Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Todd Snider, Peace Queer, Mega Force

Another review on countrymusicgoodness.com: Todd Snider's Peace Queer was released today.

Rankings

After Week 6 there is further proof that the NFL has turned into a mush of mediocre teams. Whether they are mediocre relative to each other or the NFL of 10, 20, or 30 years ago, I'm not sure. But there sure aren't any clear cut favorites so far, and only a couple teams are out of it.

1. Tennessee Titans: The bye week was good to a couple teams. The Titans should go into their Monday Night Football match up with Indianapolis 6-0.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers: Three of my top five teams had byes this week. Shows how quickly things change.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Very impressive win, even if I think the Panthers have been overrated so far.
4. New York Giants: Not a good loss, but the Giants still are in control of a tough division.
5. Buffalo Bills: At five for now, but they could have a losing record a month from now. Next four games: SD, at MIA, NY Jets, at NE.

18. Chicago Bears: The Bears could open a nice NFC North lead if they can take care of Minnesota and Detroit at home in their next two games (with a bye sandwiched between).
19. Minnesota Vikings: A win is a win in this league. They are right there in the middle of things, with some big divisional games coming up.
20. Green Bay Packers: Good job taking care of a lesser team. That is something that shouldn't be taken for granted in the NFL.

28. Oakland Raiders: The Saints needed a win, and they took out some frustration on the Raiders
29. Seattle Seahawks: Hard to imagine things getting much better for this team.
30. St. Louis Rams: Good win, but I'm not moving them up yet. I still remember their September.
31. Cincinnati Bengals: They look pretty good for an 0-6 team, but they still are 0-6.
32. Detroit Lions: Score was close, which is a step in the right direction. But they only gained 212 yards, and couldn't maintain drives.

The Experts:
ESPN.com: G.B.-19, CHI-20, MIN-21, DET-32
CBS Sportsline: G.B.-16, CHI-21, MIN-22, DET-32
Michael Silver (Yahoo!): G.B.-14, MIN-15, CHI-16, DET-32
Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): CHI-8, MIN-18, G.B.-22, DET-32

Monday, October 13, 2008

Darius Rucker “Learn To Live” Capitol/EMI

Check out my review of Darius Rucker's new album, Learn to Live, on countrymusicgoodness.com.

Again, let us not forget the final score

For the second straight week, the Minnesota Vikings won an incredibly ugly game. After turning the ball over three times and have a field goal blocked in the 4th quarter, Minnesota snuck past Detroit on a Ryan Longwell field goal, 12-10.

Typically, the media is writing this win off. The Vikings are not a popular team this year. They were predicted to be one of the better teams in the league, and have shown that, more or less, they are just another middle-of-pack group. ESPN.com's headline for the game said the game was won on a questionable call, while the same site's Last Call claimed the Vikings were outplayed for a second straight week.

If you read my post last week concerning the Saints-Vikings Monday Night Football match up, you understand that I don't really buy that the Saints "outplayed" the Vikings. And this week, I feel even stronger that the Vikings were not outplayed. Although the Lions definitely showed up on Sunday, the Vikings basically dominated most of the game, stopping now and then to hand over the ball or fail on a scoring chance. Please refer to the game's box score for the bulk of the substantiation for my argument. Note that the Lions had eight first downs and only 212 total yards. And, yes, most of it came on one play, but Frerotte did throw for 296 yards.

On a positive note, Minnesota's defense continues to look like one of the best in the league. Kevin Williams had one of the most incredible individual performances by a defender in recent memory. Four sacks from the tackle position? Unreal. David Herron filled in admirably for E.J. Henderson (when he wasn't limping off the field), but there does seem to be a difference in the rush defense since the middle backer went out. With Henderson on the field, outside runs were getting strung out, and E.J. was tackling runners behind the line of scrimmage. With Herron, the same plays are being strung out, and the runner is gaining two or three yards. Most teams would love to have that "problem." Nonetheless, it is a credit to Henderson to note that he was a huge part of why teams struggle so much to run against Minnesota.

Watch any NFL game and notice that some of the most frustrating plays for a defense are 3rd down conversations. And notice, also, that a lot of conversions come on dump offs to running backs. Five or six years ago the Vikings defense gave up an infuriating number of first downs this way. Today, I have no qualms saying the Vikings are the best team in the league at containing running backs catching the ball out of the backfield. It may seem an unsubstantial angle on the game, but these plays keep drives alive and sometimes pick up huge chunks of yardage. But the Vikings linebackers are so quick, and the defensive backs such able tacklers, that even in short yardage situations, teams have no guarantees against this defense.

The Vikings probably should not feel great after this win, but they should feel great about being 3-3. The reality of the situation is that no matter how ugly it was, the outcome was a victory, and they can only look forward to next week. I expect both Minnesota and Chicago to show up next Sunday, and for the first time in almost a month, the Vikings to eliminate the sloppy plays that are weighing them down.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Completely Uninformed Peak at Week 6

Another week full of tough games. It seems likely that there will be a lot of upsets and a lot of teams with winning records losing this week. 

Chicago at Atlanta: I like Atlanta's run game here, especially on the turf. Kyle Orton might continue his run of good quarterbacking this week, but Atlanta will score too much, and win 30-20.

Baltimore at Indianapolis: Baltimore looks pretty good, and their defense is crazy good, but they are old. They can't finish games. Indianapolis 23-13.

Detroit at Minnesota: Detroit is due for "sneak-up-on-you" game, but Minnesota has some momentum and might actually be able to run past Detroit's version of eight men in the box. Vikings 27-13.

Oakland at New Orleans: The Saints need to bounce back from that Monday night heartbreaker, and even though the Raiders are talented and were playing well before Lane Kiffin was fired, New Orleans should be able to put a win together, 34-17.

Cincinnati at NY Jets: Another barnburner for the Jets, and although the Bengals have played tough, Favre still has some 4th quarter magic in him. Jets 41-35.

Carolina at Tampa Bay: Could be the best game of the week, especially for fans of defense. Carolina is getting a lot of props, but the Bucs seem like a nicely balanced team. Bucs 20-16.

St. Louis at Washington: Washington should be able to keep the intensity up at least this week against the awful Rams, 24-7.

Miami at Houston: The Texans are tough to gauge, as they have played hard in all four losses. Dolphins 24-10.

Jacksonville at Denver: Denver's offense could rip Jacksonville's secondary, but the Jaguars seem to have a knack for coming through in must-win situations (at least in the regular season). Jags 31-27.

Dallas at Arizona: Ignore all the crap about Dallas you heard this week. Kurt Warner will turn the ball over three times this week. Cowboys 31-17.

Philadelphia at San Francisco: I don't trust the 49ers, and I always like desperate teams. Eagles 35-10.

Green Bay at Seattle: Green Bay loses even when Rodgers has strong games. Seattle has injuries everywhere. Flip a coin: Seahawks 20-17.

New England at San Diego: I rarely pick against the Patriots, but San Diego has a quarterback. Chargers 24-21.

NY Giants at Cleveland: Giants stay undefeated, 31-24.

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

The Vikings Won, by the way

In the 24 hours since Minnesota topped New Orleans 30-27, the national and local (Minnesota) media have agreed on one thing: The Saints gave this one away. Consensus seems to be that the Vikings watched some freak show of blocked field goals and punt returns go on around them, then stepped in with 15 second left so Ryan Longwell could come in and boot the game-winning field goal.

Well, I see it a little differently. Although the Saints did blow a 4th quarter lead, how did they even get to that point? Let's not forget that before Reggie Bush returned two punts for touchdowns, the Vikings had a 20-10 lead and the game had essentially turned into back-and-forth punts. The Saints had a couple of nice drives in the first half, but only turned two into scores, a 47-yard drive that resulted in a touchdown to open the game, and 34-yard possession that ended in a long field goal. 

The Saints only drive in the game that went for more than 55 yards was a 12-play, 75-yard drive that ended with an interception. What the Saints offense did was put up a bunch of numbers: 320 yards total, 15 first downs, and they won time of possession by 5 minutes. Guess what? It means nothing. 

Stats are important in professional sports. They are how we measure teams and players and their performances. But if you can't recognize that the Vikings defense did what they had to do to win this game, which, yes, included taking advantage of mistakes by the Saints, you are blind. The Saints certainly gave the Vikings a lot of chances in this game—turnovers and penalties, namely—and the Vikings took advantage of pretty much every single one. A blocked field goal turned into a touchdown after a penalty and a dropped pass. A pass interference turned into the game-winning field goal. 

Go watch all 14 NFL games next weekend. What you will see are a bunch of near-interceptions, near catches, near drops, near fumbles, etc. On Monday night, the Vikings just happened to do an incredible job of capitalizing on all of these. Ben Leber scooped up a bobbled ball, Antoine Winfield caught a blocked punt in mid-air.

Also, let's talk about Jared Allen. People are disappointed because he has no numbers. Well, if you watched the Vikings defense in 2006 and 2007, you know a couple things: Overall, it was pretty good; its pass defense got exploited a lot; it never pressured the quarterback. And if you did watch those two teams it should be pretty obvious that this year's defense is a lot better than those two. And Jared Allen is a huge part of that. Drew Brees was not on the ground that much. But he was in the eye of a storm last night. 

The Vikings defensive line has not been great at all times this year, but they cause a hell of a lot of chaos. There are people everywhere when the ball gets snapped, and quarterbacks are getting hurried and hit. We all would like to see more sacks, but there is no denying that the line is as disruptive as it has been in decades.

So, for those who like stats, I'll throw you a bone. In Week 3, the Carolina Panthers had 45 yards of offense in the second half, punting three times and never scoring. In Week 4, the Tennessee Titans gained 67 yards in seven possessions in the second half, hitting a field goal on a 33-yard drive, and moving 6 yards for a touchdown after a Gus Frerotte interception. New Orleans did manage 99 yards in the second half Monday night, most of that coming on one pass. 

In those three games the Vikings have held their opponent scoreless in 14 of 17 second half possessions, with the average scoring drive moving less than 18 yards. To me, that adds up to some stellar second half defense (and bad field position), right when it is needed. And it's not like the defense has put the team behind in those games. Tied 10-10 against Carolina at half, down 20-10 against Tennessee, and up 20-10 Monday in New Orleans.

To wrap it up, don't tell me the Vikings didn't have a part in winning this game, and how about a little credit to the Vikings defense, which is playing a lot better than the "numbers" might indicate.

Rank Me

1. New York Giants: Domination is the word that comes to mind. Seattle isn't great, but that is quite the big win.
2. Tennessee Titans: They probably should have lost against Baltimore, but 5-0 teams find a way to win, and they did that.
3. Washington Redskins: Four straight wins against some pretty good teams.
4. Dallas Cowboys: 4-1 is 4-1, no matter what others' expectations were for this team.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers: Carolina is getting a lot of attention, but the Steelers look pretty complete.

11. Chicago Bears: Doing things right, and winning. Let's see how they do against some better teams.
17. Minnesota Vikings: Defense has had some incredible second halves, Gus Frerotte is doing enough.
20. Green Bay Packers: We've seen them play too well to write them off after three straigh losses.

28. Cleveland Browns: Bye week is nice.
29. Cincinnati Bengals: Some really gritty, tough losses.
30. Houston Texans: Winless teams find ways to lose.
31. Detroit Lions: Terrible.
32. St. Louis Rams: They still look bad, even with a bye.

The Experts:
ESPN.com: CHI-10, MIN-19, G.B.-21, DET-31
CBS Sports Line: CHI-12, MIN-17, G.B.-18, DET-31
Michael Silver (Yahoo!): CHI-10, MIN-16, G.B.- 21, DET-31
Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): CHI-10, MIN-17, G.B.-21, DET-31
FoxSports.com: CHI-10, G.B.-21, MIN-22, DET-32