1. Baltimore: The Ravens are suddenly a scoring machine, on offense. The defense may not be as nasty as we are used to, but it doesn't matter so far.
2. New York Giants: The Giants are 2-0 in the NFC East and dominated the Buccaneers this week.
3. Indianapolis: With Payton Manning around, the Colts can beat anybody.
4. Minnesota: It looks like the run defense will be OK, but is it really possible that Minnesota hasn't fixed their special teams problems?
5. New York Jets: Mark Sanchez is doing better than anybody could have expected, but their defense is driving them.
6. New Orleans: Nine passing touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 2, and zero against the Bills in Week 3. The 27-7 win was not as impressive as the score, but 3-0 is 3-0.
7. Philadelphia: Apparently Philadelphia is the big play team this year. Kevin Kolb is filling in nicely for Donovan McNabb.
8. San Francisco: The 49ers defense will keep them in contention all season, and Shaun Hill is exactly the game manager they need right now.
9. New England: We saw that old will to win again this week at home against Atlanta. Tom Brady is still working himself back to form.
10. Atlanta: There were a couple of bad breaks for the Falcons in New England, but they didn't look like an elite team last week. They are close though.
11. San Diego: For as inconsistent as the Chargers can be, overall they look solid.
12. Denver: The Broncos have the number 1 defense in the NFL. Unbelievable.
13. Cincinnati: The Bengals defense is really tough. Add a competent quarterback and Cedric Benson to the fold, and you have a contender.
14. Dallas: The Cowboys lead the league in rushing. That's probably the best way to keep Tony Romo from messing things up.
15. Green Bay: The Packers are an interesting mix of good and bad. They throw as good as anybody, and can't run. They force a lot of turnovers on defense, and give up a lot of yards. So far the good is outweighing the bad.
16. Chicago: Jay Cutler has settled in a little, but is tied for second-most turnovers in the league with six.
17. Pittsburgh: Super Bowl hangover, or whatever.
18. Arizona: Maybe a worse Super Bowl hangover. Kurt Warner got beat up last week.
19. Seattle: Luckily for the Seahawks, uniforms don't count in the standings. Seneca Wallace is a solid back-up, but they are better off when he is on the sideline.
20. Buffalo: Terrell Owens is doing nothing. At all. Trent Edwards has to play better for the Bills to win.
21. Jacksonville: Who knows what to think about the Jags? The 'team-most-likely-to-be-contracted' wins a big division game to pull to 1-2.
22. Houston: It turns out that the Texans do not have it figured out this season.
23. Tennessee: The Titans are better than their 0-3 record, and I wouldn't write them off yet. Almost, but not yet.
24. Miami: Like Tennessee, they are better than their 0-3 record. But now Chad Pennington is out for the year (maybe forever), and Tyler Thigpen could be starting in a few weeks. Maybe next year...
25. Carolina: Tempted to put Carolina even lower, but they could still win a few games this year, if Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith stop sabotaging them.
26. Detroit: They are in the 20s! The Lions run the ball pretty well, and if they beat Chicago this week, who knows where the 2009 season could go! ...er...
27. Washington: Jason Campbell might not ever figure it out, though he had a whole lot of yards in Detroit.
28. Oakland: JaMarcus Russell is not going to be a good quarterback for the Raiders. Probably not for anybody.
29. Kansas City: I'm not sure when it is going to get any better for the Chiefs.
30. St. Louis: With Kyle Boller, the Rams actually staged a mini-comeback, getting with in a touchdown of Green Bay after falling behind 16-0 early. That count's as a 'sign of life' for this team.
31. Tampa Bay: The Bucs didn't get a first down until the 3rd quarter, and at one point in the 4th they had 30 net yards. Those are numbers that are usually found in high school football games.
32. Cleveland: This year's Browns may be worse than the 1999 expansion team.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Week 2 "Rankings"
This early in the season rankings just don't work. It is near-impossible attach a meaningful number in front of every team. So, I copped out and put them into equally meaningless categories.
These teams really should make the playoffs:
Atlanta: A pretty solid team all around, they don't have to lean to heavily on any part of the team. If they continue to hold serve, I like them to finish with double-digit wins.
Baltimore: Baltimore suddenly is not just a defensive team. They have score 38 and 31 so far, and the defense is just fine.
Indianapolis: The Colts are still pretty good. The offense will never get completely shut down this year.
New Orleans: Right now they are following that old super-offense path: Score an outrageous amount of points, and give your defense free rein to take a lot of chances with a lead.
New York Giants: Eli Manning may not be pretty, but he does a bit of his brother's winning streak in him. The Giants are still solid across the board, and it is hard to imagine them not at least grabbing a wildcard spot, even this early in the season.
I'll believe it when their 12-4 and hosting a playoff game, but until then...
Minnesota: It's still not clear if Brett Favre can make plays downfield. And where has that vaunted run defense been so far?
New York Jets: Is Mark Sanchez going to go down the Matt Ryan path this season? What happens when he falters?
Pittsburgh: Hard to believe that they lost to the Bears.
New England: Why are they passing so much? Until Tom Brady starts throwing more accurately, they are definitely beatable.
San Francisco: What will they do when somebody finally slows down Frank Gore? I'm not sure they have a passing game that get them to the playoffs.
Philadelphia: The longer McNabb is out, the further they get from the top of the NFC East.
Need Work:
Arizona: Kurt Warner had an amazing day against the Jaguars, but the Cardinals are still the same old from what we can tell so far.
Buffalo: The Bills defense looks good so far, especially against the run. The Saints will test them, but not many defenses are going to stop the Saints this year. The true test will be whether Trent Edwards and the offense has success against the so-so Saints defense.
Chicago: Jay Cutler has shown his two main traits: He can lose a game by himself, and win a game by himself.
Cincinnati:The Bengals defense is good, but it might need to be great to get this team into the playoffs.
Dallas: The Cowboys responded well to most of what they saw from the Giants this week, but Tony Romo has to be smarter with the ball, and that will be the deciding factor for Dallas this year.
Green Bay: Scoring on defense is great, but it doesn't do much good when you can't stop the run and give up 31 points. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is getting hit, a lot.
Houston: Well, the offense isn't dead after all. The defense needs to play better against the run, but the Texans could still challenge the Colts this year.
San Diego: Inconsistency is their calling card.
Seattle: Without Matt Hasselbeck... well, they are not very good.
Tennessee: 0-2 already, and probably not thrilled to see that the Colts are still pretty good.
Teams that probably won't hang around past November, but aren't finished yet:
Carolina: An 0-2 start looks a lot worse when New Orleans and Atlanta are already 2-0 (one win against the Panthers). The worst part is that the Panthers don't really match up well with either of those teams, and could get swept by both.
Denver: The 2-0 start is nice, and San Diego doesn't look all that scary, but the Broncos will have to play a couple of good teams, and Oakland and Kansas City aren't pushovers for Denver anymore.
Miami: 0-2 in the AFC East is almost a deathknell. The Dolphins will have to do very well in their division schedule to catch up.
Oakland: JaMarcus Russell isn't very good.
Washington: They just can't seem to play full games, and sometimes the simplest things go awry.
Teams that I'm pretty sure are already finished:
Cleveland: No offense, no defense. Their return team is pretty good though.
Detroit: I have tried not to say anything about the Lions for a while now, but they are finally improving. Kevin Jones is a solid running back and their defense is a little better.
Jacksonville: The Jaguars can't throw the ball enough to make their offense a even a small threat, and their defense isn't that good either.
Kansas City: The Chiefs are still a long ways off. They just don't have the players right now.
St. Louis: Worst team in the NFL.
Tampa Bay: The Bucs defense is actually not horrible. Byron Leftwich probably won't start this entire season.
These teams really should make the playoffs:
Atlanta: A pretty solid team all around, they don't have to lean to heavily on any part of the team. If they continue to hold serve, I like them to finish with double-digit wins.
Baltimore: Baltimore suddenly is not just a defensive team. They have score 38 and 31 so far, and the defense is just fine.
Indianapolis: The Colts are still pretty good. The offense will never get completely shut down this year.
New Orleans: Right now they are following that old super-offense path: Score an outrageous amount of points, and give your defense free rein to take a lot of chances with a lead.
New York Giants: Eli Manning may not be pretty, but he does a bit of his brother's winning streak in him. The Giants are still solid across the board, and it is hard to imagine them not at least grabbing a wildcard spot, even this early in the season.
I'll believe it when their 12-4 and hosting a playoff game, but until then...
Minnesota: It's still not clear if Brett Favre can make plays downfield. And where has that vaunted run defense been so far?
New York Jets: Is Mark Sanchez going to go down the Matt Ryan path this season? What happens when he falters?
Pittsburgh: Hard to believe that they lost to the Bears.
New England: Why are they passing so much? Until Tom Brady starts throwing more accurately, they are definitely beatable.
San Francisco: What will they do when somebody finally slows down Frank Gore? I'm not sure they have a passing game that get them to the playoffs.
Philadelphia: The longer McNabb is out, the further they get from the top of the NFC East.
Need Work:
Arizona: Kurt Warner had an amazing day against the Jaguars, but the Cardinals are still the same old from what we can tell so far.
Buffalo: The Bills defense looks good so far, especially against the run. The Saints will test them, but not many defenses are going to stop the Saints this year. The true test will be whether Trent Edwards and the offense has success against the so-so Saints defense.
Chicago: Jay Cutler has shown his two main traits: He can lose a game by himself, and win a game by himself.
Cincinnati:The Bengals defense is good, but it might need to be great to get this team into the playoffs.
Dallas: The Cowboys responded well to most of what they saw from the Giants this week, but Tony Romo has to be smarter with the ball, and that will be the deciding factor for Dallas this year.
Green Bay: Scoring on defense is great, but it doesn't do much good when you can't stop the run and give up 31 points. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is getting hit, a lot.
Houston: Well, the offense isn't dead after all. The defense needs to play better against the run, but the Texans could still challenge the Colts this year.
San Diego: Inconsistency is their calling card.
Seattle: Without Matt Hasselbeck... well, they are not very good.
Tennessee: 0-2 already, and probably not thrilled to see that the Colts are still pretty good.
Teams that probably won't hang around past November, but aren't finished yet:
Carolina: An 0-2 start looks a lot worse when New Orleans and Atlanta are already 2-0 (one win against the Panthers). The worst part is that the Panthers don't really match up well with either of those teams, and could get swept by both.
Denver: The 2-0 start is nice, and San Diego doesn't look all that scary, but the Broncos will have to play a couple of good teams, and Oakland and Kansas City aren't pushovers for Denver anymore.
Miami: 0-2 in the AFC East is almost a deathknell. The Dolphins will have to do very well in their division schedule to catch up.
Oakland: JaMarcus Russell isn't very good.
Washington: They just can't seem to play full games, and sometimes the simplest things go awry.
Teams that I'm pretty sure are already finished:
Cleveland: No offense, no defense. Their return team is pretty good though.
Detroit: I have tried not to say anything about the Lions for a while now, but they are finally improving. Kevin Jones is a solid running back and their defense is a little better.
Jacksonville: The Jaguars can't throw the ball enough to make their offense a even a small threat, and their defense isn't that good either.
Kansas City: The Chiefs are still a long ways off. They just don't have the players right now.
St. Louis: Worst team in the NFL.
Tampa Bay: The Bucs defense is actually not horrible. Byron Leftwich probably won't start this entire season.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Rankings: Week 2
1. Pittsburgh: The Steelers defense still looks strong, and even without Troy Polamalu they are the best team in the league right now.
2. New York Giants: It is pretty difficult to rank the next few teams. The Giants still have a lot to prove, but they played very good defense at home against Washington.
3. Philadelphia: They will probably be better off if Jeff Garcia plays sooner than later, but no matter who the quarterback is, they can't rely on turnovers every game.
4. Baltimore: The Chiefs made a habit out of challenging teams all of last season, but the Ravens shouldn't being giving up 24 points to that team.
5. New England: Not the best performance by the Patriots last night, and they were beyond lucky to even come away with a win. Still, Brady mostly looked good, and Moss and Welker were very big. The defense will need to step up against the run.
6. Atlanta: Having all offseason to prepare for Miami probably helped them shut down the wildcat. The Falcons are a real threat in the NFC, at least so far.
7. Minnesota: Brett Favre played like a 2000 Trent Dilfer and Adrian Peterson dominated the Browns. A winning formula against lesser teams, but the Vikings will need to throw the ball downfield at some point.
8. Dallas: Plenty of big plays. Again, we need to see how Dallas fares against better teams.
9. Green Bay: The Packers were given a lot of gifts by Jay Cutler, but they looked good on defense, and Aaron Rodgers is just getting warmed up.
10. Indianapolis: Many think the Colts should have easily disposed of Jacksonville, but don't forget that this is a divisional game and that the Jaguars usually play their hardest against Payton Manning.
11. New Orleans: They'll score a lot of points this season, but they'll also give up way too many.
12. Seattle: Thorough domination of the Rams.
13. San Francisco: Mike Singletary has the right idea so far, and the 49ers won a huge Week 1 game.
14. San Diego: They looked like the same flat, disappointing team that we saw for most of 2008.
15. Tennessee: At 0-1 I can't put them higher yet, even though their defense is still pretty good without Albert Haynesworth.
16. Carolina: Jake Delhomme needs to go. But I've been saying that for a year now.
17. Miami: They'll be OK, but Atlanta made their wildcard offense look silly.
18. Chicago: Brian Urlacher will be missed, but the big problem is whether Jay Cutler will settle down.
19. New York Jets: Their defense dominated what is supposed to be a pretty good offense in Houston. Mark Sanchez just needs to limit mistakes, and he will get off to a nice start.
20. Buffalo: The offensive line actually held their own, and Trent Edwards played mistake-free. Basically, the only thing the Bills did wrong in New England was fumble a kickoff.
21. Arizona: I can't imagine many are shocked by this. The Cardinals maybe need to pretend these are playoff games.
22. Houston: Can the Texans dig themselves out of this hole? They better start this week in Nashville.
23. Washington: Jason Campbell just can't seem to break out and make plays. If he doesn't start, Washington has no chance in 2009.
24. Denver: Lucky does not fully describe it, but you can't fault a team that is in a position to make that play. Could be a rare win this season, but it's nice to be 1-0.
25. Cincinnati: Lucky or not, the Broncos were within a point with under a minute, so it's not like the Bengals ran away with it. At least they aren't the worst team in their division.
26. Jacksonville: No passing game, but they will make it hard on teams this year.
27. Kansas City: Impressive fight, hopefully they win a few of these close games this year. They need Matt Cassell soon.
28. Tampa Bay: If they lose at Buffalo this week, they might as well start planning for Josh Freeman's debut.
29. Oakland: Even though they could have beat San Diego, I don't know that they showed a lot of potential for future success. Nice to see JaMarcus Russell make some plays, even if he is running only part of the playbook still, after three years.
30. Cleveland: No passing game, no run defense. Josh Cribbs can't score every game, and even if he does, the Browns will still lose by double-digits.
31. St. Louis: Pitiful, but until the Lions break that losing streak...
32. Detroit
2. New York Giants: It is pretty difficult to rank the next few teams. The Giants still have a lot to prove, but they played very good defense at home against Washington.
3. Philadelphia: They will probably be better off if Jeff Garcia plays sooner than later, but no matter who the quarterback is, they can't rely on turnovers every game.
4. Baltimore: The Chiefs made a habit out of challenging teams all of last season, but the Ravens shouldn't being giving up 24 points to that team.
5. New England: Not the best performance by the Patriots last night, and they were beyond lucky to even come away with a win. Still, Brady mostly looked good, and Moss and Welker were very big. The defense will need to step up against the run.
6. Atlanta: Having all offseason to prepare for Miami probably helped them shut down the wildcat. The Falcons are a real threat in the NFC, at least so far.
7. Minnesota: Brett Favre played like a 2000 Trent Dilfer and Adrian Peterson dominated the Browns. A winning formula against lesser teams, but the Vikings will need to throw the ball downfield at some point.
8. Dallas: Plenty of big plays. Again, we need to see how Dallas fares against better teams.
9. Green Bay: The Packers were given a lot of gifts by Jay Cutler, but they looked good on defense, and Aaron Rodgers is just getting warmed up.
10. Indianapolis: Many think the Colts should have easily disposed of Jacksonville, but don't forget that this is a divisional game and that the Jaguars usually play their hardest against Payton Manning.
11. New Orleans: They'll score a lot of points this season, but they'll also give up way too many.
12. Seattle: Thorough domination of the Rams.
13. San Francisco: Mike Singletary has the right idea so far, and the 49ers won a huge Week 1 game.
14. San Diego: They looked like the same flat, disappointing team that we saw for most of 2008.
15. Tennessee: At 0-1 I can't put them higher yet, even though their defense is still pretty good without Albert Haynesworth.
16. Carolina: Jake Delhomme needs to go. But I've been saying that for a year now.
17. Miami: They'll be OK, but Atlanta made their wildcard offense look silly.
18. Chicago: Brian Urlacher will be missed, but the big problem is whether Jay Cutler will settle down.
19. New York Jets: Their defense dominated what is supposed to be a pretty good offense in Houston. Mark Sanchez just needs to limit mistakes, and he will get off to a nice start.
20. Buffalo: The offensive line actually held their own, and Trent Edwards played mistake-free. Basically, the only thing the Bills did wrong in New England was fumble a kickoff.
21. Arizona: I can't imagine many are shocked by this. The Cardinals maybe need to pretend these are playoff games.
22. Houston: Can the Texans dig themselves out of this hole? They better start this week in Nashville.
23. Washington: Jason Campbell just can't seem to break out and make plays. If he doesn't start, Washington has no chance in 2009.
24. Denver: Lucky does not fully describe it, but you can't fault a team that is in a position to make that play. Could be a rare win this season, but it's nice to be 1-0.
25. Cincinnati: Lucky or not, the Broncos were within a point with under a minute, so it's not like the Bengals ran away with it. At least they aren't the worst team in their division.
26. Jacksonville: No passing game, but they will make it hard on teams this year.
27. Kansas City: Impressive fight, hopefully they win a few of these close games this year. They need Matt Cassell soon.
28. Tampa Bay: If they lose at Buffalo this week, they might as well start planning for Josh Freeman's debut.
29. Oakland: Even though they could have beat San Diego, I don't know that they showed a lot of potential for future success. Nice to see JaMarcus Russell make some plays, even if he is running only part of the playbook still, after three years.
30. Cleveland: No passing game, no run defense. Josh Cribbs can't score every game, and even if he does, the Browns will still lose by double-digits.
31. St. Louis: Pitiful, but until the Lions break that losing streak...
32. Detroit
Friday, September 11, 2009
Week 1
Games that already happened:
Pittsburgh 13, Tennessee 10 (OT)
Any team that has Pittsburgh or Tennessee on their roster is not look forward to facing either of their defenses. These two pounded the crap out of each other into a fifth period, and Pittsburgh lost star Troy Polamalu for a month or so. Both offenses had a slew of bad penalties, mostly illegal formations and illegal motion violations. Otherwise, both teams have to like what they saw last night.
Games that already matter:
Miami at Atlanta
These teams shocked everybody last season by bouncing back from terrible 2007 records. Each brought in a new quarterback, rookie Matt Ryan in Atlanta, and new-old QB Chad Pennington in Miami. Miami is built to stay competitive, but Atlanta has questions: Will Ryan continue to play like a seasoned vet? Will the defense keep them in games?
Dolphins 31 Falcons 27
Philadelphia at Carolina
The Eagles offense should pick where they left off, and a couple games without Michael Vick in the lineup will make Donovan McNabb feel like he is still the 'man'. I think Jake Delhomme will not play 16 games this year, and it won't be because of injuries.
Eagles 27 Panthers 14
Washington at NY Giants
Whenever the Giants face a better than average defense this year, it will be hard to forecast a winner. Even with their running game, it is hard to hang your hat on Eli Manning and his current number one receiver, Steve Smith. Washington just has to limit turnovers and score in the red zone, and they could make the playoffs.
Washington 20 Giants 17
Chicago at Green Bay
Suddenly this is a battle of quarterbacks. I like Aaron Rodgers at home.
Packers 35 Bears 24
San Francisco at Arizona
A divisional matchup in Week 1 is a big deal, even if the division is the awful (in 2008) NFC West. Arizona has to prove that they really are an elite team, and San Francisco has to prove that they have improved from last year.
Cardinals 27 49ers 16
St. Louis at Seattle
A divisional match-up in Week 1 is a big deal, even if the division is the awful (in 2008) NFC West. St. Louis probably doesn't have a division title in their future, but the Seahawks will need this win for tiebreakers later.
Seahawks 20 Rams 10
Games that might be interesting:
Minnesota at Cleveland
As a Vikings fan, I will be very interested in this game. And then all those people who still care about Brett Favre will be watching. I expect Minnesota's defense to feast on Brady Quinn.
Vikings 30 Browns 10
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Jacksonville always gets up for games against the Colts, even if they are a decided underdog.
Colts 21 Jaguars 10
Kansas City at Baltimore
The Ravens got a warning shot last night from the Steelers, who look like they haven't lost a step since last February. The Chiefs are hoping this is a rebuilding year where they actually build up.
Ravens 24 Chiefs 9
NY Jets at Houston
The Jets are being hyped a lot after stealing a lot of Baltimore's defense, and the Texans have (realistic) playoff expectations for the first time in their short history. At home, Matt Schaub should be able to handle the wild Jets D.
Texans 27 Jets 17
Games that probably won't be very interesting:
Denver at Cincinnati
Will Kyle Orton play or won't he? Who cares?
Bengals 20 Broncos 16
Detroit at New Orleans
Drew Brees gets a nice warm-up to start the season.
Saints 41 Lions 21
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Tony Romo breaks a sweat to start the season.
Cowboys 27 Buccaneers 13
Games that happen on Monday night:
Buffalo at New England
Tom Brady will look to set the pace for what many expect to be another record-setting season. The Bills will try to keep Trent Edwards off the ground as much as possible.
Patriots 31 Bills 21
San Diego at Oakland
Even without Shawn Merriman, should he face yet another suspension, the Chargers are far and away the best team in the AFC West.
Chargers 28 Raiders 7
Pittsburgh 13, Tennessee 10 (OT)
Any team that has Pittsburgh or Tennessee on their roster is not look forward to facing either of their defenses. These two pounded the crap out of each other into a fifth period, and Pittsburgh lost star Troy Polamalu for a month or so. Both offenses had a slew of bad penalties, mostly illegal formations and illegal motion violations. Otherwise, both teams have to like what they saw last night.
Games that already matter:
Miami at Atlanta
These teams shocked everybody last season by bouncing back from terrible 2007 records. Each brought in a new quarterback, rookie Matt Ryan in Atlanta, and new-old QB Chad Pennington in Miami. Miami is built to stay competitive, but Atlanta has questions: Will Ryan continue to play like a seasoned vet? Will the defense keep them in games?
Dolphins 31 Falcons 27
Philadelphia at Carolina
The Eagles offense should pick where they left off, and a couple games without Michael Vick in the lineup will make Donovan McNabb feel like he is still the 'man'. I think Jake Delhomme will not play 16 games this year, and it won't be because of injuries.
Eagles 27 Panthers 14
Washington at NY Giants
Whenever the Giants face a better than average defense this year, it will be hard to forecast a winner. Even with their running game, it is hard to hang your hat on Eli Manning and his current number one receiver, Steve Smith. Washington just has to limit turnovers and score in the red zone, and they could make the playoffs.
Washington 20 Giants 17
Chicago at Green Bay
Suddenly this is a battle of quarterbacks. I like Aaron Rodgers at home.
Packers 35 Bears 24
San Francisco at Arizona
A divisional matchup in Week 1 is a big deal, even if the division is the awful (in 2008) NFC West. Arizona has to prove that they really are an elite team, and San Francisco has to prove that they have improved from last year.
Cardinals 27 49ers 16
St. Louis at Seattle
A divisional match-up in Week 1 is a big deal, even if the division is the awful (in 2008) NFC West. St. Louis probably doesn't have a division title in their future, but the Seahawks will need this win for tiebreakers later.
Seahawks 20 Rams 10
Games that might be interesting:
Minnesota at Cleveland
As a Vikings fan, I will be very interested in this game. And then all those people who still care about Brett Favre will be watching. I expect Minnesota's defense to feast on Brady Quinn.
Vikings 30 Browns 10
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Jacksonville always gets up for games against the Colts, even if they are a decided underdog.
Colts 21 Jaguars 10
Kansas City at Baltimore
The Ravens got a warning shot last night from the Steelers, who look like they haven't lost a step since last February. The Chiefs are hoping this is a rebuilding year where they actually build up.
Ravens 24 Chiefs 9
NY Jets at Houston
The Jets are being hyped a lot after stealing a lot of Baltimore's defense, and the Texans have (realistic) playoff expectations for the first time in their short history. At home, Matt Schaub should be able to handle the wild Jets D.
Texans 27 Jets 17
Games that probably won't be very interesting:
Denver at Cincinnati
Will Kyle Orton play or won't he? Who cares?
Bengals 20 Broncos 16
Detroit at New Orleans
Drew Brees gets a nice warm-up to start the season.
Saints 41 Lions 21
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Tony Romo breaks a sweat to start the season.
Cowboys 27 Buccaneers 13
Games that happen on Monday night:
Buffalo at New England
Tom Brady will look to set the pace for what many expect to be another record-setting season. The Bills will try to keep Trent Edwards off the ground as much as possible.
Patriots 31 Bills 21
San Diego at Oakland
Even without Shawn Merriman, should he face yet another suspension, the Chargers are far and away the best team in the AFC West.
Chargers 28 Raiders 7
Matt's Tecmo Super Bowl Playoffs
A recently completed season of Tecmo Super Bowl, using a ROM on the computer. Matt was the Falcons, and completed one of the hardest postseason schedules I have ever seen. Washington, New York and San Francisco are probably the three best teams in the NFC, and Houston is no slouch either. Check out Chris Miller's season stats below.
Check out the INT-TD ratio. I think 'Average' describes Miller pretty well.
Check out the INT-TD ratio. I think 'Average' describes Miller pretty well.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Predicting 2009
I did something I have never done before: Printed out an the entire NFL schedule for 2009, and predicted the winner for every single game. Thus, I arrived at the following predictions. I want to point out that doing it this way, while very precise and much more accurate, leds things to get a bit skewed. Had I just come up with records off the top of my head, surely the Eagles, Dolphins, and Ravens would not have racked up so many wins. But I'll stand by this tally.
New England 13-3
Miami 12-4
Buffalo 6-10
New York 4-12
AFC North
Baltimore 12-4
Pittsburgh 10-6
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 4-12
AFC South
Houston 10-6
Indianapolis 9-7
Jacksonville 8-8
Tennessee 8-8
AFC West
San Diego 10-6
Kansas City 5-11
Denver 3-13
Oakland 3-13
NFC East
Philadelphia 13-3
New York 10-6
Dallas 8-7
Washington 7-9
NFC North
Minnesota 11-5
Chicago 9-7
Green Bay 8-8
Detroit 4-12
NFC South
Atlanta 10-6
New Orleans 10-6
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 4-12
NFC West
Seattle 10-6
Arizona 8-8
San Francisco 6-10
St. Louis 5-11
AFC Wildcard
San Diego over Miami
Pittsburgh over Houston
AFC Divisional
Baltimore over San Diego
New England over Pittsburgh
AFC Championship
New England over Baltimore
NFC Wildcard
New Orleans over Atlanta
New York over Seattle
NFC Divisional
Minnesota over New Orleans
New York over Philadelphia
NFC Championship
Minnesota over New York
Super Bowl
New England over Minnesota
*Note that the NFC Playoffs are eerily similar to the 2000 NFC Playoffs. A coincidence, for sure.
Power Rankings
I think this is probably the most difficult and meaningless (saying a lot) post I could possibly write. But here goes, power rankings heading into the first week of the regular season:
1. Pittsburgh: I'm abiding by the old number-one-until-somebody-beats-them rule here, against my gut feeling that the Steelers are not the best team in the league right now, even with the fancy ring.
2. New England: There are some questions about their pass defense, but they can out-gun any team in the league with Tom Brady healthy, and with Brandon Meriweather at safety, things can't be all bad.
3. Philadelphia: I feel like I've been brainwashed to believe that the Eagles are this good. Their offense is pretty good when they are on, and even without Jim Johnson the defense is still top 15, right?
4. Baltimore: I like any team that can play as physical as the Ravens. And I like their schedule. (AFC West, NFC North)
5. New York Giants: Like the Steelers, the Giants are high because, as of yet, nobody has de-throned them. I don't particularly like Eli Manning, and without a solid receiver, I think he will struggle more than usual.
1. Pittsburgh: I'm abiding by the old number-one-until-somebody-beats-them rule here, against my gut feeling that the Steelers are not the best team in the league right now, even with the fancy ring.
2. New England: There are some questions about their pass defense, but they can out-gun any team in the league with Tom Brady healthy, and with Brandon Meriweather at safety, things can't be all bad.
3. Philadelphia: I feel like I've been brainwashed to believe that the Eagles are this good. Their offense is pretty good when they are on, and even without Jim Johnson the defense is still top 15, right?
4. Baltimore: I like any team that can play as physical as the Ravens. And I like their schedule. (AFC West, NFC North)
5. New York Giants: Like the Steelers, the Giants are high because, as of yet, nobody has de-throned them. I don't particularly like Eli Manning, and without a solid receiver, I think he will struggle more than usual.
6. Tennessee: Like the Ravens, they should be able to pound a lot of their opponents, especially early in the year. I'd like to guess that the Kerry Collins era is about to run its course, but I'm usually wrong about things like that (see numerous posts about Brett Favre retiring).
7. Indianapolis: Conventional wisdom tells us that losing a bunch of coaches, chiefly Tony Dungy, and Marvin Harrison would be enough to sink a team before they start. But conventional wisdom also tells us that any team with Payton Manning has a fighting chance. Plus he gets to throw against the NFC West four times.
8. Carolina: Jake Delhomme could ruin this ranking. He struggled mightily in the playoffs at home against the Cardinals, and if any of that carries over, the Panthers are sunk.
9. Minnesota: With Brett Favre, Tarvaris Jackson, or Sage Rosenfels, this is probably a 10-6 team, but they will start out very fast (maybe 5-0 before hosting Baltimore in Week 6).
10. Atlanta: Matt Ryan has to prove that he can do it again, but it didn't look like beginner's luck. If the defense comes together, the Falcons will rise from 10 pretty fast.
11. Miami: See note above; replace Delhomme with Chad Pennington. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will rush for a combined 2,000 yards.
12. Arizona: The fact of the matter is that Arizona lost eight games last season including the Super Bowl. They made an excellent run at the right time, but they still have a lot of weaknesses that can and will be exploited. And Kurt Warner is a year older.
13. San Diego: Talent, talent, talent. We'll see if they make a go at it this season, though something about them (Norv Turner) tells me they won't.
14. Green Bay: Everybody is the world loves the Packers after that spirited preseason, but they are going to have to prove it in a real game first. It is very hard to judge a defense that just switched schemes by a few quarters against offenses that are spending more time learning their base plays than they are game-planning for Green Bay.
15. Dallas: It's hard to believe that Tony Romo won't lead the Cowboys to eight or nine wins. It is also hard to believe that Tony Romo will play in a playoff game this season.
16. New Orleans: Like the Packers, the Saints will probably be more fun than good this season.
17. Chicago: Jay Cutler is pretty good at times, but he also will lose the Bears a couple games this season. Throw in an aging and declining defense, and I see 8-8.
18. Houston: If Houston can manage a sweep of either Indianapolis or Tennessee, they will win the division. If.
19. Seattle: A lot of folks like Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks this season. And why not? They play in the worst division in the NFC and have a frightening receiving corps.
20. Washington: Washington finished number four on the defensive side last season, and added Albert Haynesworth to the fold. Yes, that's right. The number four defense in the NFL added arguably the most valuable defensive player in the league. The question remains: Can Jason Campbell do enough to help the defense win games?
21. San Francisco: Mike Singletary adds a lot of fire to the team, but they still don't have the
players.
22. Cincinnati: With Carson Palmer healthy they should at least win three or four more games.
23. Buffalo: Ultimately, the young and inexperienced offensive line will be their undoing.
24. Jacksonville: Nice to see Jack Del Rio clean house a little, casting out receivers Reggie Williams and Matt Jones in favor of veteran Torry Holt. Probably won't translate to many wins this season though.
25. New York Jets: Starting a rookie quarterback as a rookie coach worked for both John Harbaugh and Mike Smith last year. Rex Ryan will not join the club.
26. Kansas City: It's kind of hard to believe that they thought Chan Gailey was a good idea to start with.
27. Tampa Bay: Starting over. We'll forgive them a couple years to rebuild around Josh Freeman.
28. Cleveland: Like the Steelers and Giants, we're waiting for them to prove us wrong. They could start by scoring a touchdown.
29. Oakland: There's not enough space here to fully explain why the Raiders are the 29th best team in the NFL.
30. St. Louis: Maybe Marc Bulger will bring the Rams back to live after two awful seasons. Maybe?
31. Denver: Hard to like any of the moves they made this off season. Except for benching Brandon Marshall in the preseason.
32. Detroit
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