Week 5 Rankin

Following Week 4, here is how I see the NFL food chain:

1. New York Giants: Dallas had to lose for me to move them up, but they did handle Washington. Plaxico Burress' suspension could be a bigger deal that folks expect.
2. Dallas Cowboys: Can I put them ahead of Washington? Dallas is going to win 13 or 14 games this year, and despite losing that head-to-head match-up, they are still better equipped than Washington to beat up the rest of the league.
3. Tennessee Titans: This defense is flat-out nasty. Baltimore is stingier, but Tennessee adds a very balanced and effective offense.
4. Washington: Huge win. Will they continue to hold serve between divisional games though?
5. Buffalo Bills: Not the most impressive opponents, but 4-0 is a nice place to be going into October.

14. Chicago Bears: they are playing tough right now. They are beatable though, and I don't trust Kyle Orton.
16. Green Bay Packers: If Aaron Rodgers misses any time, the losing streak will get dizzying.
22: Minnesota Vikings: Close, but there are so many inconsistencies that it is hard to picture them emerging from the NFC North. Special teams has been awful.

28. Cleveland Browns: Relief comes in the form of a win, but they beat one of the few teams that is worse off than them.
29. Houston Texans: Haven't seen a lot of this team. Can Matt Schaub lift them up from 0-3?
30. Cincinnati Bengals: Yuck. Without Carson Palmer: Yuck.
31: Detroit Lions: Bye week was their best so far. They will still challenge teams because they can score, but five wins is optimistic.
32: St. Louis Rams: Finally put together three quarters of solid play. 4th quarter was embarrassing.

Experts:
ESPN.com: G.B.- 15, CHI- 18, MIN- 21, DET-31
Sportsline: G.B.-11, CHI-13, MIN-24, DET-31
Michael Silver(Yahoo): G.B.-12, CHI-12, MIN-19, DET-31
Jeff Sagarin(USA Today): CHI-8, G.B.-15, MIN-19, DET-31
FoxSports: CHI- 11, G.B.- 13, MIN- 19, DET- 32

I hate sportswriters?

Speaking of the Vikings (ahem), could there be a better example of why sports-media types should stick to reporting and stay away from forecasting?

Every year there are too many NFL Super Bowl predictions to count. And why not? It is fun, a good water-cooler conversation. But, in Week 5, when the standings look nothing like the talking heads expected, is it really newsworthy to talk about how teams aren't living up to expectations? With every season comes free agency-splashes, momentum from a Week 17 win the previous year, a new coach. Fans get excited. They are going to be pumped for a new year anyway, even Detroit Lions fans. Unfortunately, the media usually works this into a frenzy.

"Dr. Z" over at Sports Illustrated (What is this guy's real name, and who gave him this awful, awful nickname?) predicted the Vikings would win the Super Bowl all the way back in June. Most NFL writers and broadcasters had them in the playoffs. Now, with September coming to a close and the team in a rut at 1-3, these same experts are trashing them. Is it fair to get down on a 1-3 team? Absolutely, especially one that has some really great singular talents. But can we deny that most of the heat the Vikings are getting stems from the preseason "hopes" that were placed on them?

Listen: Judd Zulgad and Kevin Seifert and even most national sportswriters don't know that much more about the game of football than most fans (Granted, they do have access to the players and coaches, and they do have time to analyze the league in a way that most fans cannot.) What gets these guys in at the Star Tribune or ESPN is their skill in reporting. These guys can go find a story, can make excellent contacts, can even write a little; that doesn't translate to them being scouts, or even capable of break down a play. (This is why guys like John Madden and Ron Jawarski are around.)

To the point: When sportswriters see Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Antoine Winfield, etc., on a roster, they think they have a winner. True, there was a big "if" with all of these predictions for the Vikings: Do they have a competent quarterback? But what about all of the other things that were ignored?

The Vikings are 1-3 right now because of some really obvious shortcomings: Receivers are dropping 3rd down passes; The defense is giving up big plays; penalties are coming from every position; the kick off coverage team is flat-out terrible; turnovers; horrendous play-calling in big situations. The Vikings have had a chance to win in the 4th quarter of all three losses because: Adrian Peterson, Jared Allen, Antoine Winfield, etc.

All the players that got Vikings fans and sportswriters excited about the team are doing their part. And they are 1-3, on the verge of being dealt a knock-out punch next Monday night in New Orleans?

If Mike Tice did anything as head coach in Minnesota, he put together a really stout special teams. Kick and punt coverage was excellent, and the returners and kickers did everything right-they didn't fumble, they made most field goals. Since Childress took over, these units have progressively gotten worse. This was compounded by huge roster turnover from last season, mostly at back-up positions, where strong special teams play originates. Field position has killed the Vikings defense.

Minnesota couldn't make big plays in the passing game the last two seasons. Add one decent receiver and suddenly they are a Super Bowl offense? No. Especially if he (Bernard Berrian) drops passes consistently. Oh, and by the way, the big "if"? Very iffy.

Sportswriters are not experts in football. They are experts in reporting. Is it disappointing that the Vikings are 1-3? Yes. Is it more disappointing because a couple talking heads thought they might make a run at the Super Bowl? No.

Titans 30, Vikings 17

The Vikings turned the ball over, fell behind early, and couldn't get Kerry Collins on the ground in the first half. And they committed some horrific penalties.

For the first time in at least three seasons the Vikings were completely out-played physically.  The Titans offensive line didn't dominate the game, but they controlled the Vikings for the most part, enough to keep drives a live. It seems the 2008 Vikings are going to be a team of almosts and could-haves. 

They had more than enough chances to get back in this game after falling behind by 10. They had more than enough chances not to fall behind to start with. Turnovers put them in the hole, and penalties spread dirt over their collective spirit. The game was actually quite similar to the Week 1 loss to Green Bay. The opponent more or less outplayed them, even if only by a little, but allowed the Vikings numerous opportunities to turn the tables. Turnovers, penalties.

Aside from the obvious turning point in the game, an Adrian Peterson fumble deep in the team's own territory, the Minnesota offensive play calling was one of the major reasons they lost this game. From the outset Tennessee appeared much better prepared for this game. It almost seemed that Minnesota had no gameplan. There was no consistency in the play calling from drive to drive. Chester Taylor has to carry the ball; there is no excuse for his finishing with one carry for one yard. Peterson was used well for the most part, but why isn't he ever part of the 4th quarter strategy? 

The number one question that needs to be asked of Brad Childress: Why is it that with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback, the team was running on 3rd and 6, and now with Gus Frerotte at the helm, they are passing on 3rd and 2? There is no doubt that Frerotte has improved the team's 3rd down conversion rate, but how about using your team's strengths a little more? 

Defensively, there is no doubt that the Titans came out and did some things that the Vikings weren't ready for. But, 21 of their points were scored off of turnovers, two of those touchdowns scored on extremely short fields. And in the second half, the Titans offense could not get going at all. They finished with 275 yards. The defense even came up with a turnover at the end of the first half, which was wasted on a Ryan Longwell missed field goal.

So, for probably the 15th time since Brad Childress took over as Minnesota's head coach, the defense did everything it needed to do to win a game, but got no support from the offense. The only good news? Even at 1-3, Minnesota is only one game behind Green Bay, and has finished th toughest stretch of its season. Hope is hard to grasp after a game like that, but in today's NFL, there is no reason to count them out. Yet.

Post script: This was a sprawl, quite fresh reaction to this game. But there are quite a few other things that were not discussed, including: the Vikings awful kick coverage unit, more dropped passes, Bobby Wade coming up huge on 3rd downs, and Jared Allen being held every other play.

As promised, more Vikings

Since it is 90 minutes until game time, and I didn't write a preview of this game, let's just stick to what we know will be said about every Minnesota Vikings game this season:

The Vikings cannot fall behind early.

Gus Frerotte needs to establish some passing threat to keep the safeties out of the box.

Jared Allen and the defensive line have to create pressure to help out the secondary.

There is no reason the Vikings can't win this game. That said, Tennessee is essentially the exact same team as the Vikings so it could go either way. 16-10 Vikings?

Completely Uninformed Look at Week 4

As if anybody has a clue what will happen from week to week in the NFL, I'll go ahead and throw my own opinion into the mess. Let's not go for a game-of-the-week of a locks or upsets. 

Cleveland at Cincinnati: An amazingly tough game to call; which team is worse? Carson Palmer looked good despite being thrown around by the Giants defensive line. The Browns defense doesn't seem to be able to stop anybody. But in the battle for Ohio's first win, something tells me the Browns have too much talent to lose this one. Browns 27-21.

Minnesota at Tennessee: I'll be posting more about this one later, but for now, this looks like a slow one. Which defense can force more mistakes? A homer-pick: Vikings 16-10.

Denver at Kansas City: Only one team has looked worse than the Chiefs. Denver's offense is a blast, and the Chiefs will find that out Sunday. Denver 38-17.

San Francisco at New Orleans: Note- I have not seen either of these teams play. Saints 34-28.

Arizona at NY Jets: Brett Favre will get a chance to gunsling his way through a barnburner. His interceptions shouldn't be as detrimental this week. Jets 38-31.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay: Although he looks like a better than average quarterback I'm still not sold on Aaron Rodgers being a winner. Tampa Bay will be a good test, and if Brian Griese can continue his solid play, I like the Bucs, 27-20.

Atlanta at Carolina: The Falcons have looked good against lesser teams so far, but the Panthers are simply the better team. Panthers 23-10.

Houston at Jacksonville: Same as above. Jaguars 27-13.

San Diego at Oakland: San Diego has to prove that they are back on track. Chargers 31-14.

Buffalo at St. Louis: Peter King predicted an upset here. I have no idea where he got that idea. Bills 28-17.

Washington at Dallas: The Redskins could eventually fight for the final wildcard spot, but Tony Romo should out duel Jason Campbell. Cowboys 34-20.

Philadelphia at Chicago: Again, King, predicted the Bears would turn it around this week and beat the Eagles. If the Eagles can sack Ben Roethlisberger that many times, I hate to see what Kyle Orton is going to look like Monday morning. Eagles 27-9.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The Steelers will bounce back, 24-14.

That's all. Will be back with Vikings preview/rant later this week.

Rank 'Em

Well, it's Tuesday, and during the NFL season that means the new power rankings are out. Pretty much every notable online sports (aside from SI.com's Dr. Z, who waits until Wednesday) source rolls out some kind of ranking each week on Tuesday. I've decided to give my own short list a shot. I've always believed that between numbers seven and 25 there is almost no way to accurately or sensibly rank teams, so I'll stay with just the top and bottom five. Since I have actually go to the trouble of ranking each team, I'll throw in each NFC North team's spot, since none will be in the top five (though one appears to be destined to stay in the Bottom five all season). For the sake of credibility, I'll throw in the NFC North rankings from five "professionals."

Post-Week 3 "Power" Rankings:

1. Dallas Cowboys. Even though the Giants look awfully good and awfully confident, Dallas has beat some quality opponents, and their offense looks unstoppable.

2. New York Giants. Eli Manning is the man. Is there a more clutch receiver in the league right now than Plaxico Burress?

3. Tennessee Titans. Defense rules in this list, and there is no better defense than the Titans so far. There ain't nothing wrong with Nashville.

4. Philadelphia Eagles. The only team with a loss in the top five, they appear to be able to play any style of football.

5. Buffalo Bills. Probably higher than most would have them, but they continue to find different ways to win, how can anybody argue against the Bills?

The North comes in at...

10. Green Bay Packers. I'm not convinced that their defense is still among the best in the league. Aaron Rodgers is going to have to carry this team. Is he ready?

14. Minnesota Vikings. Only a Vikings fan would put them this high. If their only problem was consistency at quarterback, what's stopping them now?

25. Chicago Bears. It's never encouraging to see a team find such brutal ways to lose 10-point leads.

30. Detroit Lions. The Chiefs and Rams are really bad.

What did the experts say? Here is a sampling:

ESPN.com: G.B.- 8, MIN- 19, CHI-20, DET, 30

CBSSportsline.com: G.B.- 7, CHI- 21, MIN- 23, DET- 30

YahooSports: G.B.- 4, MIN-15, CHI- 20, DET- 30

USA Today: G.B.- 11, CHI- 13, MIN-19, DET-31

NBCSports: G.B.- 6, CHI- 16, MIN- 19, DET-30

Not a lot of question about who is the best team in the division, or who is the worst. Remember, ESPN.com uses a panel of writers to determine their rankings, and Jeff Sagarin of USA Today has developed a mathematical formula to determine his. Not surprisingly, the Cowboys got almost every number one spot I saw today.

Football with Craig Finn

I was a bit distracted during the Vikings first win of the season. About five minutes into the first quarter The Hold Steady's Craig Finn walked into the bar and started looking for the screen carrying Minnesota's game. I directed him to my table, which was otherwise empty, and we proceded to talk Minneapolis, Twins baseball, and Drive-By Truckers while watching the Vikings defense completely dominate the Panthers.

The most obvious story of the day, at least in the national media's eyes, is that of Gus Frerotte bringing life to the Vikings previously awful offense. But, ultimately, this was one hell of a defensive performance. Carolina finished with 204 yards, including a measly 47 on the ground. After watching the game, my initial impression was that 47 seemed high- it felt like they didn't gain any rushing yards. Jake Delhomme did manage a couple big plays through the air, but for the most part Carolina struggled to sustain any drive. The Vikings helped Carolina out with a turnover, poor special teams coverage, and some horrific penalties, but the Panthers couldn't capitalize.

They couldn't. Minnesota wouldn't let them. Although Delhomme stayed on his feet some, the Vikings defensive line was incredibly active. They were scattering the Panthers offensive line and disrupting passing lanes. They register five sacks, including two exclamation points in the 4th quarter, when Jared Allen and Kevin Williams each nabbed Delhomme once on Carolina's last real chance to get back in the game. Still, the Panthers could not take advantage of the Vikings' aggressive rush; draw plays were not netting Carolina runners much. The Vikings linebackers are among the league's best, and aside from being quick in every direction, they almost never miss a tackle.

On top of the all-around team effort, Antoine Winfield threw in one of the best individual plays that a footballer can make. Winfield blitzed Delhomme from the left side, and in one fell swoop registered a sack and forced fumble, and then picked up the ball and scampered into the end zone for a touchdown. In retrospect, this play pretty much sealed the game. The second half was almost boring; Minnesota dominated every facet of the game, and held the ball for 11:34 before taking a 20-10 lead on a Ryan Longwell field goal.

Frerotte looked sharp, especially relative to Tarvaris Jackson. The playbook opened up a bit, and he slung the ball all over, spreading it between eight receivers. Bernard Berrian finally got involved, and Visanthe Shiancoe finally held onto a ball, and the offense held its own.

Craig seemed happy about the win, although he was more relieved to see that the Twins had beaten the Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays 4-1. Things I learned (or reaffirmed) today: The Vikings are a playoff team with Gus Frerotte; Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL; Washington Redskins cheerleaders love The Hold Steady.

Carolina at Minnesota

The NFL is the one professional sport where a team's season can end after the third game. 0-3 is a hole that no team has ever dug themselves out of. Even with a win in their next game, a team is still 1-3 and already a quarter of the way through the season. There's not much time to catch-up, especially if any of those losses came to division rivals.

The Minnesota Vikings find themselves facing this very possibility; an off season full of hope and expectations close to being drubbed out before they even get their star safety and veteran left tackle on the field. If they allow Carolina to beat them at home, there will be no coming back. The 2008 Vikings will be playing for a draft pick.

Brad Childress responded to the enormity of this game by benching Tarvaris Jackson. Gus Frerotte will start. (Ever notice that everybody says "Ta-var-iss" and "Fer-ott"? Where did those extra R's go?) The only reason, and a valid one, is that the Vikings are 0-2. It is actually a much more complicated situation. Jackson is still the only real option the Viking have for the future. This team is built to win in the next couple years, and drafting another QB will be a waste of the veteran talent on the team. Free-agency is rarely the answer for NFL teams at the quarterback position. 

And Jackson is being benched for the team's record more than for his play. His failures have been blown out of proportion after both games. Everybody who claims that he has digressed clearly did not watch Jackson in 2006 or 2007. More accurately, Jackson seems to be playing at the same level as he was in Weeks 16 and 17 last season; which is to say, he isn't throwing the ball very accurately. 

Jackson has been the victim of the incompetence of teammates and coaches alike. Visanthe Shiancoe has dropped at least two critical passes, on of them a touchdown that almost certainly would have giving the team a large enough cushion to beat Indianapolis last Sunday. Childress and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell have produced some of the most conservation and predictable game plans that this spectator has ever seen. To say that they were trying to protect Jackson goes beyond understatement. Jackson has not been allowed to do anything other than hand the ball off and throw slants. Since the defense knows this, there are usually about four defenders on Bernard Berrian or Bobby Wade.

Jackson could have produced these exact same performances, and still be the starter had the Vikings won either game. But, Childress is under pressure to win, and win now, so Frerotte is the man. 

So can the Vikings climb out of this hole and become the contender they were predicted to be? At least for one week, yes, they can. Frerotte will bring some balance and some confidence to the offense, and they should be able to put up more than 20 points between Frerotte and the running game. The desperation factor cannot be overlooked in this game either. The Vikings have to win this game, and they have enough veterans who know it. Add to that that the game is at the Metrodome, and the Vikings should have an emotional edge on Sunday. 

Vikings 24, Panthers 16

NeatSeats

"Please leave the restroom as you found it."

Anybody who works in an office has seen this message on the toilet stall door. Whenever I read it, the smart-ass in me wants to know which other path I would take to exit the room? Have people been tunneling out of the bathrooms? Was I going to dive into the pipes and swim to another floor? 

Needless to say, today I was taking a shit at work, and my mind wandered off a little. After I considered a few exit strategies, I decided that in reality, something had happened to prompt these signs. I stopped short of imagining exactly what messes might have led the administrative assistants to print these off. In a professional work place you'd think people would have the decency, the common sense, the competence, to clean up after themselves.

Eventually, I began to hope that instead of some fecal mess being the cause of these messages, that people were really fucking with the restrooms; maybe the mailroom guy was removing toilet seats, or the intern had rearranged the partitions so he had more space. Redecortating, remodeling.

Give a hoot, keep your local restrooms clean.

Weak 1

The Vikings let one slip away. Sure, the Packers outplayed them for the most part. Rodgers was the more consistent quarterback. The Packers made the plays that were there for them, and the Vikings did not. But in the end, 24-19 was not a closer score than the game really was.

Although the Packers' offensive numbers look pretty good, or at least efficient, take away three explosive plays, and they really were not effective. The Vikings held the run game in check and forced tough third down conversions. No, you cannot take those three plays back. But it points to the fact that the Vikings were in position through the game to take over, and let it slip away.

Adrian Peterson could have been used better. Chester Taylor definitely could have seen more carries. The Vikings are a team that is going to struggle on third downs. That's just the way it is for a team with a mediocre (at best) quarterback and wide receivers who don't always get open. But why pass your way into third in long? If there is one thing we can say for sure about this team, it is that Peterson is capable of scoring every time he touches the ball. So why waste a first down on a 4-yard pass to Garrett Mills? The odds of Peterson breaking out are much better if you run on the majority of first and second downs. If he is stuffed, you end up with a 3rd and 8. Is that so terrible? Instead of passing into a 3rd and 8, and running the risk of Jackson turning it over?

And if Peterson could catch a ball in the flat or as the last resort on a dump-off, how dangerous would he be? No more play-action roll-outs where Tapeh is the number one option. Let Rice and Berrian run free a little more, and let Peterson and Taylor get out in the flats.

Most important to note about this game, though, is the defense. There is no doubt that this team's success rides on the defensive line. Jared Allen was brought in to solidify this unit as the best in the league. The only way they can be better-than-average is if the d-line makes plays and forces mistakes. That is asking a lot, but it is reality. They played well. Not a lot of d-lines can play like that on an off-night. But they did not make an big plays, and they did not force Rodgers into any mistakes. 

Tyrell Johnson struggled at the safety position. He gave up the long one to Jennings, and was generally out of place. Overall, the defense is still a strong point for this team, and to give up only 17 points is not the end of the world. Cut out some penalties and they may have given up one or two less scores.

Losing in Week 1 is not the end of the world, even against a division rival. The Vikings still have three home division games, and still can take the reigns. It has to start this week against Indianapolis though.

Brief, poorly constructed argument for the Minnesota Vikings winning the NFC North in 2008

Reason #1:

Adrian Peterson. Although there were times last season when Peterson was bottled up, even shut down, the fact that he is capable of setting a single-game rushing record is enough. Peterson should benefit from his first off-season as a pro, and if he stays healthy, should be better equipped for a 16-game season.  Although he is playing a tough defensive division (even the Lions have a formidable defensive-line), he could be looking at a 1,500-yard year. 

Reason #2:

Chester Taylor. These first two reasons actually work well together; if one goes down, the other is more than capable of taking over full-time. Taylor is the kind of running back that falls forward. The one that pushes the pile and spins off of hits for a couple more yards. Even when Peterson struggled last season, Taylor managed to keep defenses on their toes and pick up yardage. It will be interesting to see if the Vikings can get both on the field more often. Though neither would be an exceptional blocker for his partner, one of them (Peterson) will draw plenty of attention away from the other.

Reason #3:

Defensive line. This isn't all about Jared Allen. But he is key to the equation. With his presence the front four is suddenly about as frightening as any in the league. Although Allen is pegged as a pass rusher and Pat Williams as a run-stopper, both are above average in every aspect of their game, and with Kevin Williams in there, they will pose some ridiculous problems for opposing offensive lines. In the run game, Pat Williams must be double teamed, and even then, he is a smart enough and strong enough player that he can still disrupt plays. Allen cannot be played one-on-one in the passing game; he is too fast, too strong, and too wily for any tackle in the game. The player who stands to benefit most from all of this is Ray Edwards, who has improved with every game of his career, and will not see a double team for the next couple seasons.