One week later

This photo seems an apt way to sum up the Vikings season. A couple days late, but you'll understand:

I freak out after reading the Strib

Dear Patrick Reusse, Star Tribune Floating Head:

Do you believe the things you write? Do you ever go through your columns and laugh at yourself?

Your logic is simply not on point. Listen, if Tarvaris Jackson is not a viable option at quarterback because we lost to the Eagles, he wasn't a viable option the week before or the week before that. If you watch every play, and you know anything about football (and I know enough about journalism to know that you have this job because you worked your ass off as a reporter and writer for years, NOT because you are an expert on football), you would understand a few things: Tarvaris Jackson gave the Vikings a better chance to win that game than Gus Frerotte. Check your buddy Kevin Seifert out. He threw out some interesting stats about the two quarterbacks' success against the blitz. Frerotte was a lot worse than Jackson. Also, there is not a single quarterback in the NFL who "beats" effective blitz or effective pressure. For reference, go watch Tom Brady in last year's Super Bowl, or for something more local, Peyton Manning in the first half against the Vikings this year. Actually, that is a great example. You know why Manning picked us apart in the second half? We stopped getting to him. Simple. There were Eagles running free on most passing plays, and Philadelphia didn't even blitz as much as expected. No, I repeat, NO, quarterback would have succeed against the pressure.

That said, Jackson was inaccurate all day. You know his only problem? He is too willing to try to throw passes when he is being hit. Almost every bad play he has ever made has come when he isn't able to step into a throw.

"You can only do what the quarterback can handle, and once he was blitzed, sacked and fumbled to end the opening possession of the second half, Jackson couldn't handle the basics."

You can also only do what the coaches give you a chance to do. Brad Childress, in Weeks 1 and 2 and in the second half against Philadelphia, clammed up. His play calling gave away the fact that he had no confidence in Jackson. Don't blame Jackson for Childress not giving him a chance to fail or succeed. Next time you talk to ol' Brad, ask him what happened to the seam routes to Shiancoe and the deep ins to Wade. If you can only do what the quarterback can handle, and he is struggling, why do you keep calling the same plays?

The only smart thing Childress did? Accept that holding penalty. Remember when the Giants converted a 3rd and 21 in Vikings territory? Or when David Akers made a 51-yarder about 15 minutes after that first field goal? Oops. Go watch any football game on any Sunday. On 3rd and 15 or more, teams gain yards. Almost always. The likelihood of that ending up being a 53-yard isn't even worth talking about. And the argument that maybe the defense would have come up with a huge play? They could come up with a huge play every single down, in theory. Why not just leave them on the field for 60 minutes?

And the last line, about Detroit? What a crock of shit. Seriously? How could you possibly manage that? How did you even come up with that comparison? If you aren't OK with 10-6 and the playoffs, go buy a fucking Yankees hat.

Yours always,

Brad Tucker

Vikings Defense: Tice vs Childress

Here are some comparisons between the Vikings defense of the last three years (2006-2008) and the Vikings defense in the three years before Brad Childress took over (2003-2005). (Mike Tice was also the coach in 2002, but I excluded that year to keep it at three years each. Therefore, it is less a comparison of the two coaches as a comparison between Childress and where he took off from.) The Vikings were a combined 26-22 in the three years before Childress. With him as head coach, they are 24-24. They made one playoff appearance in each stretch.

Against the run, the Vikings defense has improved by leaps and bounds. This is well-documented. In the final three Tice seasons the team gave up 4.46 ypr, and 119 ypg. In the three Childress years those numbers have gone down to 3.09 and 70.8, respectively. That is enormous improvement. In the final three Tice seasons the Vikings gave up 51 rushing touchdowns. Childress' teams have given up just 26. They have also forced 22 more fumbles and recovered 14 more. Pretty incredible difference. Pat Williams played just one season with Mike Tice as head coach (the team was 19th against the run, and gave up 4 ypr in 2005). That season, neither Ben Leber or Chad Greenway were on the team and E.J. Henderson was not yet a starter.

The passing numbers are a little less encouraging. Completion percentage has gone up from 61.3 to 61.6. Passing yards allowed per game has gone up from 219.1 to 239.4. Yards per play has gone down. Touchdowns have gone down from 65 to 52. Interceptions and sacks have both gone down. Basically, things are about the same against the pass. But, it bears noting that in 2008 the Vikings improved in basically ever single pass defense statistic except interceptions.

The most important differenc is in 3rd down percentage. From 2003-2005 Minnesota allowed 3rd down conversions 42.6% of the time. Childress' defenses give them up just 36.2% of the time, and were 4th in the league this year. 4th down conversions have also improved. 

Most appalling are the penalty numbers. In Mike Tice's second season, 2003, Minnesota did OK with penalties, committing 90 for 720 yards. Since then the team has committed at least 109 every season. To show how much penalties have gone down league-wide, the Vikings committed 110 in 2004 and were ranked 15th in the league. This season they committed 109 and were ranked 29th. 

Playoff Rankings

1. New York Giants: They are the favorites to win it all right now.

2. Tennessee Titans: It's time to back up that nice regular season record.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Hopefully their week off allowed them to gear up for a big rematch with San Diego. No reason why they should lose this game.

4. Baltimore Ravens: Basically the only reason they won't beat Tennessee is if Joe Flacco has a bad game.

5. Carolina Panthers: I expect them to be in the NFC Championship.

6. Philadelphia Eagles: They are who we thought they were. But the Giants offensive line will present a new challenge.

7. Indianapolis Colts: Not the way the Colts thought this season would end, but there was something a little shaky about them all year.

8. Miami Dolphins: Chad Pennington should be able to take this team to the playoffs again next year.

9. Arizona Cardinals: Nice home playoff win, but I don't see them moving on.

10. San Diego Chargers: Nice home playoff win, but I don't see them moving on. Good luck, Darren Sproles.

11. Atlanta Falcons: Nice season, far beyond expectations.

12. Minnesota Vikings: This team needs a quarterback. And a new coach.

Vikings lose, lose, lose

As usual, my predictions were awful. I got one game right, and was pretty wrong pretty much across the board on the other games, on every point.

There are about 600 things I could say about the Vikings-Eagles game. It was disappointing in many, many ways, because of the bad and good things Minnesota did. Unfortunately, everybodys' projections for this game were correct: the Eagles blitzing stymied Tarvaris Jackson, and the Vikings couldn't sustain drives. What I want to talk about it is why what everybody is saying after the game is wrong.

There have been basically two complaints against the Vikings in the hours since they lost a home wild card game: Jackson was a mess, and Childress should have accepted a holding penalty in the first quarter and made the Eagles go for a longer field goal.

I'll start with the field goal. The score was 0-0, and DeSean Jackson had just returned a punt 62 yards into Minnesota territory. The Vikings forced a three-and-out, but there was a holding penalty on Philadelphia on the 3rd down play, an incomplete pass. Rather than give the Eagles a shot at a 3rd and 19, Childress declined the penalty, making it 4th and 9 from the Vikings 26. David Akers nailed a 43-yard field goal and the Eagles took a 3-0 lead.

The criticism is basically that the Vikings should have had more confidence in their defense, and tried to force the Eagles to attempt the kick from further out. This is problematic to me for a few reasons. First, 3rd and 19 is not impossible to get. The Giants converted a 3rd and 21 last week in Vikings territory. Second, a 43-yard field goal is pretty makable for almost all kickers, but Akers is pretty capable of a 53-yarder in a dome, and actually made one from 51 yards later in the game. The major problem is that it is an unnecessary risk. Imagine if the Eagles convert that 3rd and 19? By forcing them to go three-and-out, the Vikings had squashed some momentum. the Eagles had moved the ball well on their first possession, and the Jackson punt return had given them some more juice. Being down 3-0 in the first quarter of a home playoff game is not such a horrible position. On the off-chance that the Eagles convert, suddenly you could be down 7-0 with no momentum. It would be a game-changing moment, one that Childress could not risk at that point in the game. And I think his decision was further justified, not only by Akers' 51-yarder, but also by the the fact that the defense continued to force the Eagles into long 3rd downs and held them to field goals until the Brian Westbrook touchdown.

On to Tarvaris Jackson. My opening disclaimer: I am not going to defend Jackson too much; he was inaccurate, and was very uncomfortable for most of the day. He made some poor decisions, and was unable to get untracked and figure out how to get the ball upfield. That said, his poor play was emblematic of an offense-wide collapse. Everybody knew the Eagles were going to go after Jackson, jut like they go after every quarterback. The Vikings had absolutely no answer for the blitzing. That is why I think the coaching staff is as much to blame for Jackson's poor game as Jackson himself.

Here is one football absolute: The best way to beat any quarterback is to pressure him. Almost no quarterback is successful when he is being rushed and hit often. We saw the Giants shut down the Patriots by getting to Tom Brady early and often in last year's super bowl. We've seen it happen to Peyton Manning, Brett Favre; the list goes on forever. The Eagles were getting Jackson on almost every pass play, and most of the time it was guys coming untouched. No quarterback can be successful in that situation. To make things worse, the Vikings tend to throw from one or two wide receiver formations. There were no open receivers even when the Eagles sent six or seven defenders. How is that possible? Wasn't Childress supposed to be familiar with Jim Johnson?

Jackson showed what I think is his worst attribute: He will try to throw passes even when he is getting hit. almost all of his worst plays in his career have come when he isn't able to step into a throw. The interception taken back for a touchdown by Asante Samuel, which pretty much was the difference in the game, was a perfect example. The play was kind of doomed from the start. Samuel read it immediately, and Rice can sort of a sloppy route; he was somewhere between an out and a comeback. Jackson threw the ball when he shouldn't have, and got hit, all of that adding up to a pass that went directly to Samuel.

Jackson still showed some flashes in this game, despite generally struggling. He can make some crazy throws, and is a very good runner. It is hard to believe that he is not having more success in the league, though we have seen physical potential fail before in this league. the worst thing that happened for Jackson in this game was the second-half play calling. There is no doubt that Childress and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell clammed up in the second half. One of the main reasons I supported Jackson's benching at the start of the year was because it was clear that the Vikings were not calling the game aggressively, and it was clear that the reason for that was Jackson. When he returned to the lineup, the playbook stayed as open as it was with Gus Frerotte. Jackson's best plays were coming on intermediate routes in the middle of the field. We didn't see any of those against Philadelphia. 

I think it is easy to blame the quarterback most of the time, and maybe even right. This time, I think it was an offense-wide problem. There were some positives in the game. Adrian PEterson and Chester Taylor were as effective as they could be, considering the team was down for most of the day, and the Eagles defense played pretty good. Jim Kleinsasser is still the best blocking tight end in the league, and had two nice catches. On defense, Jared Allen was stellar and fill-ins Brian Robison and Ellis Wyms were very good. Jimmy Kennedy might have even earned a chance at the final roster for next season. Cedric Griffin played one of his better games. A disappointing loss, but not a shocker.

The Ravens did exactly what I thought they would to the Dolphins: They physically beat them up, and they took advantage of the huge air-time on all of Chad Pennington's passes. I know he is very accurate and a very steady presence at quarterback, but nobody can get away with those throws against the Ravens defense. Willis McGahee can be frighteningly good at times.

I didn't know the Chargers were capable of the game they played Saturday. They pretty much won in every facet of the game. Take away a couple bad red zone turnovers and that game wouldn't have been close. The Colts sort of did what I expected, holding the ball, converting third downs, but they wore down in the second half. 

I hinted in my last post that maybe the Cardinals should be getting more respect heading into the playoffs. It was a good match up for them, hosting the Falcons, and they took advantage. Matt Ryan played OK, but was not ready for a playoff game. Kurt Warner took advantage of a porous Falcons defense all day. I still like Andre Johnson as the league's best wide receiver, but Larry Fitzgerald is a close second. The ball never touches any part of his body but his hands.

Wild Card Weekend

The 2009 NFL Playoffs are here, and at this point it could be anybody's Super Bowl. The Giants, Titans, and Steelers seem to be the favorites, but there are plenty of worthy participants in this year's field of 12. 

Atlanta at Arizona

At first glance this game seems like an easy one to pick. Atlanta has been one of the more consistent teams in the league this year, and their offense has been close to unstoppable. Arizona, conversely, struggled mightily in the second half of the season, and managed only three wins outside of their division. They are the most one-dimensional team in the league, and their high-powered passing attack will have to face John Abraham this week.

I'll admit, I'm not ready to predict that the Cardinals will win this game. But this could be a very close. Atlanta's defense is really bad. Yes, they can get after the quarterback sometimes, but they give up a lot of yards, and sometimes have had to rely on teams coughing up the ball to end drives. Kurt Warner has played plenty of playoffs games, and Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are ready to go. I think the Cardinals need to continue to give the ball to Edgerrin James, who has come back to life a little the last couple weeks.

Still, Atlanta can control the ball in this game, and assuming Matt Ryan doesn't fall apart, a turnover-free game should be enough for Atlanta to take this one. Falcons 34-28.

Indianapolis at San Diego

The Colts are the best team without a bye in these playoffs. But, they'll be playing on the road probably all the way through. I think this game has the biggest chance of being a blow-out. I see the Colts taking their time moving up and down the field, and their defense bending-but-not-breaking. It is hard not to go with Peyton Manning. Colts 27-13.

Baltimore at Miami

I love watching the Ravens play, and this should be a good match-up for their style of play. If there is one team that won't get flustered by the wild cat offense, it is the Ravens. That said, Miami is another team that has been pretty consistent all year, and always comes ready to play. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown are not going to find much room against the Ravens defense, and Chad Pennington's floaty-but-accurate passes better be even sharper.

Baltimore struggled earlier this year against good teams because they weren't finishing games. They seem to have learned how to do that now. Ask Dallas. I see their running backs pounding the Dolphins defense. Ravens 20-13.

Philadelphia at Minnesota

The Vikings are one of the few teams in the NFL anymore that seems to have a legitimate home-field advantage. When the fans show up, the Metrodome is loud. The key to this game will be whether one or the other jumps out to a big lead. The Vikings haven't really fallen that far behind at all this year, but they play tight when behind. The Eagles have simply been awful when they are losing. 

If Tarvaris Jackson can stay on his feet and find his check-downs, the Vikings might really surprise people on Sunday. The weirdest thing about this game is that the Eagles have become the "dark horse" of this year's playoffs. Every year one team gets a bunch of attention at the last minute, and everybody starts picking them. I'm not sure the Eagles deserve it. If their run-defense has a huge day, they will win. Otherwise, this is a toss-up. Vikings 24-21.

Hypothetical Playoff Predictions that will change with the outcome of this weekend's games

If all of my above picks are right (no chance), here is how I see the rest of the playoffs going:

AFC

The Ravens victory would force them to travel to Tennessee, and the Colts would take on Pittsburgh. I think that would set up a Steelers-Titans rematch in the AFC Championship, and the Steelers would win.

NFC

The six-seed Eagles would completely change the NFC if they got into the second round, but I don't think they will. So, I see Atlanta losing to New York, and Minnesota losing to Carolina. Then the Panthers would go to New York and win that rematch.

I guess at this point predicting the Steelers to beat the Panthers in the Super Bowl seems as safe as possible. That will change in about 48 hours.

Final Rankings

Here are the final NFC North rankings from the "experts". Notice that a few of them only ranked the playoff teams this way. As always, Detroit is #32 in every ranking.

ESPN.com: MIN-10, CHI-15, G.B.-24

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-9

CBS Sports: MIN-10, CHI-18, G.B.-23

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-8, CHI-11, G.B.-18

FOX Sports: MIN-10, CHI-14, G.B.-24

Don Banks (SI.com): MIN-11

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-10