Birds!

Confronted by the most compelling conference championship in the history of the NFL (Eagles at Cardinals), I turned and ran to something much more light-hearted, though possibly as interesting. Bird mascots are taking over the league. Cardinals, Eagles, and Ravens, all in the conference finals in one season? Who would have thought?

Last year the same weekend was full of... big men. Patriots, Giants,  and Packers. Neato. The Eagles last conference championship was another one fought in mid-air, against the Falcons. Probably the most incredible thing about the three-bird weekend is that the Cardinals are one of the birds. The Eagles have gotten this far quite a lot since Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb took over the team (this is their fourth NFC Championship game together), but the Cardinals hadn't won a playoff game since 1998 before they beat Atlanta at home two weeks ago. The Ravens, of course, are among the recently crowned, having won the 2000 Super Bowl. 

The Philadelphia-Arizona game seems like a bit of a rip-off; what happened to New York and Carolina, the two running-est and best-loved NFC teams all season? Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh-Baltimore rematch seems almost too good to be true. Here's what needs to be known: The NFC game will be more exciting than the AFC game. Exciting is almost impossible to define in professional sports; some people want a bunch of touchdowns, some want a bunch of defense, and some quit watching after their fantasy football team lost in the playoffs. In this case, it will be a matter of the NFC game staying close, and the Steelers running away from Baltimore.

Baltimore has played well the last month, and won some very big games. They almost beat Pittsburgh last time around, in a heated, controversial game. But the fact of the matter is that the Steelers are the better team, and are much better prepared for this game. They have no glaring weaknesses, and are playing at home. They have a quarterback with a ring. Look, I know I've lauded Baltimore for most of the year, including last week after they beat Tennessee. And I think they will play fine. And they will hit and run the ball and all of that. And they will lose.

The Eagles are match-up problem for most teams because of their aggressive defense. They force teams to change things up and take chances. The Cardinals are a tough match-up because their passing game can beat anybody. Basically, this game will boil down to two things: Kurt Warner staying on his feet, and the Cardinals defense continuing to tackle well and play at a high intensity.

Last week the Arizona defense was as nasty as they are capable of. They were hitting and wrapping up and catching the ball when Jake Delhomme threw it near them. They'll have to do the same. Brian Westbrook hasn't done much in this year's playoffs, and the Cardinals would be wise to keep attention on him. McNabb is playing well. He'll hurt the Cardinals a few times, but they should be able to minimize the big plays. Warner, on the other hand, just needs to find the hot receiver on blitzes (something he has always been known for), and give Larry Fitzgerald a couple chances to make plays. If Warner can do that, the Cardinals can score 30 points.

With that:

Pittsburgh 34-17. Might be a close first half, but eventually Pittsburgh will make the big plays.

Philadelphia 30-27. I can't make myself actually pick the Cardinals, for the third straight week.

Wild Card Weekend

The 2009 NFL Playoffs are here, and at this point it could be anybody's Super Bowl. The Giants, Titans, and Steelers seem to be the favorites, but there are plenty of worthy participants in this year's field of 12. 

Atlanta at Arizona

At first glance this game seems like an easy one to pick. Atlanta has been one of the more consistent teams in the league this year, and their offense has been close to unstoppable. Arizona, conversely, struggled mightily in the second half of the season, and managed only three wins outside of their division. They are the most one-dimensional team in the league, and their high-powered passing attack will have to face John Abraham this week.

I'll admit, I'm not ready to predict that the Cardinals will win this game. But this could be a very close. Atlanta's defense is really bad. Yes, they can get after the quarterback sometimes, but they give up a lot of yards, and sometimes have had to rely on teams coughing up the ball to end drives. Kurt Warner has played plenty of playoffs games, and Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are ready to go. I think the Cardinals need to continue to give the ball to Edgerrin James, who has come back to life a little the last couple weeks.

Still, Atlanta can control the ball in this game, and assuming Matt Ryan doesn't fall apart, a turnover-free game should be enough for Atlanta to take this one. Falcons 34-28.

Indianapolis at San Diego

The Colts are the best team without a bye in these playoffs. But, they'll be playing on the road probably all the way through. I think this game has the biggest chance of being a blow-out. I see the Colts taking their time moving up and down the field, and their defense bending-but-not-breaking. It is hard not to go with Peyton Manning. Colts 27-13.

Baltimore at Miami

I love watching the Ravens play, and this should be a good match-up for their style of play. If there is one team that won't get flustered by the wild cat offense, it is the Ravens. That said, Miami is another team that has been pretty consistent all year, and always comes ready to play. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are not going to find much room against the Ravens defense, and Chad Pennington's floaty-but-accurate passes better be even sharper.

Baltimore struggled earlier this year against good teams because they weren't finishing games. They seem to have learned how to do that now. Ask Dallas. I see their running backs pounding the Dolphins defense. Ravens 20-13.

Philadelphia at Minnesota

The Vikings are one of the few teams in the NFL anymore that seems to have a legitimate home-field advantage. When the fans show up, the Metrodome is loud. The key to this game will be whether one or the other jumps out to a big lead. The Vikings haven't really fallen that far behind at all this year, but they play tight when behind. The Eagles have simply been awful when they are losing. 

If Tarvaris Jackson can stay on his feet and find his check-downs, the Vikings might really surprise people on Sunday. The weirdest thing about this game is that the Eagles have become the "dark horse" of this year's playoffs. Every year one team gets a bunch of attention at the last minute, and everybody starts picking them. I'm not sure the Eagles deserve it. If their run-defense has a huge day, they will win. Otherwise, this is a toss-up. Vikings 24-21.

Hypothetical Playoff Predictions that will change with the outcome of this weekend's games

If all of my above picks are right (no chance), here is how I see the rest of the playoffs going:

AFC

The Ravens victory would force them to travel to Tennessee, and the Colts would take on Pittsburgh. I think that would set up a Steelers-Titans rematch in the AFC Championship, and the Steelers would win.

NFC

The six-seed Eagles would completely change the NFC if they got into the second round, but I don't think they will. So, I see Atlanta losing to New York, and Minnesota losing to Carolina. Then the Panthers would go to New York and win that rematch.

I guess at this point predicting the Steelers to beat the Panthers in the Super Bowl seems as safe as possible. That will change in about 48 hours.

So wrong, So much of the time

Once again, I have proved that I cannot pick NFL games. Here are some of the worst misses:

I thought that when the Jets went to New England last Thursday the game would be a little bit more on the defensive side. Instead, the Patriots gained over 500 yards, and the Jets used a balanced attack to put up 34 points. The Patriots actually played a pretty solid game overall, but the Jets came up with big plays, and New England did not. In the first half the Jets looked like they might run away with the game, especially after a Leon Washington 92-yard kickoff return. But, as one might expect, Bill Belichick made the proper adjustments at half time, and the Pats stormed back into the game.

The Jets defense had the epitome of a bend-but-don't-break performance. They somehow managed to give up 400 yards passing to Matt Cassel. Cassel looked as good as he has all year, turning from a one-read quarterback into one who was checking down and finding single coverage when he had to. But the Jets came up with a few stops in this game, even if they were on their own side of the field. They won this game because of two long drives, one in the 4th quarter, and the second on the opening possession of overtime. This was a really great game, and was a rare one that leads the viewer to believe that both teams are legit, even if one lost.

Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos actually managed to play some defense in Atlanta, and came up with a huge win. My mantra with the Broncos all season has said that Jay Cutler will put up big numbers, but their defense will let them down. For now, they look to have the AFC West and a first-round home game wrapped up, with San Diego (4-6) losing to Pittsburgh. Sunday's 24-20 win over the Falcons might spark a run for the Broncos.

In the case of the Philadelphia Eagles, I think it is time to write them off. They have been wildly inconsistent from week to week. Sometimes, they have looked very good, even in losses. Other times, Donovan McNabb can't hold on to the ball, and they look pretty bad. Yes, Cincinnati has played tough in a lot of their losses, but the Eagles were supposed to be a contender, and they are lucky to have tied the Bengals. McNabb has to take care of the ball. The defense played solid, but somewhere along the line you have to put up some points. Ugliest game of the year? 13-13 might tell the entire story.