Week 12 Picks Revisited

Prediction: Packers 30 Lions 22
Actual: Packers 34 Lions 12
Maybe I came blame this on the fact that Daunte Culpepper didn't start, as I expected he would. And why didn't he? It seems unnecessary to start the injured Matthew Stafford, even if his left shoulder wasn't going to get any worse. The Packers actually have the league's best defense right now (yardage). I, for one, am shocked.

Prediction: Cowboys 16 Raiders 13
Actual: Cowboys 24 Raiders 7
The Raiders didn't carry any momentum over from their upset of the Bengals. The Cowboys just did what they had to, and left with a win and a 10-day layoff.

Prediction: Giants 27 Broncos 23
Actual: Broncos 26 Giants 6
I spent an entire paragraph talking about how the Broncos actually were a good team, and their six-game winning streak wasn't smoke and mirrors. Then predicted they would lose. Oops.

Prediction: Falcons 34 Buccaneers 17
Actual: Falcons 20 Buccaneers 17
The Falcons joined the ranks of teams getting surprised by the pesky Bucs. With Matt Ryan out, can they still push for a wildcard birth?

Prediction: Dolphins 24 Bills 16
Actual: Bills 31 Dolphins 14
The Bills defense played one of their best games of the season, and it wasn't just with turnovers. They shut down the Dolphins air game, and contained Ricky Williams enough to keep him from doing much damage.

Prediction: Bengals 31 Browns 14
Actual: Bengals 16 Browns 7
The Bengals haven't had many 'pretty' wins this year, so I guess this is par for the course. 6-0 against the division looks pretty good after 12 weeks. Unfortunately, that guarantees nothing come January.

Prediction: Seahawks 20 Rams 17
Actual: Seahawks 27 Rams 17

Prediction: Panthers 28 Jets 20
Actual: Jets 17 Panthers 6

Prediction: Eagles 23 Washington 19
Actual: Eagles 27 Washington 24

Prediction: Colts 31 Texans 27
Actual: Colts 35 Texans 27

Prediction: Chargers 27 Chiefs 24
Actual: Chargers 43 Chiefs 14

Prediction: Jaguars 17 49ers 14
Actual: 49ers 20 Jaguars 3

Prediction: Vikings 35 Bears 17
Actual: Vikings 36 Bears 10

Prediction: Cardinals 27 Titans 17
Actual: Titans 20 Cardinals 17

Prediction: Ravens 21 Steelers 20
Actual: Ravens 20 Steelers 17 OT

Prediction: Patriots 38 Saints 34
Actual: Saints 38 Patriots 17

Week 12 Picks

Green Bay at Detroit
The Packers destroyed the Lions at Lambeau Field earlier this year. The short week will hurt both teams, especially Detriot, since Matthew Stafford likely won't play. Daunte Culpepper has played Green Bay plenty in his career, but that didn't seem to help in Week 6 (6 of 14 with an interception before being replaced by Drew Stanton). The Lions passing game has come alive with Stafford, and the Packers defense is down Al Harris and Aaron Kampman, so maybe there is hope for Culpepper. Still, the Packers should be able to put up a lot of points against the Lions' wreck of a defense. Packers 30 Lions 22

Oakland at Dallas
Now this is nice: The Raiders, who occasionally look like the NFL's version of the Knicks, will pop up now and then and shock decent teams-like when they beat Philadelphia and Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are like their hometown counterparts the Mavericks: Sometimes they are so pretty, you start to think they can finally get over the hump. Then they get dominated by the Packers and barely beat Washington (at home!). So will we see both teams' good sides? Or both teams' bad sides? Or some combination? Anyway you slice it, this probably won't be fun to watch. Cowboys 16 Raiders 13

NY Giants at Denver
The Giants are like a slightly more palatable version of the Cowboys: They tend to shock you with random off days and random dominating performance, but in the end, they seem to come out looking OK. Denver has two streaks this year: six straight wins, four straight losses. Some think that the rest of the league has caught up, and that Denver is basically finished. But it is hard to ignore the fact that when they were winning, it wasn't on smoke and mirrors; they were playing really solid, sound football. With Kyle Orton starting, they at least have a chance. Giants 27 Broncos 23

Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Falcons need to see Tampa Bay coming to town just like New Orleans needed to see the Buccaneers on their schedule last week. Atlanta has proven that if nothing else, they are not bad. In a lot of ways, they are the most consistent team in the NFL: they never have huge letdown games, and they always bring a dangerous offense and a scrappy defense. It just doesn't always turn into wins. Falcons 34 Buccaneers 17

Miami at Buffalo
For some reason I like the Dolphins. I think Ricky Williams will have success against the Bills defense, and Chad Henne will not be forced to play over his head. I also like Ryan Fitzpatrick's approach this season: he seems to recognize that as the back-up quarterback on a team with little hope in 2009, there is almost no pressure on him. As such, he goes out and plays smart, doesn't try to force anything, and is willing to take a five step drop and chuck the ball long to Terrell Owens or Lee Evans. Sometimes, a team that is struggling on offense needs somebody to step in and just take everything back to basics. It reminds me of when Todd Bouman used to fill in for Daunte Culpepper for the 2001 Vikings: He didn't try to run the offense like he was an all-star. He just came in and threw it up for Randy Moss, and stayed out of the way when he could. Dolphins 24 Bills 16

Cleveland at Cincinnati
The Bengals have lost some head scratchers this year. They started off 0-1 after the Broncos freakish last minute touchdown pass that was actually perfectly defended. Then they somehow lost at home to Houston, and then last week on the road in Oakland. Still, they have won every "big" game on their schedule, that is, they are 5-0 against the AFC North. But, one of their letdowns came in Week 4 against Cleveland. They had to score with 1:55 to tie the game...then missed the extra point that would have put them ahead. Then they came within four seconds (!) of a tie before Shayne Graham hit a 31-yard field goal to seal the victory. The Browns scored more points in Detriot last week than they have in what feels like 10 years, but I think the Bengals will step up this week at home.
Bengals 31 Browns 14

Seattle at St. Louis
The Seahawks are pretty bad, but they do seem to be able to beat teams that are even worse than them--one of their two shut outs this season came against the Rams. Marc Bulger is out, so the Seahawks don't have many excuses if they lose.
Seahawks 20 Rams 17

Carolina at NY Jets

Carolina wins then loses, wins then loses. Mark Sanchez mostly loses. Panthers 28 Jets 20

Washington at Philadelphia

Washington held the Cowboys' offense completely in check, and the Eagles haven't quite been on point the last few weeks. I can't believe how many NFL games Jason Campbell has started. Eagles 23 Washington 19

Indianapolis at Houston

The Colts may not be making it look easy anymore, but they are already closing in on home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Colts 31 Texans 27

Kansas City at San Diego

It is hard not to like the Chiefs after that upset against Pittsburgh. San Diego has been playing very well, and Philip Rivers can avoid the costly turnovers that Ben Roethlisberger didn't. Chargers 27 Chiefs 24

Jacksonville at San Francisco

The 49ers offense does seem to have some life now, but overall they are not able to complete games most of the time. Jacksonville is right in the thick of the playoff race. Jaguars 17 49ers 14

Chicago at Minnesota

If Jay Cutler were going to pick a game to get back on track, this would be the ideal one. The Bears on the verge of seeing their playoff hopes disappear. Vikings 35 Bears 17

Arizona at Tennessee

Once again, I am picking against Vince Young. That seems like a good place to start, I think.Cardinals 27 Titans 17

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Even though these teams are only two game over .500 combined, this is still a great matchup. The loser of this game is in deep trouble, but still neither team will be out of it. Frankly, without Troy Polamalu the Steelers defense can't win games like they used to. Baltimore just needs to start scoring touchdowns instead of field goals. Ravens 21 Steelers 20

New England at New Orleans

I agree with those who don't trust New England's defense. But, I really don't trust the Saints defense. This game will come down to whether the Saints can keep the Patriots offense at bay long enough. Patriots 38 Saints 34

Week 11 Picks Revisited

Seven green winners, 11 right overall out of 16 games played.

Prediction: Panthers 24 Dolphins 17

Actual: Dolphins 24 Panthers 17
When Ronnie Brown went down, it seemed obvious to some of us that the Dolphins were finished. But, as they showed on Thursday, their defense is solid, and they can run the ball. Ever heard of Ricky Williams?

Prediction: Cowboys 20 Washington 18
Actual: Cowboys 7 Washington 6
I didn't see much of this game, but I can imagine it was beyond ugly. The Cowboys didn't score until late in the 4th quarter, and Shaun Suisham missed two field goals that would have made the difference for Washington.

Prediction: Lions 24 Browns 12
Actual: Lions 38 Browns 37
This was the wildest game of the week, if not technically the 'best.' The Browns bucked all the predictions I made: Their offense dominated the terrible Detriot secondary, and their defense completely laid down against Matthew Stafford.

Prediction: Packers 17 49ers 13
Actual: Packers 30 49ers 24
Green Bay won the game, but might have lost a much larger battle. Aaron Kampman and Al Harris each suffered season (maybe career in the case of Harris) injuries. I agree with those who say that the impact of these injuries is somewhat lessened by the fact that neither was turning out to be a good fit in Dom Capers 3-4 scheme, but losing two veteran standouts can't be underestimated, especially with a defense that has been spotty at times.

Prediction: Steelers 24 Chiefs 14
Actual: Chiefs 27 Steelers 24 OT
"I don't think Kansas City will let them run away with it though"- That was how I summed up my prediction for this game. Well, they sure didn't. When they did get pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, it was big-time pressure. Matt Cassell played a solid game, and in the end, the Steelers defense couldn't make plays when they had to.

Prediction: Giants 29 Falcons 27
Actual: Giants 34 Falcons 31 OT
Maybe my most accurate pick this week.

Prediction: Saints 34 Buccaneers 26
Actual: Saints 38 Buccaneers 7
OK, the Saints did get a breather.

Prediction: Bills 16 Jaguars 13
Actual: Jaguars 18 Bills 15
The spirit of my pick was very correct, but I got the teams wrong. The Bills probably should have won this game, but the mistakes they made in the second half proved critical.

Prediction: Colts 34 Ravens 33
Actual: Colts 17 Ravens 15
It turned out that Ravens did summon that old defensive swagger...too bad they could only score field goals. It's getting to the point for Baltimore where being competitive is no longer cutting it.

Prediction: Vikings 28 Seahawks 17
Actual: Vikings 35 Seahawks 9
Minnesota's defense turned in their best game of the season so far.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 Rams 14
Actual: Cardinals 21 Rams 13
Even without Kurt Warner for a long stretch of the game, the Cardinals were able to hold off the lowly-Rams.

Prediction: Patriots 30 Jets 10
Actual: Patriots 31 Jets 14
This is the other candidate for best pick for Week 11. Not a lot to say about this game; kind of hard to believe that the Jets were once 3-0, with a head-to-head victory over New England in hand.

Prediction: Bengals 20 Raiders 7
Actual: Raiders 20 Bengals 17
It's mostly a fluke the way the game ended, but as we always say, if the Raiders hadn't been in a situation where it was possible to kick the game-winning field goal with 17 seconds left, it wouldn't have mattered if the Bengals dropped a fluky-fumble

Prediction: Chargers 27 Broncos 17

Actual: Chargers 32 Broncos 3
Chris Simms didn't really get a chance. He was yanked to make way for the hobbled Kyle Orton, who sparked the offense for all of 47 seconds. Yikes.

Prediction: Eagles 34 Bears 24
Actual: Eagles 24 Bears 20
Jay Cutler only threw one interception...and it was on the final Bears possession, when they had a chance to drive for a game-winning touchdown. Plus, he over threw three wide open receivers that had nothing between themselves and the end zone. Yuck.

Prediction: Texans 30 Titans 20

Actual: Titans 20 Texans 17
To answer the question about Vince Young being able to play well in four straight games...he played good enough. No turnovers, and the Titans won. Kris Brown and Shaun Suisham should get together this week, and talk missed field goals.

Box Score of The Day: November 19

November 19, 1990

In Week 11 of the 1990 season the 8-1 Miami Dolphins hosted the 6-3 Los Angeles Raiders on Monday Night Football. Both teams started 6-1, but the Raiders came into Miami off a two-game losing streak, having lost on the road in Kansas City, and at home to the Green Bay Packers. The Dolphins meanwhile, had a streak of their own: six wins in a row. With a bye-week sandwiched in that run, the Dolphins had lost since a 20-3 drubbing at the hands of the eventual Super Bowl-champion New York Giants on September 23.

During their six-game winning streak the Dolphins were giving up only 7.5 points a game, and they came into the Week 11 matchup with Los Angeles having not given up an offensive touchdown in 12 quarters—three whole games. Dan Marino was having a somewhat modest season; his rating was just over 79 and he had just 10 touchdowns against eight interceptions through nine games. The Dolphins were running the ball well, mostly thanks to Sammie Smith, who led the team with 501 yards and six touchdowns. Veteran fullback Tony Paige led the team with 30 receptions, and Mark Duper, Mark Clayton, and Jim Jenson all had 20 catches or more.

The Raiders relied on a slightly different approach. Jay Schroeder had almost identical stats to Marino: eight touchdowns and seven interceptions, with a quarterback rating of 78.5. But the Raiders ran the ball a lot. They had run the ball over 260 times, compared to the Dolphins 176 rushing attempts. But in their last two games, both loses, the Raiders had managed a total of only 149 yards on the ground.

That changed on this Monday night. The game started slow, with neither team scoring in the first quarter, before the Raiders scored 10 points in the second quarter, including a 2-yard Marcus Allen touchdown run. The Dolphins got what would be their only touchdown on a 14-yard pass from Dan Marino to Scott Schwedes near the end of the half. The Raiders stubbornly battered away on the ground in the first half, out-rushing the Dolphins 104 yards to 3.

The second half went about the same, with the Raiders defense giving up almost nothing. Los Angeles added a field goal in the third, and the Dolphins Pete Stoyanovich pulled Miami back within three points with a 26-yard field goal four minutes into the 4th quarter. But that is where the scoring ended. The Dolphins finished with only 14 yards on 12 carries, while Allen and Bo Jackson ran 19 and 17 times respectively, and Raiders grinded out a 13-10 victory. Miami had come into the game knowing that the Buffalo Bills were already 9-1, and they finished the night one game back of the eventual AFC champions.

The Dolphins finished the regular season at 12-4, and one a playoff game before losing to the Bills for a third time in 1990 in the AFC Divisional round. The Raiders maintained their lead over the rest of the AFC West, and went on to win that division with a 12-4 record...and then lose to the Bills in the AFC Championship.

Here's the recap from the New York Times

And the box score from ProFootballReference.com

Box Score of the Day: November 18

November 18, 1996

In Week 12 of the 1996 season, the 6-4 Cowboys hosted the 8-2 Packers on Monday Night Football. The Packers, in the middle of a rare three-game road trip, had just lost to the Kansas City Chiefs, despite coming back from a 27-6 third quarter deficit to pull within a score. Still 8-2, the Packers had a three-game lead over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Central. The Cowboys, meanwhile, came in having won five of their last six games, overcoming a 1-3 start to reassert themselves as an NFC power. The defending Super Bowl champions were still one of the league's best defenses, but were having trouble passing the ball effectively.

This rivalry had been rekindled in the 1990s when the Cowboys rose back to the top of the NFL, and Brett Favre and Reggie White made the Packers relevant for the first time in 20 years. The last time the teams met, the Cowboys beat Green Bay decidedly in the 1995 NFC Championship. In fact, the Cowboys had knocked the Packers out of the playoffs in 1994 and 1993.

The Packers played this Monday night game with out their starting receivers Robert Brooks and Antonio Freeman, and with out starting tight end Mark Chumura. The Packers were unable to move the ball in the first half, and punted on every possession in the first two quarters. The Cowboys were able to move the ball just fine, but couldn't put the ball in the end zone. They led 15-0 on five Chris Boniol field goals, all 45 yards or shorter.

The Packers didn't score until the last two minutes of the game on a touchdown pass from Favre to Derrick Mayes, making the score 18-6. The Packers missed the two-point conversion, and after Boniol put three more points on the board for Dallas, he had made more field goals (7) than the Packers had scored points (6). The 21-6 final was the ugly confirmation of an ugly game between two NFL power houses.

The Cowboys finished the 1996 season 10-6, and won a playoff game for the sixth straight season when they rolled the Vikings 40-15. Their season came to end the following week in Carolina, where they lost to the upstart Panthers. The Packers would not lose another game in 1996. They put together a six-game winning streak to end the season and won three playoff games, including the Super Bowl, by two touchdowns or more.

Week 11 Picks

I've been obsessed with Tecmo Super Bowl and the NFL seasons 1988-1992, so I decided to ponder what each of this week's matchups would have been like if the game had been played in the 1990 season.

Miami at Carolina
This is actually a pretty big game—after each team started 0-3, that probably didn't look likely, but now we have a matchup of two of the better running teams in the league. Carolina actually is playing like a team that could make the playoffs. Panthers 24 Dolphins 17

If they played in 1990: The Panthers didn't exist, so I guess Dan Marino would have a bye week.

Washington at Dallas
Washington came up with a big win for the downtrodden team last week, taking advantage of the Chris Simms-led Broncos. Dallas laid a huge egg in Green Bay. Maybe Washington can make things hard on the Cowboys? I'm scared to actually pick them to win though. Cowboys 20 Washington 18

When they played in 1990: The up-and-coming Cowboys actually split the season series with Washington on their way to a 7-9 record, even though Troy Aikman threw four interceptions in the two games.

Cleveland at Detroit
Epic matchup of one-win teams. Cleveland's defense had a nice game against Baltimore on Monday night. Detriot looked like an awful mess against Minnesota. But, the Browns can't score points, so it will be hard to win any games. Lions 24 Browns 12

If they played in 1990: This actually would have been a similarly ugly matchup 19 years ago. After nine games in 1990, these teams had combined for only five wins. Luckily these two teams didn't play that season. The Browns roster actually still had a lot of the guys that had taken them to a bunch of AFC Championships in the 1980s(including the previous season), but they were not producing similar results. They already had 21 turnovers through nine games, and that number sky rocketed in the final seven games (thanks in large part to a nine-turnover game in Pittsburgh). The Lions, meanwhile, gave up 122 or more yards rushing in 14 of 16 games. Wow. Somehow they weren't even last in the league in run defense, though they were last in total defense.

San Francisco at Green Bay
The Packers bounced back in a big way this week, trouncing the Cowboys to get back over .500. But now they will face a 49ers defense that will give Ryan Grant no room to run. As long as Vernon Davis doesn't score 12 touchdowns, the Packers ought to win another tough home game. Packers 17 49ers 13

If they played in 1990: These teams didn't play in 1990, but if they had, it is safe to assume that the 49ers would have crushed them. The Packers followed a suprising 10-6 1989 season with a 6-10 showing in 1990. The offense, with Anthony Dilweg starting seven games, was not especially good, and the defense wasn't any better. The 49ers were 14-2 behind Joe Montana's last full season as a starter for the 49ers, and Jerry Rice's first 100-reception season.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City
The Steelers are sore from their home loss to the Bengals, and this should be a good chance to bounce back against the two-win Chiefs. I don't think Kansas City will let them run away with it though. Steelers 24 Chiefs 14

If they played in 1990: It's too bad that these two teams didn't meet in 1990. The Chiefs had a huge offense: Christian Okoye ran for 805 yards, and Barry Word had 1,015. Five receivers tallied over 40 catches from Steve DeBerg, who had a stunning 23-4 touchdown-interception ratio. The Steelers had the league's number one defense in terms of yardage, and gave up just nine passing touchdowns...and grabbed 24 interceptions, a pretty nice ratio.

Atlanta at NY Giants
The Giants need to win. They haven't since they beat Oakland on October 11. Atlanta needs to beat a good team. They haven't since they beat the Vikings in Week 16 last year. I like the Giants in this one, but it won't be easy. Giants 29 Falcons 27.

If they played in 1990: Fortunately for the 1990 Falcons, they avoided a game against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants. Atlanta threw the ball well, mostly Chris Miller to Andre Rison, but managed to lose seven straight games, none by more than 12 points (though they turned the ball over 20 times during that stretch). The Giants were 13-3, largely thanks to a defense that ranked 4th against the run and 6th against the pass.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
The Saints could use a breather. They are straping by against teams that they should be beating easily. The Buccaneers have played two good games with Josh Freeman at the helm, and might be able to ride that and their home crowd to an upset...but they won't. Saints 34 Buccaneers 26

When they played in 1990: The 3-5 Saints crushed the 4-5 Buccaneers 35-7. The Bucs actually led 7-0 after a 12-yard Chris Chandler touchdown run. Then the Saints scored 35 unanswered points, with four rushing TDs by Rueben Mayes and Craig Hayward. Neither team finished with a winning record. All very forgettable.

Buffalo at Jacksonville
The Bills made a big move by firing Dick Jauron (the week after their bye for some reason). The move can't hurt them too much, since Jauron wasn't exactly an inspiring force in Buffalo. Hopefully they come out fired up, and not hung over. Bills 16 Jaguars 13

1990: The Jags didn't exist!

Indianapolis at Baltimore
The Colts used to play in Baltimore, and the Ravens used to be the Browns. The Ravens got a week off to stomp on the hapless Browns. Their defense better call back some of that old Ravens-magic, because, as we know, the Colts win a lot. Colts 34 Ravens 33

If they played in 1990: The Colts and Browns didn't play, sadly. Basically read the above about a Browns-Lions matchup, and apply here. The Colts were 27th in offense, 26 in defense, but managed to win seven games, going 5-3 in the second half of the season.

Seattle at Minnesota
The Seahawks are still barely alive in the NFC playoff race (and the NFC West division title race, actually). Unless the Vikings offense completely falls apart, it is hard to see Seattle winning. Vikings 28 Seahawks 17

When they played in 1990: The Vikings beat Seattle 24-21 in Week 11, just before the Seahawks won five of their last six to finish 9-7. Minnesota score the final 10 points in the game, wrapping up the win on a 24-yard Fuad Reveiz field goal. Here is a preview of the game from the Seattle Times, in which Gil Lyons warns the Seahawks to watch out for the Vikings running game and defensive end Chris Doleman. The Vikings ran OK, and neither team threw very well, but the Vikings had only one sack.

Arizona at St. Louis
The Rams nearly upset the Saints, and following that, one might expect them to pull the same trick on the Cardinals. But I think the Cardinals know them well enough not to take this game lightly (they've beaten St. Louis five straight times), plus they need to continue to put distance between themselves and the 49ers and Seahawks. Cardinals 27 Rams 14

If they played in 1990: Back then, the Rams played in Los Angeles and the Cardinals, who had just moved from St. Louis, were called the Phoenix Cardinals. The Cardinals and Rams finished with the same record in 1990: 5-11. Both had very bad defenses, but the Rams and Jim Everett threw the ball pretty well. I think the Rams would have pulled this one out.

NY Jets at New England
The Patriots don't lose two consecutive games. They just don't. What terrible justification. Really, it's because Mark Sanchez is going to implode early. Patriots 30 Jets 10

When they played in 1990: You know you are bad when you finish five games behind a division rival...and that division rival is only 6-10. That's what the 1990 Patriots did, going 1-15 and doing so in style: They fielded the 3rd worst offense in the league, and ranked 27th on defense, with a final point differential of -265. The Jets were major contributors to that differential, winning 37-13 and 42-7 against the Pats.

Cincinnati at Oakland
The Bengals might have a little let down coming off their huge win over Pittsburgh, but that won't be enough for Oakland to win. Bengals 20 Raiders 7

When they played in 1990: The Raiders dominated the Bengals 24-7 to improve to 10-4 and seemingly ending the Bengals playoff hopes, dropping them to 7-7. But, the Bengals won their final two games and beat Houston in the AFC Wildcard round, earning themselves a date in the divisional round with...the Raiders. And, the second time around, the Raiders won again, this time 20-10. The Raiders ran for 480 yards in the two games. Wow.

San Diego at Denver
With Chris Simms at the helm, the Broncos can't win this game. At least, I don't think so. Chargers 27 Broncos 17

When they played in 1990: The Chargers and Broncos split the season series in 1990. Neither made the playoffs.

Philadelphia at Chicago
Jay Cutler can't keep throwing so many interceptions if the Bears hope to win any games. The Bears actually seem to respond OK after big let downs; they'll need to this week. Eagles 34 Bears 24

If they played in 1990: Sadly, no Eagles-Bears game in 1990 took place. Buddy Ryan had left the Bears after the 1985 Super Bowl season, and built the league's best defense in Philadelphia. The Eagles lost in their first playoff game after going 10-6. The Bears were the only NFC Central team not to finish 6-10, and they won a home playoff game agaisnt New Orleans before being crushed by the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants.

Tennessee at Houston
The Texans have a chance to fully assert themselves in the AFC Wildcard race, but the Titans bring in a three-game winning streak. I don't like testing fate; vince Young can't have four straight good games, right? Texans 30 Titans 20

If they played in 1990: Unfortunately, the Texans did not exist. Err...is that unfortunate? Oh, and the Titans were the Oilers, but whatever.

Week 9 Picks Revisited

8 green, 10 total winners out of 13 games. Got the Bengals and Patriots points correct (but didn't pick the Bengals to win).

Prediction: Falcons 27 Washington 13
Actual: Falcons 31 Washington 17
Four points off on each side. Another Todd Collins sighting this week. I'll be interested to see who signs Jason Campbell next season. It is hard to imagine Washington wanting him, and even harder to imagine him wanting to stay. Likely he will go sit on the bench for a year or two before he gets another shot, but I think there is still some hope for him. As Kyle Orton has shown, guys who have played a lot of games can be pretty valuable, even if they aren't the future of the franchise.

Prediction: Cardinals 24 Bears 17
Actual: Cardinals 41 Bears 21
Another 'bounce back' game for Kurt Warner. The Bears suddenly can't stay with decent teams. Meanwhile, the NFC West has let the Cards build a two-game lead. The Cards are 4-0 on the road.

Prediction: Ravens 27 Bengals 17
Actual: Bengals 17 Ravens 7
I can't hide it: I like teams that play and win like the Bengals. Low scoring, stingy defense, really good cornerbacks... Even if they don't go far in the playoffs, I like what they are doing this season.

Prediction: Colts 30 Texans 24
Actual: Colts 20 Texans 17
The Texans have been a play away from winning a few games this season, and Sunday they once again blew a chance to assert themselves as an AFC threat. Credit is due to Kris Brown for his 56-yarder as time expired in the first half...too bad he missed a 42-yarder as time expired in the game.

Prediction: Patriots 27 Dolphins 23
Actual: Patriots 27 Dolphins 17
So is the Wildcat for real or not? It seems too inconsistent; it is great that they beat the Jets with it, but bad when they lose because they can't do anything other than the Wildcat. Chad Henne has started to look more like a first-year starter of late, but still looks pretty dern good.

Prediction: Packers 31 Bucs 13
Actual: Buccaneers 38 Packers 28
The Packers have a terrible offensive line. Their defense doesn't give up much yardage, but plenty of points. See you next September.

Prediction: Jaguars 20 Chiefs 13
Actual: Jaguars 24 Chiefs 21
Furious comeback by the Cheifs (and Chris Chambers), but the Jags pull out another win, keeping them at .500.

Prediction: Saints 28 Panthers 14
Actual: Saints 30 Panthers 20
This was actually a game until the Panthers fumbled inside their own five yard line. The Saints still can't stop the run, but with Drew Brees throwing like this, they will be OK.

Prediction: Seahawks 27 Lions 19
Actual: Seahawks 32 Lions 20
The Lions blew a 17-0 first quarter lead. Ouch.

Prediction: 49ers 17 Titans 9
Actual: Titans 34 49ers 27
It is becoming pretty clear that the 49ers were not ready to be a playoff team this year.

Prediction: Chargers 27 Giants 26
Actual: Chargers 21 Giants 20
Margin of victory correct! Phillip Rivers led the charge when they really needed it. The Giants make a lot of boneheaded plays, and fall apart at really strange times.

Prediction: Cowboys 28 Eagles 21
Actual: Cowboys 20 Eagles 16
There was a little less offense than I expected. But in the end, the Eagles couldn't convert 3rd downs, and the Cowboys were steady enough on offense to put it away in the 4th quarter.

Prediction: Steelers 23 Broncos 20, OT
Actual: Steelers 28 Broncos 10
The Steelers basically dominated this game, but subtly. The Broncos stayed close for most of the game, but only ran for 27 yards, and scored their lone touchdown on defense.

Week 9 Picks

Washington at Atlanta
The Falcons can't seem to beat the league's best teams, but they do play a consistent and solid brand of football. Washington is the opposite. Falcons 27 Washington 13

Arizona at Chicago
The Cardinals rely on one stat: Kurt Warner's interceptions. In games they have lost he throws a lot. The Bears need to find a way to move the ball on the ground, which they haven't really done. Arizona is 8th in the league in run defense. Cardinals 24 Bears 17

Baltimore at Cincinnati
The Ravens got back on track last week by dominating the Broncos. This could be the best game of the week, and I expect the Ravens to avenge their Week 5 loss at home to the Bengals. Ravens 27 Bengals 17

Houston at Indianapolis
The Colts quietly have put together one of the better defenses in the NFL. When the Texans can run the ball (without fumbling, Steve Slaton), they have one of the league's best offenses. I like Payton Manning to continue to roll. Colts 30 Texans 24

Miami at New England
New England was the first victim of the Wildcat in 2008. The Dolphins made the Patriots old linebackers look ancient on the way to a 38-13 win in New England. Two months later in Miami the Patriots gave up just 66 yards rushing, and racked up 48 points and over 500 yards of offense in a 48-28 win. My guess is that this week's game will settle somewhere between those extremes, and Tom Brady will be the difference. Patriots 27 Dolphins 23

Green Bay at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers will wear those old white/creamsicle uniforms, and just in time! The Buccaneers were famously bad for most of their history while wearing the creamsicle outfit, and in 2009 they've returned to the NFL cellar. The Packers need a pick-me-up after the Vikings (and Brent) completely a season sweep up in Lambeau. Packers 31 Bucs 13

Kansas City at Jacksonville
Maybe the toughest game of the week. The Jags swing violently from competent to horrendous, and the Chiefs play the most spirited losing football we've seen in years. Jaguars 20 Chiefs 13

Carolina at New Orleans
The Panthers, as a team, probably aren't as bad as their 3-4 record, but their quarterback certainly is. Jake Delhomme had a better game last week against Arizona, but the Saints, who have intercepted everybody this year, must be chomping at the bit. Saints 28 Panthers 14

Detroit at Seattle
The Lions stink. Seahawks 27 Lions 19

Tennessee at San Francisco
The Titans finally logged a victory. San Francisco's defense is going to make Tennessee look really bad. As long as Alex Smith plays OK, the 49ers should control this one from start to finish. 49ers 17 Titans 9

San Diego at NY Giants
Yes, we remember that San Diego drafted Eli Manning, then had to trade him to the Giants. Blah, blah, blah. This is a real toss up to me: Chargers 27 Giants 26

Dallas at Philadelphia
Another toughy. The absolute worst time to pick Dallas is when they are hot. They are extremely hot right now. The Eagles reliance on big plays probably won't be exposed against the Cowboys, but I like Dallas; the Cowboys can play a little ball-control and rack up a lot of yards against Philly's so-so defensive front. Cowboys 28 Eagles 21

Pittsburgh at Denver
I really don't want to pick this game. I don't think Denver can move the ball against Pittsburgh. But I also think Denver will keep it close. I guess I'll fall back on Ben Roethlisberger. Steelers 23 Broncos 20, OT.

Week 8 Picks Revisited

This week I got 8 greens and 10 of 13 winners correct.

Prediction: Texans 24 Bills 16
Actual: Texans 31 Bills 10
The weather ended up being a non-factor, and the Texans pulled away from the Bills after a terrible fake punt by Buffalo.

Prediction: Bears 27 Browns 17
Actual: Bears 30 Browns 6
Initially, it looked like Chicago would let the Browns hang around--their first three trips into the red zone netted just 9 points--but the Bears pulled away and stayed up big.

Prediction: Cowboys 30 Seahawks 24
Actual: Cowboys 38 Seahawks 17
Tony Romo had another really good game. If he keeps this up, the Cowboys are a real threat in the NFC.

Prediction: Rams 20 Lions 19
Actual: Rams 17 Lions 10
Not pretty at all, but the Rams finally get a win.

Prediction: Ravens 27 Broncos 24
Actual: Ravens 30 Broncos 7
I wasn't expecting the Ravens to have a safe lead the entire game. A huge win for Baltimore in the crowded AFC North

Prediction: Colts 28 49ers 14
Actual: Colts 18 49ers 14
The 49ers defense really stepped up, but the Colts are just too persistent. Even when you contain them, they score enough points to win.

Prediction: Dolphins 31 Jets 20
Actual: Dolphins 30 Jets 25
The Jets didn't do a bad job against Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, but their special teams completely blew this one.

Prediction: Giants 30 Eagles 20
Actual: Eagles 40 Giants 17
The Giants couldn't stop the big play, and we know that is how the Eagles like to win. What is the deal with DeSean Jackson?

Prediction: Titans 20 Jaguars 13
Actual: Titans 30 Jaguars 13
Jeff Fisher is too good a coach to let the Titans fall to 0-7 against another cellar-dweller like the Jags. Or something like that. Nice, solid game for Vince Young.

Prediction: Chargers 27 Raiders 7
Actual: Chargers 24 Raiders 16
Why can't the Chargers put the Raiders away? Both times this season they've let the Raiders keep to close to the end.

Prediction: Cardinals 24 Panthers 14
Actual: Panthers 34 Cardinals 21
The Panthers are officially the least-predictable team in the league, and the Cardinals are a close second.

Prediction: Vikings 31 Packers 30
Actual: Vikings 38 Packers 26
The Packers had a chance in the second half, but Brett Favre put them away...just like he used to do when he was their quarterback!

Prediction: Falcons 27 Saints 21
Actual: Saints 35 Falcons 27
The Falcons were a team of extremes last night. Make an amazing play to intercept Drew Brees, throw it right to Jabari Greer. Jump on Brees before he can even complete his drop one pay, give him five seconds to throw the next. Neither team played good run defense, but the Saints defensive touchdowns are barely a fluke anymore. How many is that? 17 already?

Week 8 Predictions

Houston at Buffalo

The weather is going to be a factor, but if Matt Schaub can avoid Jarius Byrd, the Texans should be OK.
Texans 24 Bills 16

Cleveland at Chicago

Coming off an embarrassing loss against Cincinnati, the Bears get a chance to right the ship. The Browns shouldn't present much of a problem.
Bears 27 Browns 17

Seattle at Dallas
With any luck, the Cowboys understand the importance of running the ball, especially since they do it as well as anybody. But, would we be shocked if they followed Tony Romo's huge game last week against Atlanta by ignoring the run? I still think they will win.
Cowboys 30 Seahawks 24

St. Louis at Detroit

The Rams get their first win of the season...maybe? The Lions cannot stop the pass, and Mar Bulger is capable of making big plays with his arm. I guess that's all I have to go on.
Rams 20 Lions 19

Denver at Baltimore
This is a great match-up. The Ravens are desperate for a win, and both teams are coming off their byes. Even though I think the Broncos are a very solid and balanced team, I think the Ravens will find a way to win (Joe Flacco).
Ravens 27 Broncos 24

San Francisco at Indianapolis

This might have been a chance to try an upset pick. But I just don't believe that the 49ers can keep the Colts offense at bay for more than a quarter or two.
Colts 28 49ers 14

Miami at NY Jets

I'm sure the Jets will come up with a better game plan this time around, and will do a better job against the Wildcat, but Mark Sanchez will hold them back.
Dolphins 31 Jets 20

NY Giants at Philadelphia

I like the Giants to hold off the Eagles offensive attack, and pull away late.
Giants 30 Eagles 20

Jacksonville at Tennessee

This is a hard one. Vince Young is finally starting. The Jaguars are terrible. The Titans are terrible...
Titans 20 Jaguars 13

Oakland at San Diego

Big day for Phillip Rivers.
Chargers 27 Raiders 7

Carolina at Arizona

This was a huge playoff game last season, when Jake Delhomme turned the ball over 45 times and the Cardinals crushed the Panthers. Kurt Warner is playing better, and the Cardinals defense has been surprisingly stingy lately.
Cardinals 24 Panthers 14

Minnesota at Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers will put up big numbers, and Brett Favre will have to lead the Vikings to a 4th quarter comeback.
Vikings 31 Packers 30

Atlanta at New Orleans
I've decided to stubborning pick against the Saints until I am finally right.
Falcons 27 Saints 21

Week 7 Picks Revisted

Packers 27 Browns 13
Packers 31 Browns 3
This was an incredible week for blowouts. I am going to be generous with the green here, even though I gave the Browns far more credit (which wasn't much) than they deserved.

Chargers 21 Chiefs 16
Chargers 37 Chiefs 7
I almost want to mark this was as red (for wrong). The Chiefs weren't pesky at all!

Colts 34 Rams 13
Colts 42 Rams 6

Vikings 28 Steelers 27
Steelers 27 Vikings 17
I got the Steelers score right at least! Pittsburgh's defense had a huge game, including a goal line stand that held Minnesota to three points, and two 4th quarter defensive touchdowns.

Patriots 31 Buccaneers 17
Patriots 35 Buccaneers 7
Hey, two in a row for the Pats. Blowouts I mean.

Texans 24 49ers 17
Texans 24 49ers 21
I certainly did not see San Francisco overcoming a 21-0 deficit, especially behind Alex Smith, but this is about as close to nailing a prediction as I can come.

Bills 17 Panthers 13
Bills 20 Panthers 9
Well, that's three greens in a row. The Bills did just as I expected: took advantage of Jake Delhomme, and chipped away on offense.

Jets 20 Raiders 12
Jets 38 Raiders 0
Again, one could argue that I got this one 'wrong.' I mean, sure, I picked the Jets to win, but 20-12 and 38-0 are miles apart.

Falcons 27 Cowboys 20
Cowboys 37 Falcons 21
Leaning on conventional Tony Romo-wisdom sunk me. He had one of his best games ever (maybe the best: 21 of 29, 311 yards, 3 touchdowns, no interceptions, and 31 yards rushing), and Atlanta couldn't stay within striking distance.

Bengals 17 Bears 10
Bengals 45 Bears 10
I was mostly wrong. Who knew the Bengals would obliterate Chicago?

Dolphins 20 Saints 17
Saints 46 Dolphins 34
This pick looked dead-on for most of the game, even into the 4th quarter. But the Saints scored on their final four drives (24 points), and when Chad Henne had to start throwing, the Dolphins were done.

Giants 27 Cardinals 23
Cardinals 24 Giants 17
If you didn't know any better, you might think the Cardinals were the recent NFC Champion with a reputation for tough defense and grinding out wins playing in this game. Every time a play needed to be made, the Cardinals seemed to come up with something.

Eagles 30 Washington 17
Eagles 27 Washington 17
Oh, weird, that thing about being only three points off in the Houston-San Francisco game being my best pick ever...I guess it is tied now. Jason Campbell looked like he was following the direction of Jon Gruden and Ron Jawarski, who were in the Monday Night Football booth going on and on about how Campbell refuses to hang in the pocket, and has no confidence in his offensive line; every time they would bring it up, Campbell would take the next snap, drop back, and then tip-toe forward into the pocket and spike a short pass (off one foot) into the dirt in front of one of his receivers. Uck.

So, that's six of 13 in the green, and nine of 13 winners, plus two extremely close guesses on scores.

Week 7 Predictions

Green Bay @ Cleveland
The Browns are sick. I'm not sure it makes a difference whether they are sick or recovered or OK. Their only bet is too run the ball and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. Packers 27 Browns 13

San Diego @ Kansas City
The Chiefs will likely be pesky, but the Chargers are good enough to hold them off. It is always weird when great players of the near past (Ladainian Tomlinson) become sort of inconsequential. Chargers 21 Chiefs 16

Indianapolis @ St. Louis
The Rams really are not capable of staying with good teams. There is no reason why the Colts shouldn't blow them out. Colts 34 Rams 13

Minnesota @ Pittsburgh
I can't pick against the Vikings can I? I really think Ben Roethlisberger will have a big day. Plus, Pittsburgh is generally pretty clutch on offense in the 4th quarter. But, both defenses have struggled in 4th quarters this season, Brett Favre is as likely to throw the last touchdown in this game as Roethlisberger is. Vikings 28 Steelers 27

New England @ Tampa Bay
We've learned not to get caught up in the Patriots the last two seasons; they have had trouble maintaining momentum from week to week. But, if Brady is indeed 'back,' the Buccaneers are in trouble. Patriots 31 Buccaneers 17

San Francisco @ Houston
This could be another one of the Texans let downs. They have a knack for losing just when they appear to be on the cusp of a winning streak. The 49ers certainly will challenge them, but San Francisco can't really score. Texans 24 49ers 17

Buffalo @ Carolina
The Panthers finally won a couple, but they haven't looked good doing it. The Bills had six interceptions last week, and I expect a couple more against Jake Delhomme. Bills 17 Panthers 13

NY Jets @ Oakland
The Raiders inability to get into the end zone will sink them, even though Mark Sanchez will give them the ball a couple times. Jets 20 Raiders 12

Atlanta @ Dallas
The Cowboys and Falcons are somewhat similar teams, though the Falcons seem to play a little more consistently. Both can play decent defense at times, and both are capable of putting up a lot of points. I think the Falcons will keep up their level-headedness, and Tony Romo will blow it. Falcons 27 Cowboys 20

Chicago @ Cincinnati
The Bears are showing a startling ability to keep games extremely close, despite hardly ever scoring touchdowns. The Bengals defense didn't play well against Houston, but they should get a few chances to pick Jay Cutler off. Bengals 17 Bears 10

New Orleans @ Miami
It's time for me to pick a real upset. The Saints passing offense can be slowed down (two AFC East opponents have showed that), and the Dolphins are very good at keeping their offense on the field. If Drew Brees makes any mistakes, I think the Dolphins will capitalize. Dolphins 20 Saints 17

Arizona @ NY Giants
This one will come down to the Giants red zone defense. I see them forcing a lot of field goal attempts, and scoring just enough to take home the victory. Giants 27 Cardinals 23

Philadelphia @ Washington
The Eagles were embarrassed last week by the Raiders, but Washington probably won't present a similar road bump. More Todd Collins, please! Eagles 30 Washington 17

Week Six Predictions Revistited

Prediction: Bengals 23 Texans 13
Reality: Texans 28 Bengals 17
The Bengals defense couldn't slow down Matt Schaub. Although I like Carson Palmer and the Bengals offense, they don't score a ton of points.

Prediction: Packers 34 Lions 21
Reality: Packers 26 Lions 0
As expected, Aaron Rodgers had a huge game. Daunte Culpepper was hobbled, and the Lions offense was awful. The Packers managed only 3.6 yards per carry, and at one point in the 3rd quarter that number was close to 2.0. Whatever works.

Prediction: Vikings 27 Ravens 23
Reality: Vikings 33 Ravens 31
Well, both teams were able to throw. The Ravens just didn't start until the 4th quarter. An embarrassing near-collapse for the Vikings--they really need Antoine Winfield in the lineup.

Prediction: Giants 20 Saints 17
Reality: Saints 48 Giants 27
This was predicated on the thought that the Saints wouldn't be able to jump out to an early lead as they have against all of their opponents this year. That thought was wrong. The Giants scored a lot, but the Saints pretty much dominated.

Prediction: Steelers 31 Browns 6
Reality: Steelers 27 Browns 14
I can't give myself the green on this one. I predicted a blow-out. This was maybe a slow crushing at best.

Prediction: Panthers 19 Buccaneers 13
Reality: Panthers 28 Buccaneers 21
This game reaffirmed a few things: the Buccaneers are terrible; the Panthers are really bad; and Jake Delhomme is worse.

Prediction: Washington 24 Chiefs 21
Reality: Chiefs 14 Washington 6
I didn't have the guts to pick an 0-5 team. Washington is about as bad as a team can be at 2-4. Get a new owner, then a new coach.

Prediction: Jaguars 24 Rams 13
Reality: Jaguars 23 Rams 20 OT
The Rams actually led for a lot of this game. I'm sort of shocked by how many teams are just flat out terrible this year (including Jacksonville and St. Louis).

Prediction: Seahawks 28 Cardinals 21
Reality: Cardinals 27 Seahawks 3
This isn't the worst pick of the week, but probably the wrong-est. The Cardinals took it to the Seahawks from the opening drive, in Seattle.

Prediction: Eagles 34 Raiders 17
Reality: Raiders 13 Eagles 9
Again, not the worst pick ever. I don't think anybody picked Oakland in this one. Why do Donovan McNabb and the Eagles always turn in a couple horrendous games each year?

Prediction: Patriots 31 Titans 17
Reality: Patriots 59 Titans 0
Not hard to pick the winner here, but 59 points? The Patriots love the snow, and Tom Brady dominated. Maybe Jeff Fisher will get fired, and a team that I like will hire him...

Prediction: Jets 27 Bills 20
Reality: Bills 16 Jets 13 OT
Got this one wrong happily. Mark Sanchez is a really bad quarterback right now, and, frankly, is the Jets defense that scary?

Prediction: Falcons 30 Bears 24
Reality: Falcons 21 Bears 14
The Bears could have won. The Falcons defense isn't great, but they get the job done, and that is what matters. Matt Ryan will be the 'best quarterback in the league" at some point in his career.

Denver at San Diego
After watching the Broncos come back to beat the Patriots last week, I feel like they are more than for real--they are one of the better teams in the league. So, I will not begin picking them to win, and likely be wrong more than right.
Broncos 17 Chargers 16

Week Six Predictions

Houston at Cincinnati
As inconsistent as the Texans are, it is hard to pin down how they will play on the road against Cincinnati. I expect the Bengals to continue their stout defensive play, and to score enough on Houston's poor defense to win.
Bengals 23 Texans 13

Detroit at Green Bay
Although the Lions could score a lot in this game, that hasn't led to success for them so far this year. The Packers have to win this divisional home game, or else things could get pretty ugly for them. Most importantly, the Packers are better than the Lions, and should exploit a bad secondary.
Packers 34 Lions 21

Baltimore at Minnesota
If the Vikings can throw against Baltimore, they should win. If Baltimore can throw against Minnesota, they should win. My guess is that both quarterbacks (assuming the Ravens don't knock Brett Favre out) will have pretty good games. It's a toss up. I'm going with the Vikings great red zone defense.
Vikings 27 Ravens 23

NY Giants at New Orleans
The big question is whether the Giants can move the ball against a good defense. Or maybe the real question is whether the Saints actually have a good defense? We know the Giants do, and if the Saints are not able to jump out to an early lead, as they have all season, will the defense still look as dangerous? I think not. If this comes down to a physical, ball control, who-can-outlast-the-other type of game, I have to go with the Giants.
Giants 20 Saints 17

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Get one defender back, lose another. The Steelers really shouldn't have any trouble this week.
Steelers 31 Browns 6

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Although Tampa Bay is awful, and the Panthers could roll up a big win on Sunday, I think the Buccaneers will play OK at home, and keep it close.
Panthers 19 Buccaneers 13

Kansas City at Washington
A real head scratcher, here. Although Washington is the most unreliable team in the league (two years running), the Chiefs seem to only muster up that special bend-bend-bend-break style of keeping games close at home. So, I guess I have to pick Washington.
Washington 24 Chiefs 21

St. Louis at Jacksonville
If the Rams are going to win a game this year, Jacksonville seems like their best opportunity. The Rams played pretty decent run defense against Minnesota, so let's not assume Maurice Jones-Drew will have a huge day. Still, I think even Jacksonville's bad offense can move the ball against the Rams.
Jaguars 24 Rams 13

Arizona at Seattle
If this game was at Arizona, I might flip-flop. But the Seahawks have some confidence now with Matt Hasselbeck back in the lineup. And their defense isn't too bad.
Seahawks 28 Cardinals 21

Philadelphia at Oakland
Eagles 34 Raiders 17

Tennessee at New England
New England, at home, against an 0-5 team? Used to be automatic, but now the Patriots will have to work a little hard than we're used to--in order to win by double digits.
Patriots 31 Titans 17

Buffalo at NY Jets
I don't think the Bills will play a third consecutive awful game. They've shown year in and year out that one thing they are not is consistently good or bad. I think they will show up this week, and lose. I don't buy into the idea that Rex Ryan will light a fire under his team just because they lost one game.
Jets 27 Bills 20

Chicago at Atlanta
Last year the Bears shocked the Falcons by scoring late and seemingly stealing a win from the Falcons with under 30 seconds remaining. Then the Falcons hit a field goal as time expired in one of the wildest finishes of the 2008 season. This time, I think Atlanta plays a steadier game, and out duels Jay Cutler's Bears.
Falcons 30 Bears 24

Denver at San Diego
After watching the Broncos come back to beat the Patriots last week, I feel like they are more than for real--they are one of the better teams in the league. So, I will not begin picking them to win, and likely be wrong more than right.
Broncos 17 Chargers 16

Week 5 Ranks

1. Indianapolis: The Colts are playing too well right now and scoring too many points not to be first. Although the Titans do not represent a formidable challenge, the Colts have had a slightly tougher set of opponents than the Giants so far.
2. New York Giants: The Giants just wrapped up three blowouts of three of the worst teams in the NFL. They'll have to dial it up a notch this week against New Orleans.
3. Minnesota: Like New York, the Vikings have played some pretty light teams. The Ravens will not be an easy match-up for the Vikings.
4. New Orleans: The Saints look good even when they have the week off. Darren Sharper loves playing against Eli Manning.
5. Denver: The Broncos defense is really good. Josh McDaniels might be crazier than Mike Singletary in the heat of the moment (who wouldn't be after 4th down penalties extended a Patriots drive twice). Kyle Orton really is not that bad, Bears fans.
6. Atlanta: I thought they had some things to prove. Well, completely dominating the 49ers on both sides of the ball proves a lot.
7. Philadelphia: The Eagles have yet to be put to much of a test, but they are taking care of business.
8. Cincinnati: It is hard not to like a team that plays solid defense, forces turnovers, runs the ball well (Hi, again, Bears fans), and has a solid, experienced quarterback.
9. New England: With a 17-7 lead at halftime, you would expect the Patriots to win. Instead, they went scoreless the rest of the game and lost in overtime. I hesitate to drop the Pats down too far as losing to what is clearly a very good team in a very good game.
10. Baltimore: Two hard losses to two good teams. Add a third against the Vikings this week, and people can start sounding the alarm, but the Ravens are still pretty solid all around, and will be a tough out in the playoffs.
11. Pittsburgh: The Steelers may be a team to watch out for. They seem to be 'getting by' so far, but we know they are capable of playing a lot better than this, and when Troy Polamalu returns, they could start winning easy again.
12. Miami: After their 0-3 start, which included the loss of Chad Pennington forever, I was already writing off the Dolphins. But the fact is that the 'Wildcat' is a truly dynamic and effective offense in the hands of Ronnie Brown, and the Dolphins defense is pretty good too. I think they can win the AFC East this season.
13. New York Jets: After their 3-0 start, I was ready to write off the Jets. I think Mark Sanchez will be a good quarterback, but there is a lot missing right now. And did you see the Dolphins move the ball on Monday night? Wow.
14. San Diego: Like the Steelers, the Chargers almost look like they are biding their time. If they do ever get hot, the Broncos may be looking at another race for the AFC West down the stretch.
15. San Francisco: On the one hand, I don't think we can read too much into their horrible loss to Atlanta (at home). They are still 3-2 in a so-so division, and they still have a very good defense. On the other hand, it isn't (and wasn't) reasonable to have high hopes for a team with a barely-get-you-by quarterback and no other real scoring threat.
16. Chicago: The Bears have two tough road games coming next (at Atlanta and at Cincinnati). If they make it out of that 4-2, that's a huge victory.
17. Dallas: Another team sitting at 3-2 after sneaking past some bad teams. The Cowboys can't survive in the NFC East...unless they get back to running the ball, and find a way to win close games against quality teams (the Chiefs DO NOT count, overtime or not).
18. Green Bay: The Packers have a very good chance to be 4-2--they face Detroit at home and travel to Cleveland--heading into the big Favor rematch at Lambeau field in Week 8. The Packers aren't good enough to look past the Browns and Lions, but they are certainly good enough to beat both easily.
19. Arizona: A huge win over Houston keeps them alive, and the rest of the NFC West isn't looking that hot.
20. Seattle: With Matt Hasselbeck in the line-up, the NFC West becomes a three-team race.
21. Houston: The Texans did their best to get back into a game that saw them fall 21 points behind in the first half, but Matt Schaub's 4th quarter interception sunk them.
22. Jacksonville: I guess that two-game winning streak didn't mean much. What a horrible loss to Seattle (41-0).
23. Carolina: Down 17-2, the Panthers came back to beat Washington. Atlanta and New Orleans will be very tough to catch.
24. Detroit: 24 looks high for a 1-4 team, but the Lions are playing better than those below. They really made Pittsburgh work, and I expect the same in Green Bay this week, where Calvin Johnson should be able to take advantage of the Packers new zone defense, if he is healthy.
25. Washington: Washington is strange: If I could, I would rank them last. Yes, these other seven teams are worse, but Washington just seems like a complete waste this year. Todd Collins should get a chance at quarterback, and I'm not joking.
26. Buffalo: If they can trade Terrell Owens for anything, they should. I wish putting the back-up quarterback in could spark this team, but Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't present an improvement over Trent Edwards in any area.
27. Tennessee: Like Washington, the Titans are sort of un-rankable. They are bad, that is for sure.
28. Kansas City: Like last year, the Chiefs are fighters if nothing else. They may lose every game this year, but the first half of each game is always interesting.
29. Oakland: Yes, they beat Kansas City. Whatever.
30. Cleveland: Yes, they beat Buffalo. Whatever.
31. Tampa Bay: Yes, they... No, they are just horrible.
32. St. Louis

The Vikings Passing Attack Comes Alive

With the Vikings offense playing as well as it has in years, I thought it would be interesting to compare how the passing game has fared through five games the last five seasons (or, essentially, the five years since Daunte Culpepper's last good season, 2004). With help from Pro-Football-Reference, I put together the following:

In 2005, Culpepper had an awful first five (which turned into seven) games before eventually blowing out his knee against Carolina in Week 8. After five games, Minnesota was 1-4, with losses of 37-8 to the Bengals, 30-10 to the Falcons, and 28-3 at the hands of the Bears (the week of the 'Love Boat' scandal). Culpepper was the main culprit in this dismal start. His 12 interceptions and three lost fumbles amounted to an average of three turnovers a game. But, since the Vikings were down and passing a lot, the receptions were high.

2005	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Culpepper	5	181	113	62.7	1256	4	12	62.8
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Wiggins	5	26	203	7.8	0
Taylor	5	20	252	12.6	2
Moore	5	14	125	8.9	0
Williamson	5	13	201	15.5	2
Robinson	5	12	200	16.7	0

Brad Johnson took over for Culpepper after his 2005 injury and almost led the Vikings to the playoffs. He won the job in 2006 without a challenge, and Johnson and rookie coach Brad Childress led the Vikings to a 3-2 record. Again, the Vikings couldn't manage to score touchdowns, and Johnson had more interceptions than scores. Travis Taylor and Troy Williamson led the team with a modest 18 catches each, but Jermaine Wiggins and Chester Taylor had 17 each, keeping the passing game on about the same pace as in 2005.

2006	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Johnson	5	170	107	62.9	1128	3	4	78.3
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
T. Taylor	5	18	243	13.5	1
Williamson	5	18	256	14.2	0
C. Taylor	5	17	118	609	0
Wiggins	5	17	143	8.4	0
Moore	5	13	90	6.9	0

The 2006 season ended miserably, with rookie Tarvaris Jackson having to playing all four December games (starting two). Jackson was the Vikings starter on opening day in 2007, but only made it two games before being knocked out with an injury. Kelly Holcomb started in games against the Chiefs and Packers, both losses, before Jackson returned in Week 6 and 'led' the team to a 34-31 victory over the Bears at Soldier Field (actually, Adrian Peterson had touchdown runs of 67, 73, and 35 yards; Jackson was 9 of 23 for 136 yards and one touchdown).

The 2-3 Vikings had completed only 77 passes (Brooks Bollinger was 3 out of 4), and Bobby Wade was the only player with more than 11 catches. Again, the Vikings had thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes (3 to 6).

2007	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Jackson	3	79	39	49.4	465	2	5	49.8
Holcomb	2	67	35	52.2	427	1	1	70.9
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Wade	5	18	203	11.3	0
Rice	5	11	119	10.8	1
Peterson	5	10	175	17.5	1
Shiancoe	5	9	107	11.9	0
Williamson	4	8	134	16.8	1

Again in 2008 the Vikings made a quarterback change within the first month of the season. This time, it was not due to injury, but instead, Jackson's dismal play in the Vikings Week 1 and 2 losses. Gus Frerotte started in Week 3, holding the team team steady through a 20-10 victory over Carolina. After three Frerotte starts, Minnesota was 2-3 (with a third win on the way against Detriot), and, for the first time since Daunte Culpepper's historic 2004 season, they hadn't thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes: Jackson and Frerotte had combined for three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Meanwhile, Bobby Wade and Bernard Berrian were off to quick starts, despite missing one game each, and Visanthe Shiancoe, with two touchdown catches, looked like he was overcoming a 2007 season full of drops.

2008	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Frerotte	3	107	60	56.1	316	2	2	74.2
Jackson	3	60	31	51.7	692	1	1	65.7
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Wade	4	21	216	10.3	0
Berrian	4	17	305	17.9	1
Shiancoe	5	12	145	12.1	2
Peterson	5	10	61	6.1	0
Taylor	5	9	55	6.1	0

Of course, the below 2009 stats should speak for themselves, especially the touchdowns. The receptions column actually is roughly the same, but the way Favre is spreading the ball around is impressive, and has been a huge factor in the Vikings 5-0 start. Though difficult to quantify, the effect of keeping Adrian Peterson out of the top five receivers on the team should be noted. If the Vikings can continue to have this much success throwing the ball without having to increase Peterson's touches, that should bode well for the rest of the season. (I am among those who thinks Taylor should be getting more carries, but it is hard to argue against giving the ball to the best player in the NFL.)

Favre's passer rating is 26 points higher than the second best five-game mark in the last five years (Johnson in 2006), and his two interceptions are the lowest for the Vikings during the last five years. And hey, just for good measure, Tarvaris Jackson is 4 for 5 for 82 yards, maybe the best five-pass stretch of his career.

2009	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Favre	5	149	103	69.1	1069	9	2	104.1
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Taylor	5	21	187	8.9	0
Berrian	4	19	216	11.4	1
Harvin	5	18	233	12.9	2
Rice	5	17	233	13.7	2
Shiancoe	5	13	116	8.9	3

Lastly, I thought it would be interesting to see how Brent has done in his first five games each of the last five seasons. Favre has attempted far fewer passes in his last two seasons through five games than he did in the previous three seasons as a Packer. Notice that as a Jet and Viking, Favre's passer rating is over 100 through five games, which he didn't do from 2005-07 with Green Bay.

	G	W-L	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
2005	5	1-4	186	120	64.5	1256	12	8	87.6
2006	5	1-4	203	115	56.7	1275	7	5	76.7
2007	5	4-1	210	141	67.1	1527	9	4	94.7
2008	5	3-2	157	112	71.3	1124	13	6	103
2009	5	5-0	149	103	69.1	1069	9	2	104.1