Vikings Defense: Tice vs Childress

Here are some comparisons between the Vikings defense of the last three years (2006-2008) and the Vikings defense in the three years before Brad Childress took over (2003-2005). (Mike Tice was also the coach in 2002, but I excluded that year to keep it at three years each. Therefore, it is less a comparison of the two coaches as a comparison between Childress and where he took off from.) The Vikings were a combined 26-22 in the three years before Childress. With him as head coach, they are 24-24. They made one playoff appearance in each stretch.

Against the run, the Vikings defense has improved by leaps and bounds. This is well-documented. In the final three Tice seasons the team gave up 4.46 ypr, and 119 ypg. In the three Childress years those numbers have gone down to 3.09 and 70.8, respectively. That is enormous improvement. In the final three Tice seasons the Vikings gave up 51 rushing touchdowns. Childress' teams have given up just 26. They have also forced 22 more fumbles and recovered 14 more. Pretty incredible difference. Pat Williams played just one season with Mike Tice as head coach (the team was 19th against the run, and gave up 4 ypr in 2005). That season, neither Ben Leber or Chad Greenway were on the team and E.J. Henderson was not yet a starter.

The passing numbers are a little less encouraging. Completion percentage has gone up from 61.3 to 61.6. Passing yards allowed per game has gone up from 219.1 to 239.4. Yards per play has gone down. Touchdowns have gone down from 65 to 52. Interceptions and sacks have both gone down. Basically, things are about the same against the pass. But, it bears noting that in 2008 the Vikings improved in basically ever single pass defense statistic except interceptions.

The most important differenc is in 3rd down percentage. From 2003-2005 Minnesota allowed 3rd down conversions 42.6% of the time. Childress' defenses give them up just 36.2% of the time, and were 4th in the league this year. 4th down conversions have also improved. 

Most appalling are the penalty numbers. In Mike Tice's second season, 2003, Minnesota did OK with penalties, committing 90 for 720 yards. Since then the team has committed at least 109 every season. To show how much penalties have gone down league-wide, the Vikings committed 110 in 2004 and were ranked 15th in the league. This season they committed 109 and were ranked 29th. 

How they score on us

After discovering the official gamebooks for each game on NFL.com, I did a little research. The game book basically is a collection of every single piece of official information from an NFL game. It includes drive charts, final statistics, and a play-by-play of the game, among other things. I'll be referring to this from now on, part of my statistical obsession.

Time of Possession

The Vikings have won time of possession in six of nine games. In those six games, they are 3-3, and all three wins came at home. Interestingly, Minnesota is 2-1 when they don't control the ball. 

The second quarter has been a weird one for the Vikings. Opponents have controlled the ball for 10 more minutes in the 2nd. But, the Vikings have outscored teams 67-46. That doesn't seem to line up. It evens out. In the third quarter, Minnesota has held the ball 14 minutes longer than opponents but have been outscored 66-37. The main reason for this? The following scores have occurred in the 3rd quarter of Viking games this season:

Week 1: Will Blackmon returns a punt 76 yards for a touchdown. In this quarter Minnesota held the ball for 12:42 and managed just a field goal.

Week 5: Reggie Bush returns a punt 71 yards for a touchdown. Minnesota won time of possession in this quarter also (a modest 8:20-6:40), but did not score.

Week 7: Chicago pulls out three 20-yard-plus plays, including a 51-yard touchdown pass to Marty Booker.

Week 10: Green Bay gets two return touchdowns in the third quarter. First, Nick Collins returned a Gus Frerotte interception 59 yards for a score. A few minutes later, Will Blackmon again returned a punt for a touchdown against Minnesota, this time 65 yards. The Vikings held the ball for 11:12, and were outscored 14-7.

If nothing else, these facts are weird. The Vikings are making things hard on themselves. 

Opponents scoring drives

These numbers are less telling, but equal head scratchers. Here is how teams are scoring against the Vikings:

As a team, Minnesota has given up 38 scores this season. 25 touchdowns, 13 field goals.

8 touchdowns have come on run plays, 9 on pass plays and 8 more on returns. The returns: 4 punts, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble, 1 blocked punt.

10 opponents scoring drives have started from midfield or Vikings territory. Amazingly, Minnesota has managed to give opponents the ball at their own 6-yard line twice. Both times touchdowns were scored. The longest drives given up for scores are two 80-yarders (Colts, Bears), both after touchbacks. 

In Week 10 Green Bay scored all of their non-return points (a touchdown and two field goals) after starting in Minnesota territory.

These stats are just odd. But they don't really tell us that much about the Vikings defense, good or bad. They do confirm one thing: field position is huge in the NFL, as if we needed to be told that.