Late Rankings

1. Tennessee Titans: Didn't see that coming. Their defense might be able to carry them.

2. New York Giants: Way to snap back into it in time to save home-field advantage. Now they will probably rest for the Vikings.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: I'll give them a break. With this schedule, you are going to lose on the road a couple times.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Win, win, win.

5. Baltimore Ravens: Huge win over Dallas, the kind that should get them a ton of respect. 

6. Carolina Panthers: I don't see this team going far in the playoffs.

7. New England Patriots: They look pretty good to me. Too bad they are going to miss the playoffs.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan is the real deal, but their defense is going to lose them a playoff game.

9. Miami Dolphins: About as consistent this year as any other team.

10. Minnesota Vikings: No other team gives away more games that they should win.

12. Chicago Bears: They are starting to look destined for a playoff spot. Or maybe the Packers and Saints are just proving how bad they are.

26. Green Bay Packers: What an awful, awful second half. Losing streaks don't just happen.

28. Oakland Raiders: Nice, unexpected win over Houston. Will they reach .500 next year? Doubt it.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: This team cannot hold on to a lead. Ever.

30. Cleveland Browns: Bruce Gradkowski gets the start this week. Not sure what to say.

31. St. Louis Rams: So the Dolphins added Chad Pennington and have won nine more games than they did last year. Maybe the Rams should look into signing Matt Hasselbeck, their version of a long-time divisional rival...

32. Detroit Lions

Since I was a little late with this, I added Sports Illustrated, which comes out with their rankings on Wednesdays.

ESPN.com: MIN-11, CHI-13, G.B.-24

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-10, CHI-13, G.B.-25

CBS Sports: MIN-13, CHI-14, G.B.-25

Don Banks (SI): MIN-11, CHI-13, G.B.-25

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-9, CHI-11, G.B.-16

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-11, CHI-14, G.B.-24

FOX Sports: MIN-12, CHI-13, G.B.-25

Vikings 17 Falcons 24

I sometimes wonder if there is another team in the NFL that is as frustrating as the Vikings. For at least two years the Vikings have played games where they appeared to completely outplay their opponent, yet lost because of literally one or two plays.

Yesterday against the Falcons, the Vikings backed up that reputation to the extreme. They coughed up four fumbles and lost despite mostly containing Michael Turner, dominating the Falcons offense in the second half, and having some really nice performances on offense. It is the kind of game that one can't really take anything from; Minnesota looked so good in so many parts of the game, but those four fumbles pretty much wreck the entire week for them.

The Falcons looked good on their opening drive. They came out in a no-huddle offense and marched down the field pretty easily, helped by a couple Vikings penalties. They went up 7-0. Chester Taylor then fumbled the ensuing kick-off, and brought it out only to the 10-yard line. But, miraculously, Tarvaris Jackson looked very sharp in leading a 90-yard drive that ended with a Visanthe Shiancoe touchdown. The Vikings defense settled down and forced a three-and-out. Then the game got stupid.

Bernard Berrian decided not to call for a fair catch with a man in his face, and bobbled the ball. Atlanta recovered and took advantage of the short field to take a 14-7 lead. Minnesota responded with another long drive. Then Adrian Peterson lost the ball at the 17 and gave Atlanta possession. Later in the half, the Vikings were at midfield and Peterson tried to close his arms around a handoff that wasn't there yet, and Atlanta again recovered a fumble. Lucky for the Vikings, Atlanta was content to let the clock expire and settle for a field goal, leaving the score at 17-7 at half. 

The second went almost exactly the same. The Vikings opening drive again looked sharp, until Jackson was sacked and the ball somehow flew backward 20 yards. Atlanta went three-and out.

The Vikings got one first down, but then Matt Birk snapped the ball too early, and Tarvaris Jackson didn't see it. He chased it down and the Vikings were forced to punt. Atlanta took over at their own 49, and used the short field to score another touchdown. This score was perhaps the last straw in the game; Ryan fumbled the ball at the goal line, and two Vikings failed to pick it up before guard Justin Blalock fell on it for the Falcons. 24-7 Atlanta.

From that point on, Atlanta did not earn a first down, while the Vikings tacked on about 150 more yards of offense, but could muster only 10 points. The no-call on a deep pass to Sydney Rice, a play that was surely pass interference, is hard to complain about after the Vikings had already given the game away.

And now both John Clayton and Michael Silver are calling for Gus Frerotte. One of my biggest pet peeves is national sports writers talking about games they didn't watch. These two clearly looked at the stats, saw that Jackson was credited for two fumbles (even though one was obviously Peterson's fault), and now are saying Frerotte will give them a better chance to win. forget the stats (they were pretty good for Jackson). Here is the difference between Jackson and Frerotte right now: Yes, Jackson turned the ball over, but it was kind of flukey play, more of a physical mistake than a mental one. go back and watch Frerotte this entire season. He makes terrible, indefensible mistakes every single game. He throws balls into spots that he shouldn't even be looking. When Jackson plays bad, he tends to get sacked a lot and throw a lot of incompletions. But he isn't playing bad right now. He is throw great balls, and running effectively. And one thing is sure: Jackson can make a lot of throws that Frerotte cannot. Fact.

Adrian Peterson needs to either be benched or fined. You cannot be an NFL running back and fumble this much. He is costing the team victories. He is much more at fault in this game than Jackson. Every running back from Pop Warner and up is taught to keep his arms open until the ball is put into his stomach. Peterson couldn't even do that Sunday. He needs to start running like he knows there is a football in his hands. Unacceptable.

Week 15

There are three types of games this week. I've broken them down by how many of the participants are playoff eligible.

Completely Irrelevant:

Cincinnati at Cleveland: This game will be really hard to watch. Two quarterbacks that might never start another NFL game after this season. Bengals 20-16.

San Francisco at St. Louis: There is something sort of endearing about the 49ers since Mike Singletary took over. 49ers 27-21.

New Orleans at Detroit: The Saints are out of it at 7-7. The Lions are out of it for about five more years. Is Calvin Johnson going to be one of those good players that never gets a shot at the title? Kind of like Herman Moore, now that I think about it. Weird. Saints 34-28.

Houston at Oakland: At least the Raiders have a good kick returner. Texans 35-17.

Relevant:

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are bad, but they finally won last week. The Colts keep doing it ugly, but that is OK in December. Colts 28-14.

Miami at Kansas City: The Chiefs are going to make it hard on Miami, but the Dolphins are learning how to weather the storm. Dolphins 17-13.

Buffalo at Denver: Buffalo probably won't even make it hard on Denver. Broncos 31-16.

New York Jets at Seattle: Seneca Wallace can keep the Seahawks in this one. Will Brett Favre keep the Jets in it? Jets 24-17.

Green Bay at Chicago: The Packers crushed Chicago in their first meeting. I think they can do it again. Packers 21-16.

Completely Relevant:

Baltimore at Dallas: If nothing else, being a Ravens fan this year has been extremely tense. They are built to play close games, and they are playing good teams. I think they are going to push Tony Romo around. Ravens 13-10.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee: The Titans are not ready for the type of game Pittsburgh is going to bring. Steelers 20-13.

Arizona at New England: The Patriots have been beatable at home, but I like their defense against the weird Cardinals. Patriots 27-24.

San Diego at Tampa Bay: The Chargers look inspired suddenly, just as Tampa looks uninspired. Toss a coin... Bucs 21-20.

Atlanta at Minnesota: Even without Pat Williams the Vikings front four is pretty stout. I think Tarvaris Jackson and Adrian Peterson will win this game. Vikings 30-20.

Philadelphia at Washington: It won't be easy or pretty. Eagles 30-21.

Carolina at New York Giants: Something tells me the Giants can come out of this slump OK. And Jake Delhomme is not going to be standing around all day in New York. Giants 21-17.

Shuffle the ranks

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: It is impossible to understate how well they have played against a grueling schedule. Suddenly they can steal the number one seed in the AFC from Tennessee.

2. Tennessee Titans: Albert Haynesworth injured? Terrible news for the Titans.

3. New York Giants: I think they will be OK in a couple weeks, but it would be nice if they could figure it out against Carolina, before they blow home-field advantage.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Not a pretty season for the Colts, but they are going to win a playoff game.

5. Carolina Panthers: Running game is incredible right now, and making Jake Delhomme look good again.

6. Baltimore Ravens: Same story as the Steelers, but they aren't quite good enough to get past this schedule.

7. New England Patriots: Probably too high for the Patriots, but I am impressed by how they just keep staying in it.

8. Dallas Cowboys: Have played well three weeks straight against good teams.

9. Philadelphia Eagles: Storming back into the mix.

10. Atlanta Falcons: Nice division win, but they have to win on the road in Minnesota.

11. Minnesota Vikings: They will miss Pat Williams against the Falcons and Michael Turner, but I think the Vikings offense will win this game.

17. Chicago Bears: Tough game this week against the Packers.

25. Green Bay Packers: Oops.

28. Cincinatti Bengals: What a nice win, even if Washington has completely collapsed.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Could they be worse in the 4th quarter?

30. Oakland Raiders: Could they be worse?

31. St. Louis Rams: The Rams could not be worse.

32. Detroit Lions.

Pretty obvious how this would shake out:

ESPN.com: MIN-12, CHI-1, G.B.-25

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-7, CHI-17, G.B.-25

CBS Sports: MIN-8, CHI-16, G.B.-24

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-7, CHI-12, G.B.-15

FOX Sports: MIN-12, CHI-13, G.B.-25

Vinnie Iyer (The Sporting News): MIN-10, CHI-17, G.B.-24

No field goal?

This week didn't have a ton of intriguing  match-ups, but the games sure turned out great. After watching about half the games from this week, I'm wondering a few things:

How does Jeff Fisher not attempt a game-winning 49-yard field goal? Rob Bironas is a pretty solid kicker, and 49 yards should be within any kicker's range, especially inside. And, yes, there would have been two minutes left for Matt Schaub to try to get Houston in range for their own field goal attempt, but aren't the Titans among the league's elite teams because of their defense? A really strange move, one that one wouldn't expect from Jeff Fisher. After the Titans failed to convert on 4th down, Steve Slayton sealed the game on the next play with a 34-yard run.

How did the referees overturn the no-score call on that Santonio Holmes catch? It sure was close, and if any of the ball was ever across the goal line, had Holmes gained possession yet? Considering that the call on the field was no touchdown, how did they see enough to overturn that call? I am baffled, and it may have cost Baltimore a first-round bye.

Speaking of Santonio Holmes, how did the Steelers end up with a huge gain on his muffed punt? And how come every time there is a fumble, Ed Reed recovers it?

How come Randy Moss makes a lot of really nice catches, and nobody says anything about it anymore? For some reason Kevin Harlan kept pointing out whenever Randy Moss made a block for Sammy Morris. But nothing about his great grabs. 

How could the Jets look so good while going up 14-3 on Buffalo, and then need J.P. Losman to make one of the worst plays in this NFL season to win the game? Brett Favre has to stop throwing stupid interceptions. This team might end up making the playoffs, but there will be five other better teams in the AFC playoffs.

Are the Packers really this bad? 

How did Washington and Buffalo look so good earlier? They really are this bad.

Is Tarvaris Jackson playing well enough to keep Gus Frerotte on the bench the rest of the season? I have hard time believing that Brad Childress will be comfortable starting Jackson in a wildcard game if Frerotte is healthy enough to go. Jackson has played pretty well in his two games back, but he hasn't been asked to do much. Today against Arizona he was given a lead and a great performance by his defense. Personally, I don't think Frerotte has been playing that well anyway.

Week 15

New Orleans at Chicago: If it is just cold, the Saints passing game should be OK. Throw in some wetness or snow or wind, different story. Pierre Thomas is clearly the best running back on that team right now. Saints 28-20.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: I like the Bucs to bounce back from that beating they took in Carolina. Yes, Atlanta can run too, but Tampa normally can play the run just fine. Bucs 27-20

Washington at Cincinnati: The Bengals are a nice softy for Washington, who has been struggling lately. Washington 20-7.

Seattle at St. Louis: Two horrible teams. I see Senaca Wallace repeating that nice performance against New England. Seahawks 27-14.

San Francisco at Miami: The 49ers are getting it together, but Miami has done well in close games. Dolphins 17-13

Buffalo at New York Jets: A get-well game for the Jets. The Bills jsut can't stop this free-fall. Jets 30-10.

Detroit at Indianapolis: Calvin Johnson is having a nice year at least. Colts 31-20.

San Diego at Kansas City: I like how the Chiefs have fought all year, but San Diego does OK against lesser teams, not that there are a lot of them out there. Chargers 27-24.

Green Bay at Jacksonville: Possible get-well game for Green Bay, unless they let Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor run wild. Packers 34-28.

Tennessee at Houston: A lot of people are going to predict an upset here, but I'm thinking the Tennessee won't take their foot off the pedal just yet. Titans 24-20.

Minnesota at Arizona: If the Vikings' starting quarterback can hold on to the ball, they should do fine. They'll have to do something creative on defense, because Arizona shouldn't even try to run the ball against them. Vikings 24-21.

Denver at Carolina: I don't like Denver's run defense against anybody, especially Carolina. Panthers 20-13.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Wouldn't it be wild if the Ravens pulled this one out? Unfortunately this is a strength vs strength match-up, the Steelers are better across the board. Steelers 16-9.

New England at Oakland: The Raiders will stay close for a while, but Matt Cassel can put them away. Randy Moss has never played against a former team before. Patriots 24-16.

New York Giants at Dallas: I don't like Tony Romo against a good defense, not when Dallas can't run the ball at all.Giants 28-17.

Cleveland at Philadelphia: Ken Dorsey. Eagles 30-13.

Upsetting Stat, Part II

Oakland 3-10

Seattle 2-11

St. Louis 2-11

Kansas City 2-11

Cincinnati 1-11-1

Detroit 0-13

Last week I brought up these records because it has been a long time since so many teams have had such bad records. My question was: Will 2008 see the most 3 or less-win teams in the history of the NFL (since 1978 really, when the season was expanded to 16 games; also exclude 1982, when only nine games were played). Well, they all lost this week.

Detroit was close to Minnesota the whole way through. Cincinnati and Oakland got destroyed. St. Louis and Seattle played tough against better teams. Kansas City stuck with Denver for a little bit. Aside from Detroit, the other teams can still get out of this gutter. We'll see.