Another ranking

I decided that only showing a Top 5 is a bit of a cop-out this late in the year, with things so tight. The rest of the way I will give the Top 10. Philadelphia is going to have to win one more before I elevate them. That losing streak was just too ugly. The Jets will have to win and actually play well before they get back in there. 

1. Tennessee Titans: I have to move them up simply because they only have played poorly in one game.

2. New York Giants: No need to worry just yet, though Dallas, Carolina, and Minnesota will all challenge them down the stretch.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: They just keep chipping away at it. Amazing defense.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Quietly having a really nice year. Should at least win a playoff game.

5. Carolina Panthers: They could steal home field advantage from the Giants if they win out.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I thought Tampa Bay would win on Monday night. But I didn't account for them giving up a million rushing yards.

7. Baltimore Ravens. Such a play-making defense. Hard to see them making it late January, but a great season for an old team with a rookie coach.

8. New England Patriots: As up and down as this year has been, I think you have to keep an eye on them the rest of the way. 

9. Atlanta Falcons: Tough loss, but they can still secure a wildcard spot, barring a huge collapse. Watch out for Philadelphia.

10. Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo definitely makes them a better team, but he will lose a game for them now and then. They better hope he doesn't do it again this year.

13. Minnesota Vikings: I have a hard time thinking they will win more than one more game, which should open the door for Chicago.

18. Chicago Bears: They have as real a shot as the Vikings have, as long as they can take care of the Packers and Texans.

24. Green Bay Packers: The defense really sucks. That is a lot of yards to give up.

28. Oakland Raiders: I'm not sure there is even hope in the near future here.

29. Seattle Seahawks: They seem to keep games close at least.

30. Cincinnati Bengals: What an awful loss. The Colts crushed them.

31. St. Louis Rams: They are at least staying close the last couple weeks.

32. Detroit Lions

Green Bay continues to fall, their highest ranking coming from Jeff Sagarin, whose computer put them at 15. Minnesota managed two Top 10 votes.

ESPN.com: MIN-15, CHI-19, G.B.-23

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-9, CHI-17, G.B.-22

CBS Sports: MIN-10, CHI-16, G.B.-23

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-9, CHI-12, G.B.-15

FOX Sports: MIN-14, CHI-17, G.B.-21

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-11, CHI-18, G.B. 23

Vikings 20, Lions 16

Sunday's victory over the Detroit Lions was pretty typical for the Vikings. They played about one good half of football total, committed some really confusing and infuriating penalties, turned the ball over, and still put together two huge fourth-quarter drives to win the game.

After 30 minutes, it didn't really look like the Vikings were ready to play football. They came out as flat as an NFL team possibly can, and that is saying a lot for a team that generally struggles in the first quarter. Almost every Lions-Vikings game seems to go the same. The Lions play as well as they are capable of, which isn't all that good, and Minnesota does what they can to keep it close, usually by turning the balling over and giving up big plays. That was today in a nutshell.

Stepping back a little, one will notice that the Lions managed just 267 yards of offense and were 3-11 on 3rd downs (one of those came on a Vikings penalty). The Vikings contributed three first downs to the Lions on penalties today. The Lions were also o-2 on 4th downs, both times electing not to kick short field goals with one of the the best kickers in the league.

But the Vikings ran the ball very well, and Tarvaris Jackson looked pretty good filling in for Gus Frerotte, who is slowly falling apart with each week. Jackson was 8 of 10 for 105 yards in the second half, including an 11-yard touchdown pass to Visanthe Shiancoe to put the Vikings up 17-13. Jackson did make one incredibly bad decision, tossing a ball that fluttered in the air after he was hit on a throw into quadruple-coverage. Somehow the ball fell incomplete, though a few Lions had a chance to catch it. But, Jackson did show why is he capable of being an NFL quarterback: He has a huge arm, and when he is accurate, can make any throw (that is, he can put the ball in any spot). He hit Sidney Rice for 15 yards on the sideline to convert a 3rd and three, and on the Vikings final drive he found Bobby Wade for 15 yards on 3rd and four.

Chester Taylor made the most of his short time in the game. He ran 17 yards for a 3rd quarter touchdown, and caught a screen pass and scrambled for 15 yards in the final few minutes. The team has to be at least a little concerned about Adrian Peterson's three fumbles. Another time a fumble was ruled on the field, though the call was over-turned, as Peterson was clearly down when the ball came out. Still, the Vikings had to use a challenge because of it. This was the first time coach Brad Childress stuck with Peterson following fumbles. Down the stretch Peterson stayed in the game, though Childress has been known to use Taylor more in games were Peterson has fumbled. 

Now the Vikings are one game closer to their first NFC North title. The Packers are basically done now, though they can play spoilers by beating Chicago. The Vikings could probably win just one more game and still win the division, assuming Chicago stumbles once or twice more. The Green Bay-Chicago game will be key. If Chicago loses that game, they will fall to 3-3 in the NFC North, and the Vikings would then hold a tie breaker. Jared Allen's health will be important after the cheap shot he took to his left knee. 

Imagine if Minnesota had held on against Indianapolis, and not fumbled the game away in Tampa Bay. They would be sitting even prettier  right now, though I think any Vikings fan will take where they are now.

Upsetting Stat

Oakland: 3-9

Kansas City: 2-10

Seattle: 2-10

St. Louis: 2-10

Cincinnati: 1-11-1

Detroit: 0-12

Is this significant? Six teams with three or fewer wins. The interesting part about it is that the last time more than three teams finished with three or less wins was 1991. That is a long time. In 2003 every team had at least four wins. Over the past 10 years 20 teams have finished with three or fewer wins. Detroit has been that team three times. Cleveland is the only one during that time to do it in back-to-back seasons, 1999 and 2000 (They were an expansion team in '99).

So how likely is it that we will see more than three of these awful records this year? Well we have one already, the Lions. Here is how the other five look heading into the last month of the season:

Oakland Raiders: 2-10

The Raiders need only one victory to avoid this dubious distinction. They might not get it, especially if they lose to San Diego tonight. They host New England and Houston in the next two weeks, then travel to Tampa Bay. Houston is a possible win, but Tampa likely will be fighting either for a division title or playoff seeding. 

My Guess: 3-13

Kansas City Chiefs: 2-10

The Chiefs are a big reason why this field is so large; they beat Oakland last week, keep them in contention for a 3-13 year. Their schedule isn't too heavy the rest of the way — at Denver, home for San Diego and Miami, and at Cincinnati to close the year out— but, then again, no schedule is easy for a team with two wins going into December. The most they will win is two games.

My Guess: 4-12

Seattle Seahawks: 2-10

Seattle is going to lose three more games: vs New England, the Jets, and at Arizona. They also travel to St. Louis. If Seattle wins that game, both will finish 3-13 or worse.

My Guess: 2-14

St. Louis Rams: 2-10

It is a safe bet that the Rams will lose at Arizona and at Atlanta. I think they will win at home against Seattle. Their other game is also at home, against San Francisco. I think they'll lose that one.

My Guess: 3-13

Cincinnati Bengals: 1-10-1

The Bengals only shots at winning this again this year are at Cleveland and home against Kansas City in Weeks 16 and 17. Until then, they travel to Indianapolis and host Washington. Looks rough for them

My Guess: 1-14-1

So, if my predictions are right, there would be five teams with records of 3-13 or worse. Yikes.

Other stats on this stupid subject:

The teams who have finished 3-13 or worse the most since the 16-game schedule was introduced in 1978:

Indianapolis and Cincinnati five times each. Detroit, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans four times each.

Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Denver, Jacksonville, Green Bay, and Chicago have never lost more than 12 games in a season. The Chiefs obviously could do it this year.

On the other side, San Francisco has finished 13-3 or better eight times since 1978. Denver has done it four times.

The Jets, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland, Houston, Detroit, Arizona, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans have never won 13 games in a season. The Bucs and Panthers still could do it this season.

Miami, San Diego, Seattle, Minnesota, and Philadelphia have accomplished each feat exactly once. 

Week 14

Oakland at San Diego: It's that time of year when we start getting games where both teams are completely out of contention. Last week we had Oakland playing Kansas City, and Houston hosting Jacksonville. Chargers 27-16.

Jacksonville at Chicago: At the beginning of the year this would have looked like a compelling, hard-hitting match-up. Eh, not so much. Bears 20-13.

Minnesota at Detroit: This could end up being Detroit's best chance at a win this year. The Vikings need to carry that momentum from Sunday night into this week, especially without Pat and Kevin Williams playing. Vikings 17-13.

Houston at Green Bay: This looks like a chance for the Packers to get well at home. But they aren't all that great at home anymore, and Houston can throw the ball around. Packers 24-21.

Cleveland at Tennessee: Ken Dorsey? Titans 30-13.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Ryan Fitzpatrick? Colts 30-13.

Atlanta at New Orleans: This should be a good game. The Saints are little unpredictable, but I think this is their week to overcome themselves. Saints 31-30.

Philadelphia at New York Giants: The Giants are number 1. Giants 24-14.

Kansas City at Denver: Denver seems to be losing these kinds of games this season. Broncos 30-17.

Miami at Buffalo: Here is my wacky, no reasoning at all behind it pick of the week: Bills 17-13.

New York Jets at San Francisco: Jets 24-16.

New England Seattle: New England always wins the week after a loss. Seattle won't break up that trend. Patriots 34-17.

St. Louis at Arizona: Arizona has to win this one, even though they will wrap up the division this week anyway. Cardinals 27-20.

Dallas at Pittsburgh: Both these teams have rough schedules coming up. The Steelers are responding well to the pressure. I like them to shut down Tony Romo. Steelers 20-17.

Washington at Baltimore: The Ravens defense will make Jason Campbell look helpless. Ravens 24-9.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: This is probably the hardest game to pick all season. I just don't like Jake Delhomme against a good defense, especially one that won't let DeAngelo Williams score four touchdowns. Bucs 20-16.

Top Five, Bottom Five

1. New York Giants: Best team in the league, not even close.

2. Tennessee Titans: One of the easiest wins I have ever seen. They should wrap up the AFC South soon.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Toughest schedule in the league, and they just keep winning. Really one of the better defenses in recent memory, at least statistically. 

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I still feel like after Pittsburgh, the next six or seven spots are a jumble. Dallas is really close to getting back into the Top Five. Tampa is playing as consistent as anybody.

5. Indianapolis Colts: An ugly win against Cleveland, but when a team keeps winning, that means they are good.

12. Minnesota Vikings: If they had Kevin and Pat Williams the rest of the way, and could beat Detroit this week, the division would pretty much be theirs. But they almost certainly won't have those two, and without them, even Detroit is not a guaranteed win.

19. Chicago Bears: They have officially come back to Earth. They did a good job up piling up wins before this bad stretch though, and still have a shot at the playoffs.

21. Green Bay Packers: Their schedule is seriously weak, and that is their only hope. Houston, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Detroit are all very beatable, even for the struggling Packers. They'll have to win all four.

28. Oakland Raiders: Not sure what to say about the Raiders. They show up every week, but they aren't that good. Nice defense though. 

29. Seattle Seahawks: Mike Holmgren should have sat this year out. He could have started fresh in 2009 with San Francisco, a team that he might be able to take to 9-7 or so. Instead, he either won't get that year off, or he won't get a shot with the 49ers.

30. Cincinnati Bengals: I think the Bengals and Chiefs deserve some sort of consolation pat on the back for fighting so hard despite never having a chance in 2008. A lot of injuries here, too.

31. St. Louis Rams: The Rams are actually almost as bad as the Lions, if you can believe that. It is too bad for Marc Bulger, who is having an awful year. I would like to see him get a shot on a better team, because he is a legit quarterback, probably could win a Super Bowl with a decent team around him.

32. Detroit Lions: 

ESPN.com: MIN-15, CHI-19, G.B.-20

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-9, CHI-17, G.B. 20

CBS Sports: MIN- 13, CHI-18, G.B.-21

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-8, G.B.-12, CHI-13

FOX Sports: MIN-14, CHI-18, G.B.-20

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-12, CHI-19, G.B.-21

Vikings 34 Bears 14

Disclaimer: This post is coming straight from the Minnesota Vikings fan in me.

Last night's victory over the Chicago Bears at the Metrodome was quite possibly one of my favorite Vikings games ever.  That is notable for a couple reasons: One, this year's team has been one of the most frustrating to watch, ever. Two, I don't think I can say that about any other game in during the Brad Childress-era. The Vikings, for the last years, have won ugly, and lost uglier. They are that team that should be winning, but can't seem to hold things together for more than 15 minutes at a time.

Sure, there have been some good ones with Childress. His one win over the Packers, this year, 28-27, was a nice win. Last year we saw a rash of blow-outs: The Vikings won 35-17 over San Diego, 41-17 over the Giants, 42-10 over the Lions, and 27-7 over the 49ers. In 2006, some wacky special teams plays helped us go 2-0 to start the season with wins against Washington and Carolina.

2002-2005, the Mike Tice years, had a slightly different feel. We were more of an underdog then, with much lower expectations. Simply put, everybody knew we were bad. The defense was awful. The 2002 season saw the team drop to 3-10 before winning the last three games in super exciting fashion: A last-second, 53-yard field goal from dinosaur kicker Gary Anderson, a make-or-break two-point conversation by Daunte Culpepper that lifted us over the Saints, and then a two-point conversion stop for our defense against Detroit in Week 17. 2003 was a disappointing year, but full of big wins on the way to 9-7. 2004 saw the vikings beat Green Bay in the Wildcard round. Enough said. 2005 saw a six-game winning streak.

Last night, the Vikings defied everything I have believed about them for years. They over came an early deficit. They pressure the quarterback for the entire game. They scored a 99-yard touchdown. They picked off Kyle Orton three times. They did all of that in one game. If that doesn't sound like much, then you haven't been paying attention to the Vikings for the past six or seven years.

If you get a chance to watch the highlights of that game, watch the end zone view of Bernard Berrian's 99-yard touchdown. I have rarely felt such pure, wild joy while watching football as I have been feeling watching the crowd realize how open he is with the ball in the air. The camera then follows his path to the end zone, and the Vikings bench is absolutely going nuts.I felt that way on the field twice in my playing career.

My senior year, we were the top dogs in our conference, and expected to go undefeated. We lost the first game. Our first home game, the following week, was against Stoughton. We were up by maybe 10 points in the fourth quarter, when our huge fullback suddenly burst through the line and ran alone 60 yards for the game-sealing touchdown. Zac Pettit was one of those guys who was bred for football, short, wide, and always looking to hit something. We were in a jumbo package, so I was on the sideline. When he got through the line and there was nobody in front of him, our entire team went nuts, and I felt a little choked up as I sprinted to meet him and everybody else in celebration. It was the start of a 10-game winning streak.

When I played club-football at Marquette University, we were the definition of rag-tag. We had about 20 guys on the team, some who hadn't ever played football. One of the guys was named Jason Harding. He was 27 or 28, and hadn't been enrolled at the University for at least five years, but played anyway. He started at wide receiver opposite of me, and played in the nickel package. 

We generally got beat up. Our small, unorganized team was going against 60-man junior varsity squads from schools around Wisconsin. The athleticism of those guys alone was enough to make it nearly impossible to win, especially since we hardly even practiced. On one long, demoralizing drive, some 19-year-old quarterback threw a pass into the end zone, and Harding picked it off. He was not that fast anymore at 27, but he somehow managed to rumble 101 yards into the end zone, probably our only score of the game. I remember going completely insane as he ran, for what felt like 15 seconds, down the opposite sideline. I lost my voice just from that play, screaming at him to score.

And that is the feeling the Vikings game me last night. It makes me smile just thinking about it. Jared Allen was incredible, and Adrian Peterson continues to prove that he is the best running back in the game. Gus Frerotte really only made one or two bad throws, and the secondary was great, other than the long touchdown they gave up in the first quarter. And a huge goalline stand.

In summary: An awesome game, one that might ease the sting of our eventual collapse. Without Kevin and Pat Williams, the Vikings might win only one more game this year. Tough, but at least we had this moment.

Glorious Sunday

I wasn't completely sold on Arizona beating the Eagles, but it just didn't look like Donovan McNabb was going to snap out of it yet. He did, in a big way. The Cardinals were never really in that game,  and Brian Westbrook went wild with four touchdowns. The same sentiment accompanied my picking the Jets over the Broncos. The hot Jets at home against a team that never really plays a complete game. And the Broncos crushed them.

The Jets, Patriots, and Bills, all AFC East pals, pretty much refused to win on Sunday. The Jets turned it over twice. The Bills coughed it up just once, but missed two gimme field goals after squandering red zone opportunities and lost to the 49ers 10-3. Meanwhile, the Patriots were fighting it out with Pittsburgh for about 29 minutes, before Randy Moss uncharacteristically dropped a touchdown pass, and then the entire team spent rest of the game putting the ball on the ground. Five turnovers led to a 33-10 loss. The Steelers outscored New England 23-0 in the second half.

The AFC East is now a complete cluster. The Jets remain in first at 8-4. New England and Miami are a game back at 7-5. The Bills are 6-6. We are ready to write off the Bills, but they play each of those teams one more time. Suppose they win all three? They will finish at least 9-7, and that might be good enough. But probably not. 

Almost all of the division races are going to be great to watch down the stretch. In the NFC East, Philadelphia gets to play every body once more, and Dallas will host the Giants in Week 15. The NFC South will see Atlanta travel to New Orleans and Tampa Bay in Carolina this week. After those games, there will be a team alone in first place (either T.B. or CAR), and New Orleans, with a loss, would basically be done. The following week Tampa Bay has to go to Atlanta, and in Week 17 the Panthers travel to New Orleans.

The AFC North race is tight. Pittsburgh is 9-3, Baltimore 8-4. They play in Week 15, at Baltimore. The Steelers won the first game this season, so a win there would wrap up the title, most likely. 

The other division races won't be as exciting. The AFC and NFC West divisions have been more or less won, by Denver and Arizona, respectively. The Titans have a three game lead over Indianapolis with four games left—including a Week 17 battle in Indiana. I expect Tennessee to clinch the division by then.

The NFC North could come down to the wire. But there are only three divisional match-ups left, and two of them feature Detroit. Green Bay goes to Chicago in Week 16. A Bears win there would surely end Green Bay's (5-7) playoff hopes. This one will be won outside of divisional games. 

Some random thoughts, mostly from the early games Sunday:

Derek Anderson seems in capable of throwing the ball downfield. He was checking down on almost every throw, and his guys were getting hit immediately. Give credit to the Colts defense.

Braylon Edwards has no confidence in his hands. Even his catches look a little shaky. 

Peyton Manning is going to continue to look like his old self if he continues to get six and seven seconds (slight exaggeration) to throw. How does he fumble on 4th and goal though?

The Packers are giving up a ton of huge plays all the sudden, on defense and special teams. And they sure are soft against the run. 

Panthers color-commentator Eugene Robinson was frustrated with the Packers defensive back's hands-on approach to coverage. Tramon Williams was flagged for defensive pass interference in the end zone in the first half (and a personal foul), and Robinson was exacerbated by the play:

"He held the entire way... His (Williams') left arm was holding Steve (Smith) on the back-shoulder play, prevent him from making a play." He went on for about a minute...

How many times can the Bills have huge, long, time-consuming drives that go for no points?They did it yesterday against San Francisco again. They did it a couple times at home against the Jets, the game that was the turning point in their season. 5-1 has turned into 6-6.