I decided it is time to follow up on these random, poorly considered predictions. I even made a color-code. Red means I was flat wrong, orange means I got the winner, but the score was a bit off, and green means I was mostly right. With Week 5 complete, I have six out of 14 in the green and four more orange. The four red doesn't look very good.
Prediction: Bills 23 Browns 16
Reality: Browns 6 Bills 3
I figured the Bills would be able to score. They didn't. Another special teams blunder finally sunk them, but with or without it, this was an awful day.
Prediction: Cowboys 27 Chiefs 13
Reality: Cowboys 26 Chiefs 20 OT
This game was a little closer than expected, though I didn't see the Chiefs taking it into overtime. The Cowboys have to be a little worried about how difficult it has been to get to 3-2. Side note: The Chiefs helmets were really cool. Apparently, that was the first time they have worn anything but their normal helmets since the mid-1970s. Wow.
Prediction: Vikings 30 Rams 24
Reality: 38-10
I underestimated how bad the Rams could be. They moved the ball fairly easily, but committed three turnovers in the red zone. the Vikings got a lot of breaks in this game; it could have been a lot closer.
Prediction: Giants 27 Raiders 14
Reality: Giants 44-7
OK, I didn't get the full blowout correct. I figured that with Eli Manning playing hurt the Giants would scale it back a little. Wrong.
Prediction: Eagles 38 Buccaneers 17
Reality: Eagles 33 Buccaneers 14
This one went almost exactly as expected. Can't give myself much credit, I think everybody got this one right.
Prediction: Steeler 31 Lions 24
Reality: Steelers 28 Lions 20
The Lions offense can move the ball, and they've proved that every game so far. Unfortunately, when they needed a big play, Daunte Culpepper was sacked three plays in a row.
Prediction: Panthers 19 Washington 13
Reality: Panthers 20 Washington 17
To nobody's surprise, this was an ugly game. No stats really pop out, but once again Jason Campbell can't get the win.
Prediction: Ravens 24 Bengals 14
Reality: Bengals 17 Ravens 14
The Bengals are good. Cedric Benson is having a very good season. The Ravens are reeling a little, but Minnesota should expect a real fight next week.
Prediction: 49ers 17 Falcons 7
Reality: Falcons 45 49ers 10
Probably my worst pick of the week. I was completely wrong about the 49ers defense. They gave up a bunch of big plays, and the rest of the team kept coughing up the ball.
Prediction: Seahawks 24 Jaguars 20
Reality: Seahawks 41 Jaguars 0
It turns out that the Jaguars went very quietly. What a difference Matt Hasselbeck makes. None of the running backs had a big day, but the committee produced a nice game.
Prediction: Cardinals 34 Texans 28
Reality: Cardinals 28 Texans 21.
After jumping out to a 21-0 lead, the Cardinals needed an interception for a touchdown and a goal line stand with under a minute to pull this off. Both offenses did their part, but Matt Schaub made the error that cost the Texans.
Prediction: Patriots 20 Broncos 6
Reality: Broncos 20 Patriots 17 OT
This one looked good at halftime, with the Pats leading 17-7. Then the Broncos shut them out in the second half and Kyle Orton completed a lot (35 for the game) passes. Yep, they're for real.
Prediction: Colts 27 Titans 13
Reality: Colts 31 Titans 9
I'm leaving this one in the orangecategory simply because I really didn't think it would be a blow out. I thought the Titans would keep it close into the 4th quarter before the Colts closed the door.
Prediction: Dolphins 16 Jets 13
Reality: Dolphins 31 Jets 27
A half hour before the game started, I was listening to Cris Carter go on about how the Jets would stop the Wildcat and how Rex Ryan proved he had a scheme for it last year, when the Ravens crushed the Dolphins in the opening round of the playoffs. Well, he was wrong. The Dolphins are the only team so far who has consistently moved the ball against the Jets, and they did it, surprise, with the Wildcat. If Chad Henne continues to build on what he has done in his first two starts, the Dolphins may have the most promising young quarterback in the league.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Week 5
Cleveland at Buffalo
The Bills have to win this week to hold on to any hope. At home against the Browns, they should be OK. Marshawn Lynch didn't look excellent, but he adds another threat to the Bills offense. Bills 23 Browns 16
Dallas at Kansas City: One of this year's AFL 50th Anniversary games. The Chiefs will be wearing throwback uniforms from when they were the...Dallas Texans. Aside from the fact that the Cowboys, who apparently will be wearing their regular get-up, were never in the AFL (not to mentioned that the Chiefs will be playing a home game with the state of Texas on their heads--against the Dallas Cowboys), I think these throwback games are pretty cool. I guess Tony Romo will play OK. Cowboys 27 Chiefs 13.
Minnesota at St. Louis
No team in the last ten years has been worse at taking care of bad teams than the Vikings. Many think this is a prime spot for the Vikings to collapse (Michael Silver among them, scroll down). I don't think the Vikings will crush the Rams, as they should, but they will win. Vikings 30 Rams 24.
Oakland at NY Giants
I really don't think Eli Manning should play in this game. A few reasons: the inflamed tissue in his right foot; the Giants 4-0 record; the site of the game; the fact that the Raiders are awful. Give him some time off. Let that foot heal a little. Beat the Raiders by ten instead of 20. OK, fine, so no win is guaranteed in the NFL. I don't care, sit him. Giants 27 Raiders 14.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
With or without Donovan McNabb, this should be a rout. Eagles 38 Buccaneers 17.
Pittsburgh at Detroit
Despite the Chargers 4th quarter comeback, Pittsburgh Sunday night win was pretty impressive. I actually think Daunte Culpepper can make some plays for the Lions, but I don't think they can win this game. Steeler 31 Lions 24.
Washington at Carolina
As bad as Carolina has played, what a great sight it must be to see Washington in town. Unless Jason Campbell plays like Mark Rypien, Washington is never a safe pick. Panthers 19 Washington 13.
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Maybe the best game of the week, especially if you like defense. Cincinnati did a good job against Gren Bay and Pittsburgh, but the Ravens (weird) bring a more balanced attack on offense. In this match up of strength vs. strength, I think all of Baltimore's strengths are stronger than Cincinnati's. Ravens 24 Bengals 14.
Atlanta at San Francisco
Atlanta is an interesting team. They are balanced on offense, and seem to come to play every single week. But San Francisco's defense will shut them down, and I don't think there is a reliable Plan B in Atlanta. 49ers 17 Falcons 7.
Jacksonville at Seattle
Matt Hasselbeck pretty much has to play this week. If Seattle falls to 1-4...well, we know what that means. Jacksonville is 2-2 (somehow), and won't go quietly. Seahawks 24 Jaguars 20.
Houston at Arizona
Which offense will take advantage of which defense? Maybe both, but, at home, the Cardinals contained the Colts for a little while, and they should move the ball fairly easily against Houston's defense. Cardinals 34 Texans 28.
New England at Denver
This another AFL Anniversary game. The Patriots will wear the road version of the 'Pat Patriot' uniforms we saw on Monday Night Football in Week 1. The Broncos will wear these. I think, like most, that the Broncos magical ride will begin a slow and painful descent this week. Patriots 20 Broncos 6.
Indianapolis at Tennessee
This was supposed to be a compelling game, because the Titans weren't supposed to be 0-4. It could still be a good game, if the Tennessee defense can get things straight. Colts 27 Titans 13.
NY Jets at Miami
The other Jets-Dolphins game will feature the AFL throwbacks, so I guess this one is just about football. I'm not sold on the Dolphins being out of it yet. If their wildcat and run-oriented offense can offset some of the Jets blitzing success, they might out score the inconsistent Jets offense. Dolphins 16 Jets 13.
The Bills have to win this week to hold on to any hope. At home against the Browns, they should be OK. Marshawn Lynch didn't look excellent, but he adds another threat to the Bills offense. Bills 23 Browns 16
Dallas at Kansas City: One of this year's AFL 50th Anniversary games. The Chiefs will be wearing throwback uniforms from when they were the...Dallas Texans. Aside from the fact that the Cowboys, who apparently will be wearing their regular get-up, were never in the AFL (not to mentioned that the Chiefs will be playing a home game with the state of Texas on their heads--against the Dallas Cowboys), I think these throwback games are pretty cool. I guess Tony Romo will play OK. Cowboys 27 Chiefs 13.
Minnesota at St. Louis
No team in the last ten years has been worse at taking care of bad teams than the Vikings. Many think this is a prime spot for the Vikings to collapse (Michael Silver among them, scroll down). I don't think the Vikings will crush the Rams, as they should, but they will win. Vikings 30 Rams 24.
Oakland at NY Giants
I really don't think Eli Manning should play in this game. A few reasons: the inflamed tissue in his right foot; the Giants 4-0 record; the site of the game; the fact that the Raiders are awful. Give him some time off. Let that foot heal a little. Beat the Raiders by ten instead of 20. OK, fine, so no win is guaranteed in the NFL. I don't care, sit him. Giants 27 Raiders 14.
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
With or without Donovan McNabb, this should be a rout. Eagles 38 Buccaneers 17.
Pittsburgh at Detroit
Despite the Chargers 4th quarter comeback, Pittsburgh Sunday night win was pretty impressive. I actually think Daunte Culpepper can make some plays for the Lions, but I don't think they can win this game. Steeler 31 Lions 24.
Washington at Carolina
As bad as Carolina has played, what a great sight it must be to see Washington in town. Unless Jason Campbell plays like Mark Rypien, Washington is never a safe pick. Panthers 19 Washington 13.
Cincinnati at Baltimore
Maybe the best game of the week, especially if you like defense. Cincinnati did a good job against Gren Bay and Pittsburgh, but the Ravens (weird) bring a more balanced attack on offense. In this match up of strength vs. strength, I think all of Baltimore's strengths are stronger than Cincinnati's. Ravens 24 Bengals 14.
Atlanta at San Francisco
Atlanta is an interesting team. They are balanced on offense, and seem to come to play every single week. But San Francisco's defense will shut them down, and I don't think there is a reliable Plan B in Atlanta. 49ers 17 Falcons 7.
Jacksonville at Seattle
Matt Hasselbeck pretty much has to play this week. If Seattle falls to 1-4...well, we know what that means. Jacksonville is 2-2 (somehow), and won't go quietly. Seahawks 24 Jaguars 20.
Houston at Arizona
Which offense will take advantage of which defense? Maybe both, but, at home, the Cardinals contained the Colts for a little while, and they should move the ball fairly easily against Houston's defense. Cardinals 34 Texans 28.
New England at Denver
This another AFL Anniversary game. The Patriots will wear the road version of the 'Pat Patriot' uniforms we saw on Monday Night Football in Week 1. The Broncos will wear these. I think, like most, that the Broncos magical ride will begin a slow and painful descent this week. Patriots 20 Broncos 6.
Indianapolis at Tennessee
This was supposed to be a compelling game, because the Titans weren't supposed to be 0-4. It could still be a good game, if the Tennessee defense can get things straight. Colts 27 Titans 13.
NY Jets at Miami
The other Jets-Dolphins game will feature the AFL throwbacks, so I guess this one is just about football. I'm not sold on the Dolphins being out of it yet. If their wildcat and run-oriented offense can offset some of the Jets blitzing success, they might out score the inconsistent Jets offense. Dolphins 16 Jets 13.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Week 4 Rankings
1. New York Giants: I always like to give good teams credit for really crushing bad teams. It is so horrible when they don't, I feel like the Giants should get at least a nod for dominating the Buccaneers and Chiefs so thoroughly.
2. Indianapolis: The Colts offense is scary.
3. Minnesota: The Vikings didn't play their best defensive game, but they made so many big plays that the Packers offense looked a lot worse than the numbers show.
4. New Orleans: The Saints have shown they can way all different ways: With huge offense in Weeks 1 and 2, with stifling defense against Buffalo, and with defensive touchdowns against the Jets.
5. New England: Yeah, they're still pretty good. Watch out AFC East.
6. Baltimore: The Ravens won't lose many this season.
7. New York Jets: Their defense is outrageous right now. I'm not sure anybody could have success against them, maybe not even the Colts.
8. Philadelphia: Donovan McNabb should settle things down in Philly, if he stays healthy.
9. San Francisco: That was one dominating performance for San Francisco. Shaun Hill refuses to make mistakes.
10. Atlanta: The Falcons still have a lot to prove.
11. Denver: How did this defense get so much better. Sure, they have played an easy schedule, but they are dominating.
12. Cincinnati: Not pretty, but you have to like where the Bengals are sitting right now (tied for first place)
13. Pittsburgh: A horrible 4th quarter, but a lot of be encouraged by.
14. San Diego: A valiant comeback, but, really, Pittsburgh crushed them.
15. Chicago: They gave up a lot of points, but they are proving to be a big-play threat.
16. Green Bay: What happened to running the ball?
17. Dallas: What happened to running the ball?
18. Houston: Houston is still that team that can only win against bad opponents.
19. Arizona: The bye week was their best yet.
20. Miami: The Dolphins moved the ball very easily against the Bills. 1-3 is not enough to give up on Miami just yet.
21. Jacksonville: 2-2? Whatever works.
22. Washington: Jason Campbell trading interceptions for wins? I guess he is trying something new.
23. Buffalo: Terrell Owens is having no effect; partially because he drops a lot of passes, and partially because Trent Edwards is really struggling. It looks like Edwards still has good chemistry with Lee Evans though.
24. Seattle: Without Matt Hasselbeck, they are simply not very good.
25. Carolina: They didn't get a chance to lose this week.
26. Detroit: Calvin Johnson can be unstoppable at times, and is reason alone why no team should look forward to playing the Lions.
27. Tennessee: I suppose it is time to see what Vince Young can do, but the 2009 season is already lost
28. Oakland: Again, JaMarcus Russell is not a good quarterback right now.
29. Tampa Bay: If anybody can make you look not so bad, it is Washington.
30. Kansas City: They are over matched in almost every game they play.
31. Cleveland: They got within seven seconds of their first...non-loss. Better luck next time!
32. St. Louis
2. Indianapolis: The Colts offense is scary.
3. Minnesota: The Vikings didn't play their best defensive game, but they made so many big plays that the Packers offense looked a lot worse than the numbers show.
4. New Orleans: The Saints have shown they can way all different ways: With huge offense in Weeks 1 and 2, with stifling defense against Buffalo, and with defensive touchdowns against the Jets.
5. New England: Yeah, they're still pretty good. Watch out AFC East.
6. Baltimore: The Ravens won't lose many this season.
7. New York Jets: Their defense is outrageous right now. I'm not sure anybody could have success against them, maybe not even the Colts.
8. Philadelphia: Donovan McNabb should settle things down in Philly, if he stays healthy.
9. San Francisco: That was one dominating performance for San Francisco. Shaun Hill refuses to make mistakes.
10. Atlanta: The Falcons still have a lot to prove.
11. Denver: How did this defense get so much better. Sure, they have played an easy schedule, but they are dominating.
12. Cincinnati: Not pretty, but you have to like where the Bengals are sitting right now (tied for first place)
13. Pittsburgh: A horrible 4th quarter, but a lot of be encouraged by.
14. San Diego: A valiant comeback, but, really, Pittsburgh crushed them.
15. Chicago: They gave up a lot of points, but they are proving to be a big-play threat.
16. Green Bay: What happened to running the ball?
17. Dallas: What happened to running the ball?
18. Houston: Houston is still that team that can only win against bad opponents.
19. Arizona: The bye week was their best yet.
20. Miami: The Dolphins moved the ball very easily against the Bills. 1-3 is not enough to give up on Miami just yet.
21. Jacksonville: 2-2? Whatever works.
22. Washington: Jason Campbell trading interceptions for wins? I guess he is trying something new.
23. Buffalo: Terrell Owens is having no effect; partially because he drops a lot of passes, and partially because Trent Edwards is really struggling. It looks like Edwards still has good chemistry with Lee Evans though.
24. Seattle: Without Matt Hasselbeck, they are simply not very good.
25. Carolina: They didn't get a chance to lose this week.
26. Detroit: Calvin Johnson can be unstoppable at times, and is reason alone why no team should look forward to playing the Lions.
27. Tennessee: I suppose it is time to see what Vince Young can do, but the 2009 season is already lost
28. Oakland: Again, JaMarcus Russell is not a good quarterback right now.
29. Tampa Bay: If anybody can make you look not so bad, it is Washington.
30. Kansas City: They are over matched in almost every game they play.
31. Cleveland: They got within seven seconds of their first...non-loss. Better luck next time!
32. St. Louis
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Predicting Week 4
Why are there bye weeks already in Week 4? They shouldn't start until at least Week 6.
Detroit at Chicago
With a win and a Packers loss, the Lions could be tied for second place in the NFC North at the end of Week 4. That would still be last place in the division, but how great would that feel for a team that has been dead last since...what feels like forever. If the Bears on-and-off run defense is off this week, the Lions might win this one. I like Jay Cutler to keep the turnovers down and have another solid 4th quarter. Bears 20 Lions 15.
Cincinnati at Cleveland
The Bengals defense is looking tough, and the Browns are awful. Derek Anderson is back under center, but that won't be enough. Bengals 20 Browns 6.
Seattle at Indianapolis
The Seahawks have a strange advantage over many NFL teams. Because Matt Hasselbeck has missed so many games the last couple years, Seneca Wallace has played a lot. They are one of the few teams that isn't doomed when the second quarterback has to start. Still, the Colts are home are almost a lock against a team like Seattle, Hasselbeck or not. Colts 31 Seahawks 20.
NY Giants at Kansas City
The Giants dominated an awful Tampa Bay team last week, and should follow the same script in Kansas City. If they do, they'll win easy. Remember Larry Johnson? Giants 28 Chiefs 13
Baltimore at New England
Baltimore is playing the best football of any team in the NFL. New England has sneeked away from three so-so games with a 2-1 record. This one will probably come down to whether Joe Flacco is successful throwing the ball; I don't think Flacco will be successful throwing the ball. Patriots 20 Ravens 17.
Tampa Bay at Washington
This is one ugly matchup. Tampa Bay is arguably the worst team in the league, and Washington plays like they can't wait for games to be over. Washington 17 Buccaneers 9.
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Tennessee absolutely has to win this week. That alone doesn't mean they will. Kerry Collins need to go back managing games--and doing it well--before Tennessee can turn this season around. Titans 30 Jaguars 17.
Oakland at Houston
Houston as been all over the place through three weeks. The Raiders have mostly just been bad. I'll assume that Matt Schaub will have a decent game. Texans 24 Raiders 10.
NY Jets at New Orleans
This is a huge game for two 3-0 teams. The Jets will have to "prove it" all season long; nobody is going to give them the benefit of the doubt with a rookie quarterback. If Drew Brees can beat the blitz, this will get ugly. The Saints defense is good enough to keep the Jets offense in check. Saints 28 Jets 16.
Buffalo at Miami
Chad Henne strikes fear into the hearts of nobody. Buffalo's pass rush has been very good, and now they will have two very good running backs to help Trent Edwards. Bills 27 Dolphins 20.
St. Louis at San Francisco
The 49ers are going to be talked about a lot in the next few seasons. They will likely take over the "team that is just a quarterback away." I like their run defense, I like their secondary, and obviously Patrick Willis is amazing. This is used to be a great rivalry, but it has been too long since both reams were relevant at the same time. 49ers 21 Rams 7.
Dallas at Denver
Denver may be a mirage right now, but Dallas can't be counted on for anything. Sure, their Monday night victory over Carolina was nice, but we can't be too quick to forget their Sunday night loss to the Giants in Week 2. Dallas tends to drift back towards that Week 2 team, the one that can score a lot, but not when they need to, and gives up way too many yards and points. If they keep running like they have been, maybe they can smooth out the wild inconsistency. Cowboys 31 Broncos 21.
San Diego at Pittsburgh
It's official. Losing Troy Polamalu was huge. With a defense as good as they've been, one wouldn't think they would lose games with Polamalu out. The Chargers might be better than I give them credit for. We'll see. Chargers 27 Steelers 17.
Green Bay at Minnesota
Forget all the Favre crap. This would have been a big either way. The Vikings have a chance to go to 4-0 and 2-0 against the NFC North. If the Packers 3-4 is effective against Adrian Peterson, they will win. Vikings 30 Packers 27.
Detroit at Chicago
With a win and a Packers loss, the Lions could be tied for second place in the NFC North at the end of Week 4. That would still be last place in the division, but how great would that feel for a team that has been dead last since...what feels like forever. If the Bears on-and-off run defense is off this week, the Lions might win this one. I like Jay Cutler to keep the turnovers down and have another solid 4th quarter. Bears 20 Lions 15.
Cincinnati at Cleveland
The Bengals defense is looking tough, and the Browns are awful. Derek Anderson is back under center, but that won't be enough. Bengals 20 Browns 6.
Seattle at Indianapolis
The Seahawks have a strange advantage over many NFL teams. Because Matt Hasselbeck has missed so many games the last couple years, Seneca Wallace has played a lot. They are one of the few teams that isn't doomed when the second quarterback has to start. Still, the Colts are home are almost a lock against a team like Seattle, Hasselbeck or not. Colts 31 Seahawks 20.
NY Giants at Kansas City
The Giants dominated an awful Tampa Bay team last week, and should follow the same script in Kansas City. If they do, they'll win easy. Remember Larry Johnson? Giants 28 Chiefs 13
Baltimore at New England
Baltimore is playing the best football of any team in the NFL. New England has sneeked away from three so-so games with a 2-1 record. This one will probably come down to whether Joe Flacco is successful throwing the ball; I don't think Flacco will be successful throwing the ball. Patriots 20 Ravens 17.
Tampa Bay at Washington
This is one ugly matchup. Tampa Bay is arguably the worst team in the league, and Washington plays like they can't wait for games to be over. Washington 17 Buccaneers 9.
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Tennessee absolutely has to win this week. That alone doesn't mean they will. Kerry Collins need to go back managing games--and doing it well--before Tennessee can turn this season around. Titans 30 Jaguars 17.
Oakland at Houston
Houston as been all over the place through three weeks. The Raiders have mostly just been bad. I'll assume that Matt Schaub will have a decent game. Texans 24 Raiders 10.
NY Jets at New Orleans
This is a huge game for two 3-0 teams. The Jets will have to "prove it" all season long; nobody is going to give them the benefit of the doubt with a rookie quarterback. If Drew Brees can beat the blitz, this will get ugly. The Saints defense is good enough to keep the Jets offense in check. Saints 28 Jets 16.
Buffalo at Miami
Chad Henne strikes fear into the hearts of nobody. Buffalo's pass rush has been very good, and now they will have two very good running backs to help Trent Edwards. Bills 27 Dolphins 20.
St. Louis at San Francisco
The 49ers are going to be talked about a lot in the next few seasons. They will likely take over the "team that is just a quarterback away." I like their run defense, I like their secondary, and obviously Patrick Willis is amazing. This is used to be a great rivalry, but it has been too long since both reams were relevant at the same time. 49ers 21 Rams 7.
Dallas at Denver
Denver may be a mirage right now, but Dallas can't be counted on for anything. Sure, their Monday night victory over Carolina was nice, but we can't be too quick to forget their Sunday night loss to the Giants in Week 2. Dallas tends to drift back towards that Week 2 team, the one that can score a lot, but not when they need to, and gives up way too many yards and points. If they keep running like they have been, maybe they can smooth out the wild inconsistency. Cowboys 31 Broncos 21.
San Diego at Pittsburgh
It's official. Losing Troy Polamalu was huge. With a defense as good as they've been, one wouldn't think they would lose games with Polamalu out. The Chargers might be better than I give them credit for. We'll see. Chargers 27 Steelers 17.
Green Bay at Minnesota
Forget all the Favre crap. This would have been a big either way. The Vikings have a chance to go to 4-0 and 2-0 against the NFC North. If the Packers 3-4 is effective against Adrian Peterson, they will win. Vikings 30 Packers 27.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Week 3 Power Rankings
1. Baltimore: The Ravens are suddenly a scoring machine, on offense. The defense may not be as nasty as we are used to, but it doesn't matter so far.
2. New York Giants: The Giants are 2-0 in the NFC East and dominated the Buccaneers this week.
3. Indianapolis: With Payton Manning around, the Colts can beat anybody.
4. Minnesota: It looks like the run defense will be OK, but is it really possible that Minnesota hasn't fixed their special teams problems?
5. New York Jets: Mark Sanchez is doing better than anybody could have expected, but their defense is driving them.
6. New Orleans: Nine passing touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 2, and zero against the Bills in Week 3. The 27-7 win was not as impressive as the score, but 3-0 is 3-0.
7. Philadelphia: Apparently Philadelphia is the big play team this year. Kevin Kolb is filling in nicely for Donovan McNabb.
8. San Francisco: The 49ers defense will keep them in contention all season, and Shaun Hill is exactly the game manager they need right now.
9. New England: We saw that old will to win again this week at home against Atlanta. Tom Brady is still working himself back to form.
10. Atlanta: There were a couple of bad breaks for the Falcons in New England, but they didn't look like an elite team last week. They are close though.
11. San Diego: For as inconsistent as the Chargers can be, overall they look solid.
12. Denver: The Broncos have the number 1 defense in the NFL. Unbelievable.
13. Cincinnati: The Bengals defense is really tough. Add a competent quarterback and Cedric Benson to the fold, and you have a contender.
14. Dallas: The Cowboys lead the league in rushing. That's probably the best way to keep Tony Romo from messing things up.
15. Green Bay: The Packers are an interesting mix of good and bad. They throw as good as anybody, and can't run. They force a lot of turnovers on defense, and give up a lot of yards. So far the good is outweighing the bad.
16. Chicago: Jay Cutler has settled in a little, but is tied for second-most turnovers in the league with six.
17. Pittsburgh: Super Bowl hangover, or whatever.
18. Arizona: Maybe a worse Super Bowl hangover. Kurt Warner got beat up last week.
19. Seattle: Luckily for the Seahawks, uniforms don't count in the standings. Seneca Wallace is a solid back-up, but they are better off when he is on the sideline.
20. Buffalo: Terrell Owens is doing nothing. At all. Trent Edwards has to play better for the Bills to win.
21. Jacksonville: Who knows what to think about the Jags? The 'team-most-likely-to-be-contracted' wins a big division game to pull to 1-2.
22. Houston: It turns out that the Texans do not have it figured out this season.
23. Tennessee: The Titans are better than their 0-3 record, and I wouldn't write them off yet. Almost, but not yet.
24. Miami: Like Tennessee, they are better than their 0-3 record. But now Chad Pennington is out for the year (maybe forever), and Tyler Thigpen could be starting in a few weeks. Maybe next year...
25. Carolina: Tempted to put Carolina even lower, but they could still win a few games this year, if Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith stop sabotaging them.
26. Detroit: They are in the 20s! The Lions run the ball pretty well, and if they beat Chicago this week, who knows where the 2009 season could go! ...er...
27. Washington: Jason Campbell might not ever figure it out, though he had a whole lot of yards in Detroit.
28. Oakland: JaMarcus Russell is not going to be a good quarterback for the Raiders. Probably not for anybody.
29. Kansas City: I'm not sure when it is going to get any better for the Chiefs.
30. St. Louis: With Kyle Boller, the Rams actually staged a mini-comeback, getting with in a touchdown of Green Bay after falling behind 16-0 early. That count's as a 'sign of life' for this team.
31. Tampa Bay: The Bucs didn't get a first down until the 3rd quarter, and at one point in the 4th they had 30 net yards. Those are numbers that are usually found in high school football games.
32. Cleveland: This year's Browns may be worse than the 1999 expansion team.
2. New York Giants: The Giants are 2-0 in the NFC East and dominated the Buccaneers this week.
3. Indianapolis: With Payton Manning around, the Colts can beat anybody.
4. Minnesota: It looks like the run defense will be OK, but is it really possible that Minnesota hasn't fixed their special teams problems?
5. New York Jets: Mark Sanchez is doing better than anybody could have expected, but their defense is driving them.
6. New Orleans: Nine passing touchdowns in Weeks 1 and 2, and zero against the Bills in Week 3. The 27-7 win was not as impressive as the score, but 3-0 is 3-0.
7. Philadelphia: Apparently Philadelphia is the big play team this year. Kevin Kolb is filling in nicely for Donovan McNabb.
8. San Francisco: The 49ers defense will keep them in contention all season, and Shaun Hill is exactly the game manager they need right now.
9. New England: We saw that old will to win again this week at home against Atlanta. Tom Brady is still working himself back to form.
10. Atlanta: There were a couple of bad breaks for the Falcons in New England, but they didn't look like an elite team last week. They are close though.
11. San Diego: For as inconsistent as the Chargers can be, overall they look solid.
12. Denver: The Broncos have the number 1 defense in the NFL. Unbelievable.
13. Cincinnati: The Bengals defense is really tough. Add a competent quarterback and Cedric Benson to the fold, and you have a contender.
14. Dallas: The Cowboys lead the league in rushing. That's probably the best way to keep Tony Romo from messing things up.
15. Green Bay: The Packers are an interesting mix of good and bad. They throw as good as anybody, and can't run. They force a lot of turnovers on defense, and give up a lot of yards. So far the good is outweighing the bad.
16. Chicago: Jay Cutler has settled in a little, but is tied for second-most turnovers in the league with six.
17. Pittsburgh: Super Bowl hangover, or whatever.
18. Arizona: Maybe a worse Super Bowl hangover. Kurt Warner got beat up last week.
19. Seattle: Luckily for the Seahawks, uniforms don't count in the standings. Seneca Wallace is a solid back-up, but they are better off when he is on the sideline.
20. Buffalo: Terrell Owens is doing nothing. At all. Trent Edwards has to play better for the Bills to win.
21. Jacksonville: Who knows what to think about the Jags? The 'team-most-likely-to-be-contracted' wins a big division game to pull to 1-2.
22. Houston: It turns out that the Texans do not have it figured out this season.
23. Tennessee: The Titans are better than their 0-3 record, and I wouldn't write them off yet. Almost, but not yet.
24. Miami: Like Tennessee, they are better than their 0-3 record. But now Chad Pennington is out for the year (maybe forever), and Tyler Thigpen could be starting in a few weeks. Maybe next year...
25. Carolina: Tempted to put Carolina even lower, but they could still win a few games this year, if Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith stop sabotaging them.
26. Detroit: They are in the 20s! The Lions run the ball pretty well, and if they beat Chicago this week, who knows where the 2009 season could go! ...er...
27. Washington: Jason Campbell might not ever figure it out, though he had a whole lot of yards in Detroit.
28. Oakland: JaMarcus Russell is not going to be a good quarterback for the Raiders. Probably not for anybody.
29. Kansas City: I'm not sure when it is going to get any better for the Chiefs.
30. St. Louis: With Kyle Boller, the Rams actually staged a mini-comeback, getting with in a touchdown of Green Bay after falling behind 16-0 early. That count's as a 'sign of life' for this team.
31. Tampa Bay: The Bucs didn't get a first down until the 3rd quarter, and at one point in the 4th they had 30 net yards. Those are numbers that are usually found in high school football games.
32. Cleveland: This year's Browns may be worse than the 1999 expansion team.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Week 2 "Rankings"
This early in the season rankings just don't work. It is near-impossible attach a meaningful number in front of every team. So, I copped out and put them into equally meaningless categories.
These teams really should make the playoffs:
Atlanta: A pretty solid team all around, they don't have to lean to heavily on any part of the team. If they continue to hold serve, I like them to finish with double-digit wins.
Baltimore: Baltimore suddenly is not just a defensive team. They have score 38 and 31 so far, and the defense is just fine.
Indianapolis: The Colts are still pretty good. The offense will never get completely shut down this year.
New Orleans: Right now they are following that old super-offense path: Score an outrageous amount of points, and give your defense free rein to take a lot of chances with a lead.
New York Giants: Eli Manning may not be pretty, but he does a bit of his brother's winning streak in him. The Giants are still solid across the board, and it is hard to imagine them not at least grabbing a wildcard spot, even this early in the season.
I'll believe it when their 12-4 and hosting a playoff game, but until then...
Minnesota: It's still not clear if Brett Favre can make plays downfield. And where has that vaunted run defense been so far?
New York Jets: Is Mark Sanchez going to go down the Matt Ryan path this season? What happens when he falters?
Pittsburgh: Hard to believe that they lost to the Bears.
New England: Why are they passing so much? Until Tom Brady starts throwing more accurately, they are definitely beatable.
San Francisco: What will they do when somebody finally slows down Frank Gore? I'm not sure they have a passing game that get them to the playoffs.
Philadelphia: The longer McNabb is out, the further they get from the top of the NFC East.
Need Work:
Arizona: Kurt Warner had an amazing day against the Jaguars, but the Cardinals are still the same old from what we can tell so far.
Buffalo: The Bills defense looks good so far, especially against the run. The Saints will test them, but not many defenses are going to stop the Saints this year. The true test will be whether Trent Edwards and the offense has success against the so-so Saints defense.
Chicago: Jay Cutler has shown his two main traits: He can lose a game by himself, and win a game by himself.
Cincinnati:The Bengals defense is good, but it might need to be great to get this team into the playoffs.
Dallas: The Cowboys responded well to most of what they saw from the Giants this week, but Tony Romo has to be smarter with the ball, and that will be the deciding factor for Dallas this year.
Green Bay: Scoring on defense is great, but it doesn't do much good when you can't stop the run and give up 31 points. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is getting hit, a lot.
Houston: Well, the offense isn't dead after all. The defense needs to play better against the run, but the Texans could still challenge the Colts this year.
San Diego: Inconsistency is their calling card.
Seattle: Without Matt Hasselbeck... well, they are not very good.
Tennessee: 0-2 already, and probably not thrilled to see that the Colts are still pretty good.
Teams that probably won't hang around past November, but aren't finished yet:
Carolina: An 0-2 start looks a lot worse when New Orleans and Atlanta are already 2-0 (one win against the Panthers). The worst part is that the Panthers don't really match up well with either of those teams, and could get swept by both.
Denver: The 2-0 start is nice, and San Diego doesn't look all that scary, but the Broncos will have to play a couple of good teams, and Oakland and Kansas City aren't pushovers for Denver anymore.
Miami: 0-2 in the AFC East is almost a deathknell. The Dolphins will have to do very well in their division schedule to catch up.
Oakland: JaMarcus Russell isn't very good.
Washington: They just can't seem to play full games, and sometimes the simplest things go awry.
Teams that I'm pretty sure are already finished:
Cleveland: No offense, no defense. Their return team is pretty good though.
Detroit: I have tried not to say anything about the Lions for a while now, but they are finally improving. Kevin Jones is a solid running back and their defense is a little better.
Jacksonville: The Jaguars can't throw the ball enough to make their offense a even a small threat, and their defense isn't that good either.
Kansas City: The Chiefs are still a long ways off. They just don't have the players right now.
St. Louis: Worst team in the NFL.
Tampa Bay: The Bucs defense is actually not horrible. Byron Leftwich probably won't start this entire season.
These teams really should make the playoffs:
Atlanta: A pretty solid team all around, they don't have to lean to heavily on any part of the team. If they continue to hold serve, I like them to finish with double-digit wins.
Baltimore: Baltimore suddenly is not just a defensive team. They have score 38 and 31 so far, and the defense is just fine.
Indianapolis: The Colts are still pretty good. The offense will never get completely shut down this year.
New Orleans: Right now they are following that old super-offense path: Score an outrageous amount of points, and give your defense free rein to take a lot of chances with a lead.
New York Giants: Eli Manning may not be pretty, but he does a bit of his brother's winning streak in him. The Giants are still solid across the board, and it is hard to imagine them not at least grabbing a wildcard spot, even this early in the season.
I'll believe it when their 12-4 and hosting a playoff game, but until then...
Minnesota: It's still not clear if Brett Favre can make plays downfield. And where has that vaunted run defense been so far?
New York Jets: Is Mark Sanchez going to go down the Matt Ryan path this season? What happens when he falters?
Pittsburgh: Hard to believe that they lost to the Bears.
New England: Why are they passing so much? Until Tom Brady starts throwing more accurately, they are definitely beatable.
San Francisco: What will they do when somebody finally slows down Frank Gore? I'm not sure they have a passing game that get them to the playoffs.
Philadelphia: The longer McNabb is out, the further they get from the top of the NFC East.
Need Work:
Arizona: Kurt Warner had an amazing day against the Jaguars, but the Cardinals are still the same old from what we can tell so far.
Buffalo: The Bills defense looks good so far, especially against the run. The Saints will test them, but not many defenses are going to stop the Saints this year. The true test will be whether Trent Edwards and the offense has success against the so-so Saints defense.
Chicago: Jay Cutler has shown his two main traits: He can lose a game by himself, and win a game by himself.
Cincinnati:The Bengals defense is good, but it might need to be great to get this team into the playoffs.
Dallas: The Cowboys responded well to most of what they saw from the Giants this week, but Tony Romo has to be smarter with the ball, and that will be the deciding factor for Dallas this year.
Green Bay: Scoring on defense is great, but it doesn't do much good when you can't stop the run and give up 31 points. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is getting hit, a lot.
Houston: Well, the offense isn't dead after all. The defense needs to play better against the run, but the Texans could still challenge the Colts this year.
San Diego: Inconsistency is their calling card.
Seattle: Without Matt Hasselbeck... well, they are not very good.
Tennessee: 0-2 already, and probably not thrilled to see that the Colts are still pretty good.
Teams that probably won't hang around past November, but aren't finished yet:
Carolina: An 0-2 start looks a lot worse when New Orleans and Atlanta are already 2-0 (one win against the Panthers). The worst part is that the Panthers don't really match up well with either of those teams, and could get swept by both.
Denver: The 2-0 start is nice, and San Diego doesn't look all that scary, but the Broncos will have to play a couple of good teams, and Oakland and Kansas City aren't pushovers for Denver anymore.
Miami: 0-2 in the AFC East is almost a deathknell. The Dolphins will have to do very well in their division schedule to catch up.
Oakland: JaMarcus Russell isn't very good.
Washington: They just can't seem to play full games, and sometimes the simplest things go awry.
Teams that I'm pretty sure are already finished:
Cleveland: No offense, no defense. Their return team is pretty good though.
Detroit: I have tried not to say anything about the Lions for a while now, but they are finally improving. Kevin Jones is a solid running back and their defense is a little better.
Jacksonville: The Jaguars can't throw the ball enough to make their offense a even a small threat, and their defense isn't that good either.
Kansas City: The Chiefs are still a long ways off. They just don't have the players right now.
St. Louis: Worst team in the NFL.
Tampa Bay: The Bucs defense is actually not horrible. Byron Leftwich probably won't start this entire season.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Rankings: Week 2
1. Pittsburgh: The Steelers defense still looks strong, and even without Troy Polamalu they are the best team in the league right now.
2. New York Giants: It is pretty difficult to rank the next few teams. The Giants still have a lot to prove, but they played very good defense at home against Washington.
3. Philadelphia: They will probably be better off if Jeff Garcia plays sooner than later, but no matter who the quarterback is, they can't rely on turnovers every game.
4. Baltimore: The Chiefs made a habit out of challenging teams all of last season, but the Ravens shouldn't being giving up 24 points to that team.
5. New England: Not the best performance by the Patriots last night, and they were beyond lucky to even come away with a win. Still, Brady mostly looked good, and Moss and Welker were very big. The defense will need to step up against the run.
6. Atlanta: Having all offseason to prepare for Miami probably helped them shut down the wildcat. The Falcons are a real threat in the NFC, at least so far.
7. Minnesota: Brett Favre played like a 2000 Trent Dilfer and Adrian Peterson dominated the Browns. A winning formula against lesser teams, but the Vikings will need to throw the ball downfield at some point.
8. Dallas: Plenty of big plays. Again, we need to see how Dallas fares against better teams.
9. Green Bay: The Packers were given a lot of gifts by Jay Cutler, but they looked good on defense, and Aaron Rodgers is just getting warmed up.
10. Indianapolis: Many think the Colts should have easily disposed of Jacksonville, but don't forget that this is a divisional game and that the Jaguars usually play their hardest against Payton Manning.
11. New Orleans: They'll score a lot of points this season, but they'll also give up way too many.
12. Seattle: Thorough domination of the Rams.
13. San Francisco: Mike Singletary has the right idea so far, and the 49ers won a huge Week 1 game.
14. San Diego: They looked like the same flat, disappointing team that we saw for most of 2008.
15. Tennessee: At 0-1 I can't put them higher yet, even though their defense is still pretty good without Albert Haynesworth.
16. Carolina: Jake Delhomme needs to go. But I've been saying that for a year now.
17. Miami: They'll be OK, but Atlanta made their wildcard offense look silly.
18. Chicago: Brian Urlacher will be missed, but the big problem is whether Jay Cutler will settle down.
19. New York Jets: Their defense dominated what is supposed to be a pretty good offense in Houston. Mark Sanchez just needs to limit mistakes, and he will get off to a nice start.
20. Buffalo: The offensive line actually held their own, and Trent Edwards played mistake-free. Basically, the only thing the Bills did wrong in New England was fumble a kickoff.
21. Arizona: I can't imagine many are shocked by this. The Cardinals maybe need to pretend these are playoff games.
22. Houston: Can the Texans dig themselves out of this hole? They better start this week in Nashville.
23. Washington: Jason Campbell just can't seem to break out and make plays. If he doesn't start, Washington has no chance in 2009.
24. Denver: Lucky does not fully describe it, but you can't fault a team that is in a position to make that play. Could be a rare win this season, but it's nice to be 1-0.
25. Cincinnati: Lucky or not, the Broncos were within a point with under a minute, so it's not like the Bengals ran away with it. At least they aren't the worst team in their division.
26. Jacksonville: No passing game, but they will make it hard on teams this year.
27. Kansas City: Impressive fight, hopefully they win a few of these close games this year. They need Matt Cassell soon.
28. Tampa Bay: If they lose at Buffalo this week, they might as well start planning for Josh Freeman's debut.
29. Oakland: Even though they could have beat San Diego, I don't know that they showed a lot of potential for future success. Nice to see JaMarcus Russell make some plays, even if he is running only part of the playbook still, after three years.
30. Cleveland: No passing game, no run defense. Josh Cribbs can't score every game, and even if he does, the Browns will still lose by double-digits.
31. St. Louis: Pitiful, but until the Lions break that losing streak...
32. Detroit
2. New York Giants: It is pretty difficult to rank the next few teams. The Giants still have a lot to prove, but they played very good defense at home against Washington.
3. Philadelphia: They will probably be better off if Jeff Garcia plays sooner than later, but no matter who the quarterback is, they can't rely on turnovers every game.
4. Baltimore: The Chiefs made a habit out of challenging teams all of last season, but the Ravens shouldn't being giving up 24 points to that team.
5. New England: Not the best performance by the Patriots last night, and they were beyond lucky to even come away with a win. Still, Brady mostly looked good, and Moss and Welker were very big. The defense will need to step up against the run.
6. Atlanta: Having all offseason to prepare for Miami probably helped them shut down the wildcat. The Falcons are a real threat in the NFC, at least so far.
7. Minnesota: Brett Favre played like a 2000 Trent Dilfer and Adrian Peterson dominated the Browns. A winning formula against lesser teams, but the Vikings will need to throw the ball downfield at some point.
8. Dallas: Plenty of big plays. Again, we need to see how Dallas fares against better teams.
9. Green Bay: The Packers were given a lot of gifts by Jay Cutler, but they looked good on defense, and Aaron Rodgers is just getting warmed up.
10. Indianapolis: Many think the Colts should have easily disposed of Jacksonville, but don't forget that this is a divisional game and that the Jaguars usually play their hardest against Payton Manning.
11. New Orleans: They'll score a lot of points this season, but they'll also give up way too many.
12. Seattle: Thorough domination of the Rams.
13. San Francisco: Mike Singletary has the right idea so far, and the 49ers won a huge Week 1 game.
14. San Diego: They looked like the same flat, disappointing team that we saw for most of 2008.
15. Tennessee: At 0-1 I can't put them higher yet, even though their defense is still pretty good without Albert Haynesworth.
16. Carolina: Jake Delhomme needs to go. But I've been saying that for a year now.
17. Miami: They'll be OK, but Atlanta made their wildcard offense look silly.
18. Chicago: Brian Urlacher will be missed, but the big problem is whether Jay Cutler will settle down.
19. New York Jets: Their defense dominated what is supposed to be a pretty good offense in Houston. Mark Sanchez just needs to limit mistakes, and he will get off to a nice start.
20. Buffalo: The offensive line actually held their own, and Trent Edwards played mistake-free. Basically, the only thing the Bills did wrong in New England was fumble a kickoff.
21. Arizona: I can't imagine many are shocked by this. The Cardinals maybe need to pretend these are playoff games.
22. Houston: Can the Texans dig themselves out of this hole? They better start this week in Nashville.
23. Washington: Jason Campbell just can't seem to break out and make plays. If he doesn't start, Washington has no chance in 2009.
24. Denver: Lucky does not fully describe it, but you can't fault a team that is in a position to make that play. Could be a rare win this season, but it's nice to be 1-0.
25. Cincinnati: Lucky or not, the Broncos were within a point with under a minute, so it's not like the Bengals ran away with it. At least they aren't the worst team in their division.
26. Jacksonville: No passing game, but they will make it hard on teams this year.
27. Kansas City: Impressive fight, hopefully they win a few of these close games this year. They need Matt Cassell soon.
28. Tampa Bay: If they lose at Buffalo this week, they might as well start planning for Josh Freeman's debut.
29. Oakland: Even though they could have beat San Diego, I don't know that they showed a lot of potential for future success. Nice to see JaMarcus Russell make some plays, even if he is running only part of the playbook still, after three years.
30. Cleveland: No passing game, no run defense. Josh Cribbs can't score every game, and even if he does, the Browns will still lose by double-digits.
31. St. Louis: Pitiful, but until the Lions break that losing streak...
32. Detroit
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