Week 11 Picks Revisited

Seven green winners, 11 right overall out of 16 games played.

Prediction: Panthers 24 Dolphins 17

Actual: Dolphins 24 Panthers 17
When Ronnie Brown went down, it seemed obvious to some of us that the Dolphins were finished. But, as they showed on Thursday, their defense is solid, and they can run the ball. Ever heard of Ricky Williams?

Prediction: Cowboys 20 Washington 18
Actual: Cowboys 7 Washington 6
I didn't see much of this game, but I can imagine it was beyond ugly. The Cowboys didn't score until late in the 4th quarter, and Shaun Suisham missed two field goals that would have made the difference for Washington.

Prediction: Lions 24 Browns 12
Actual: Lions 38 Browns 37
This was the wildest game of the week, if not technically the 'best.' The Browns bucked all the predictions I made: Their offense dominated the terrible Detriot secondary, and their defense completely laid down against Matthew Stafford.

Prediction: Packers 17 49ers 13
Actual: Packers 30 49ers 24
Green Bay won the game, but might have lost a much larger battle. Aaron Kampman and Al Harris each suffered season (maybe career in the case of Harris) injuries. I agree with those who say that the impact of these injuries is somewhat lessened by the fact that neither was turning out to be a good fit in Dom Capers 3-4 scheme, but losing two veteran standouts can't be underestimated, especially with a defense that has been spotty at times.

Prediction: Steelers 24 Chiefs 14
Actual: Chiefs 27 Steelers 24 OT
"I don't think Kansas City will let them run away with it though"- That was how I summed up my prediction for this game. Well, they sure didn't. When they did get pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, it was big-time pressure. Matt Cassell played a solid game, and in the end, the Steelers defense couldn't make plays when they had to.

Prediction: Giants 29 Falcons 27
Actual: Giants 34 Falcons 31 OT
Maybe my most accurate pick this week.

Prediction: Saints 34 Buccaneers 26
Actual: Saints 38 Buccaneers 7
OK, the Saints did get a breather.

Prediction: Bills 16 Jaguars 13
Actual: Jaguars 18 Bills 15
The spirit of my pick was very correct, but I got the teams wrong. The Bills probably should have won this game, but the mistakes they made in the second half proved critical.

Prediction: Colts 34 Ravens 33
Actual: Colts 17 Ravens 15
It turned out that Ravens did summon that old defensive swagger...too bad they could only score field goals. It's getting to the point for Baltimore where being competitive is no longer cutting it.

Prediction: Vikings 28 Seahawks 17
Actual: Vikings 35 Seahawks 9
Minnesota's defense turned in their best game of the season so far.

Prediction: Cardinals 27 Rams 14
Actual: Cardinals 21 Rams 13
Even without Kurt Warner for a long stretch of the game, the Cardinals were able to hold off the lowly-Rams.

Prediction: Patriots 30 Jets 10
Actual: Patriots 31 Jets 14
This is the other candidate for best pick for Week 11. Not a lot to say about this game; kind of hard to believe that the Jets were once 3-0, with a head-to-head victory over New England in hand.

Prediction: Bengals 20 Raiders 7
Actual: Raiders 20 Bengals 17
It's mostly a fluke the way the game ended, but as we always say, if the Raiders hadn't been in a situation where it was possible to kick the game-winning field goal with 17 seconds left, it wouldn't have mattered if the Bengals dropped a fluky-fumble

Prediction: Chargers 27 Broncos 17

Actual: Chargers 32 Broncos 3
Chris Simms didn't really get a chance. He was yanked to make way for the hobbled Kyle Orton, who sparked the offense for all of 47 seconds. Yikes.

Prediction: Eagles 34 Bears 24
Actual: Eagles 24 Bears 20
Jay Cutler only threw one interception...and it was on the final Bears possession, when they had a chance to drive for a game-winning touchdown. Plus, he over threw three wide open receivers that had nothing between themselves and the end zone. Yuck.

Prediction: Texans 30 Titans 20

Actual: Titans 20 Texans 17
To answer the question about Vince Young being able to play well in four straight games...he played good enough. No turnovers, and the Titans won. Kris Brown and Shaun Suisham should get together this week, and talk missed field goals.

Week 11 Picks

I've been obsessed with Tecmo Super Bowl and the NFL seasons 1988-1992, so I decided to ponder what each of this week's matchups would have been like if the game had been played in the 1990 season.

Miami at Carolina
This is actually a pretty big game—after each team started 0-3, that probably didn't look likely, but now we have a matchup of two of the better running teams in the league. Carolina actually is playing like a team that could make the playoffs. Panthers 24 Dolphins 17

If they played in 1990: The Panthers didn't exist, so I guess Dan Marino would have a bye week.

Washington at Dallas
Washington came up with a big win for the downtrodden team last week, taking advantage of the Chris Simms-led Broncos. Dallas laid a huge egg in Green Bay. Maybe Washington can make things hard on the Cowboys? I'm scared to actually pick them to win though. Cowboys 20 Washington 18

When they played in 1990: The up-and-coming Cowboys actually split the season series with Washington on their way to a 7-9 record, even though Troy Aikman threw four interceptions in the two games.

Cleveland at Detroit
Epic matchup of one-win teams. Cleveland's defense had a nice game against Baltimore on Monday night. Detriot looked like an awful mess against Minnesota. But, the Browns can't score points, so it will be hard to win any games. Lions 24 Browns 12

If they played in 1990: This actually would have been a similarly ugly matchup 19 years ago. After nine games in 1990, these teams had combined for only five wins. Luckily these two teams didn't play that season. The Browns roster actually still had a lot of the guys that had taken them to a bunch of AFC Championships in the 1980s(including the previous season), but they were not producing similar results. They already had 21 turnovers through nine games, and that number sky rocketed in the final seven games (thanks in large part to a nine-turnover game in Pittsburgh). The Lions, meanwhile, gave up 122 or more yards rushing in 14 of 16 games. Wow. Somehow they weren't even last in the league in run defense, though they were last in total defense.

San Francisco at Green Bay
The Packers bounced back in a big way this week, trouncing the Cowboys to get back over .500. But now they will face a 49ers defense that will give Ryan Grant no room to run. As long as Vernon Davis doesn't score 12 touchdowns, the Packers ought to win another tough home game. Packers 17 49ers 13

If they played in 1990: These teams didn't play in 1990, but if they had, it is safe to assume that the 49ers would have crushed them. The Packers followed a suprising 10-6 1989 season with a 6-10 showing in 1990. The offense, with Anthony Dilweg starting seven games, was not especially good, and the defense wasn't any better. The 49ers were 14-2 behind Joe Montana's last full season as a starter for the 49ers, and Jerry Rice's first 100-reception season.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City
The Steelers are sore from their home loss to the Bengals, and this should be a good chance to bounce back against the two-win Chiefs. I don't think Kansas City will let them run away with it though. Steelers 24 Chiefs 14

If they played in 1990: It's too bad that these two teams didn't meet in 1990. The Chiefs had a huge offense: Christian Okoye ran for 805 yards, and Barry Word had 1,015. Five receivers tallied over 40 catches from Steve DeBerg, who had a stunning 23-4 touchdown-interception ratio. The Steelers had the league's number one defense in terms of yardage, and gave up just nine passing touchdowns...and grabbed 24 interceptions, a pretty nice ratio.

Atlanta at NY Giants
The Giants need to win. They haven't since they beat Oakland on October 11. Atlanta needs to beat a good team. They haven't since they beat the Vikings in Week 16 last year. I like the Giants in this one, but it won't be easy. Giants 29 Falcons 27.

If they played in 1990: Fortunately for the 1990 Falcons, they avoided a game against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants. Atlanta threw the ball well, mostly Chris Miller to Andre Rison, but managed to lose seven straight games, none by more than 12 points (though they turned the ball over 20 times during that stretch). The Giants were 13-3, largely thanks to a defense that ranked 4th against the run and 6th against the pass.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
The Saints could use a breather. They are straping by against teams that they should be beating easily. The Buccaneers have played two good games with Josh Freeman at the helm, and might be able to ride that and their home crowd to an upset...but they won't. Saints 34 Buccaneers 26

When they played in 1990: The 3-5 Saints crushed the 4-5 Buccaneers 35-7. The Bucs actually led 7-0 after a 12-yard Chris Chandler touchdown run. Then the Saints scored 35 unanswered points, with four rushing TDs by Rueben Mayes and Craig Hayward. Neither team finished with a winning record. All very forgettable.

Buffalo at Jacksonville
The Bills made a big move by firing Dick Jauron (the week after their bye for some reason). The move can't hurt them too much, since Jauron wasn't exactly an inspiring force in Buffalo. Hopefully they come out fired up, and not hung over. Bills 16 Jaguars 13

1990: The Jags didn't exist!

Indianapolis at Baltimore
The Colts used to play in Baltimore, and the Ravens used to be the Browns. The Ravens got a week off to stomp on the hapless Browns. Their defense better call back some of that old Ravens-magic, because, as we know, the Colts win a lot. Colts 34 Ravens 33

If they played in 1990: The Colts and Browns didn't play, sadly. Basically read the above about a Browns-Lions matchup, and apply here. The Colts were 27th in offense, 26 in defense, but managed to win seven games, going 5-3 in the second half of the season.

Seattle at Minnesota
The Seahawks are still barely alive in the NFC playoff race (and the NFC West division title race, actually). Unless the Vikings offense completely falls apart, it is hard to see Seattle winning. Vikings 28 Seahawks 17

When they played in 1990: The Vikings beat Seattle 24-21 in Week 11, just before the Seahawks won five of their last six to finish 9-7. Minnesota score the final 10 points in the game, wrapping up the win on a 24-yard Fuad Reveiz field goal. Here is a preview of the game from the Seattle Times, in which Gil Lyons warns the Seahawks to watch out for the Vikings running game and defensive end Chris Doleman. The Vikings ran OK, and neither team threw very well, but the Vikings had only one sack.

Arizona at St. Louis
The Rams nearly upset the Saints, and following that, one might expect them to pull the same trick on the Cardinals. But I think the Cardinals know them well enough not to take this game lightly (they've beaten St. Louis five straight times), plus they need to continue to put distance between themselves and the 49ers and Seahawks. Cardinals 27 Rams 14

If they played in 1990: Back then, the Rams played in Los Angeles and the Cardinals, who had just moved from St. Louis, were called the Phoenix Cardinals. The Cardinals and Rams finished with the same record in 1990: 5-11. Both had very bad defenses, but the Rams and Jim Everett threw the ball pretty well. I think the Rams would have pulled this one out.

NY Jets at New England
The Patriots don't lose two consecutive games. They just don't. What terrible justification. Really, it's because Mark Sanchez is going to implode early. Patriots 30 Jets 10

When they played in 1990: You know you are bad when you finish five games behind a division rival...and that division rival is only 6-10. That's what the 1990 Patriots did, going 1-15 and doing so in style: They fielded the 3rd worst offense in the league, and ranked 27th on defense, with a final point differential of -265. The Jets were major contributors to that differential, winning 37-13 and 42-7 against the Pats.

Cincinnati at Oakland
The Bengals might have a little let down coming off their huge win over Pittsburgh, but that won't be enough for Oakland to win. Bengals 20 Raiders 7

When they played in 1990: The Raiders dominated the Bengals 24-7 to improve to 10-4 and seemingly ending the Bengals playoff hopes, dropping them to 7-7. But, the Bengals won their final two games and beat Houston in the AFC Wildcard round, earning themselves a date in the divisional round with...the Raiders. And, the second time around, the Raiders won again, this time 20-10. The Raiders ran for 480 yards in the two games. Wow.

San Diego at Denver
With Chris Simms at the helm, the Broncos can't win this game. At least, I don't think so. Chargers 27 Broncos 17

When they played in 1990: The Chargers and Broncos split the season series in 1990. Neither made the playoffs.

Philadelphia at Chicago
Jay Cutler can't keep throwing so many interceptions if the Bears hope to win any games. The Bears actually seem to respond OK after big let downs; they'll need to this week. Eagles 34 Bears 24

If they played in 1990: Sadly, no Eagles-Bears game in 1990 took place. Buddy Ryan had left the Bears after the 1985 Super Bowl season, and built the league's best defense in Philadelphia. The Eagles lost in their first playoff game after going 10-6. The Bears were the only NFC Central team not to finish 6-10, and they won a home playoff game agaisnt New Orleans before being crushed by the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants.

Tennessee at Houston
The Texans have a chance to fully assert themselves in the AFC Wildcard race, but the Titans bring in a three-game winning streak. I don't like testing fate; vince Young can't have four straight good games, right? Texans 30 Titans 20

If they played in 1990: Unfortunately, the Texans did not exist. Err...is that unfortunate? Oh, and the Titans were the Oilers, but whatever.

Week 11

New York Jets at New England: Matt Cassell is coming along pretty well for a guy who hadn't started since high school. I think Brett Favre will continue to turn the ball over. Patriots, 27-21.

Denver at Atlanta: The Broncos are always dangerous on offense, but they won't challenge Matt Ryan. Jay Cutler is another turnover machine. Falcons, 34-20.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati: The Eagles typically do well against lesser teams. Donovan McNabb should be running this team, and they shouldn't be running late in the 4th quarter. Eagles, 34-14.

Chicago at Green Bay: Green Bay hasn't been particularly impressive, but this seems like a game they will win. Even if Kyle Orton plays, will he be able to move? Packers, 20-17.

Houston at Indianapolis: I love Andre Johnson, and the Houston quarterbacks are able to get him the ball, but his team doesn't have enough weapons. Peyton Manning is starting to look better. Colts, 28-21.

New Orleans at Kansas City: I can't pick the Saints this year. Nobody seems to be able to lose to the Chiefs though. I still defend Herm Edwards' two-point attempt. Saints, 27-24.

Oakland at Miami: The Raiders suck. Dolphins, 24-10.

Baltimore at New York Giants: I have been a huge Ravens fan this year. If anybody can beat the Giants right now, it might be Baltimore. But... probably not. Giants, 28-17.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay will have Cadillac Williams back. Won't matter against the Viking defense. I see a lot of field goals. Vikings 29-20.

Detroit at Carolina: The Lions suck. Panthers, 31-17.

St. Louis at San Francisco: Both teams suck. The 49ers looked OK on Monday Night Football. 49ers, 30-20.

Arizona at Seattle: Arizona had to fight way too hard to beat the 49ers. But Seattle finds ways to lose. Cardinals, 35-26.

San Diego at Pittsburgh: The Chargers don't impress me all that much. One of the Steelers quarterbacks will lead them to a win. Steelers, 24-16.

Tennessee at Jacksonville: My big upset of the week. Jacksonville hasn't been as typically hard-nosed as in past years, but they might come out a little jacked-up this week. Jaguars, 20-16.

Dallas at Washington: Coming out of a bye week with Tony Romo back in, Dallas is due for a big win. Cowboys, 24-17.

Cleveland at Buffalo: Who knows? Buffalo has to turn things around, now. Bills, 27-20.