Week 2 "Rankings"

This early in the season rankings just don't work. It is near-impossible attach a meaningful number in front of every team. So, I copped out and put them into equally meaningless categories.

These teams really should make the playoffs:
Atlanta: A pretty solid team all around, they don't have to lean to heavily on any part of the team. If they continue to hold serve, I like them to finish with double-digit wins.
Baltimore: Baltimore suddenly is not just a defensive team. They have score 38 and 31 so far, and the defense is just fine.
Indianapolis: The Colts are still pretty good. The offense will never get completely shut down this year.
New Orleans: Right now they are following that old super-offense path: Score an outrageous amount of points, and give your defense free rein to take a lot of chances with a lead.
New York Giants: Eli Manning may not be pretty, but he does a bit of his brother's winning streak in him. The Giants are still solid across the board, and it is hard to imagine them not at least grabbing a wildcard spot, even this early in the season.

I'll believe it when their 12-4 and hosting a playoff game, but until then...
Minnesota: It's still not clear if Brett Favre can make plays downfield. And where has that vaunted run defense been so far?
New York Jets: Is Mark Sanchez going to go down the Matt Ryan path this season? What happens when he falters?
Pittsburgh: Hard to believe that they lost to the Bears.
New England: Why are they passing so much? Until Tom Brady starts throwing more accurately, they are definitely beatable.
San Francisco: What will they do when somebody finally slows down Frank Gore? I'm not sure they have a passing game that get them to the playoffs.
Philadelphia: The longer McNabb is out, the further they get from the top of the NFC East.

Need Work:
Arizona: Kurt Warner had an amazing day against the Jaguars, but the Cardinals are still the same old from what we can tell so far.
Buffalo: The Bills defense looks good so far, especially against the run. The Saints will test them, but not many defenses are going to stop the Saints this year. The true test will be whether Trent Edwards and the offense has success against the so-so Saints defense.
Chicago: Jay Cutler has shown his two main traits: He can lose a game by himself, and win a game by himself.
Cincinnati:The Bengals defense is good, but it might need to be great to get this team into the playoffs.
Dallas: The Cowboys responded well to most of what they saw from the Giants this week, but Tony Romo has to be smarter with the ball, and that will be the deciding factor for Dallas this year.
Green Bay: Scoring on defense is great, but it doesn't do much good when you can't stop the run and give up 31 points. Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is getting hit, a lot.
Houston: Well, the offense isn't dead after all. The defense needs to play better against the run, but the Texans could still challenge the Colts this year.
San Diego: Inconsistency is their calling card.
Seattle: Without Matt Hasselbeck... well, they are not very good.
Tennessee: 0-2 already, and probably not thrilled to see that the Colts are still pretty good.

Teams that probably won't hang around past November, but aren't finished yet:
Carolina: An 0-2 start looks a lot worse when New Orleans and Atlanta are already 2-0 (one win against the Panthers). The worst part is that the Panthers don't really match up well with either of those teams, and could get swept by both.
Denver: The 2-0 start is nice, and San Diego doesn't look all that scary, but the Broncos will have to play a couple of good teams, and Oakland and Kansas City aren't pushovers for Denver anymore.
Miami: 0-2 in the AFC East is almost a deathknell. The Dolphins will have to do very well in their division schedule to catch up.
Oakland: JaMarcus Russell isn't very good.
Washington: They just can't seem to play full games, and sometimes the simplest things go awry.

Teams that I'm pretty sure are already finished:
Cleveland: No offense, no defense. Their return team is pretty good though.
Detroit: I have tried not to say anything about the Lions for a while now, but they are finally improving. Kevin Jones is a solid running back and their defense is a little better.
Jacksonville: The Jaguars can't throw the ball enough to make their offense a even a small threat, and their defense isn't that good either.
Kansas City: The Chiefs are still a long ways off. They just don't have the players right now.
St. Louis: Worst team in the NFL.
Tampa Bay: The Bucs defense is actually not horrible. Byron Leftwich probably won't start this entire season.

Predicting 2009

I did something I have never done before: Printed out an the entire NFL schedule for 2009, and predicted the winner for every single game. Thus, I arrived at the following predictions. I want to point out that doing it this way, while very precise and much more accurate, leds things to get a bit skewed. Had I just come up with records off the top of my head, surely the Eagles, Dolphins, and Ravens would not have racked up so many wins. But I'll stand by this tally.

AFC East

New England 13-3

Miami 12-4

Buffalo 6-10

New York 4-12

AFC North

Baltimore 12-4

Pittsburgh 10-6

Cincinnati 8-8

Cleveland 4-12

AFC South

Houston 10-6

Indianapolis 9-7

Jacksonville 8-8

Tennessee 8-8

AFC West

San Diego 10-6

Kansas City 5-11

Denver 3-13

Oakland 3-13

NFC East

Philadelphia 13-3

New York 10-6

Dallas 8-7

Washington 7-9

NFC North

Minnesota 11-5

Chicago 9-7

Green Bay 8-8

Detroit 4-12

NFC South

Atlanta 10-6

New Orleans 10-6

Carolina 8-8

Tampa Bay 4-12

NFC West

Seattle 10-6

Arizona 8-8

San Francisco 6-10

St. Louis 5-11

AFC Wildcard

San Diego over Miami

Pittsburgh over Houston

AFC Divisional

Baltimore over San Diego

New England over Pittsburgh

AFC Championship

New England over Baltimore

NFC Wildcard

New Orleans over Atlanta

New York over Seattle

NFC Divisional

Minnesota over New Orleans

New York over Philadelphia

NFC Championship

Minnesota over New York

Super Bowl

New England over Minnesota

*Note that the NFC Playoffs are eerily similar to the 2000 NFC Playoffs. A coincidence, for sure.

Playoff Rankings

1. New York Giants: They are the favorites to win it all right now.

2. Tennessee Titans: It's time to back up that nice regular season record.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Hopefully their week off allowed them to gear up for a big rematch with San Diego. No reason why they should lose this game.

4. Baltimore Ravens: Basically the only reason they won't beat Tennessee is if Joe Flacco has a bad game.

5. Carolina Panthers: I expect them to be in the NFC Championship.

6. Philadelphia Eagles: They are who we thought they were. But the Giants offensive line will present a new challenge.

7. Indianapolis Colts: Not the way the Colts thought this season would end, but there was something a little shaky about them all year.

8. Miami Dolphins: Chad Pennington should be able to take this team to the playoffs again next year.

9. Arizona Cardinals: Nice home playoff win, but I don't see them moving on.

10. San Diego Chargers: Nice home playoff win, but I don't see them moving on. Good luck, Darren Sproles.

11. Atlanta Falcons: Nice season, far beyond expectations.

12. Minnesota Vikings: This team needs a quarterback. And a new coach.

Final Regular Season Ranks

1. New York Giants: They lost, and I moved them up. what gives? Seeing them up close made me realize how dominant their offensive line is, and Steve Spagnuolo has some pretty nice blitz packages. I'm guessing it will come down to a game at the Meadowlands against Carolina.

2. Tennessee Titans: Baltimore could make things tough on the Titans come round two. But I think the Colts would beat them.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Leftwich probably could win a couple playoff games with this team. Steelers fans should probably hope he stays on the bench though.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Nine wins in a row is nothing to scoff at. I think they will challenge either Pittsburgh or Tennessee in the second round, and if they get through there, might be Super.

5. Baltimore Ravens: Here's hoping we get to see Baltimore play Miami, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Talk about some old-school football.

6. Carolina Panthers: Will anybody be able to stop DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith in the playoffs?

7. Miami Dolphins: They just keep on winning. Their defense deserves a lot of credit. How valuable is Ricky Williams? Because of him the Dolphins go into the playoffs with two relatively fresh running backs.

8. New England Patriots: By far the best team to miss the playoffs, probably playing as well as anybody right now. Matt Cassel appears to be the real deal, and if reports that Tom Brady's recovery is going slowly are correct, New England might have to throw Cassel a fat one-year deal.

9. Atlanta Falcons: Not the way you would like to handle the Rams at home going into the playoffs, but they should beat the Cardinals in round one.

10. Minnesota Vikings: Granted, it was against some of the Giants back-ups. But the Vikings made a pretty nice 4th-quarter comeback Sunday, and clinched the NFC North.

11. Philadelphia Eagles: They have played a lot better in December, but this big win over Dallas isn't enough to wash that performance against Washington out of my memory.

12. San Diego Chargers: I guess you have to give them credit for fighting and getting back into the mix. They still aren't that good.

13. Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo and Brett Favre looked a lot alike in the last few weeks. And they both cost their teams a shot at the playoffs.

14. Arizona Cardinals: Maybe the most one-dimensional team in the NFL. Probably won't win a playoff game.

15. Houston Texans: I like Matt Schuab and Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the league. Steve Slaton looks to be their running back for a few years also. If they can improve on defense, they will be a contender next year. (Yes, everybody said the exact same thing last year. It's true.)

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs were one of the more balanced teams for a lot of this season, but the run defense wore down, and Jeff Garcia couldn't stay healthy. I think they will challenge the NFC South again next season.

17. Chicago Bears: The Bears defense was simply terrible. They are the biggest reason this team missed the playoffs. And, really, the only really they even hung around was because of some weird special teams plays.

18. Denver Broncos: Their defense was awful all year, and it didn't come through Sunday night.

19. New York Jets: At 8-3 they were on the fast track to an AFC East title and maybe even a first-round bye. Then all of their weaknesses got exposed, over and over. Brett Favre needs to retire. The Jets should look at what Aaron Rodgers did, and hope that Clemens can be the man by 2010.

20. New Orleans: Aside from some individual performances, the Saints were a big disappointment.

21. San Francisco 49ers: Mike Singletary got this team to play with some guts in the second half of the season. I think they are a better team than most people know.

22. Washington: They need more from the quarterback position.

23. Buffalo Bills: Overachieved for a little while, but came down to Earth hard. Will have to start finishing drives before they can be taken seriously. 

24. Oakland Raiders: A pretty solid defense, a quarterback who is almost ready to step up and be the man, and a couple good running backs. 8-8 next year?

25. Green Bay Packers: They had some of the same problems last year, but Brett Favre helped hide them. I don't think he would have made much difference this year.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars: Somewhere along the line this team completely lost focus, and despite a couple nice efforts at the end of the year, I would be worried about them were I a fan.

27. Cincinnati Bengals: If they had played as hard as a unit with Carson Palmer, they might have stayed relevant for a little while. 

28. Seattle Seahawks: I might buy the injury argument with this team, but with everybody healthy could they have accounted for even half of their 12 losses? Doubtful.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: This team is so young. They took a lot of lumps this year. Hopefully Tony Gonzalez gets a chance somewhere else next year, because he can still play.

30. Cleveland Browns: I am really shocked by how bad the Browns are. Last year was a fluke, apparently.

31. St. Louis Rams: I feel like St. Louis has a couple nice pieces. Marc Bulger probably needs to be on a good team to be an elite quarterback. This team has a long way to go.

32. Detroit Lions: I don't know that there is anything to say about the Lions.

Week 12 Rankings

1. New York Giants: They just keep on rolling, and beating quality teams in the process. Their next three games are all against NFC East teams. It is possible they will win the division during that stretch, but they might get their second loss either at Washington or at Dallas.

2. Tennessee Titans: The loss won't hurt them in the long run. They will win the division in the coming weeks, when they play at Detroit, host Cleveland, and then go to Houston. They finish with Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, but might have home-field wrapped up by then.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: New England, Dallas, Baltimore, Tennessee. They will win at least two of these games, but man that is a tough stretch.

4. New York Jets: I will finally put them in the mix up here. Brett Favre has been protecting the ball the last few weeks. If they keep playing this way there is no reason why they can't run the table (DEN, at SF, BUF, at Sea, MIA).

5. New England Patriots: I like this team. Even with Matt Cassel at quarterback, they have a ton of weapons, and their defense is pretty tough.

14. Minnesota Vikings: A nice win for the Vikings, but they will have to be able to throw the ball down the stretch.

15. Chicago Bears: A nice win for the Bears, but they are going to have to beat a quality team at some point.

20. Green Bay Packers: A terrible loss for the Packers. Their biggest strength got dominated. 

28. Seattle Seahawks: Playing better with Matt Hasselbeck, but they are bad.

29. Cincinnati Bengals: Ok, so they play hard every week. Win a game once in a while though.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Same as above.

31. St. Louis Rams: They look real real bad lately.

32. Detroit Lions

Chicago got a few 15's and minnesota got two 11's and two 16's. Everybody has Green Bay as the third best in the NFC North. Check out Vinnie Iyer from the Sporting News, giving Detroit some respect.

ESPN.com: CHI-15, MIN-17, G.B.-20

CBS Sports: CHI-16, MIN-17, G.B.-19

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-11, CHI-15, G.B.-18

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-11, CHI-12, G.B.-13

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): CHI-15, MIN-16, G.B.-17, DET-31 (He has St. Louis at 32.)

FOX Sports: CHI-15, MIN-16, G.B.-18

Ranking the NFL

1. New York Giants: Contradicting myself by moving the Titans, but the Giants are simply the best team in the league right now.

2. Tennessee Titans: They keep doing what they do.

3. Carolina Panthers: From this point on it felt like nobody deserved to be so high, but somebody had to go here.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers: They are winning extremely close games. Will they wear down?

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They are one of the more balanced teams in the league, mostly because of Jeff Garcia.

16. Minnesota Vikings: They lost to a better team, and moved up because Chicago and Philadelphia fell apart.

17. Green Bay Packers: I'm not ready to say they've righted the ship just yet.

20. Chicago Bears: Two in a row, but they get the Rams next.

28. Kansas City Chiefs: They have some nice young players. I wonder how long they will keep Herm Edwards around.

29. Seattle Seahawks: They suck.

30. St. Louis Rams: It seems to be getting worse.

31. Oakland Raiders: At least they kept it close.

32. Detroit Lions

ESPN.com: G.B.- 16, CHI-19, MIN-21

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): G.B.-11, MIN-12, CHI-17

CBS Sports: G.B.-15, CHI-18, MIN-20

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): G.B.-9, CHI-12, MIN-15

FOX Sports: G.B.-14, CHI-17, MIN-18