As usual, my
predictions were awful. I got one game right, and was pretty wrong pretty much across the board on the other games, on every point.
There are about 600 things I could say about the Vikings-Eagles game. It was disappointing in many, many ways, because of the bad and good things Minnesota did. Unfortunately, everybodys' projections for this game were correct: the Eagles blitzing stymied Tarvaris Jackson, and the Vikings couldn't sustain drives. What I want to talk about it is why what everybody is saying after the game is wrong.
There have been basically two complaints against the Vikings in the hours since they lost a home wild card game: Jackson
was a mess, and Childress should have accepted a
holding penalty in the first quarter and made the Eagles go for a longer field goal.
I'll start with the field goal. The score was 0-0, and DeSean Jackson had just returned a punt 62 yards into Minnesota territory. The Vikings forced a three-and-out, but there was a holding penalty on Philadelphia on the 3rd down play, an incomplete pass. Rather than give the Eagles a shot at a 3rd and 19, Childress declined the penalty, making it 4th and 9 from the Vikings 26. David Akers nailed a 43-yard field goal and the Eagles took a 3-0 lead.
The criticism is basically that the Vikings should have had more confidence in their defense, and tried to force the Eagles to attempt the kick from further out. This is problematic to me for a few reasons. First, 3rd and 19 is not impossible to get. The Giants converted a 3rd and 21 last week in Vikings territory. Second, a 43-yard field goal is pretty makable for almost all kickers, but Akers is pretty capable of a 53-yarder in a dome, and actually made one from 51 yards later in the game. The major problem is that it is an unnecessary risk. Imagine if the Eagles convert that 3rd and 19? By forcing them to go three-and-out, the Vikings had squashed some momentum. the Eagles had moved the ball well on their first possession, and the Jackson punt return had given them some more juice. Being down 3-0 in the first quarter of a home playoff game is not such a horrible position. On the off-chance that the Eagles convert, suddenly you could be down 7-0 with no momentum. It would be a game-changing moment, one that Childress could not risk at that point in the game. And I think his decision was further justified, not only by Akers' 51-yarder, but also by the the fact that the defense continued to force the Eagles into long 3rd downs and held them to field goals until the Brian Westbrook touchdown.
On to Tarvaris Jackson. My opening disclaimer: I am not going to defend Jackson too much; he was inaccurate, and was very uncomfortable for most of the day. He made some poor decisions, and was unable to get untracked and figure out how to get the ball upfield. That said, his poor play was emblematic of an offense-wide collapse. Everybody knew the Eagles were going to go after Jackson, jut like they go after every quarterback. The Vikings had absolutely no answer for the blitzing. That is why I think the coaching staff is as much to blame for Jackson's poor game as Jackson himself.
Here is one football absolute: The best way to beat any quarterback is to pressure him. Almost no quarterback is successful when he is being rushed and hit often. We saw the Giants shut down the Patriots by getting to Tom Brady early and often in last year's super bowl. We've seen it happen to Peyton Manning, Brett Favre; the list goes on forever. The Eagles were getting Jackson on almost every pass play, and most of the time it was guys coming untouched. No quarterback can be successful in that situation. To make things worse, the Vikings tend to throw from one or two wide receiver formations. There were no open receivers even when the Eagles sent six or seven defenders. How is that possible? Wasn't Childress supposed to be familiar with Jim Johnson?
Jackson showed what I think is his worst attribute: He will try to throw passes even when he is getting hit. almost all of his worst plays in his career have come when he isn't able to step into a throw. The interception taken back for a touchdown by Asante Samuel, which pretty much was the difference in the game, was a perfect example. The play was kind of doomed from the start. Samuel read it immediately, and Rice can sort of a sloppy route; he was somewhere between an out and a comeback. Jackson threw the ball when he shouldn't have, and got hit, all of that adding up to a pass that went directly to Samuel.
Jackson still showed some flashes in this game, despite generally struggling. He can make some crazy throws, and is a very good runner. It is hard to believe that he is not having more success in the league, though we have seen physical potential fail before in this league. the worst thing that happened for Jackson in this game was the second-half play calling. There is no doubt that Childress and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell clammed up in the second half. One of the main reasons I supported Jackson's benching at the start of the year was because it was clear that the Vikings were not calling the game aggressively, and it was clear that the reason for that was Jackson. When he returned to the lineup, the playbook stayed as open as it was with Gus Frerotte. Jackson's best plays were coming on intermediate routes in the middle of the field. We didn't see any of those against Philadelphia.
I think it is easy to blame the quarterback most of the time, and maybe even right. This time, I think it was an offense-wide problem. There were some positives in the game. Adrian PEterson and Chester Taylor were as effective as they could be, considering the team was down for most of the day, and the Eagles defense played pretty good. Jim Kleinsasser is still the best blocking tight end in the league, and had two nice catches. On defense, Jared Allen was stellar and fill-ins Brian Robison and Ellis Wyms were very good. Jimmy Kennedy might have even earned a chance at the final roster for next season. Cedric Griffin played one of his better games. A disappointing loss, but not a shocker.
The Ravens did exactly what I thought they would to the Dolphins: They physically beat them up, and they took advantage of the huge air-time on all of Chad Pennington's passes. I know he is very accurate and a very steady presence at quarterback, but nobody can get away with those throws against the Ravens defense. Willis McGahee can be frighteningly good at times.
I didn't know the Chargers were capable of the game they played Saturday. They pretty much won in every facet of the game. Take away a couple bad red zone turnovers and that game wouldn't have been close. The Colts sort of did what I expected, holding the ball, converting third downs, but they wore down in the second half.
I hinted in my last post that maybe the Cardinals should be getting more respect heading into the playoffs. It was a good match up for them, hosting the Falcons, and they took advantage. Matt Ryan played OK, but was not ready for a playoff game. Kurt Warner took advantage of a porous Falcons defense all day. I still like Andre Johnson as the league's best wide receiver, but Larry Fitzgerald is a close second. The ball never touches any part of his body but his hands.
