Final Regular Season Ranks

1. New York Giants: They lost, and I moved them up. what gives? Seeing them up close made me realize how dominant their offensive line is, and Steve Spagnuolo has some pretty nice blitz packages. I'm guessing it will come down to a game at the Meadowlands against Carolina.

2. Tennessee Titans: Baltimore could make things tough on the Titans come round two. But I think the Colts would beat them.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Leftwich probably could win a couple playoff games with this team. Steelers fans should probably hope he stays on the bench though.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Nine wins in a row is nothing to scoff at. I think they will challenge either Pittsburgh or Tennessee in the second round, and if they get through there, might be Super.

5. Baltimore Ravens: Here's hoping we get to see Baltimore play Miami, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Talk about some old-school football.

6. Carolina Panthers: Will anybody be able to stop DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith in the playoffs?

7. Miami Dolphins: They just keep on winning. Their defense deserves a lot of credit. How valuable is Ricky Williams? Because of him the Dolphins go into the playoffs with two relatively fresh running backs.

8. New England Patriots: By far the best team to miss the playoffs, probably playing as well as anybody right now. Matt Cassel appears to be the real deal, and if reports that Tom Brady's recovery is going slowly are correct, New England might have to throw Cassel a fat one-year deal.

9. Atlanta Falcons: Not the way you would like to handle the Rams at home going into the playoffs, but they should beat the Cardinals in round one.

10. Minnesota Vikings: Granted, it was against some of the Giants back-ups. But the Vikings made a pretty nice 4th-quarter comeback Sunday, and clinched the NFC North.

11. Philadelphia Eagles: They have played a lot better in December, but this big win over Dallas isn't enough to wash that performance against Washington out of my memory.

12. San Diego Chargers: I guess you have to give them credit for fighting and getting back into the mix. They still aren't that good.

13. Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo and Brett Favre looked a lot alike in the last few weeks. And they both cost their teams a shot at the playoffs.

14. Arizona Cardinals: Maybe the most one-dimensional team in the NFL. Probably won't win a playoff game.

15. Houston Texans: I like Matt Schuab and Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the league. Steve Slaton looks to be their running back for a few years also. If they can improve on defense, they will be a contender next year. (Yes, everybody said the exact same thing last year. It's true.)

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs were one of the more balanced teams for a lot of this season, but the run defense wore down, and Jeff Garcia couldn't stay healthy. I think they will challenge the NFC South again next season.

17. Chicago Bears: The Bears defense was simply terrible. They are the biggest reason this team missed the playoffs. And, really, the only really they even hung around was because of some weird special teams plays.

18. Denver Broncos: Their defense was awful all year, and it didn't come through Sunday night.

19. New York Jets: At 8-3 they were on the fast track to an AFC East title and maybe even a first-round bye. Then all of their weaknesses got exposed, over and over. Brett Favre needs to retire. The Jets should look at what Aaron Rodgers did, and hope that Clemens can be the man by 2010.

20. New Orleans: Aside from some individual performances, the Saints were a big disappointment.

21. San Francisco 49ers: Mike Singletary got this team to play with some guts in the second half of the season. I think they are a better team than most people know.

22. Washington: They need more from the quarterback position.

23. Buffalo Bills: Overachieved for a little while, but came down to Earth hard. Will have to start finishing drives before they can be taken seriously. 

24. Oakland Raiders: A pretty solid defense, a quarterback who is almost ready to step up and be the man, and a couple good running backs. 8-8 next year?

25. Green Bay Packers: They had some of the same problems last year, but Brett Favre helped hide them. I don't think he would have made much difference this year.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars: Somewhere along the line this team completely lost focus, and despite a couple nice efforts at the end of the year, I would be worried about them were I a fan.

27. Cincinnati Bengals: If they had played as hard as a unit with Carson Palmer, they might have stayed relevant for a little while. 

28. Seattle Seahawks: I might buy the injury argument with this team, but with everybody healthy could they have accounted for even half of their 12 losses? Doubtful.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: This team is so young. They took a lot of lumps this year. Hopefully Tony Gonzalez gets a chance somewhere else next year, because he can still play.

30. Cleveland Browns: I am really shocked by how bad the Browns are. Last year was a fluke, apparently.

31. St. Louis Rams: I feel like St. Louis has a couple nice pieces. Marc Bulger probably needs to be on a good team to be an elite quarterback. This team has a long way to go.

32. Detroit Lions: I don't know that there is anything to say about the Lions.

NFC North Champions

Ready for the Worst

I arrived in New York much like one starting over would arrive anywhere new; I had a suitcase and an address in my hands, and was having trouble deciding which streets went north and south. I was as excited as I was apprehensive, as sure as I was unsure. Manhattan is somewhere around 1,100 miles away from the Twin Cities, and the difference goes beyond geographical.

If you can believe it, the Vikings play at 1 p.m. here—maybe obvious to those with a basic understanding of time zones and Minnesota’s geographical relation to New York. Sadly, the time difference (however indistinguishable from the team’s vantage) appears to have little bearing on their play. Every fall Sunday in New York the streets are spotted haphazardly with the colors of jerseys from teams across the country. The Bengals, the Eagles, the Cardinals—you name it. In the West Village there is a bar owned by a Packer fan, a place where those beer-swilling, foamed-headed fans gather each week (although, certainly a person whose blood runs as purple as this writers’ would have no reason to further investigate said establishment.)

And what of us Vikings followers? Those downtrodden, cynical, forever-on-the-verge-of-giving-up fans that hardly make it out of their tree stands most Sunday afternoons? It is no overstatement: purple and gold jerseys are few and far between east of the St. Croix. After finding a suitably empty bar in North Brooklyn, I bunkered down each week on a stool in the corner, ready to watch the Minnesota Vikings alone in the largest city in this country.

To my surprise, that scene was broken by the arrival of some other dislocated Midwesterners. First, it was, most unfortunately, a Packer fan. A Milwaukee native and University of Minnesota grad, this Packer fan at least had the courtesy to ignore me. But each week the Viking fans showed their faces at that odd 1 p.m. start time. In flannel jackets no less, one even sporting camouflage hunting pants. One day I turned to find Craig Finn, that Twins-loving, rock band-fronting singer from the Hold Steady. Here, I thought, is a slice of home, Minneapolis on a bar stool beside me.

He had more to say about Minnesota’s professional baseball team—and, in fairness, they had just completed a whirlwind week, sweeping the rival White Sox before squandering a spot at the playoffs—than the purple ones. And the Twins are a decidedly more pleasant topic placed beside a Vikings-Lions game in October. Our Twins are the underdogs that never quit, a collection of no-names that can’t stop winning. Facing very realistic bad expectations, they came out of the first season post-Torii Hunter just one game out of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the 0-4 Lions were beating our other state representatives.

That difference is a little hard to come to terms with. On one hand, the Twins are everything that is right with the sport of baseball; they are a small-market team that always overachieves; they draft well, they use their farm system well, and they have one of the most traditional and fundamental-leaning coaches in the majors in Ron Gardenhire. We love their players. We love Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and we loved Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have recently been cast as a group of delinquents. Drugs, boats, fights—though it is hard to imagine them landing a punch, if their quarterbacks are any indicator of their collective accuracy. Ownership ponies-up huge contracts to players who may or may not actually return that investment. And they lose. They lose in the most painful ways possible. They fumble, they give up ridiculous touchdowns to punt returners, twice in one game (OK—so they won that game. But still!). Their head coach so closely resembles a former sitcom character (think military father figure), that one sometimes is ready to forgive his bad challenges and dubious play-calling; if only he really were Major Dad. At least we would know that it was a failed experiment, a PR-ploy, anything but reality.

The now Vikings find themselves poised on the brink of the playoffs, one victory away from a home wildcard game. To make it worse, they don’t even have to win to get in; if Chicago loses its last game the Vikings can back in to the 2008 NFL playoffs. The Vikings have lost some unfathomable number of potential playoff-clinching games in the last five or six years, including last week at home against Atlanta, and could buttress their reputation as perennial choke-artists this week with a loss. Let’s just say that an entire fan base is more than prepared for that unbearable result.

As for the fans, rest assured, the old saying is true: You can take the Viking fan out of Minnesota, but you can’t take Minnesota out of the Viking fan. I’ll be right there with the rest of them, every Sunday, that rag-tag bunch that call themselves Vikings fans (not publicly, if we can avoid it). We’ll be the ones shaking our heads for three hours, asking “What was that?” every other play.

Week 17

No Playoff Implications:

Kansas City (2-13) at Cincinnati (3-11-1): Here are two teams that probably should have three or four more wins. They held leads in most of their losses, especially the Chiefs, who seem to blow a 4th quarter lead every week. I think Kansas City will have the advantage in this battle of awful. Chiefs 31-27.

Detroit (0-15) at Green Bay (5-10): Is anybody completely shocked by the Lions record? Maybe in the context of an NFL season in the age of parity, yes, but the Lions really are this bad. Their defense seems incapable of improving from year to year. The Packers record doesn't surprise me all that much either, and I'm not sure Brett Favre would have taken this team to the playoffs. Packers 17-13.

Washington (8-7) at San Francisco (6-9): Imagine it is 1987. Joe Gibbs is bringing his Washington team into San Francisco to take on Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, and Jerry Rice. That might be the only way to tolerate this game. Then again, it might be a nice hard-nosed, smash-mouth type of game. Washington 13-9.

Seattle (4-11) at Arizona (8-7): Seattle has probably played better than their record the whole year. Little consolation for their fans, I'm sure. I think the Cardinals are reeling a little bit right now. They are so one-dimensional, it can't be a surprise to see them drop to 8-7. I like Seattle in this game. Seahawks 24-17.

Cleveland (4-11) at Pittsburgh (11-4): The Steelers failed to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That is OK for them. They have proven themselves at home and on the road all season long. A rematch in Nashville should be more frightening for the Titans. Meanwhile, the Browns keep going through quarterbacks, now going with Bruce Gradkowski. Steelers 20-10.

Tennessee (13-2) at Indianapolis (11-4): Obviously there are games with playoff-bound teams. But this one, and the previous two, are games where neither team can change their post season seed. Who knows what either of these teams will do in this game? It could be a preview of a playoff game, but not a very telling one. Colts 24-16.

One Fights, Another Spoils:

St. Louis (2-13) at Atlanta (10-5): St. Louis can't knock Atlanta out of the playoffs, but they can make them go on the road in round one. Falcons 35-14.

New England (10-5) at Buffalo (7-8): A lost season for the Bills. They have a chance to make it the same for New England (even though Tom Brady's injury is the real reason for that). The Patriots are playing really well right now, and if Miami loses, I like the Pats to challenge either Pittsburgh or Tennessee in the second round. Patriots 30-17.

Carolina (11-4) at New Orleans (8-7): Drew Brees isn't going to need any motivation this week. He is a gamer. Carolina could drop from the 2 seed to the 5. That should scare them into a win. Panthers 21-14.

Oakland (4-11) at Tampa Bay (9-6): Oakland hasn't played two good games consecutively in years. Tampa Bay hasn't played any good games in a while. Still, at home, with the playoffs on the line, I like the Bucs. Bucs 20-17.

Chicago (9-6) at Houston (7-8): The biggest question here is whether Houston will continue to experiment with players and plays. Last week against Oakland they did a lot of new things, and lost. The Bears don't appear to be playing all that desperate, but they have been playing bad teams. I think Houston will throw for 350 yards. Texans 31-24.

Jacksonville (5-10) at Baltimore (10-5): I pleasantly surprised by Jacksonville's slight turn around here at the end of a forgettable season. With coaches like Jack Del Rio and Mike Tice, it should be expected. They played pretty tough against Indianapolis. Baltimore's defense will torture them this week. Ravens 23-10.

New York Giants (12-3) at Minnesota (9-6): The Giants have nothing to play for. The Vikings need to win this game to get into the playoffs, save Brad Childress' job, and at least somewhat put off that choke reputation of theirs. I think New York will start pulling people in the 3rd quarter. Vikings 27-21.

The Big Ones:

Miami (10-5) at New York Jets (9-6): As much as the Jets seem to be throwing this year away (ahem, Favre), playing at home against Miami is ideal for them. This should be low scoring, and as long as Favre doesn't have to throw the ball with under four minutes in the game, they should win. Jets 24-20.

Dallas (9-6) at Philadelphia (8-6-1): Three months ago these teams looked pretty good. Now they are both going to be done a week from now, if not sooner. I guess I like the Eagles in this game, mostly because Tony Romo is going to throw the ball away a few times. Eagles 27-23.

Denver (8-7) at San Diego (7-8): What a cruel joke. A head-to-head match-up in Week 17, with both teams fighting for the same playoff spot. Why a joke? Because they are 15-15 combined, and the winner almost surely will lose to Indianapolis in the playoffs. This game will be tense and exciting, but ultimately, it is a match-up of the two worst teams still in playoff contention. Broncos 34-31.

Late Rankings

1. Tennessee Titans: Didn't see that coming. Their defense might be able to carry them.

2. New York Giants: Way to snap back into it in time to save home-field advantage. Now they will probably rest for the Vikings.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: I'll give them a break. With this schedule, you are going to lose on the road a couple times.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Win, win, win.

5. Baltimore Ravens: Huge win over Dallas, the kind that should get them a ton of respect. 

6. Carolina Panthers: I don't see this team going far in the playoffs.

7. New England Patriots: They look pretty good to me. Too bad they are going to miss the playoffs.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan is the real deal, but their defense is going to lose them a playoff game.

9. Miami Dolphins: About as consistent this year as any other team.

10. Minnesota Vikings: No other team gives away more games that they should win.

12. Chicago Bears: They are starting to look destined for a playoff spot. Or maybe the Packers and Saints are just proving how bad they are.

26. Green Bay Packers: What an awful, awful second half. Losing streaks don't just happen.

28. Oakland Raiders: Nice, unexpected win over Houston. Will they reach .500 next year? Doubt it.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: This team cannot hold on to a lead. Ever.

30. Cleveland Browns: Bruce Gradkowski gets the start this week. Not sure what to say.

31. St. Louis Rams: So the Dolphins added Chad Pennington and have won nine more games than they did last year. Maybe the Rams should look into signing Matt Hasselbeck, their version of a long-time divisional rival...

32. Detroit Lions

Since I was a little late with this, I added Sports Illustrated, which comes out with their rankings on Wednesdays.

ESPN.com: MIN-11, CHI-13, G.B.-24

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-10, CHI-13, G.B.-25

CBS Sports: MIN-13, CHI-14, G.B.-25

Don Banks (SI): MIN-11, CHI-13, G.B.-25

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-9, CHI-11, G.B.-16

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-11, CHI-14, G.B.-24

FOX Sports: MIN-12, CHI-13, G.B.-25

Vikings 17 Falcons 24

I sometimes wonder if there is another team in the NFL that is as frustrating as the Vikings. For at least two years the Vikings have played games where they appeared to completely outplay their opponent, yet lost because of literally one or two plays.

Yesterday against the Falcons, the Vikings backed up that reputation to the extreme. They coughed up four fumbles and lost despite mostly containing Michael Turner, dominating the Falcons offense in the second half, and having some really nice performances on offense. It is the kind of game that one can't really take anything from; Minnesota looked so good in so many parts of the game, but those four fumbles pretty much wreck the entire week for them.

The Falcons looked good on their opening drive. They came out in a no-huddle offense and marched down the field pretty easily, helped by a couple Vikings penalties. They went up 7-0. Chester Taylor then fumbled the ensuing kick-off, and brought it out only to the 10-yard line. But, miraculously, Tarvaris Jackson looked very sharp in leading a 90-yard drive that ended with a Visanthe Shiancoe touchdown. The Vikings defense settled down and forced a three-and-out. Then the game got stupid.

Bernard Berrian decided not to call for a fair catch with a man in his face, and bobbled the ball. Atlanta recovered and took advantage of the short field to take a 14-7 lead. Minnesota responded with another long drive. Then Adrian Peterson lost the ball at the 17 and gave Atlanta possession. Later in the half, the Vikings were at midfield and Peterson tried to close his arms around a handoff that wasn't there yet, and Atlanta again recovered a fumble. Lucky for the Vikings, Atlanta was content to let the clock expire and settle for a field goal, leaving the score at 17-7 at half. 

The second went almost exactly the same. The Vikings opening drive again looked sharp, until Jackson was sacked and the ball somehow flew backward 20 yards. Atlanta went three-and out.

The Vikings got one first down, but then Matt Birk snapped the ball too early, and Tarvaris Jackson didn't see it. He chased it down and the Vikings were forced to punt. Atlanta took over at their own 49, and used the short field to score another touchdown. This score was perhaps the last straw in the game; Ryan fumbled the ball at the goal line, and two Vikings failed to pick it up before guard Justin Blalock fell on it for the Falcons. 24-7 Atlanta.

From that point on, Atlanta did not earn a first down, while the Vikings tacked on about 150 more yards of offense, but could muster only 10 points. The no-call on a deep pass to Sydney Rice, a play that was surely pass interference, is hard to complain about after the Vikings had already given the game away.

And now both John Clayton and Michael Silver are calling for Gus Frerotte. One of my biggest pet peeves is national sports writers talking about games they didn't watch. These two clearly looked at the stats, saw that Jackson was credited for two fumbles (even though one was obviously Peterson's fault), and now are saying Frerotte will give them a better chance to win. forget the stats (they were pretty good for Jackson). Here is the difference between Jackson and Frerotte right now: Yes, Jackson turned the ball over, but it was kind of flukey play, more of a physical mistake than a mental one. go back and watch Frerotte this entire season. He makes terrible, indefensible mistakes every single game. He throws balls into spots that he shouldn't even be looking. When Jackson plays bad, he tends to get sacked a lot and throw a lot of incompletions. But he isn't playing bad right now. He is throw great balls, and running effectively. And one thing is sure: Jackson can make a lot of throws that Frerotte cannot. Fact.

Adrian Peterson needs to either be benched or fined. You cannot be an NFL running back and fumble this much. He is costing the team victories. He is much more at fault in this game than Jackson. Every running back from Pop Warner and up is taught to keep his arms open until the ball is put into his stomach. Peterson couldn't even do that Sunday. He needs to start running like he knows there is a football in his hands. Unacceptable.

Week 15

There are three types of games this week. I've broken them down by how many of the participants are playoff eligible.

Completely Irrelevant:

Cincinnati at Cleveland: This game will be really hard to watch. Two quarterbacks that might never start another NFL game after this season. Bengals 20-16.

San Francisco at St. Louis: There is something sort of endearing about the 49ers since Mike Singletary took over. 49ers 27-21.

New Orleans at Detroit: The Saints are out of it at 7-7. The Lions are out of it for about five more years. Is Calvin Johnson going to be one of those good players that never gets a shot at the title? Kind of like Herman Moore, now that I think about it. Weird. Saints 34-28.

Houston at Oakland: At least the Raiders have a good kick returner. Texans 35-17.

Relevant:

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are bad, but they finally won last week. The Colts keep doing it ugly, but that is OK in December. Colts 28-14.

Miami at Kansas City: The Chiefs are going to make it hard on Miami, but the Dolphins are learning how to weather the storm. Dolphins 17-13.

Buffalo at Denver: Buffalo probably won't even make it hard on Denver. Broncos 31-16.

New York Jets at Seattle: Seneca Wallace can keep the Seahawks in this one. Will Brett Favre keep the Jets in it? Jets 24-17.

Green Bay at Chicago: The Packers crushed Chicago in their first meeting. I think they can do it again. Packers 21-16.

Completely Relevant:

Baltimore at Dallas: If nothing else, being a Ravens fan this year has been extremely tense. They are built to play close games, and they are playing good teams. I think they are going to push Tony Romo around. Ravens 13-10.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee: The Titans are not ready for the type of game Pittsburgh is going to bring. Steelers 20-13.

Arizona at New England: The Patriots have been beatable at home, but I like their defense against the weird Cardinals. Patriots 27-24.

San Diego at Tampa Bay: The Chargers look inspired suddenly, just as Tampa looks uninspired. Toss a coin... Bucs 21-20.

Atlanta at Minnesota: Even without Pat Williams the Vikings front four is pretty stout. I think Tarvaris Jackson and Adrian Peterson will win this game. Vikings 30-20.

Philadelphia at Washington: It won't be easy or pretty. Eagles 30-21.

Carolina at New York Giants: Something tells me the Giants can come out of this slump OK. And Jake Delhomme is not going to be standing around all day in New York. Giants 21-17.