Week 1

Games that already happened:
Pittsburgh 13, Tennessee 10 (OT)
Any team that has Pittsburgh or Tennessee on their roster is not look forward to facing either of their defenses. These two pounded the crap out of each other into a fifth period, and Pittsburgh lost star Troy Polamalu for a month or so. Both offenses had a slew of bad penalties, mostly illegal formations and illegal motion violations. Otherwise, both teams have to like what they saw last night.

Games that already matter:
Miami at Atlanta
These teams shocked everybody last season by bouncing back from terrible 2007 records. Each brought in a new quarterback, rookie Matt Ryan in Atlanta, and new-old QB Chad Pennington in Miami. Miami is built to stay competitive, but Atlanta has questions: Will Ryan continue to play like a seasoned vet? Will the defense keep them in games?
Dolphins 31 Falcons 27

Philadelphia at Carolina
The Eagles offense should pick where they left off, and a couple games without Michael Vick in the lineup will make Donovan McNabb feel like he is still the 'man'. I think Jake Delhomme will not play 16 games this year, and it won't be because of injuries.
Eagles 27 Panthers 14

Washington at NY Giants
Whenever the Giants face a better than average defense this year, it will be hard to forecast a winner. Even with their running game, it is hard to hang your hat on Eli Manning and his current number one receiver, Steve Smith. Washington just has to limit turnovers and score in the red zone, and they could make the playoffs.
Washington 20 Giants 17

Chicago at Green Bay
Suddenly this is a battle of quarterbacks. I like Aaron Rodgers at home.
Packers 35 Bears 24

San Francisco at Arizona
A divisional matchup in Week 1 is a big deal, even if the division is the awful (in 2008) NFC West. Arizona has to prove that they really are an elite team, and San Francisco has to prove that they have improved from last year.
Cardinals 27 49ers 16

St. Louis at Seattle
A divisional match-up in Week 1 is a big deal, even if the division is the awful (in 2008) NFC West. St. Louis probably doesn't have a division title in their future, but the Seahawks will need this win for tiebreakers later.
Seahawks 20 Rams 10

Games that might be interesting:
Minnesota at Cleveland
As a Vikings fan, I will be very interested in this game. And then all those people who still care about Brett Favre will be watching. I expect Minnesota's defense to feast on Brady Quinn.
Vikings 30 Browns 10

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Jacksonville always gets up for games against the Colts, even if they are a decided underdog.
Colts 21 Jaguars 10

Kansas City at Baltimore
The Ravens got a warning shot last night from the Steelers, who look like they haven't lost a step since last February. The Chiefs are hoping this is a rebuilding year where they actually build up.
Ravens 24 Chiefs 9

NY Jets at Houston
The Jets are being hyped a lot after stealing a lot of Baltimore's defense, and the Texans have (realistic) playoff expectations for the first time in their short history. At home, Matt Schaub should be able to handle the wild Jets D.
Texans 27 Jets 17

Games that probably won't be very interesting:
Denver at Cincinnati
Will Kyle Orton play or won't he? Who cares?
Bengals 20 Broncos 16

Detroit at New Orleans
Drew Brees gets a nice warm-up to start the season.
Saints 41 Lions 21

Dallas at Tampa Bay
Tony Romo breaks a sweat to start the season.
Cowboys 27 Buccaneers 13

Games that happen on Monday night:
Buffalo at New England
Tom Brady will look to set the pace for what many expect to be another record-setting season. The Bills will try to keep Trent Edwards off the ground as much as possible.
Patriots 31 Bills 21

San Diego at Oakland
Even without Shawn Merriman, should he face yet another suspension, the Chargers are far and away the best team in the AFC West.
Chargers 28 Raiders 7

Predicting 2009

I did something I have never done before: Printed out an the entire NFL schedule for 2009, and predicted the winner for every single game. Thus, I arrived at the following predictions. I want to point out that doing it this way, while very precise and much more accurate, leds things to get a bit skewed. Had I just come up with records off the top of my head, surely the Eagles, Dolphins, and Ravens would not have racked up so many wins. But I'll stand by this tally.

AFC East

New England 13-3

Miami 12-4

Buffalo 6-10

New York 4-12

AFC North

Baltimore 12-4

Pittsburgh 10-6

Cincinnati 8-8

Cleveland 4-12

AFC South

Houston 10-6

Indianapolis 9-7

Jacksonville 8-8

Tennessee 8-8

AFC West

San Diego 10-6

Kansas City 5-11

Denver 3-13

Oakland 3-13

NFC East

Philadelphia 13-3

New York 10-6

Dallas 8-7

Washington 7-9

NFC North

Minnesota 11-5

Chicago 9-7

Green Bay 8-8

Detroit 4-12

NFC South

Atlanta 10-6

New Orleans 10-6

Carolina 8-8

Tampa Bay 4-12

NFC West

Seattle 10-6

Arizona 8-8

San Francisco 6-10

St. Louis 5-11

AFC Wildcard

San Diego over Miami

Pittsburgh over Houston

AFC Divisional

Baltimore over San Diego

New England over Pittsburgh

AFC Championship

New England over Baltimore

NFC Wildcard

New Orleans over Atlanta

New York over Seattle

NFC Divisional

Minnesota over New Orleans

New York over Philadelphia

NFC Championship

Minnesota over New York

Super Bowl

New England over Minnesota

*Note that the NFC Playoffs are eerily similar to the 2000 NFC Playoffs. A coincidence, for sure.

Power Rankings

I think this is probably the most difficult and meaningless (saying a lot) post I could possibly write. But here goes, power rankings heading into the first week of the regular season:

1. Pittsburgh: I'm abiding by the old number-one-until-somebody-beats-them rule here, against my gut feeling that the Steelers are not the best team in the league right now, even with the fancy ring.

2. New England: There are some questions about their pass defense, but they can out-gun any team in the league with Tom Brady healthy, and with Brandon Meriweather at safety, things can't be all bad.

3. Philadelphia: I feel like I've been brainwashed to believe that the Eagles are this good. Their offense is pretty good when they are on, and even without Jim Johnson the defense is still top 15, right?

4. Baltimore: I like any team that can play as physical as the Ravens. And I like their schedule. (AFC West, NFC North)

5. New York Giants: Like the Steelers, the Giants are high because, as of yet, nobody has de-throned them. I don't particularly like Eli Manning, and without a solid receiver, I think he will struggle more than usual.

6. Tennessee: Like the Ravens, they should be able to pound a lot of their opponents, especially early in the year. I'd like to guess that the Kerry Collins era is about to run its course, but I'm usually wrong about things like that (see numerous posts about Brett Favre retiring).

7. Indianapolis: Conventional wisdom tells us that losing a bunch of coaches, chiefly Tony Dungy, and Marvin Harrison would be enough to sink a team before they start. But conventional wisdom also tells us that any team with Payton Manning has a fighting chance. Plus he gets to throw against the NFC West four times.

8. Carolina: Jake Delhomme could ruin this ranking. He struggled mightily in the playoffs at home against the Cardinals, and if any of that carries over, the Panthers are sunk.

9. Minnesota: With Brett Favre, Tarvaris Jackson, or Sage Rosenfels, this is probably a 10-6 team, but they will start out very fast (maybe 5-0 before hosting Baltimore in Week 6).

10. Atlanta: Matt Ryan has to prove that he can do it again, but it didn't look like beginner's luck. If the defense comes together, the Falcons will rise from 10 pretty fast.

11. Miami: See note above; replace Delhomme with Chad Pennington. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will rush for a combined 2,000 yards.

12. Arizona: The fact of the matter is that Arizona lost eight games last season including the Super Bowl. They made an excellent run at the right time, but they still have a lot of weaknesses that can and will be exploited. And Kurt Warner is a year older.

13. San Diego: Talent, talent, talent. We'll see if they make a go at it this season, though something about them (Norv Turner) tells me they won't.

14. Green Bay: Everybody is the world loves the Packers after that spirited preseason, but they are going to have to prove it in a real game first. It is very hard to judge a defense that just switched schemes by a few quarters against offenses that are spending more time learning their base plays than they are game-planning for Green Bay.

15. Dallas: It's hard to believe that Tony Romo won't lead the Cowboys to eight or nine wins. It is also hard to believe that Tony Romo will play in a playoff game this season.

16. New Orleans: Like the Packers, the Saints will probably be more fun than good this season.

17. Chicago: Jay Cutler is pretty good at times, but he also will lose the Bears a couple games this season. Throw in an aging and declining defense, and I see 8-8.

18. Houston: If Houston can manage a sweep of either Indianapolis or Tennessee, they will win the division. If.

19. Seattle: A lot of folks like Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks this season. And why not? They play in the worst division in the NFC and have a frightening receiving corps.

20. Washington: Washington finished number four on the defensive side last season, and added Albert Haynesworth to the fold. Yes, that's right. The number four defense in the NFL added arguably the most valuable defensive player in the league. The question remains: Can Jason Campbell do enough to help the defense win games?

21. San Francisco: Mike Singletary adds a lot of fire to the team, but they still don't have the

players.

22. Cincinnati: With Carson Palmer healthy they should at least win three or four more games.

23. Buffalo: Ultimately, the young and inexperienced offensive line will be their undoing.

24. Jacksonville: Nice to see Jack Del Rio clean house a little, casting out receivers Reggie Williams and Matt Jones in favor of veteran Torry Holt. Probably won't translate to many wins this season though.

25. New York Jets: Starting a rookie quarterback as a rookie coach worked for both John Harbaugh and Mike Smith last year. Rex Ryan will not join the club.

26. Kansas City: It's kind of hard to believe that they thought Chan Gailey was a good idea to start with.

27. Tampa Bay: Starting over. We'll forgive them a couple years to rebuild around Josh Freeman.

28. Cleveland: Like the Steelers and Giants, we're waiting for them to prove us wrong. They could start by scoring a touchdown.

29. Oakland: There's not enough space here to fully explain why the Raiders are the 29th best team in the NFL.

30. St. Louis: Maybe Marc Bulger will bring the Rams back to live after two awful seasons. Maybe?

31. Denver: Hard to like any of the moves they made this off season. Except for benching Brandon Marshall in the preseason.

32. Detroit

Final Regular Season Ranks

1. New York Giants: They lost, and I moved them up. what gives? Seeing them up close made me realize how dominant their offensive line is, and Steve Spagnuolo has some pretty nice blitz packages. I'm guessing it will come down to a game at the Meadowlands against Carolina.

2. Tennessee Titans: Baltimore could make things tough on the Titans come round two. But I think the Colts would beat them.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Leftwich probably could win a couple playoff games with this team. Steelers fans should probably hope he stays on the bench though.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Nine wins in a row is nothing to scoff at. I think they will challenge either Pittsburgh or Tennessee in the second round, and if they get through there, might be Super.

5. Baltimore Ravens: Here's hoping we get to see Baltimore play Miami, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Talk about some old-school football.

6. Carolina Panthers: Will anybody be able to stop DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith in the playoffs?

7. Miami Dolphins: They just keep on winning. Their defense deserves a lot of credit. How valuable is Ricky Williams? Because of him the Dolphins go into the playoffs with two relatively fresh running backs.

8. New England Patriots: By far the best team to miss the playoffs, probably playing as well as anybody right now. Matt Cassel appears to be the real deal, and if reports that Tom Brady's recovery is going slowly are correct, New England might have to throw Cassel a fat one-year deal.

9. Atlanta Falcons: Not the way you would like to handle the Rams at home going into the playoffs, but they should beat the Cardinals in round one.

10. Minnesota Vikings: Granted, it was against some of the Giants back-ups. But the Vikings made a pretty nice 4th-quarter comeback Sunday, and clinched the NFC North.

11. Philadelphia Eagles: They have played a lot better in December, but this big win over Dallas isn't enough to wash that performance against Washington out of my memory.

12. San Diego Chargers: I guess you have to give them credit for fighting and getting back into the mix. They still aren't that good.

13. Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo and Brett Favre looked a lot alike in the last few weeks. And they both cost their teams a shot at the playoffs.

14. Arizona Cardinals: Maybe the most one-dimensional team in the NFL. Probably won't win a playoff game.

15. Houston Texans: I like Matt Schuab and Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the league. Steve Slaton looks to be their running back for a few years also. If they can improve on defense, they will be a contender next year. (Yes, everybody said the exact same thing last year. It's true.)

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs were one of the more balanced teams for a lot of this season, but the run defense wore down, and Jeff Garcia couldn't stay healthy. I think they will challenge the NFC South again next season.

17. Chicago Bears: The Bears defense was simply terrible. They are the biggest reason this team missed the playoffs. And, really, the only really they even hung around was because of some weird special teams plays.

18. Denver Broncos: Their defense was awful all year, and it didn't come through Sunday night.

19. New York Jets: At 8-3 they were on the fast track to an AFC East title and maybe even a first-round bye. Then all of their weaknesses got exposed, over and over. Brett Favre needs to retire. The Jets should look at what Aaron Rodgers did, and hope that Clemens can be the man by 2010.

20. New Orleans: Aside from some individual performances, the Saints were a big disappointment.

21. San Francisco 49ers: Mike Singletary got this team to play with some guts in the second half of the season. I think they are a better team than most people know.

22. Washington: They need more from the quarterback position.

23. Buffalo Bills: Overachieved for a little while, but came down to Earth hard. Will have to start finishing drives before they can be taken seriously. 

24. Oakland Raiders: A pretty solid defense, a quarterback who is almost ready to step up and be the man, and a couple good running backs. 8-8 next year?

25. Green Bay Packers: They had some of the same problems last year, but Brett Favre helped hide them. I don't think he would have made much difference this year.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars: Somewhere along the line this team completely lost focus, and despite a couple nice efforts at the end of the year, I would be worried about them were I a fan.

27. Cincinnati Bengals: If they had played as hard as a unit with Carson Palmer, they might have stayed relevant for a little while. 

28. Seattle Seahawks: I might buy the injury argument with this team, but with everybody healthy could they have accounted for even half of their 12 losses? Doubtful.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: This team is so young. They took a lot of lumps this year. Hopefully Tony Gonzalez gets a chance somewhere else next year, because he can still play.

30. Cleveland Browns: I am really shocked by how bad the Browns are. Last year was a fluke, apparently.

31. St. Louis Rams: I feel like St. Louis has a couple nice pieces. Marc Bulger probably needs to be on a good team to be an elite quarterback. This team has a long way to go.

32. Detroit Lions: I don't know that there is anything to say about the Lions.

Week 17

No Playoff Implications:

Kansas City (2-13) at Cincinnati (3-11-1): Here are two teams that probably should have three or four more wins. They held leads in most of their losses, especially the Chiefs, who seem to blow a 4th quarter lead every week. I think Kansas City will have the advantage in this battle of awful. Chiefs 31-27.

Detroit (0-15) at Green Bay (5-10): Is anybody completely shocked by the Lions record? Maybe in the context of an NFL season in the age of parity, yes, but the Lions really are this bad. Their defense seems incapable of improving from year to year. The Packers record doesn't surprise me all that much either, and I'm not sure Brett Favre would have taken this team to the playoffs. Packers 17-13.

Washington (8-7) at San Francisco (6-9): Imagine it is 1987. Joe Gibbs is bringing his Washington team into San Francisco to take on Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, and Jerry Rice. That might be the only way to tolerate this game. Then again, it might be a nice hard-nosed, smash-mouth type of game. Washington 13-9.

Seattle (4-11) at Arizona (8-7): Seattle has probably played better than their record the whole year. Little consolation for their fans, I'm sure. I think the Cardinals are reeling a little bit right now. They are so one-dimensional, it can't be a surprise to see them drop to 8-7. I like Seattle in this game. Seahawks 24-17.

Cleveland (4-11) at Pittsburgh (11-4): The Steelers failed to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That is OK for them. They have proven themselves at home and on the road all season long. A rematch in Nashville should be more frightening for the Titans. Meanwhile, the Browns keep going through quarterbacks, now going with Bruce Gradkowski. Steelers 20-10.

Tennessee (13-2) at Indianapolis (11-4): Obviously there are games with playoff-bound teams. But this one, and the previous two, are games where neither team can change their post season seed. Who knows what either of these teams will do in this game? It could be a preview of a playoff game, but not a very telling one. Colts 24-16.

One Fights, Another Spoils:

St. Louis (2-13) at Atlanta (10-5): St. Louis can't knock Atlanta out of the playoffs, but they can make them go on the road in round one. Falcons 35-14.

New England (10-5) at Buffalo (7-8): A lost season for the Bills. They have a chance to make it the same for New England (even though Tom Brady's injury is the real reason for that). The Patriots are playing really well right now, and if Miami loses, I like the Pats to challenge either Pittsburgh or Tennessee in the second round. Patriots 30-17.

Carolina (11-4) at New Orleans (8-7): Drew Brees isn't going to need any motivation this week. He is a gamer. Carolina could drop from the 2 seed to the 5. That should scare them into a win. Panthers 21-14.

Oakland (4-11) at Tampa Bay (9-6): Oakland hasn't played two good games consecutively in years. Tampa Bay hasn't played any good games in a while. Still, at home, with the playoffs on the line, I like the Bucs. Bucs 20-17.

Chicago (9-6) at Houston (7-8): The biggest question here is whether Houston will continue to experiment with players and plays. Last week against Oakland they did a lot of new things, and lost. The Bears don't appear to be playing all that desperate, but they have been playing bad teams. I think Houston will throw for 350 yards. Texans 31-24.

Jacksonville (5-10) at Baltimore (10-5): I pleasantly surprised by Jacksonville's slight turn around here at the end of a forgettable season. With coaches like Jack Del Rio and Mike Tice, it should be expected. They played pretty tough against Indianapolis. Baltimore's defense will torture them this week. Ravens 23-10.

New York Giants (12-3) at Minnesota (9-6): The Giants have nothing to play for. The Vikings need to win this game to get into the playoffs, save Brad Childress' job, and at least somewhat put off that choke reputation of theirs. I think New York will start pulling people in the 3rd quarter. Vikings 27-21.

The Big Ones:

Miami (10-5) at New York Jets (9-6): As much as the Jets seem to be throwing this year away (ahem, Favre), playing at home against Miami is ideal for them. This should be low scoring, and as long as Favre doesn't have to throw the ball with under four minutes in the game, they should win. Jets 24-20.

Dallas (9-6) at Philadelphia (8-6-1): Three months ago these teams looked pretty good. Now they are both going to be done a week from now, if not sooner. I guess I like the Eagles in this game, mostly because Tony Romo is going to throw the ball away a few times. Eagles 27-23.

Denver (8-7) at San Diego (7-8): What a cruel joke. A head-to-head match-up in Week 17, with both teams fighting for the same playoff spot. Why a joke? Because they are 15-15 combined, and the winner almost surely will lose to Indianapolis in the playoffs. This game will be tense and exciting, but ultimately, it is a match-up of the two worst teams still in playoff contention. Broncos 34-31.

Week 14

Oakland at San Diego: It's that time of year when we start getting games where both teams are completely out of contention. Last week we had Oakland playing Kansas City, and Houston hosting Jacksonville. Chargers 27-16.

Jacksonville at Chicago: At the beginning of the year this would have looked like a compelling, hard-hitting match-up. Eh, not so much. Bears 20-13.

Minnesota at Detroit: This could end up being Detroit's best chance at a win this year. The Vikings need to carry that momentum from Sunday night into this week, especially without Pat and Kevin Williams playing. Vikings 17-13.

Houston at Green Bay: This looks like a chance for the Packers to get well at home. But they aren't all that great at home anymore, and Houston can throw the ball around. Packers 24-21.

Cleveland at Tennessee: Ken Dorsey? Titans 30-13.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Ryan Fitzpatrick? Colts 30-13.

Atlanta at New Orleans: This should be a good game. The Saints are little unpredictable, but I think this is their week to overcome themselves. Saints 31-30.

Philadelphia at New York Giants: The Giants are number 1. Giants 24-14.

Kansas City at Denver: Denver seems to be losing these kinds of games this season. Broncos 30-17.

Miami at Buffalo: Here is my wacky, no reasoning at all behind it pick of the week: Bills 17-13.

New York Jets at San Francisco: Jets 24-16.

New England Seattle: New England always wins the week after a loss. Seattle won't break up that trend. Patriots 34-17.

St. Louis at Arizona: Arizona has to win this one, even though they will wrap up the division this week anyway. Cardinals 27-20.

Dallas at Pittsburgh: Both these teams have rough schedules coming up. The Steelers are responding well to the pressure. I like them to shut down Tony Romo. Steelers 20-17.

Washington at Baltimore: The Ravens defense will make Jason Campbell look helpless. Ravens 24-9.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: This is probably the hardest game to pick all season. I just don't like Jake Delhomme against a good defense, especially one that won't let DeAngelo Williams score four touchdowns. Bucs 20-16.

Power Ballad

After an exciting Week 10, here is where they stand:

1. Tennessee Titans: Taking care of the NFC North this year. They surely will not go undefeated.

2. New York Giants: Who will beat the Giants? They are extremely balanced.

3. Carolina Panthers: Not an impressive win against the terrible Raiders. 7-2 is a nice record though, and they are on the way to a playoff berth.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers: I can't shake the feeling that this team just needs to get into the playoffs, and then they can really do some damage. The Ravens are sneaking up.

5. New England Patriots: They refuse to lose in consecutive games. They are far realer than the Jets and Dolphins.

16. Chicago Bears: Can they hold off the Packers are create a little bit of separation? Probably not with Rex Grossman.

17. Minnesota Vikings: The defense is starting to come on, though the big plays have disappeared. They once were a threat to score on returns every other game.

20. Green Bay Packers: Rough, confusing loss. They are still right in it, especially with a win against Chicago.

28. St. Louis Rams: A week after the Raiders played the worst game of any team this year, Rams one-up them.

29. Cincinnati Bengals: No longer the best 1-8 team, now that Kansas City has joined them.

30. Seattle Seahawks: Nice effort, but you can't rest your hopes on Koren Robinson. 

31. Oakland Raiders: Jake Delhomme was awful, and yet the Raiders lose by double digits. Oof.

32. Detroit Lions

Michael Silver still has the most NFC North respect, though he dropped the Packers nine spots.

ESPN.com: CHI-14, MIN-17, G.B.-21

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): CHI-10, MIN-12, G.B.-17

CBS Sportsline: MIN-15, CHI-17, G.B.-19

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): CHI-8, MIN-14, G.B.-15

FOX Sports: CHI-11, MIN-19, G.B.-19