More rankings.

Yet again the  top five are intact. New England drops a few spots, and is replaced at 5 by Washington.

1. Tennessee Titans: This deep into the season, you can't drop the only undefeated team below first.

2. New York Giants: If you were going to drop the Titans, it would be for New York. They dominated the floundering Cowboys, and are head and shoulders above the rest of the best division in the league.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: They have the best back up quarterback in the league, and he came through in a big Monday night win.

4. Carolina Panthers: Playing mostly consistent, looking to come off their bye week and keep the momemtum.

5. Washington: Tough loss to Pittsburgh. Still one of the few six-win teams in the league.

10. Chicago Bears: Found a way to win despite Detroit playing one of its better games. They need to make a few weeks with Rex Grossman at quarterback.

18. Green Bay Packers: Still not convinced by this team, as they seem to play to their opponents level every week. Need Aaron Rodgers to stay healthy.

21. Minnesota Vikings: An even less convincing team, but they played their best game of the season so far.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: They finally finished a game, and get their first win of the year.

29. San Francisco 49ers: Haven't seen enough of this team, but they don't seem to have a lot going for them.

30. Seattle Seahawks: Really bad.

31. Oakland Raiders: Worst team performance of the season on Sunday. By any team in the league, that is.

32. Detroit Lions: Like the Titans, you can't move a team from this spot until they win a game.

The experts stayed about the same this week with their NFC North rankings. Most had Chicago highest, and all had Detroit at 32. Michael Silver has consistently ranked NFC North teams higher than ESPN, CBS, and Jeff Sagarin's computer have. He currently has two division teams in the top 10, and by his average ranking for the Vikings is five spots higher than ESPN's and seven spots higher than CBS's. Interesting?

ESPN.com: CHI-9, G.B.-16, MIN-20, DET-32

Michael Silver(Yahoo!): G.B.-7, CHI-9, MIN-13, DET-32

CBS Sportline: CHI-15, G.B.-16, MIN-19, DET-32

Jeff Sagarin(USA Today): CHI-8, G.B.-14, MIN-14, DET-32

FOX Sports: CHI-7, G.B.-12, MIN-19, DET-32

Where I Went Wrong

In Week 9, I suffered mostly from close games. Teams with the same record beating each other, that sort of thing. The big one was a New York-state divisional battle where Brett Favre proved me right, but the game ended the opposite of my prediction.

The first quarter of the Jets-Bills game in Buffalo must have been a bit frightening for Jets fans. The Bills came out and physically dominated the Jets. The Bills started four possessions in the first quarter, and three of them went for 50+ yard drives, with the opening drive ending in a Derek Fine touchdown. One possession ended in one play when Trent Edwards fumbled. On both sides of the ball the line of scrimmage was completely controlled by Buffalo for the first 22 or so minutes of this game. After racking up over 160 yards and a bunch of first downs, the Bills had just seven points, and had spotted New York 10. 

Edwards' fumble put the Jets on the six yard line, and led to a field goal after Buffalo's defensive spent three plays in the Jets backfield. After driving the Bills all the way down the field, Edwards threw the ball directly to Abram Elam, who took it back 92 yards for a score, putting the Jets up 13-7 after one quarter. The Bills then held the ball for 14 more plays before being stopped on 4th and 1 inside the Jets 10-yard line. After all that, even down only six points, the Bills seemed out of it. 

The Jets, on the other hand, played at an even keel. They played mistake free during the first half, and despite being out matched on 90% of plays, they took advantage when the Bills stumbled, and turned it into a half time lead. In the 4th quarter, after the Bills again wasted a long drive(this time with a Rian Lindell missed field goal), Brett Favre made New York's sole boo-boo of the game. On a play that is almost Favre-trademarked, he threw to a comeback route while being hit, and was picked off. (Peter King, in his weekly power rankings, speaking on Favre's 300th interception,  says Brett didn't appear to care much about the number. Is King lauding the ever-down-to-earth Ironman, or wondering aloud at Favre's indifference to giving away points? Knowing King, I'm guessing the former.) Jabari Greer, who covered the play perfectly, caught the ball and took it to the end zone, making the score 23-17, and giving the Bills hope. The Jets responded with one of their best drives of the season, moving 65 yards in almost nine minutes. Jay Feely capped the drive with a field goal to put them up by nine.

Meanwhile, as I thought might be the case, Jay Cutler threw the ball all over the field against the Miami Dolphins. Unfortunately, his 307 yards were coupled with three interceptions lead to a 26-17 Dolphins win. How can the Broncos manage only 14 yards rushing? Something is wrong with the game plan when that happens. Again, the Dolphins running game was held in check, but they managed to pull out a victory this time.

Lastly, the Colts did in fact upset the Patriots. An upset probably only in the sense that the Pats came in with a better record, but, nonetheless. In the first quarter the Colts looked significantly faster than the Patriots and their aged linebackers. As usual, a Belichick-coached  team managed to calm their opponents fast start. The Colts stayed in the playoff-hunt thanks to some uncharacteristic bone-headed plays by the Pats. Still, the Colts remain one of the more dangerous teams in the league because of Payton Manning. Their passing game can really click, and against a team like the Patriots, that will lead to victories.

Midseason, mediocre

Meaningless categorization of unfounded and unreliable information after eight weeks of NFL football:

Two teams that won't make a playoff splash:

The Tennessee Titans are wonderfully 7-0 for now, but they probably won't end up Super Bowl champs. Jeff Fisher runs a tight ship, and does a good job of bringing a prepared team each Sunday, but at some point they will be challenged. The AFC is not the power house it once was, but it is hard to imagine the Titans carrying this momentum through three more months of football.

Meanwhile, in the NFC there is an equally over achieving squad. Washington has a nice record, and is in the thick of things in the best division in the league. But they have looked shaky more than a couple times, and Jason Campbell has yet to prove himself on a larger stage.

Two teams that might make a playoff ripple:

The Pittsburgh Steelers seem to be, if nothing else, one of the more level-headed teams in the league. They keep getting caught in close games, and even though they lost to New York (N) and Philadelphia, they have played consistent football most of the year. Ben Roethlisberger is a play maker, and can improvise in tough spots, and it doesn't seem to matter who they put in the backfield. Look for them to at least challenge for the AFC title.

In the NFC, things are a little tougher. Carolina, Green Bay and Tampa Bay could all slide into this spot. But Philadelphia has been a bit like the Steelers. They generally bring a solid game, and Donovan McNabb has been there before. If they pressure the quarterback, they are capable of beating any team in the league.

Week 9 game that will disprove all of the above:

This Monday the Steelers will travel to Washington, where they very possibly could be defeated by the stout Washington defense and rush attack. For the sake of this post let's hope the Steelers pull it out.

Most defeated winless team:

Technically, Cincinnati has a worse record than Detroit. They have lost eight games to the Lions 7. But the Lions have done it as only they can. They have been blown out, lost by just two points when Dan Orvlosky stepped out of the back of the end zone against the Vikings, and traded their best player. They did get rid of Matt Millen, but that will do them little good in the next nine weeks.

Most talked-about player most likely to be talked about:

Brett Favre, Brett Favre, Brett Favre.

Most talked-about marginally talented player/Reason nobody should watch ESPN anymore:

Adam Jones. If Matt Murton(who!?) was arguing with his body guard at a bar in Oakland would Peter Gammons have to spend two months outside of the Coliseum? Apparently, just because Pacman has a couple punt returns for touchdowns he is worthy of daily national media attention. Poor ESPN reporters...

Offense that already existed but is being talked about exhaustively:

Wildcat. So the running back takes a direct snap and runs with it... Seen it. about 4,000 high schools run this. It just happened to work a couple times, and win the Miami Dolphins a couple games. La-di-fucking da! That's all I have for that one.

Houston at Minnesota

The 3-4 Houston Texans present an interesting match-up for the Vikings. Minnesota has mostly been playing to their opponents so far: Shootouts with New Orleans and Chicago, nail-biters with Green Bay and Carolina, and a horrific penalty-ridden game against Detroit.

Houston is a tough team to categorize. Their defense is pretty much middle of the road in all areas; they do OK against the pass, are 21st against the run. They do give up points though, as opponents are averaging over 26 a game. On offense, they are on of the best teams at throwing the ball. Andre Johnson is a huge reason for this, as he is basically dominating every defense he faces. Oddly, he leads the league in catches and yards, and has only two touchdowns.

The Vikings will again control the run game on both sides. The Texans have not been impressive against the run, and will have to stack the box if they hope to contain Adrian Peterson. Peterson has been facing eight and nine man fronts all season and is still among the league leaders in rushing, though it has come with more carries than last year. If continues to be patient, and take the four and five yards that are given him, he should have another 100-yard game. It doesn't need to be said that the Vikings have one of the best rush defenses in the league. Kevin and Pat Williams will still be in the line up this week, so expect Houston to go to the air.

Andre Johnson is capable of pretty much anything at the wide receiver position. He can work any part of the field; he is as dangerous in the red zone and on deep balls and he is efficient on slants and mid-range routes. His most impressive skill is his hand strength. In a one-on-one fight for the ball, he is the best receiver in the league. Randy Moss might out-jump you, Terrell Owens might break your tackle, and there are plenty of receivers fast enough to run away from you, but Andre Johnson is another thing. He takes the ball out of defenders hands. He can catch the ball in any body position, and in that sense almost reminds you of Cris Carter. 

The Texans might be able to move the ball on Sunday. The game will come down to red zone efficiency. The Vikings defense, even on bad days, does well in the red zone. A few teams, like the Saints, have put up big yardage games against the Vikings, but haven't really scored much on offense. The Texans will have to score touchdowns when they get into Vikings territory.

The Vikings offense, meanwhile, struggles to score touchdowns themselves. They have moved the ball well in every game this year. They have not translated that to points. They will also need to finish drives. It will be interesting to see if they start to throw some fades down near the goal line. This has not been a popular play for Brad Childress, even though the Vikings have a wonderful history with the play(most notably with Carter and Moss, though even Marcus Robinson was a touchdown machine as a Viking). Sidney Rice is finally healthy and is a great threat in the red-zone. He is tall and can jump, and has demonstrated excellent catching ability in the past.

The next nine games will be interesting at the safety position. Madieu Williams will make his first start as a Viking this week, replacing rookie Tyrell Johnson. If Williams makes the impact expected of his—covering deep balls and using his speed to open up Darren Sharper to move around the secondary more—the Vikings pass defense should improve greatly. Tyrell Johnson has played well so far, but is a rookie, and has made rookie mistakes. He is not ready to be a full-time starter, and has held Sharper back from being able to play his aggressive style. Sharper is at his best when he can take risks and roam the field, a he could beside Leroy Butler and even Dwight Smith. Still, if Williams does prove himself this season, the Vikings will be OK with losing Sharper to free agency at the end of the year. Johnson has shown enough potential to instill confidence that he will thrive playing more of a strong safety role, with Williams behind him.

I expect Minnesota to win on Sunday, with their home crowd behind them. They should be able to control the ball and wear down the Texans defense. If they can pressure Matt Schuab, they might be able to keep Andre Johnson from making a huge impact. 

Steelers, Ravens Face Tough Road to Playoffs

How opportune for the NFC North, to draw the NFC East and AFC South in the same season. Each team in those two division has at least three wins already, and at least three of those teams are among the top five in the league in most power rankings (NY Giants, Tennessee, Washington).

While the Cincinnati Bengals(0-8) are a complete mess, and the Cleveland Browns(3-4) are struggling to stay afloat after a terrible start, both Pittsburgh(5-2) and Baltimore(4-3) have fought their way to winning records through eight weeks. Conventional wisdom at the point would probably tell us that Pittsburgh is the clear favorite; I'm not really going to argue with that, or even try to challenge it at all. The interesting thing about this division is that both the Steelers and Ravens are in the middle of one of the most hellish schedules I can imagine.

Here's where the two stand so far:

Pittsburgh has already played won three divisional games, including one against Baltimore. They also beat a tough Jacksonville team. Their sole losses came against stalwart NFC East opponents: the Ny Giants and Philadelphia. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 4-0 against teams with losing records, and 0-3 against teams with winning records. They lost to Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Indianapolis in consecutive weeks. They do have two divisional wins under their belt.

Here is what they have coming:

Pittsburgh will go on the road to face Washington, New England, and Tennessee, and will host the inconsistent but talented Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers. Their remaining divisional games are at Baltimore and home for Cincinnati and Cleveland. Baltimore will travel to face Cleveland, Houston and the Giants in consecutive weeks. That ridiculous road stretch is followed by one home game, against Philadelphia, and then another road trip, this time for a division rival Cincinnati. Their final four games: Washington, Pittsburgh, at Dallas, home for Jacksonville.

So while Pittsburgh is surely a better team than Baltimore so far, and holds a game lead in the division, it will really come down to how they play against other opponents. And neither team gets a break the rest of the way. Cincinnati isn't a scary foe, but a divisional game in the NFL is different, even against an 0-8 team.

On another schedule topic, the 0-7 Lions have a really good chance to go defeated the rest of the way. Their final nine games feature nine teams with at least three wins. Their four road games all figure to be bad losses: at Chicago, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Green Bay. Their only hopes may be against either the 3-4 Jaguars or the 3-4 Vikings, both games at Ford Field.

Week 9

New York Jets at Buffalo: I have a hunch that Brett Favre is going to throw a few picks. Buffalo does well against lesser teams. Bills 24-17.

Detroit at Chicago: One of these weeks Detroit is going to break out, and surprise(embarrass) somebody. Probably not in Chicago though. Bears 31-10.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati: Jacksonville needs this game, and the Bengals come up at a nice time in the schedule. Jags 24-16.

Baltimore at Cleveland: I have been down on the Ravens quite a bit. I think they will over come the Browns offense and win a third straight game, 20-17.

Green Bay at Tennessee: Been dead wrong about the Packers nearly every week. The Titans look real though. Titans 30-21.

Arizona at St. Louis: Uhhhmm. Rams 34-28?

Houston at Minnesota: The Vikings do best against teams with losing records, which means they will be down in the 4th quarter, and barely win. Vikings 24-23.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City: The Chiefs continue to show flashes, but they just can't complete games. Bucs 27-13.

Miami at Denver: Jay Cutler should be able to move the ball this week, and as long as Miami doesn't rush for 250 yards, the Broncos should be able to out duel them. Broncos 34-27.

Atlanta at Oakland: It will be interesting to see if Matt Ryan has one terrible game this year. Falcons 24-10.

Dallas at New York Giants: Unfortunately, this game is going to come down to Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger, and that means the Cowboys are going to lose. Giants 31-21.

Philadelphia at Seattle: The Seahawks are still terrible, sorry. Eagles 28-13.

New England at Indianapolis: This could either way, since both teams are Jekyll and Hyde. Pats 27-21.

Pittsburgh at Washington: The Steelers schedule is brutal. The only good thing for them is that Baltimore's might be even tougher. Steelers over Washington 20-13.

Blind Rankings

Note: I only saw one game this week, the Chiefs at Jets. Nonetheless:

1. Tennessee Titans: Can't question them anymore. They've passed every test so far, and are already a lock for a playoff spot.

2. New York Giants: In the first match-up of super-powers, the Giants came out ahead.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers held their own, but they could use a back up long-snapper.

4. Carolina Panthers: They've won two in a row(6-2). They also lost to Tampa Bay(5-3), so this division should be interesting right to the end.

5: New England Patriots: There is something to be said about a team going 5-2 with Matt Cassell making his first six starts ever. Or maybe it says something about their coach.

14. Chicago Bears: Bye week, weeeeee.

16. Green Bay Packers: They seem to play to the level of their opponents, so who knows what will happen when they visit Tennessee?

21. Minnesota Vikings: They can't lose Kevin and Pat Williams. It won't hurt to have Madieu Williams back, though

28. Seattle Seahawks: Not impressed with either of their wins so far.

29. San Francisco: Not impressed with them period.

30. Oakland Raiders: Still showing some sparks of talent and potential, at least.

31. Cincinnati Bengals: They'll win a couple this year, I promise.

32. Detroit Lions: They'll lose quite a few more, I promise.

Michael Silver is still high on the NFC North. Nobody has ranked the Lions above 32 in weeks.

ESPN.com:G.B.-11, CHI-12, MIN-23, DET-32

CBS Sportsline: G.B.-9, CHI-16, MIN-25, DET-32

Jeff Sagarin(USA Today): CHI-8, G.B.13-, MIN-15, DET-32

Michael Silver(Yahoo!):G.B.-8, CHI-10, MIN-17, DET-32

FOX Sports: CHI-8, G.B.-14, MIN-23, DET-32