly stealing a win from the Falcons with under 30 seconds remaining. Then the Falcons hit a field goal as time expired in one of the wildest finishes of the 2008 season. This time, I think Atlanta plays a steadier game, and out duels Jay Cutler's Bears.
Falcons 30 Bears 24

Denver at San Diego
After watching the Broncos come back to beat the Patriots last week, I feel like they are more than for real--they are one of the better teams in the league. So, I will not begin picking them to win, and likely be wrong more than right.
Broncos 17 Chargers 16

Week 5 Ranks

1. Indianapolis: The Colts are playing too well right now and scoring too many points not to be first. Although the Titans do not represent a formidable challenge, the Colts have had a slightly tougher set of opponents than the Giants so far.
2. New York Giants: The Giants just wrapped up three blowouts of three of the worst teams in the NFL. They'll have to dial it up a notch this week against New Orleans.
3. Minnesota: Like New York, the Vikings have played some pretty light teams. The Ravens will not be an easy match-up for the Vikings.
4. New Orleans: The Saints look good even when they have the week off. Darren Sharper loves playing against Eli Manning.
5. Denver: The Broncos defense is really good. Josh McDaniels might be crazier than Mike Singletary in the heat of the moment (who wouldn't be after 4th down penalties extended a Patriots drive twice). Kyle Orton really is not that bad, Bears fans.
6. Atlanta: I thought they had some things to prove. Well, completely dominating the 49ers on both sides of the ball proves a lot.
7. Philadelphia: The Eagles have yet to be put to much of a test, but they are taking care of business.
8. Cincinnati: It is hard not to like a team that plays solid defense, forces turnovers, runs the ball well (Hi, again, Bears fans), and has a solid, experienced quarterback.
9. New England: With a 17-7 lead at halftime, you would expect the Patriots to win. Instead, they went scoreless the rest of the game and lost in overtime. I hesitate to drop the Pats down too far as losing to what is clearly a very good team in a very good game.
10. Baltimore: Two hard losses to two good teams. Add a third against the Vikings this week, and people can start sounding the alarm, but the Ravens are still pretty solid all around, and will be a tough out in the playoffs.
11. Pittsburgh: The Steelers may be a team to watch out for. They seem to be 'getting by' so far, but we know they are capable of playing a lot better than this, and when Troy Polamalu returns, they could start winning easy again.
12. Miami: After their 0-3 start, which included the loss of Chad Pennington forever, I was already writing off the Dolphins. But the fact is that the 'Wildcat' is a truly dynamic and effective offense in the hands of Ronnie Brown, and the Dolphins defense is pretty good too. I think they can win the AFC East this season.
13. New York Jets: After their 3-0 start, I was ready to write off the Jets. I think Mark Sanchez will be a good quarterback, but there is a lot missing right now. And did you see the Dolphins move the ball on Monday night? Wow.
14. San Diego: Like the Steelers, the Chargers almost look like they are biding their time. If they do ever get hot, the Broncos may be looking at another race for the AFC West down the stretch.
15. San Francisco: On the one hand, I don't think we can read too much into their horrible loss to Atlanta (at home). They are still 3-2 in a so-so division, and they still have a very good defense. On the other hand, it isn't (and wasn't) reasonable to have high hopes for a team with a barely-get-you-by quarterback and no other real scoring threat.
16. Chicago: The Bears have two tough road games coming next (at Atlanta and at Cincinnati). If they make it out of that 4-2, that's a huge victory.
17. Dallas: Another team sitting at 3-2 after sneaking past some bad teams. The Cowboys can't survive in the NFC East...unless they get back to running the ball, and find a way to win close games against quality teams (the Chiefs DO NOT count, overtime or not).
18. Green Bay: The Packers have a very good chance to be 4-2--they face Detroit at home and travel to Cleveland--heading into the big Favor rematch at Lambeau field in Week 8. The Packers aren't good enough to look past the Browns and Lions, but they are certainly good enough to beat both easily.
19. Arizona: A huge win over Houston keeps them alive, and the rest of the NFC West isn't looking that hot.
20. Seattle: With Matt Hasselbeck in the line-up, the NFC West becomes a three-team race.
21. Houston: The Texans did their best to get back into a game that saw them fall 21 points behind in the first half, but Matt Schaub's 4th quarter interception sunk them.
22. Jacksonville: I guess that two-game winning streak didn't mean much. What a horrible loss to Seattle (41-0).
23. Carolina: Down 17-2, the Panthers came back to beat Washington. Atlanta and New Orleans will be very tough to catch.
24. Detroit: 24 looks high for a 1-4 team, but the Lions are playing better than those below. They really made Pittsburgh work, and I expect the same in Green Bay this week, where Calvin Johnson should be able to take advantage of the Packers new zone defense, if he is healthy.
25. Washington: Washington is strange: If I could, I would rank them last. Yes, these other seven teams are worse, but Washington just seems like a complete waste this year. Todd Collins should get a chance at quarterback, and I'm not joking.
26. Buffalo: If they can trade Terrell Owens for anything, they should. I wish putting the back-up quarterback in could spark this team, but Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't present an improvement over Trent Edwards in any area.
27. Tennessee: Like Washington, the Titans are sort of un-rankable. They are bad, that is for sure.
28. Kansas City: Like last year, the Chiefs are fighters if nothing else. They may lose every game this year, but the first half of each game is always interesting.
29. Oakland: Yes, they beat Kansas City. Whatever.
30. Cleveland: Yes, they beat Buffalo. Whatever.
31. Tampa Bay: Yes, they... No, they are just horrible.
32. St. Louis

The Vikings Passing Attack Comes Alive

With the Vikings offense playing as well as it has in years, I thought it would be interesting to compare how the passing game has fared through five games the last five seasons (or, essentially, the five years since Daunte Culpepper's last good season, 2004). With help from Pro-Football-Reference, I put together the following:

In 2005, Culpepper had an awful first five (which turned into seven) games before eventually blowing out his knee against Carolina in Week 8. After five games, Minnesota was 1-4, with losses of 37-8 to the Bengals, 30-10 to the Falcons, and 28-3 at the hands of the Bears (the week of the 'Love Boat' scandal). Culpepper was the main culprit in this dismal start. His 12 interceptions and three lost fumbles amounted to an average of three turnovers a game. But, since the Vikings were down and passing a lot, the receptions were high.

2005	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Culpepper	5	181	113	62.7	1256	4	12	62.8
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Wiggins	5	26	203	7.8	0
Taylor	5	20	252	12.6	2
Moore	5	14	125	8.9	0
Williamson	5	13	201	15.5	2
Robinson	5	12	200	16.7	0

Brad Johnson took over for Culpepper after his 2005 injury and almost led the Vikings to the playoffs. He won the job in 2006 without a challenge, and Johnson and rookie coach Brad Childress led the Vikings to a 3-2 record. Again, the Vikings couldn't manage to score touchdowns, and Johnson had more interceptions than scores. Travis Taylor and Troy Williamson led the team with a modest 18 catches each, but Jermaine Wiggins and Chester Taylor had 17 each, keeping the passing game on about the same pace as in 2005.

2006	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Johnson	5	170	107	62.9	1128	3	4	78.3
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
T. Taylor	5	18	243	13.5	1
Williamson	5	18	256	14.2	0
C. Taylor	5	17	118	609	0
Wiggins	5	17	143	8.4	0
Moore	5	13	90	6.9	0

The 2006 season ended miserably, with rookie Tarvaris Jackson having to playing all four December games (starting two). Jackson was the Vikings starter on opening day in 2007, but only made it two games before being knocked out with an injury. Kelly Holcomb started in games against the Chiefs and Packers, both losses, before Jackson returned in Week 6 and 'led' the team to a 34-31 victory over the Bears at Soldier Field (actually, Adrian Peterson had touchdown runs of 67, 73, and 35 yards; Jackson was 9 of 23 for 136 yards and one touchdown).

The 2-3 Vikings had completed only 77 passes (Brooks Bollinger was 3 out of 4), and Bobby Wade was the only player with more than 11 catches. Again, the Vikings had thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes (3 to 6).

2007	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Jackson	3	79	39	49.4	465	2	5	49.8
Holcomb	2	67	35	52.2	427	1	1	70.9
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Wade	5	18	203	11.3	0
Rice	5	11	119	10.8	1
Peterson	5	10	175	17.5	1
Shiancoe	5	9	107	11.9	0
Williamson	4	8	134	16.8	1

Again in 2008 the Vikings made a quarterback change within the first month of the season. This time, it was not due to injury, but instead, Jackson's dismal play in the Vikings Week 1 and 2 losses. Gus Frerotte started in Week 3, holding the team team steady through a 20-10 victory over Carolina. After three Frerotte starts, Minnesota was 2-3 (with a third win on the way against Detriot), and, for the first time since Daunte Culpepper's historic 2004 season, they hadn't thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes: Jackson and Frerotte had combined for three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Meanwhile, Bobby Wade and Bernard Berrian were off to quick starts, despite missing one game each, and Visanthe Shiancoe, with two touchdown catches, looked like he was overcoming a 2007 season full of drops.

2008	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Frerotte	3	107	60	56.1	316	2	2	74.2
Jackson	3	60	31	51.7	692	1	1	65.7
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Wade	4	21	216	10.3	0
Berrian	4	17	305	17.9	1
Shiancoe	5	12	145	12.1	2
Peterson	5	10	61	6.1	0
Taylor	5	9	55	6.1	0

Of course, the below 2009 stats should speak for themselves, especially the touchdowns. The receptions column actually is roughly the same, but the way Favre is spreading the ball around is impressive, and has been a huge factor in the Vikings 5-0 start. Though difficult to quantify, the effect of keeping Adrian Peterson out of the top five receivers on the team should be noted. If the Vikings can continue to have this much success throwing the ball without having to increase Peterson's touches, that should bode well for the rest of the season. (I am among those who thinks Taylor should be getting more carries, but it is hard to argue against giving the ball to the best player in the NFL.)

Favre's passer rating is 26 points higher than the second best five-game mark in the last five years (Johnson in 2006), and his two interceptions are the lowest for the Vikings during the last five years. And hey, just for good measure, Tarvaris Jackson is 4 for 5 for 82 yards, maybe the best five-pass stretch of his career.

2009	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Favre	5	149	103	69.1	1069	9	2	104.1
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Taylor	5	21	187	8.9	0
Berrian	4	19	216	11.4	1
Harvin	5	18	233	12.9	2
Rice	5	17	233	13.7	2
Shiancoe	5	13	116	8.9	3

Lastly, I thought it would be interesting to see how Brent has done in his first five games each of the last five seasons. Favre has attempted far fewer passes in his last two seasons through five games than he did in the previous three seasons as a Packer. Notice that as a Jet and Viking, Favre's passer rating is over 100 through five games, which he didn't do from 2005-07 with Green Bay.

	G	W-L	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
2005	5	1-4	186	120	64.5	1256	12	8	87.6
2006	5	1-4	203	115	56.7	1275	7	5	76.7
2007	5	4-1	210	141	67.1	1527	9	4	94.7
2008	5	3-2	157	112	71.3	1124	13	6	103
2009	5	5-0	149	103	69.1	1069	9	2	104.1

Week 5 Predictions Revisited

I decided it is time to follow up on these random, poorly considered predictions. I even made a color-code. Red means I was flat wrong, orange means I got the winner, but the score was a bit off, and green means I was mostly right. With Week 5 complete, I have six out of 14 in the green and four more orange. The four red doesn't look very good.

Prediction: Bills 23 Browns 16
Reality: Browns 6 Bills 3
I figured the Bills would be able to score. They didn't. Another special teams blunder finally sunk them, but with or without it, this was an awful day.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 Chiefs 13
Reality: Cowboys 26 Chiefs 20 OT
This game was a little closer than expected, though I didn't see the Chiefs taking it into overtime. The Cowboys have to be a little worried about how difficult it has been to get to 3-2. Side note: The Chiefs helmets were really cool. Apparently, that was the first time they have worn anything but their normal helmets since the mid-1970s. Wow.

Prediction: Vikings 30 Rams 24
Reality: 38-10
I underestimated how bad the Rams could be. They moved the ball fairly easily, but committed three turnovers in the red zone. the Vikings got a lot of breaks in this game; it could have been a lot closer.

Prediction: Giants 27 Raiders 14
Reality: Giants 44-7
OK, I didn't get the full blowout correct. I figured that with Eli Manning playing hurt the Giants would scale it back a little. Wrong.

Prediction: Eagles 38 Buccaneers 17
Reality: Eagles 33 Buccaneers 14
This one went almost exactly as expected. Can't give myself much credit, I think everybody got this one right.

Prediction: Steeler 31 Lions 24
Reality: Steelers 28 Lions 20
The Lions offense can move the ball, and they've proved that every game so far. Unfortunately, when they needed a big play, Daunte Culpepper was sacked three plays in a row.

Prediction: Panthers 19 Washington 13
Reality: Panthers 20 Washington 17
To nobody's surprise, this was an ugly game. No stats really pop out, but once again Jason Campbell can't get the win.

Prediction: Ravens 24 Bengals 14
Reality: Bengals 17 Ravens 14
The Bengals are good. Cedric Benson is having a very good season. The Ravens are reeling a little, but Minnesota should expect a real fight next week.

Prediction: 49ers 17 Falcons 7
Reality: Falcons 45 49ers 10
Probably my worst pick of the week. I was completely wrong about the 49ers defense. They gave up a bunch of big plays, and the rest of the team kept coughing up the ball.

Prediction: Seahawks 24 Jaguars 20
Reality: Seahawks 41 Jaguars 0
It turns out that the Jaguars went very quietly. What a difference Matt Hasselbeck makes. None of the running backs had a big day, but the committee produced a nice game.

Prediction: Cardinals 34 Texans 28
Reality: Cardinals 28 Texans 21.
After jumping out to a 21-0 lead, the Cardinals needed an interception for a touchdown and a goal line stand with under a minute to pull this off. Both offenses did their part, but Matt Schaub made the error that cost the Texans.

Prediction: Patriots 20 Broncos 6
Reality: Broncos 20 Patriots 17 OT
This one looked good at halftime, with the Pats leading 17-7. Then the Broncos shut them out in the second half and Kyle Orton completed a lot (35 for the game) passes. Yep, they're for real.

Prediction: Colts 27 Titans 13
Reality: Colts 31 Titans 9
I'm leaving this one in the orangecategory simply because I really didn't think it would be a blow out. I thought the Titans would keep it close into the 4th quarter before the Colts closed the door.

Prediction: Dolphins 16 Jets 13
Reality: Dolphins 31 Jets 27
A half hour before the game started, I was listening to Cris Carter go on about how the Jets would stop the Wildcat and how Rex Ryan proved he had a scheme for it last year, when the Ravens crushed the Dolphins in the opening round of the playoffs. Well, he was wrong. The Dolphins are the only team so far who has consistently moved the ball against the Jets, and they did it, surprise, with the Wildcat. If Chad Henne continues to build on what he has done in his first two starts, the Dolphins may have the most promising young quarterback in the league.

Week 5

Cleveland at Buffalo
The Bills have to win this week to hold on to any hope. At home against the Browns, they should be OK. Marshawn Lynch didn't look excellent, but he adds another threat to the Bills offense. Bills 23 Browns 16

Dallas at Kansas City: One of this year's AFL 50th Anniversary games. The Chiefs will be wearing throwback uniforms from when they were the...Dallas Texans. Aside from the fact that the Cowboys, who apparently will be wearing their regular get-up, were never in the AFL (not to mentioned that the Chiefs will be playing a home game with the state of Texas on their heads--against the Dallas Cowboys), I think these throwback games are pretty cool. I guess Tony Romo will play OK. Cowboys 27 Chiefs 13.

Minnesota at St. Louis
No team in the last ten years has been worse at taking care of bad teams than the Vikings. Many think this is a prime spot for the Vikings to collapse (Michael Silver among them, scroll down). I don't think the Vikings will crush the Rams, as they should, but they will win. Vikings 30 Rams 24.

Oakland at NY Giants
I really don't think Eli Manning should play in this game. A few reasons: the inflamed tissue in his right foot; the Giants 4-0 record; the site of the game; the fact that the Raiders are awful. Give him some time off. Let that foot heal a little. Beat the Raiders by ten instead of 20. OK, fine, so no win is guaranteed in the NFL. I don't care, sit him. Giants 27 Raiders 14.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
With or without Donovan McNabb, this should be a rout. Eagles 38 Buccaneers 17.

Pittsburgh at Detroit
Despite the Chargers 4th quarter comeback, Pittsburgh Sunday night win was pretty impressive. I actually think Daunte Culpepper can make some plays for the Lions, but I don't think they can win this game. Steeler 31 Lions 24.

Washington at Carolina
As bad as Carolina has played, what a great sight it must be to see Washington in town. Unless Jason Campbell plays like Mark Rypien, Washington is never a safe pick. Panthers 19 Washington 13.

Cincinnati at Baltimore
Maybe the best game of the week, especially if you like defense. Cincinnati did a good job against Gren Bay and Pittsburgh, but the Ravens (weird) bring a more balanced attack on offense. In this match up of strength vs. strength, I think all of Baltimore's strengths are stronger than Cincinnati's. Ravens 24 Bengals 14.

Atlanta at San Francisco
Atlanta is an interesting team. They are balanced on offense, and seem to come to play every single week. But San Francisco's defense will shut them down, and I don't think there is a reliable Plan B in Atlanta. 49ers 17 Falcons 7.

Jacksonville at Seattle
Matt Hasselbeck pretty much has to play this week. If Seattle falls to 1-4...well, we know what that means. Jacksonville is 2-2 (somehow), and won't go quietly. Seahawks 24 Jaguars 20.

Houston at Arizona
Which offense will take advantage of which defense? Maybe both, but, at home, the Cardinals contained the Colts for a little while, and they should move the ball fairly easily against Houston's defense. Cardinals 34 Texans 28.

New England at Denver
This another AFL Anniversary game. The Patriots will wear the road version of the 'Pat Patriot' uniforms we saw on Monday Night Football in Week 1. The Broncos will wear these. I think, like most, that the Broncos magical ride will begin a slow and painful descent this week. Patriots 20 Broncos 6.

Indianapolis at Tennessee
This was supposed to be a compelling game, because the Titans weren't supposed to be 0-4. It could still be a good game, if the Tennessee defense can get things straight. Colts 27 Titans 13.

NY Jets at Miami
The other Jets-Dolphins game will feature the AFL throwbacks, so I guess this one is just about football. I'm not sold on the Dolphins being out of it yet. If their wildcat and run-oriented offense can offset some of the Jets blitzing success, they might out score the inconsistent Jets offense. Dolphins 16 Jets 13.

Week 4 Rankings

1. New York Giants: I always like to give good teams credit for really crushing bad teams. It is so horrible when they don't, I feel like the Giants should get at least a nod for dominating the Buccaneers and Chiefs so thoroughly.
2. Indianapolis: The Colts offense is scary.
3. Minnesota: The Vikings didn't play their best defensive game, but they made so many big plays that the Packers offense looked a lot worse than the numbers show.
4. New Orleans: The Saints have shown they can way all different ways: With huge offense in Weeks 1 and 2, with stifling defense against Buffalo, and with defensive touchdowns against the Jets.
5. New England: Yeah, they're still pretty good. Watch out AFC East.
6. Baltimore: The Ravens won't lose many this season.
7. New York Jets: Their defense is outrageous right now. I'm not sure anybody could have success against them, maybe not even the Colts.
8. Philadelphia: Donovan McNabb should settle things down in Philly, if he stays healthy.
9. San Francisco: That was one dominating performance for San Francisco. Shaun Hill refuses to make mistakes.
10. Atlanta: The Falcons still have a lot to prove.
11. Denver: How did this defense get so much better. Sure, they have played an easy schedule, but they are dominating.
12. Cincinnati: Not pretty, but you have to like where the Bengals are sitting right now (tied for first place)
13. Pittsburgh: A horrible 4th quarter, but a lot of be encouraged by.
14. San Diego: A valiant comeback, but, really, Pittsburgh crushed them.
15. Chicago: They gave up a lot of points, but they are proving to be a big-play threat.
16. Green Bay: What happened to running the ball?
17. Dallas: What happened to running the ball?
18. Houston: Houston is still that team that can only win against bad opponents.
19. Arizona: The bye week was their best yet.
20. Miami: The Dolphins moved the ball very easily against the Bills. 1-3 is not enough to give up on Miami just yet.
21. Jacksonville: 2-2? Whatever works.
22. Washington: Jason Campbell trading interceptions for wins? I guess he is trying something new.
23. Buffalo: Terrell Owens is having no effect; partially because he drops a lot of passes, and partially because Trent Edwards is really struggling. It looks like Edwards still has good chemistry with Lee Evans though.
24. Seattle: Without Matt Hasselbeck, they are simply not very good.
25. Carolina: They didn't get a chance to lose this week.
26. Detroit: Calvin Johnson can be unstoppable at times, and is reason alone why no team should look forward to playing the Lions.
27. Tennessee: I suppose it is time to see what Vince Young can do, but the 2009 season is already lost
28. Oakland: Again, JaMarcus Russell is not a good quarterback right now.
29. Tampa Bay: If anybody can make you look not so bad, it is Washington.
30. Kansas City: They are over matched in almost every game they play.
31. Cleveland: They got within seven seconds of their first...non-loss. Better luck next time!
32. St. Louis

Predicting Week 4

Why are there bye weeks already in Week 4? They shouldn't start until at least Week 6.


Detroit at Chicago
With a win and a Packers loss, the Lions could be tied for second place in the NFC North at the end of Week 4. That would still be last place in the division, but how great would that feel for a team that has been dead last since...what feels like forever. If the Bears on-and-off run defense is off this week, the Lions might win this one. I like Jay Cutler to keep the turnovers down and have another solid 4th quarter. Bears 20 Lions 15.

Cincinnati at Cleveland
The Bengals defense is looking tough, and the Browns are awful. Derek Anderson is back under center, but that won't be enough. Bengals 20 Browns 6.

Seattle at Indianapolis
The Seahawks have a strange advantage over many NFL teams. Because Matt Hasselbeck has missed so many games the last couple years, Seneca Wallace has played a lot. They are one of the few teams that isn't doomed when the second quarterback has to start. Still, the Colts are home are almost a lock against a team like Seattle, Hasselbeck or not. Colts 31 Seahawks 20.

NY Giants at Kansas City
The Giants dominated an awful Tampa Bay team last week, and should follow the same script in Kansas City. If they do, they'll win easy. Remember Larry Johnson? Giants 28 Chiefs 13

Baltimore at New England
Baltimore is playing the best football of any team in the NFL. New England has sneeked away from three so-so games with a 2-1 record. This one will probably come down to whether Joe Flacco is successful throwing the ball; I don't think Flacco will be successful throwing the ball. Patriots 20 Ravens 17.

Tampa Bay at Washington
This is one ugly matchup. Tampa Bay is arguably the worst team in the league, and Washington plays like they can't wait for games to be over. Washington 17 Buccaneers 9.

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Tennessee absolutely has to win this week. That alone doesn't mean they will. Kerry Collins need to go back managing games--and doing it well--before Tennessee can turn this season around. Titans 30 Jaguars 17.

Oakland at Houston
Houston as been all over the place through three weeks. The Raiders have mostly just been bad. I'll assume that Matt Schaub will have a decent game. Texans 24 Raiders 10.

NY Jets at New Orleans
This is a huge game for two 3-0 teams. The Jets will have to "prove it" all season long; nobody is going to give them the benefit of the doubt with a rookie quarterback. If Drew Brees can beat the blitz, this will get ugly. The Saints defense is good enough to keep the Jets offense in check. Saints 28 Jets 16.

Buffalo at Miami
Chad Henne strikes fear into the hearts of nobody. Buffalo's pass rush has been very good, and now they will have two very good running backs to help Trent Edwards. Bills 27 Dolphins 20.

St. Louis at San Francisco
The 49ers are going to be talked about a lot in the next few seasons. They will likely take over the "team that is just a quarterback away." I like their run defense, I like their secondary, and obviously Patrick Willis is amazing. This is used to be a great rivalry, but it has been too long since both reams were relevant at the same time. 49ers 21 Rams 7.

Dallas at Denver
Denver may be a mirage right now, but Dallas can't be counted on for anything. Sure, their Monday night victory over Carolina was nice, but we can't be too quick to forget their Sunday night loss to the Giants in Week 2. Dallas tends to drift back towards that Week 2 team, the one that can score a lot, but not when they need to, and gives up way too many yards and points. If they keep running like they have been, maybe they can smooth out the wild inconsistency. Cowboys 31 Broncos 21.

San Diego at Pittsburgh
It's official. Losing Troy Polamalu was huge. With a defense as good as they've been, one wouldn't think they would lose games with Polamalu out. The Chargers might be better than I give them credit for. We'll see. Chargers 27 Steelers 17.

Green Bay at Minnesota
Forget all the Favre crap. This would have been a big either way. The Vikings have a chance to go to 4-0 and 2-0 against the NFC North. If the Packers 3-4 is effective against Adrian Peterson, they will win. Vikings 30 Packers 27.