Week 12 Picks

Green Bay at Detroit
The Packers destroyed the Lions at Lambeau Field earlier this year. The short week will hurt both teams, especially Detriot, since Matthew Stafford likely won't play. Daunte Culpepper has played Green Bay plenty in his career, but that didn't seem to help in Week 6 (6 of 14 with an interception before being replaced by Drew Stanton). The Lions passing game has come alive with Stafford, and the Packers defense is down Al Harris and Aaron Kampman, so maybe there is hope for Culpepper. Still, the Packers should be able to put up a lot of points against the Lions' wreck of a defense. Packers 30 Lions 22

Oakland at Dallas
Now this is nice: The Raiders, who occasionally look like the NFL's version of the Knicks, will pop up now and then and shock decent teams-like when they beat Philadelphia and Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are like their hometown counterparts the Mavericks: Sometimes they are so pretty, you start to think they can finally get over the hump. Then they get dominated by the Packers and barely beat Washington (at home!). So will we see both teams' good sides? Or both teams' bad sides? Or some combination? Anyway you slice it, this probably won't be fun to watch. Cowboys 16 Raiders 13

NY Giants at Denver
The Giants are like a slightly more palatable version of the Cowboys: They tend to shock you with random off days and random dominating performance, but in the end, they seem to come out looking OK. Denver has two streaks this year: six straight wins, four straight losses. Some think that the rest of the league has caught up, and that Denver is basically finished. But it is hard to ignore the fact that when they were winning, it wasn't on smoke and mirrors; they were playing really solid, sound football. With Kyle Orton starting, they at least have a chance. Giants 27 Broncos 23

Tampa Bay at Atlanta
The Falcons need to see Tampa Bay coming to town just like New Orleans needed to see the Buccaneers on their schedule last week. Atlanta has proven that if nothing else, they are not bad. In a lot of ways, they are the most consistent team in the NFL: they never have huge letdown games, and they always bring a dangerous offense and a scrappy defense. It just doesn't always turn into wins. Falcons 34 Buccaneers 17

Miami at Buffalo
For some reason I like the Dolphins. I think Ricky Williams will have success against the Bills defense, and Chad Henne will not be forced to play over his head. I also like Ryan Fitzpatrick's approach this season: he seems to recognize that as the back-up quarterback on a team with little hope in 2009, there is almost no pressure on him. As such, he goes out and plays smart, doesn't try to force anything, and is willing to take a five step drop and chuck the ball long to Terrell Owens or Lee Evans. Sometimes, a team that is struggling on offense needs somebody to step in and just take everything back to basics. It reminds me of when Todd Bouman used to fill in for Daunte Culpepper for the 2001 Vikings: He didn't try to run the offense like he was an all-star. He just came in and threw it up for Randy Moss, and stayed out of the way when he could. Dolphins 24 Bills 16

Cleveland at Cincinnati
The Bengals have lost some head scratchers this year. They started off 0-1 after the Broncos freakish last minute touchdown pass that was actually perfectly defended. Then they somehow lost at home to Houston, and then last week on the road in Oakland. Still, they have won every "big" game on their schedule, that is, they are 5-0 against the AFC North. But, one of their letdowns came in Week 4 against Cleveland. They had to score with 1:55 to tie the game...then missed the extra point that would have put them ahead. Then they came within four seconds (!) of a tie before Shayne Graham hit a 31-yard field goal to seal the victory. The Browns scored more points in Detriot last week than they have in what feels like 10 years, but I think the Bengals will step up this week at home.
Bengals 31 Browns 14

Seattle at St. Louis
The Seahawks are pretty bad, but they do seem to be able to beat teams that are even worse than them--one of their two shut outs this season came against the Rams. Marc Bulger is out, so the Seahawks don't have many excuses if they lose.
Seahawks 20 Rams 17

Carolina at NY Jets

Carolina wins then loses, wins then loses. Mark Sanchez mostly loses. Panthers 28 Jets 20

Washington at Philadelphia

Washington held the Cowboys' offense completely in check, and the Eagles haven't quite been on point the last few weeks. I can't believe how many NFL games Jason Campbell has started. Eagles 23 Washington 19

Indianapolis at Houston

The Colts may not be making it look easy anymore, but they are already closing in on home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Colts 31 Texans 27

Kansas City at San Diego

It is hard not to like the Chiefs after that upset against Pittsburgh. San Diego has been playing very well, and Philip Rivers can avoid the costly turnovers that Ben Roethlisberger didn't. Chargers 27 Chiefs 24

Jacksonville at San Francisco

The 49ers offense does seem to have some life now, but overall they are not able to complete games most of the time. Jacksonville is right in the thick of the playoff race. Jaguars 17 49ers 14

Chicago at Minnesota

If Jay Cutler were going to pick a game to get back on track, this would be the ideal one. The Bears on the verge of seeing their playoff hopes disappear. Vikings 35 Bears 17

Arizona at Tennessee

Once again, I am picking against Vince Young. That seems like a good place to start, I think.Cardinals 27 Titans 17

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Even though these teams are only two game over .500 combined, this is still a great matchup. The loser of this game is in deep trouble, but still neither team will be out of it. Frankly, without Troy Polamalu the Steelers defense can't win games like they used to. Baltimore just needs to start scoring touchdowns instead of field goals. Ravens 21 Steelers 20

New England at New Orleans

I agree with those who don't trust New England's defense. But, I really don't trust the Saints defense. This game will come down to whether the Saints can keep the Patriots offense at bay long enough. Patriots 38 Saints 34