Favre You Later

I've never wanted to say I told you so so much in my life. I'm not the only one. 

It looks like Brett Favre is retiring once again. When I read this, relief washed over me in an awesome wave. Last summer, the news of Favre's "return" seemed like a horrible nightmare, for so many reasons; mostly because he wanted to play for the Vikings. But, in a wider sense, it was a lose-lose situation for everybody involved. 

Favre showed over his last few seasons in Green Bay that while he was huge in helping the team win regular season games, he was no longer a difference make in playoff games, and that the long-held home-field advantage of playing in the cold at Lambeau was gone. The 2008 NFC Championship was a perfect summary of Favre's last 10 seasons in Green Bay following the Packers loss in Super Bowl XXXII to Denver. He looked cold and inpatient, and threw two interceptions, one coming in overtime, setting up the Giants game-winning field goal.

For the Packers, bring Favre back would have been a disaster. He would not have improved much on their 6-10 record, and they would have still been one year behind on developing Aaron Rodgers. No, they didn't want to see him in another uniform, but a change at quarterback was long over due. The two team most talked about in Favre-trade rumors were the Vikings and Jets, two team in almost the exact same position as the Packers at the time. They were "a quarterback away" from being contenders, but also had young quarterbacks that will likely be the future of the team. 

It was clear right away that the Vikings were not in the running; why would the Packers let a division competitor have their best player? So, it was off to New Jersey with Brett. Big mistake. And it played out the same way for the Jets as it had been for the Packers. Favre started out hot, the team jumped out to a nice record, then Favre got cold, showed his age, and the season fell apart. They missed the playoffs and fired Eric Mangini. Now they are on year one with a new coach, Favre is retiring, and Kellen Clemens is no better off than he was going into last season. And, the Jets don't even have a playoff game to show for it. Gross.

Maybe I am just celebrating out of Favre-hatred. Yeah, I am. But this is what happens when you lean on aging super stars, and ignore years and years of interceptions and poor decision making. The team that really won out of all of this? Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers looks like he will at least be a solid starter, and they will go into 2009 knowing they have a quarterback. Here's hoping we don't hear about Favre again until he is up for the Hall of Fame or crashing his ATV in the backwoods of Mississippi.

Week 17

No Playoff Implications:

Kansas City (2-13) at Cincinnati (3-11-1): Here are two teams that probably should have three or four more wins. They held leads in most of their losses, especially the Chiefs, who seem to blow a 4th quarter lead every week. I think Kansas City will have the advantage in this battle of awful. Chiefs 31-27.

Detroit (0-15) at Green Bay (5-10): Is anybody completely shocked by the Lions record? Maybe in the context of an NFL season in the age of parity, yes, but the Lions really are this bad. Their defense seems incapable of improving from year to year. The Packers record doesn't surprise me all that much either, and I'm not sure Brett Favre would have taken this team to the playoffs. Packers 17-13.

Washington (8-7) at San Francisco (6-9): Imagine it is 1987. Joe Gibbs is bringing his Washington team into San Francisco to take on Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, and Jerry Rice. That might be the only way to tolerate this game. Then again, it might be a nice hard-nosed, smash-mouth type of game. Washington 13-9.

Seattle (4-11) at Arizona (8-7): Seattle has probably played better than their record the whole year. Little consolation for their fans, I'm sure. I think the Cardinals are reeling a little bit right now. They are so one-dimensional, it can't be a surprise to see them drop to 8-7. I like Seattle in this game. Seahawks 24-17.

Cleveland (4-11) at Pittsburgh (11-4): The Steelers failed to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That is OK for them. They have proven themselves at home and on the road all season long. A rematch in Nashville should be more frightening for the Titans. Meanwhile, the Browns keep going through quarterbacks, now going with Bruce Gradkowski. Steelers 20-10.

Tennessee (13-2) at Indianapolis (11-4): Obviously there are games with playoff-bound teams. But this one, and the previous two, are games where neither team can change their post season seed. Who knows what either of these teams will do in this game? It could be a preview of a playoff game, but not a very telling one. Colts 24-16.

One Fights, Another Spoils:

St. Louis (2-13) at Atlanta (10-5): St. Louis can't knock Atlanta out of the playoffs, but they can make them go on the road in round one. Falcons 35-14.

New England (10-5) at Buffalo (7-8): A lost season for the Bills. They have a chance to make it the same for New England (even though Tom Brady's injury is the real reason for that). The Patriots are playing really well right now, and if Miami loses, I like the Pats to challenge either Pittsburgh or Tennessee in the second round. Patriots 30-17.

Carolina (11-4) at New Orleans (8-7): Drew Brees isn't going to need any motivation this week. He is a gamer. Carolina could drop from the 2 seed to the 5. That should scare them into a win. Panthers 21-14.

Oakland (4-11) at Tampa Bay (9-6): Oakland hasn't played two good games consecutively in years. Tampa Bay hasn't played any good games in a while. Still, at home, with the playoffs on the line, I like the Bucs. Bucs 20-17.

Chicago (9-6) at Houston (7-8): The biggest question here is whether Houston will continue to experiment with players and plays. Last week against Oakland they did a lot of new things, and lost. The Bears don't appear to be playing all that desperate, but they have been playing bad teams. I think Houston will throw for 350 yards. Texans 31-24.

Jacksonville (5-10) at Baltimore (10-5): I pleasantly surprised by Jacksonville's slight turn around here at the end of a forgettable season. With coaches like Jack Del Rio and Mike Tice, it should be expected. They played pretty tough against Indianapolis. Baltimore's defense will torture them this week. Ravens 23-10.

New York Giants (12-3) at Minnesota (9-6): The Giants have nothing to play for. The Vikings need to win this game to get into the playoffs, save Brad Childress' job, and at least somewhat put off that choke reputation of theirs. I think New York will start pulling people in the 3rd quarter. Vikings 27-21.

The Big Ones:

Miami (10-5) at New York Jets (9-6): As much as the Jets seem to be throwing this year away (ahem, Favre), playing at home against Miami is ideal for them. This should be low scoring, and as long as Favre doesn't have to throw the ball with under four minutes in the game, they should win. Jets 24-20.

Dallas (9-6) at Philadelphia (8-6-1): Three months ago these teams looked pretty good. Now they are both going to be done a week from now, if not sooner. I guess I like the Eagles in this game, mostly because Tony Romo is going to throw the ball away a few times. Eagles 27-23.

Denver (8-7) at San Diego (7-8): What a cruel joke. A head-to-head match-up in Week 17, with both teams fighting for the same playoff spot. Why a joke? Because they are 15-15 combined, and the winner almost surely will lose to Indianapolis in the playoffs. This game will be tense and exciting, but ultimately, it is a match-up of the two worst teams still in playoff contention. Broncos 34-31.

So wrong, So much of the time

Once again, I have proved that I cannot pick NFL games. Here are some of the worst misses:

I thought that when the Jets went to New England last Thursday the game would be a little bit more on the defensive side. Instead, the Patriots gained over 500 yards, and the Jets used a balanced attack to put up 34 points. The Patriots actually played a pretty solid game overall, but the Jets came up with big plays, and New England did not. In the first half the Jets looked like they might run away with the game, especially after a Leon Washington 92-yard kickoff return. But, as one might expect, Bill Belichick made the proper adjustments at half time, and the Pats stormed back into the game.

The Jets defense had the epitome of a bend-but-don't-break performance. They somehow managed to give up 400 yards passing to Matt Cassel. Cassel looked as good as he has all year, turning from a one-read quarterback into one who was checking down and finding single coverage when he had to. But the Jets came up with a few stops in this game, even if they were on their own side of the field. They won this game because of two long drives, one in the 4th quarter, and the second on the opening possession of overtime. This was a really great game, and was a rare one that leads the viewer to believe that both teams are legit, even if one lost.

Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos actually managed to play some defense in Atlanta, and came up with a huge win. My mantra with the Broncos all season has said that Jay Cutler will put up big numbers, but their defense will let them down. For now, they look to have the AFC West and a first-round home game wrapped up, with San Diego (4-6) losing to Pittsburgh. Sunday's 24-20 win over the Falcons might spark a run for the Broncos.

In the case of the Philadelphia Eagles, I think it is time to write them off. They have been wildly inconsistent from week to week. Sometimes, they have looked very good, even in losses. Other times, Donovan McNabb can't hold on to the ball, and they look pretty bad. Yes, Cincinnati has played tough in a lot of their losses, but the Eagles were supposed to be a contender, and they are lucky to have tied the Bengals. McNabb has to take care of the ball. The defense played solid, but somewhere along the line you have to put up some points. Ugliest game of the year? 13-13 might tell the entire story.

Where I Went Wrong

In Week 9, I suffered mostly from close games. Teams with the same record beating each other, that sort of thing. The big one was a New York-state divisional battle where Brett Favre proved me right, but the game ended the opposite of my prediction.

The first quarter of the Jets-Bills game in Buffalo must have been a bit frightening for Jets fans. The Bills came out and physically dominated the Jets. The Bills started four possessions in the first quarter, and three of them went for 50+ yard drives, with the opening drive ending in a Derek Fine touchdown. One possession ended in one play when Trent Edwards fumbled. On both sides of the ball the line of scrimmage was completely controlled by Buffalo for the first 22 or so minutes of this game. After racking up over 160 yards and a bunch of first downs, the Bills had just seven points, and had spotted New York 10. 

Edwards' fumble put the Jets on the six yard line, and led to a field goal after Buffalo's defensive spent three plays in the Jets backfield. After driving the Bills all the way down the field, Edwards threw the ball directly to Abram Elam, who took it back 92 yards for a score, putting the Jets up 13-7 after one quarter. The Bills then held the ball for 14 more plays before being stopped on 4th and 1 inside the Jets 10-yard line. After all that, even down only six points, the Bills seemed out of it. 

The Jets, on the other hand, played at an even keel. They played mistake free during the first half, and despite being out matched on 90% of plays, they took advantage when the Bills stumbled, and turned it into a half time lead. In the 4th quarter, after the Bills again wasted a long drive(this time with a Rian Lindell missed field goal), Brett Favre made New York's sole boo-boo of the game. On a play that is almost Favre-trademarked, he threw to a comeback route while being hit, and was picked off. (Peter King, in his weekly power rankings, speaking on Favre's 300th interception,  says Brett didn't appear to care much about the number. Is King lauding the ever-down-to-earth Ironman, or wondering aloud at Favre's indifference to giving away points? Knowing King, I'm guessing the former.) Jabari Greer, who covered the play perfectly, caught the ball and took it to the end zone, making the score 23-17, and giving the Bills hope. The Jets responded with one of their best drives of the season, moving 65 yards in almost nine minutes. Jay Feely capped the drive with a field goal to put them up by nine.

Meanwhile, as I thought might be the case, Jay Cutler threw the ball all over the field against the Miami Dolphins. Unfortunately, his 307 yards were coupled with three interceptions lead to a 26-17 Dolphins win. How can the Broncos manage only 14 yards rushing? Something is wrong with the game plan when that happens. Again, the Dolphins running game was held in check, but they managed to pull out a victory this time.

Lastly, the Colts did in fact upset the Patriots. An upset probably only in the sense that the Pats came in with a better record, but, nonetheless. In the first quarter the Colts looked significantly faster than the Patriots and their aged linebackers. As usual, a Belichick-coached  team managed to calm their opponents fast start. The Colts stayed in the playoff-hunt thanks to some uncharacteristic bone-headed plays by the Pats. Still, the Colts remain one of the more dangerous teams in the league because of Payton Manning. Their passing game can really click, and against a team like the Patriots, that will lead to victories.