The Vikings Passing Attack Comes Alive

With the Vikings offense playing as well as it has in years, I thought it would be interesting to compare how the passing game has fared through five games the last five seasons (or, essentially, the five years since Daunte Culpepper's last good season, 2004). With help from Pro-Football-Reference, I put together the following:

In 2005, Culpepper had an awful first five (which turned into seven) games before eventually blowing out his knee against Carolina in Week 8. After five games, Minnesota was 1-4, with losses of 37-8 to the Bengals, 30-10 to the Falcons, and 28-3 at the hands of the Bears (the week of the 'Love Boat' scandal). Culpepper was the main culprit in this dismal start. His 12 interceptions and three lost fumbles amounted to an average of three turnovers a game. But, since the Vikings were down and passing a lot, the receptions were high.

2005	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Culpepper	5	181	113	62.7	1256	4	12	62.8
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Wiggins	5	26	203	7.8	0
Taylor	5	20	252	12.6	2
Moore	5	14	125	8.9	0
Williamson	5	13	201	15.5	2
Robinson	5	12	200	16.7	0

Brad Johnson took over for Culpepper after his 2005 injury and almost led the Vikings to the playoffs. He won the job in 2006 without a challenge, and Johnson and rookie coach Brad Childress led the Vikings to a 3-2 record. Again, the Vikings couldn't manage to score touchdowns, and Johnson had more interceptions than scores. Travis Taylor and Troy Williamson led the team with a modest 18 catches each, but Jermaine Wiggins and Chester Taylor had 17 each, keeping the passing game on about the same pace as in 2005.

2006	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Johnson	5	170	107	62.9	1128	3	4	78.3
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
T. Taylor	5	18	243	13.5	1
Williamson	5	18	256	14.2	0
C. Taylor	5	17	118	609	0
Wiggins	5	17	143	8.4	0
Moore	5	13	90	6.9	0

The 2006 season ended miserably, with rookie Tarvaris Jackson having to playing all four December games (starting two). Jackson was the Vikings starter on opening day in 2007, but only made it two games before being knocked out with an injury. Kelly Holcomb started in games against the Chiefs and Packers, both losses, before Jackson returned in Week 6 and 'led' the team to a 34-31 victory over the Bears at Soldier Field (actually, Adrian Peterson had touchdown runs of 67, 73, and 35 yards; Jackson was 9 of 23 for 136 yards and one touchdown).

The 2-3 Vikings had completed only 77 passes (Brooks Bollinger was 3 out of 4), and Bobby Wade was the only player with more than 11 catches. Again, the Vikings had thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes (3 to 6).

2007	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Jackson	3	79	39	49.4	465	2	5	49.8
Holcomb	2	67	35	52.2	427	1	1	70.9
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Wade	5	18	203	11.3	0
Rice	5	11	119	10.8	1
Peterson	5	10	175	17.5	1
Shiancoe	5	9	107	11.9	0
Williamson	4	8	134	16.8	1

Again in 2008 the Vikings made a quarterback change within the first month of the season. This time, it was not due to injury, but instead, Jackson's dismal play in the Vikings Week 1 and 2 losses. Gus Frerotte started in Week 3, holding the team team steady through a 20-10 victory over Carolina. After three Frerotte starts, Minnesota was 2-3 (with a third win on the way against Detriot), and, for the first time since Daunte Culpepper's historic 2004 season, they hadn't thrown more interceptions than touchdown passes: Jackson and Frerotte had combined for three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Meanwhile, Bobby Wade and Bernard Berrian were off to quick starts, despite missing one game each, and Visanthe Shiancoe, with two touchdown catches, looked like he was overcoming a 2007 season full of drops.

2008	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Frerotte	3	107	60	56.1	316	2	2	74.2
Jackson	3	60	31	51.7	692	1	1	65.7
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Wade	4	21	216	10.3	0
Berrian	4	17	305	17.9	1
Shiancoe	5	12	145	12.1	2
Peterson	5	10	61	6.1	0
Taylor	5	9	55	6.1	0

Of course, the below 2009 stats should speak for themselves, especially the touchdowns. The receptions column actually is roughly the same, but the way Favre is spreading the ball around is impressive, and has been a huge factor in the Vikings 5-0 start. Though difficult to quantify, the effect of keeping Adrian Peterson out of the top five receivers on the team should be noted. If the Vikings can continue to have this much success throwing the ball without having to increase Peterson's touches, that should bode well for the rest of the season. (I am among those who thinks Taylor should be getting more carries, but it is hard to argue against giving the ball to the best player in the NFL.)

Favre's passer rating is 26 points higher than the second best five-game mark in the last five years (Johnson in 2006), and his two interceptions are the lowest for the Vikings during the last five years. And hey, just for good measure, Tarvaris Jackson is 4 for 5 for 82 yards, maybe the best five-pass stretch of his career.

2009	G	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
Favre	5	149	103	69.1	1069	9	2	104.1
	G	REC	YARDS	AVG	TD
Taylor	5	21	187	8.9	0
Berrian	4	19	216	11.4	1
Harvin	5	18	233	12.9	2
Rice	5	17	233	13.7	2
Shiancoe	5	13	116	8.9	3

Lastly, I thought it would be interesting to see how Brent has done in his first five games each of the last five seasons. Favre has attempted far fewer passes in his last two seasons through five games than he did in the previous three seasons as a Packer. Notice that as a Jet and Viking, Favre's passer rating is over 100 through five games, which he didn't do from 2005-07 with Green Bay.

	G	W-L	ATT	COMP	%	YARDS	TD	INT	RATING
2005	5	1-4	186	120	64.5	1256	12	8	87.6
2006	5	1-4	203	115	56.7	1275	7	5	76.7
2007	5	4-1	210	141	67.1	1527	9	4	94.7
2008	5	3-2	157	112	71.3	1124	13	6	103
2009	5	5-0	149	103	69.1	1069	9	2	104.1

I freak out after reading the Strib

Dear Patrick Reusse, Star Tribune Floating Head:

Do you believe the things you write? Do you ever go through your columns and laugh at yourself?

Your logic is simply not on point. Listen, if Tarvaris Jackson is not a viable option at quarterback because we lost to the Eagles, he wasn't a viable option the week before or the week before that. If you watch every play, and you know anything about football (and I know enough about journalism to know that you have this job because you worked your ass off as a reporter and writer for years, NOT because you are an expert on football), you would understand a few things: Tarvaris Jackson gave the Vikings a better chance to win that game than Gus Frerotte. Check your buddy Kevin Seifert out. He threw out some interesting stats about the two quarterbacks' success against the blitz. Frerotte was a lot worse than Jackson. Also, there is not a single quarterback in the NFL who "beats" effective blitz or effective pressure. For reference, go watch Tom Brady in last year's Super Bowl, or for something more local, Peyton Manning in the first half against the Vikings this year. Actually, that is a great example. You know why Manning picked us apart in the second half? We stopped getting to him. Simple. There were Eagles running free on most passing plays, and Philadelphia didn't even blitz as much as expected. No, I repeat, NO, quarterback would have succeed against the pressure.

That said, Jackson was inaccurate all day. You know his only problem? He is too willing to try to throw passes when he is being hit. Almost every bad play he has ever made has come when he isn't able to step into a throw.

"You can only do what the quarterback can handle, and once he was blitzed, sacked and fumbled to end the opening possession of the second half, Jackson couldn't handle the basics."

You can also only do what the coaches give you a chance to do. Brad Childress, in Weeks 1 and 2 and in the second half against Philadelphia, clammed up. His play calling gave away the fact that he had no confidence in Jackson. Don't blame Jackson for Childress not giving him a chance to fail or succeed. Next time you talk to ol' Brad, ask him what happened to the seam routes to Shiancoe and the deep ins to Wade. If you can only do what the quarterback can handle, and he is struggling, why do you keep calling the same plays?

The only smart thing Childress did? Accept that holding penalty. Remember when the Giants converted a 3rd and 21 in Vikings territory? Or when David Akers made a 51-yarder about 15 minutes after that first field goal? Oops. Go watch any football game on any Sunday. On 3rd and 15 or more, teams gain yards. Almost always. The likelihood of that ending up being a 53-yard isn't even worth talking about. And the argument that maybe the defense would have come up with a huge play? They could come up with a huge play every single down, in theory. Why not just leave them on the field for 60 minutes?

And the last line, about Detroit? What a crock of shit. Seriously? How could you possibly manage that? How did you even come up with that comparison? If you aren't OK with 10-6 and the playoffs, go buy a fucking Yankees hat.

Yours always,

Brad Tucker

Vikings lose, lose, lose

As usual, my predictions were awful. I got one game right, and was pretty wrong pretty much across the board on the other games, on every point.

There are about 600 things I could say about the Vikings-Eagles game. It was disappointing in many, many ways, because of the bad and good things Minnesota did. Unfortunately, everybodys' projections for this game were correct: the Eagles blitzing stymied Tarvaris Jackson, and the Vikings couldn't sustain drives. What I want to talk about it is why what everybody is saying after the game is wrong.

There have been basically two complaints against the Vikings in the hours since they lost a home wild card game: Jackson was a mess, and Childress should have accepted a holding penalty in the first quarter and made the Eagles go for a longer field goal.

I'll start with the field goal. The score was 0-0, and DeSean Jackson had just returned a punt 62 yards into Minnesota territory. The Vikings forced a three-and-out, but there was a holding penalty on Philadelphia on the 3rd down play, an incomplete pass. Rather than give the Eagles a shot at a 3rd and 19, Childress declined the penalty, making it 4th and 9 from the Vikings 26. David Akers nailed a 43-yard field goal and the Eagles took a 3-0 lead.

The criticism is basically that the Vikings should have had more confidence in their defense, and tried to force the Eagles to attempt the kick from further out. This is problematic to me for a few reasons. First, 3rd and 19 is not impossible to get. The Giants converted a 3rd and 21 last week in Vikings territory. Second, a 43-yard field goal is pretty makable for almost all kickers, but Akers is pretty capable of a 53-yarder in a dome, and actually made one from 51 yards later in the game. The major problem is that it is an unnecessary risk. Imagine if the Eagles convert that 3rd and 19? By forcing them to go three-and-out, the Vikings had squashed some momentum. the Eagles had moved the ball well on their first possession, and the Jackson punt return had given them some more juice. Being down 3-0 in the first quarter of a home playoff game is not such a horrible position. On the off-chance that the Eagles convert, suddenly you could be down 7-0 with no momentum. It would be a game-changing moment, one that Childress could not risk at that point in the game. And I think his decision was further justified, not only by Akers' 51-yarder, but also by the the fact that the defense continued to force the Eagles into long 3rd downs and held them to field goals until the Brian Westbrook touchdown.

On to Tarvaris Jackson. My opening disclaimer: I am not going to defend Jackson too much; he was inaccurate, and was very uncomfortable for most of the day. He made some poor decisions, and was unable to get untracked and figure out how to get the ball upfield. That said, his poor play was emblematic of an offense-wide collapse. Everybody knew the Eagles were going to go after Jackson, jut like they go after every quarterback. The Vikings had absolutely no answer for the blitzing. That is why I think the coaching staff is as much to blame for Jackson's poor game as Jackson himself.

Here is one football absolute: The best way to beat any quarterback is to pressure him. Almost no quarterback is successful when he is being rushed and hit often. We saw the Giants shut down the Patriots by getting to Tom Brady early and often in last year's super bowl. We've seen it happen to Peyton Manning, Brett Favre; the list goes on forever. The Eagles were getting Jackson on almost every pass play, and most of the time it was guys coming untouched. No quarterback can be successful in that situation. To make things worse, the Vikings tend to throw from one or two wide receiver formations. There were no open receivers even when the Eagles sent six or seven defenders. How is that possible? Wasn't Childress supposed to be familiar with Jim Johnson?

Jackson showed what I think is his worst attribute: He will try to throw passes even when he is getting hit. almost all of his worst plays in his career have come when he isn't able to step into a throw. The interception taken back for a touchdown by Asante Samuel, which pretty much was the difference in the game, was a perfect example. The play was kind of doomed from the start. Samuel read it immediately, and Rice can sort of a sloppy route; he was somewhere between an out and a comeback. Jackson threw the ball when he shouldn't have, and got hit, all of that adding up to a pass that went directly to Samuel.

Jackson still showed some flashes in this game, despite generally struggling. He can make some crazy throws, and is a very good runner. It is hard to believe that he is not having more success in the league, though we have seen physical potential fail before in this league. the worst thing that happened for Jackson in this game was the second-half play calling. There is no doubt that Childress and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell clammed up in the second half. One of the main reasons I supported Jackson's benching at the start of the year was because it was clear that the Vikings were not calling the game aggressively, and it was clear that the reason for that was Jackson. When he returned to the lineup, the playbook stayed as open as it was with Gus Frerotte. Jackson's best plays were coming on intermediate routes in the middle of the field. We didn't see any of those against Philadelphia. 

I think it is easy to blame the quarterback most of the time, and maybe even right. This time, I think it was an offense-wide problem. There were some positives in the game. Adrian PEterson and Chester Taylor were as effective as they could be, considering the team was down for most of the day, and the Eagles defense played pretty good. Jim Kleinsasser is still the best blocking tight end in the league, and had two nice catches. On defense, Jared Allen was stellar and fill-ins Brian Robison and Ellis Wyms were very good. Jimmy Kennedy might have even earned a chance at the final roster for next season. Cedric Griffin played one of his better games. A disappointing loss, but not a shocker.

The Ravens did exactly what I thought they would to the Dolphins: They physically beat them up, and they took advantage of the huge air-time on all of Chad Pennington's passes. I know he is very accurate and a very steady presence at quarterback, but nobody can get away with those throws against the Ravens defense. Willis McGahee can be frighteningly good at times.

I didn't know the Chargers were capable of the game they played Saturday. They pretty much won in every facet of the game. Take away a couple bad red zone turnovers and that game wouldn't have been close. The Colts sort of did what I expected, holding the ball, converting third downs, but they wore down in the second half. 

I hinted in my last post that maybe the Cardinals should be getting more respect heading into the playoffs. It was a good match up for them, hosting the Falcons, and they took advantage. Matt Ryan played OK, but was not ready for a playoff game. Kurt Warner took advantage of a porous Falcons defense all day. I still like Andre Johnson as the league's best wide receiver, but Larry Fitzgerald is a close second. The ball never touches any part of his body but his hands.

NFC North Champions

Vikings 17 Falcons 24

I sometimes wonder if there is another team in the NFL that is as frustrating as the Vikings. For at least two years the Vikings have played games where they appeared to completely outplay their opponent, yet lost because of literally one or two plays.

Yesterday against the Falcons, the Vikings backed up that reputation to the extreme. They coughed up four fumbles and lost despite mostly containing Michael Turner, dominating the Falcons offense in the second half, and having some really nice performances on offense. It is the kind of game that one can't really take anything from; Minnesota looked so good in so many parts of the game, but those four fumbles pretty much wreck the entire week for them.

The Falcons looked good on their opening drive. They came out in a no-huddle offense and marched down the field pretty easily, helped by a couple Vikings penalties. They went up 7-0. Chester Taylor then fumbled the ensuing kick-off, and brought it out only to the 10-yard line. But, miraculously, Tarvaris Jackson looked very sharp in leading a 90-yard drive that ended with a Visanthe Shiancoe touchdown. The Vikings defense settled down and forced a three-and-out. Then the game got stupid.

Bernard Berrian decided not to call for a fair catch with a man in his face, and bobbled the ball. Atlanta recovered and took advantage of the short field to take a 14-7 lead. Minnesota responded with another long drive. Then Adrian Peterson lost the ball at the 17 and gave Atlanta possession. Later in the half, the Vikings were at midfield and Peterson tried to close his arms around a handoff that wasn't there yet, and Atlanta again recovered a fumble. Lucky for the Vikings, Atlanta was content to let the clock expire and settle for a field goal, leaving the score at 17-7 at half. 

The second went almost exactly the same. The Vikings opening drive again looked sharp, until Jackson was sacked and the ball somehow flew backward 20 yards. Atlanta went three-and out.

The Vikings got one first down, but then Matt Birk snapped the ball too early, and Tarvaris Jackson didn't see it. He chased it down and the Vikings were forced to punt. Atlanta took over at their own 49, and used the short field to score another touchdown. This score was perhaps the last straw in the game; Ryan fumbled the ball at the goal line, and two Vikings failed to pick it up before guard Justin Blalock fell on it for the Falcons. 24-7 Atlanta.

From that point on, Atlanta did not earn a first down, while the Vikings tacked on about 150 more yards of offense, but could muster only 10 points. The no-call on a deep pass to Sydney Rice, a play that was surely pass interference, is hard to complain about after the Vikings had already given the game away.

And now both John Clayton and Michael Silver are calling for Gus Frerotte. One of my biggest pet peeves is national sports writers talking about games they didn't watch. These two clearly looked at the stats, saw that Jackson was credited for two fumbles (even though one was obviously Peterson's fault), and now are saying Frerotte will give them a better chance to win. forget the stats (they were pretty good for Jackson). Here is the difference between Jackson and Frerotte right now: Yes, Jackson turned the ball over, but it was kind of flukey play, more of a physical mistake than a mental one. go back and watch Frerotte this entire season. He makes terrible, indefensible mistakes every single game. He throws balls into spots that he shouldn't even be looking. When Jackson plays bad, he tends to get sacked a lot and throw a lot of incompletions. But he isn't playing bad right now. He is throw great balls, and running effectively. And one thing is sure: Jackson can make a lot of throws that Frerotte cannot. Fact.

Adrian Peterson needs to either be benched or fined. You cannot be an NFL running back and fumble this much. He is costing the team victories. He is much more at fault in this game than Jackson. Every running back from Pop Warner and up is taught to keep his arms open until the ball is put into his stomach. Peterson couldn't even do that Sunday. He needs to start running like he knows there is a football in his hands. Unacceptable.

Vikings 20, Lions 16

Sunday's victory over the Detroit Lions was pretty typical for the Vikings. They played about one good half of football total, committed some really confusing and infuriating penalties, turned the ball over, and still put together two huge fourth-quarter drives to win the game.

After 30 minutes, it didn't really look like the Vikings were ready to play football. They came out as flat as an NFL team possibly can, and that is saying a lot for a team that generally struggles in the first quarter. Almost every Lions-Vikings game seems to go the same. The Lions play as well as they are capable of, which isn't all that good, and Minnesota does what they can to keep it close, usually by turning the balling over and giving up big plays. That was today in a nutshell.

Stepping back a little, one will notice that the Lions managed just 267 yards of offense and were 3-11 on 3rd downs (one of those came on a Vikings penalty). The Vikings contributed three first downs to the Lions on penalties today. The Lions were also o-2 on 4th downs, both times electing not to kick short field goals with one of the the best kickers in the league.

But the Vikings ran the ball very well, and Tarvaris Jackson looked pretty good filling in for Gus Frerotte, who is slowly falling apart with each week. Jackson was 8 of 10 for 105 yards in the second half, including an 11-yard touchdown pass to Visanthe Shiancoe to put the Vikings up 17-13. Jackson did make one incredibly bad decision, tossing a ball that fluttered in the air after he was hit on a throw into quadruple-coverage. Somehow the ball fell incomplete, though a few Lions had a chance to catch it. But, Jackson did show why is he capable of being an NFL quarterback: He has a huge arm, and when he is accurate, can make any throw (that is, he can put the ball in any spot). He hit Sidney Rice for 15 yards on the sideline to convert a 3rd and three, and on the Vikings final drive he found Bobby Wade for 15 yards on 3rd and four.

Chester Taylor made the most of his short time in the game. He ran 17 yards for a 3rd quarter touchdown, and caught a screen pass and scrambled for 15 yards in the final few minutes. The team has to be at least a little concerned about Adrian Peterson's three fumbles. Another time a fumble was ruled on the field, though the call was over-turned, as Peterson was clearly down when the ball came out. Still, the Vikings had to use a challenge because of it. This was the first time coach Brad Childress stuck with Peterson following fumbles. Down the stretch Peterson stayed in the game, though Childress has been known to use Taylor more in games were Peterson has fumbled. 

Now the Vikings are one game closer to their first NFC North title. The Packers are basically done now, though they can play spoilers by beating Chicago. The Vikings could probably win just one more game and still win the division, assuming Chicago stumbles once or twice more. The Green Bay-Chicago game will be key. If Chicago loses that game, they will fall to 3-3 in the NFC North, and the Vikings would then hold a tie breaker. Jared Allen's health will be important after the cheap shot he took to his left knee. 

Imagine if Minnesota had held on against Indianapolis, and not fumbled the game away in Tampa Bay. They would be sitting even prettier  right now, though I think any Vikings fan will take where they are now.