Divisional Playoffs, Saturday

The question that can't help being asked while watching the Baltimore Ravens is how can one team assemble so many chippy, aggressive, nasty players? The defense is clearly the part of this team that embodies that description best. I can only imagine that when one carries the ball against the Ravens they expect not only to be hit hard, but be hit more than once, and have somebody land on them a second after the whistle blows.

The Ravens aren't cheap. But they do get every bit of physicality possible into every play. Even a tough, scrappy team like Tennessee didn't quite look ready for the Ravens intensity. And the Titans played pretty hard yesterday; don't read this as a "Tennessee is soft" piece. But the Ravens are just that... nasty.

The Titans had something figured out about the Ravens defense going into the game. No other team has thrown the ball that well against Baltimore this year. Kerry Collins was finding people (pretty much Justin Gage every time) open on 3rd downs repeatedly. Chris Johnson was gashing the Ravens on the ground until he got hurt. Dan Dierdorf kept telling us how tired the Ravens defense must have been, to play on the road last week and beat Miami, and come into Tennessee against the rested Titans, and be on the field so much.

But the Titans couldn't finish drives. The Ravens don't let teams finish drives. Some of those turnovers were pretty ugly. But that is what happens when a defense pressures you on every play. Eventually, Collins was going to throw the ball up for grabs, and eventually, one of those hits was going to jar the ball loose. And where was LenDale White? He looked slow. Once Johnson went down, the Titans run game was dead.

The most important thing to take away from this is that the Ravens might be the only team in the league that never has to worry about "match-ups". They can play against anybody, because no matter what team is on the other sideline, they are going to out-physical them, and never stop pressuring the quarterback. This is why everybody should love seeing Baltimore advance, because they are going to be in any game, and do it with sheer will.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are making the most improbable playoff run since... the 2007 New York Giants. Basically, the Cardinals offense went to sleep for about a month and a half, and we all forgot how good their passing game is. Well, they woke up, and we should only be surprised by that fact, not that they are having success.

The one thing that should have been noticed about Carolina all year is that they were never able to throw the ball. They won a lot of games because they were rushing for over 200 yards. Is it safe to call Jake Delhomme "Chad Pennington with no arm"? If that isn't straightforward enough, let's just establish that Pennington has no arm. I'm not ready to list off a bunch of reasons why the Panthers are doomed, but one has to be a little perplexed about the fact that this team basically was a good quarterback away from being as good as any team in the league.

As for Arizona, Larry Fitzgerald sums it up. I still think Andre Johnson is the best wide receiver in the league, but Fitzgerald took that game over. And what about Edgerin James? Great late-season comeback, one that might actually land him on an NFL roster next year. 

Wild Card Weekend

The 2009 NFL Playoffs are here, and at this point it could be anybody's Super Bowl. The Giants, Titans, and Steelers seem to be the favorites, but there are plenty of worthy participants in this year's field of 12. 

Atlanta at Arizona

At first glance this game seems like an easy one to pick. Atlanta has been one of the more consistent teams in the league this year, and their offense has been close to unstoppable. Arizona, conversely, struggled mightily in the second half of the season, and managed only three wins outside of their division. They are the most one-dimensional team in the league, and their high-powered passing attack will have to face John Abraham this week.

I'll admit, I'm not ready to predict that the Cardinals will win this game. But this could be a very close. Atlanta's defense is really bad. Yes, they can get after the quarterback sometimes, but they give up a lot of yards, and sometimes have had to rely on teams coughing up the ball to end drives. Kurt Warner has played plenty of playoffs games, and Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are ready to go. I think the Cardinals need to continue to give the ball to Edgerrin James, who has come back to life a little the last couple weeks.

Still, Atlanta can control the ball in this game, and assuming Matt Ryan doesn't fall apart, a turnover-free game should be enough for Atlanta to take this one. Falcons 34-28.

Indianapolis at San Diego

The Colts are the best team without a bye in these playoffs. But, they'll be playing on the road probably all the way through. I think this game has the biggest chance of being a blow-out. I see the Colts taking their time moving up and down the field, and their defense bending-but-not-breaking. It is hard not to go with Peyton Manning. Colts 27-13.

Baltimore at Miami

I love watching the Ravens play, and this should be a good match-up for their style of play. If there is one team that won't get flustered by the wild cat offense, it is the Ravens. That said, Miami is another team that has been pretty consistent all year, and always comes ready to play. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are not going to find much room against the Ravens defense, and Chad Pennington's floaty-but-accurate passes better be even sharper.

Baltimore struggled earlier this year against good teams because they weren't finishing games. They seem to have learned how to do that now. Ask Dallas. I see their running backs pounding the Dolphins defense. Ravens 20-13.

Philadelphia at Minnesota

The Vikings are one of the few teams in the NFL anymore that seems to have a legitimate home-field advantage. When the fans show up, the Metrodome is loud. The key to this game will be whether one or the other jumps out to a big lead. The Vikings haven't really fallen that far behind at all this year, but they play tight when behind. The Eagles have simply been awful when they are losing. 

If Tarvaris Jackson can stay on his feet and find his check-downs, the Vikings might really surprise people on Sunday. The weirdest thing about this game is that the Eagles have become the "dark horse" of this year's playoffs. Every year one team gets a bunch of attention at the last minute, and everybody starts picking them. I'm not sure the Eagles deserve it. If their run-defense has a huge day, they will win. Otherwise, this is a toss-up. Vikings 24-21.

Hypothetical Playoff Predictions that will change with the outcome of this weekend's games

If all of my above picks are right (no chance), here is how I see the rest of the playoffs going:

AFC

The Ravens victory would force them to travel to Tennessee, and the Colts would take on Pittsburgh. I think that would set up a Steelers-Titans rematch in the AFC Championship, and the Steelers would win.

NFC

The six-seed Eagles would completely change the NFC if they got into the second round, but I don't think they will. So, I see Atlanta losing to New York, and Minnesota losing to Carolina. Then the Panthers would go to New York and win that rematch.

I guess at this point predicting the Steelers to beat the Panthers in the Super Bowl seems as safe as possible. That will change in about 48 hours.

Late Rankings

1. Tennessee Titans: Didn't see that coming. Their defense might be able to carry them.

2. New York Giants: Way to snap back into it in time to save home-field advantage. Now they will probably rest for the Vikings.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: I'll give them a break. With this schedule, you are going to lose on the road a couple times.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Win, win, win.

5. Baltimore Ravens: Huge win over Dallas, the kind that should get them a ton of respect. 

6. Carolina Panthers: I don't see this team going far in the playoffs.

7. New England Patriots: They look pretty good to me. Too bad they are going to miss the playoffs.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan is the real deal, but their defense is going to lose them a playoff game.

9. Miami Dolphins: About as consistent this year as any other team.

10. Minnesota Vikings: No other team gives away more games that they should win.

12. Chicago Bears: They are starting to look destined for a playoff spot. Or maybe the Packers and Saints are just proving how bad they are.

26. Green Bay Packers: What an awful, awful second half. Losing streaks don't just happen.

28. Oakland Raiders: Nice, unexpected win over Houston. Will they reach .500 next year? Doubt it.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: This team cannot hold on to a lead. Ever.

30. Cleveland Browns: Bruce Gradkowski gets the start this week. Not sure what to say.

31. St. Louis Rams: So the Dolphins added Chad Pennington and have won nine more games than they did last year. Maybe the Rams should look into signing Matt Hasselbeck, their version of a long-time divisional rival...

32. Detroit Lions

Since I was a little late with this, I added Sports Illustrated, which comes out with their rankings on Wednesdays.

ESPN.com: MIN-11, CHI-13, G.B.-24

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-10, CHI-13, G.B.-25

CBS Sports: MIN-13, CHI-14, G.B.-25

Don Banks (SI): MIN-11, CHI-13, G.B.-25

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-9, CHI-11, G.B.-16

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-11, CHI-14, G.B.-24

FOX Sports: MIN-12, CHI-13, G.B.-25

Another ranking

I decided that only showing a Top 5 is a bit of a cop-out this late in the year, with things so tight. The rest of the way I will give the Top 10. Philadelphia is going to have to win one more before I elevate them. That losing streak was just too ugly. The Jets will have to win and actually play well before they get back in there. 

1. Tennessee Titans: I have to move them up simply because they only have played poorly in one game.

2. New York Giants: No need to worry just yet, though Dallas, Carolina, and Minnesota will all challenge them down the stretch.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: They just keep chipping away at it. Amazing defense.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Quietly having a really nice year. Should at least win a playoff game.

5. Carolina Panthers: They could steal home field advantage from the Giants if they win out.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I thought Tampa Bay would win on Monday night. But I didn't account for them giving up a million rushing yards.

7. Baltimore Ravens. Such a play-making defense. Hard to see them making it late January, but a great season for an old team with a rookie coach.

8. New England Patriots: As up and down as this year has been, I think you have to keep an eye on them the rest of the way. 

9. Atlanta Falcons: Tough loss, but they can still secure a wildcard spot, barring a huge collapse. Watch out for Philadelphia.

10. Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo definitely makes them a better team, but he will lose a game for them now and then. They better hope he doesn't do it again this year.

13. Minnesota Vikings: I have a hard time thinking they will win more than one more game, which should open the door for Chicago.

18. Chicago Bears: They have as real a shot as the Vikings have, as long as they can take care of the Packers and Texans.

24. Green Bay Packers: The defense really sucks. That is a lot of yards to give up.

28. Oakland Raiders: I'm not sure there is even hope in the near future here.

29. Seattle Seahawks: They seem to keep games close at least.

30. Cincinnati Bengals: What an awful loss. The Colts crushed them.

31. St. Louis Rams: They are at least staying close the last couple weeks.

32. Detroit Lions

Green Bay continues to fall, their highest ranking coming from Jeff Sagarin, whose computer put them at 15. Minnesota managed two Top 10 votes.

ESPN.com: MIN-15, CHI-19, G.B.-23

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-9, CHI-17, G.B.-22

CBS Sports: MIN-10, CHI-16, G.B.-23

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-9, CHI-12, G.B.-15

FOX Sports: MIN-14, CHI-17, G.B.-21

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-11, CHI-18, G.B. 23

Top Five, Bottom Five

1. New York Giants: Best team in the league, not even close.

2. Tennessee Titans: One of the easiest wins I have ever seen. They should wrap up the AFC South soon.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Toughest schedule in the league, and they just keep winning. Really one of the better defenses in recent memory, at least statistically. 

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I still feel like after Pittsburgh, the next six or seven spots are a jumble. Dallas is really close to getting back into the Top Five. Tampa is playing as consistent as anybody.

5. Indianapolis Colts: An ugly win against Cleveland, but when a team keeps winning, that means they are good.

12. Minnesota Vikings: If they had Kevin and Pat Williams the rest of the way, and could beat Detroit this week, the division would pretty much be theirs. But they almost certainly won't have those two, and without them, even Detroit is not a guaranteed win.

19. Chicago Bears: They have officially come back to Earth. They did a good job up piling up wins before this bad stretch though, and still have a shot at the playoffs.

21. Green Bay Packers: Their schedule is seriously weak, and that is their only hope. Houston, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Detroit are all very beatable, even for the struggling Packers. They'll have to win all four.

28. Oakland Raiders: Not sure what to say about the Raiders. They show up every week, but they aren't that good. Nice defense though. 

29. Seattle Seahawks: Mike Holmgren should have sat this year out. He could have started fresh in 2009 with San Francisco, a team that he might be able to take to 9-7 or so. Instead, he either won't get that year off, or he won't get a shot with the 49ers.

30. Cincinnati Bengals: I think the Bengals and Chiefs deserve some sort of consolation pat on the back for fighting so hard despite never having a chance in 2008. A lot of injuries here, too.

31. St. Louis Rams: The Rams are actually almost as bad as the Lions, if you can believe that. It is too bad for Marc Bulger, who is having an awful year. I would like to see him get a shot on a better team, because he is a legit quarterback, probably could win a Super Bowl with a decent team around him.

32. Detroit Lions: 

ESPN.com: MIN-15, CHI-19, G.B.-20

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-9, CHI-17, G.B. 20

CBS Sports: MIN- 13, CHI-18, G.B.-21

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-8, G.B.-12, CHI-13

FOX Sports: MIN-14, CHI-18, G.B.-20

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-12, CHI-19, G.B.-21

Power Ballad

After an exciting Week 10, here is where they stand:

1. Tennessee Titans: Taking care of the NFC North this year. They surely will not go undefeated.

2. New York Giants: Who will beat the Giants? They are extremely balanced.

3. Carolina Panthers: Not an impressive win against the terrible Raiders. 7-2 is a nice record though, and they are on the way to a playoff berth.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers: I can't shake the feeling that this team just needs to get into the playoffs, and then they can really do some damage. The Ravens are sneaking up.

5. New England Patriots: They refuse to lose in consecutive games. They are far realer than the Jets and Dolphins.

16. Chicago Bears: Can they hold off the Packers are create a little bit of separation? Probably not with Rex Grossman.

17. Minnesota Vikings: The defense is starting to come on, though the big plays have disappeared. They once were a threat to score on returns every other game.

20. Green Bay Packers: Rough, confusing loss. They are still right in it, especially with a win against Chicago.

28. St. Louis Rams: A week after the Raiders played the worst game of any team this year, Rams one-up them.

29. Cincinnati Bengals: No longer the best 1-8 team, now that Kansas City has joined them.

30. Seattle Seahawks: Nice effort, but you can't rest your hopes on Koren Robinson. 

31. Oakland Raiders: Jake Delhomme was awful, and yet the Raiders lose by double digits. Oof.

32. Detroit Lions

Michael Silver still has the most NFC North respect, though he dropped the Packers nine spots.

ESPN.com: CHI-14, MIN-17, G.B.-21

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): CHI-10, MIN-12, G.B.-17

CBS Sportsline: MIN-15, CHI-17, G.B.-19

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): CHI-8, MIN-14, G.B.-15

FOX Sports: CHI-11, MIN-19, G.B.-19

More rankings.

Yet again the  top five are intact. New England drops a few spots, and is replaced at 5 by Washington.

1. Tennessee Titans: This deep into the season, you can't drop the only undefeated team below first.

2. New York Giants: If you were going to drop the Titans, it would be for New York. They dominated the floundering Cowboys, and are head and shoulders above the rest of the best division in the league.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: They have the best back up quarterback in the league, and he came through in a big Monday night win.

4. Carolina Panthers: Playing mostly consistent, looking to come off their bye week and keep the momemtum.

5. Washington: Tough loss to Pittsburgh. Still one of the few six-win teams in the league.

10. Chicago Bears: Found a way to win despite Detroit playing one of its better games. They need to make a few weeks with Rex Grossman at quarterback.

18. Green Bay Packers: Still not convinced by this team, as they seem to play to their opponents level every week. Need Aaron Rodgers to stay healthy.

21. Minnesota Vikings: An even less convincing team, but they played their best game of the season so far.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: They finally finished a game, and get their first win of the year.

29. San Francisco 49ers: Haven't seen enough of this team, but they don't seem to have a lot going for them.

30. Seattle Seahawks: Really bad.

31. Oakland Raiders: Worst team performance of the season on Sunday. By any team in the league, that is.

32. Detroit Lions: Like the Titans, you can't move a team from this spot until they win a game.

The experts stayed about the same this week with their NFC North rankings. Most had Chicago highest, and all had Detroit at 32. Michael Silver has consistently ranked NFC North teams higher than ESPN, CBS, and Jeff Sagarin's computer have. He currently has two division teams in the top 10, and by his average ranking for the Vikings is five spots higher than ESPN's and seven spots higher than CBS's. Interesting?

ESPN.com: CHI-9, G.B.-16, MIN-20, DET-32

Michael Silver(Yahoo!): G.B.-7, CHI-9, MIN-13, DET-32

CBS Sportline: CHI-15, G.B.-16, MIN-19, DET-32

Jeff Sagarin(USA Today): CHI-8, G.B.-14, MIN-14, DET-32

FOX Sports: CHI-7, G.B.-12, MIN-19, DET-32

Blind Rankings

Note: I only saw one game this week, the Chiefs at Jets. Nonetheless:

1. Tennessee Titans: Can't question them anymore. They've passed every test so far, and are already a lock for a playoff spot.

2. New York Giants: In the first match-up of super-powers, the Giants came out ahead.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers held their own, but they could use a back up long-snapper.

4. Carolina Panthers: They've won two in a row(6-2). They also lost to Tampa Bay(5-3), so this division should be interesting right to the end.

5: New England Patriots: There is something to be said about a team going 5-2 with Matt Cassell making his first six starts ever. Or maybe it says something about their coach.

14. Chicago Bears: Bye week, weeeeee.

16. Green Bay Packers: They seem to play to the level of their opponents, so who knows what will happen when they visit Tennessee?

21. Minnesota Vikings: They can't lose Kevin and Pat Williams. It won't hurt to have Madieu Williams back, though

28. Seattle Seahawks: Not impressed with either of their wins so far.

29. San Francisco: Not impressed with them period.

30. Oakland Raiders: Still showing some sparks of talent and potential, at least.

31. Cincinnati Bengals: They'll win a couple this year, I promise.

32. Detroit Lions: They'll lose quite a few more, I promise.

Michael Silver is still high on the NFC North. Nobody has ranked the Lions above 32 in weeks.

ESPN.com:G.B.-11, CHI-12, MIN-23, DET-32

CBS Sportsline: G.B.-9, CHI-16, MIN-25, DET-32

Jeff Sagarin(USA Today): CHI-8, G.B.13-, MIN-15, DET-32

Michael Silver(Yahoo!):G.B.-8, CHI-10, MIN-17, DET-32

FOX Sports: CHI-8, G.B.-14, MIN-23, DET-32

Rankeroo

No changes in the top seven this week. They didn't all win, but none lost. The middle continues its muddled ways, and the bottom has a few new-comers. Excitement!

1. Tennessee Titans: Another big win. How will they handle the up and down Colts?

2. Pittsburgh Steelers: They play a consistent and balanced brand of football, something that most teams could learn from this year.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Like the others in the Top 5, they took care of business.

4. New York Giants: Too bad they lost to such a bad team. They'd still be in the top spot otherwise.

5. Buffalo Bills: I was wrong about this team. Will they continue to prove me wrong?

13. Chicago Bears: A win's a win, but they have a lot of work to do if they want to get out of the wildcard round.

17. Green Bay Packers: I need to see more. Two dominating wins in a row, though.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Huge day on offense, but you can't win when you give away points.

28. Cleveland Browns: They are better than the four teams below them, but they just aren't going to win a lot of games this year.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: One week they show some fight. The next they get completely embarrassed.

30. Seattle Seahawks: Another team that just isn't very good.

31. Cincinnati Bengals: There's a lot of fight in this team, considering.

32. Detroit Lions: With Roy Williams gone, they have nothing to even remotely scare opposing teams. Calvin Johnson can't do it all.

Experts: Silver continues to love the NFC North (at least relative to the rest of 'em).

ESPN.com: G.B.-10, CHI-13, MIN-22, DET-32

CBS Sportsline: G.B.-11, CHI-18, MIN-24, DET-32

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): G.B.-9, CHI-13, MIN-17, DET-32

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): CHI-6, G.B.-16, MIN-17, DET-32

Rankings

After Week 6 there is further proof that the NFL has turned into a mush of mediocre teams. Whether they are mediocre relative to each other or the NFL of 10, 20, or 30 years ago, I'm not sure. But there sure aren't any clear cut favorites so far, and only a couple teams are out of it.

1. Tennessee Titans: The bye week was good to a couple teams. The Titans should go into their Monday Night Football match up with Indianapolis 6-0.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers: Three of my top five teams had byes this week. Shows how quickly things change.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Very impressive win, even if I think the Panthers have been overrated so far.

4. New York Giants: Not a good loss, but the Giants still are in control of a tough division.

5. Buffalo Bills: At five for now, but they could have a losing record a month from now. Next four games: SD, at MIA, NY Jets, at NE.

18. Chicago Bears: The Bears could open a nice NFC North lead if they can take care of Minnesota and Detroit at home in their next two games (with a bye sandwiched between).

19. Minnesota Vikings: A win is a win in this league. They are right there in the middle of things, with some big divisional games coming up.

20. Green Bay Packers: Good job taking care of a lesser team. That is something that shouldn't be taken for granted in the NFL.

28. Oakland Raiders: The Saints needed a win, and they took out some frustration on the Raiders

29. Seattle Seahawks: Hard to imagine things getting much better for this team.

30. St. Louis Rams: Good win, but I'm not moving them up yet. I still remember their September.

31. Cincinnati Bengals: They look pretty good for an 0-6 team, but they still are 0-6.

32. Detroit Lions: Score was close, which is a step in the right direction. But they only gained 212 yards, and couldn't maintain drives.

The Experts:

ESPN.com: G.B.-19, CHI-20, MIN-21, DET-32

CBS Sportsline: G.B.-16, CHI-21, MIN-22, DET-32

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): G.B.-14, MIN-15, CHI-16, DET-32

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): CHI-8, MIN-18, G.B.-22, DET-32