Week 11 Picks

I've been obsessed with Tecmo Super Bowl and the NFL seasons 1988-1992, so I decided to ponder what each of this week's matchups would have been like if the game had been played in the 1990 season.

Miami at Carolina
This is actually a pretty big game—after each team started 0-3, that probably didn't look likely, but now we have a matchup of two of the better running teams in the league. Carolina actually is playing like a team that could make the playoffs. Panthers 24 Dolphins 17

If they played in 1990: The Panthers didn't exist, so I guess Dan Marino would have a bye week.

Washington at Dallas
Washington came up with a big win for the downtrodden team last week, taking advantage of the Chris Simms-led Broncos. Dallas laid a huge egg in Green Bay. Maybe Washington can make things hard on the Cowboys? I'm scared to actually pick them to win though. Cowboys 20 Washington 18

When they played in 1990: The up-and-coming Cowboys actually split the season series with Washington on their way to a 7-9 record, even though Troy Aikman threw four interceptions in the two games.

Cleveland at Detroit
Epic matchup of one-win teams. Cleveland's defense had a nice game against Baltimore on Monday night. Detriot looked like an awful mess against Minnesota. But, the Browns can't score points, so it will be hard to win any games. Lions 24 Browns 12

If they played in 1990: This actually would have been a similarly ugly matchup 19 years ago. After nine games in 1990, these teams had combined for only five wins. Luckily these two teams didn't play that season. The Browns roster actually still had a lot of the guys that had taken them to a bunch of AFC Championships in the 1980s(including the previous season), but they were not producing similar results. They already had 21 turnovers through nine games, and that number sky rocketed in the final seven games (thanks in large part to a nine-turnover game in Pittsburgh). The Lions, meanwhile, gave up 122 or more yards rushing in 14 of 16 games. Wow. Somehow they weren't even last in the league in run defense, though they were last in total defense.

San Francisco at Green Bay
The Packers bounced back in a big way this week, trouncing the Cowboys to get back over .500. But now they will face a 49ers defense that will give Ryan Grant no room to run. As long as Vernon Davis doesn't score 12 touchdowns, the Packers ought to win another tough home game. Packers 17 49ers 13

If they played in 1990: These teams didn't play in 1990, but if they had, it is safe to assume that the 49ers would have crushed them. The Packers followed a suprising 10-6 1989 season with a 6-10 showing in 1990. The offense, with Anthony Dilweg starting seven games, was not especially good, and the defense wasn't any better. The 49ers were 14-2 behind Joe Montana's last full season as a starter for the 49ers, and Jerry Rice's first 100-reception season.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City
The Steelers are sore from their home loss to the Bengals, and this should be a good chance to bounce back against the two-win Chiefs. I don't think Kansas City will let them run away with it though. Steelers 24 Chiefs 14

If they played in 1990: It's too bad that these two teams didn't meet in 1990. The Chiefs had a huge offense: Christian Okoye ran for 805 yards, and Barry Word had 1,015. Five receivers tallied over 40 catches from Steve DeBerg, who had a stunning 23-4 touchdown-interception ratio. The Steelers had the league's number one defense in terms of yardage, and gave up just nine passing touchdowns...and grabbed 24 interceptions, a pretty nice ratio.

Atlanta at NY Giants
The Giants need to win. They haven't since they beat Oakland on October 11. Atlanta needs to beat a good team. They haven't since they beat the Vikings in Week 16 last year. I like the Giants in this one, but it won't be easy. Giants 29 Falcons 27.

If they played in 1990: Fortunately for the 1990 Falcons, they avoided a game against the eventual Super Bowl Champion Giants. Atlanta threw the ball well, mostly Chris Miller to Andre Rison, but managed to lose seven straight games, none by more than 12 points (though they turned the ball over 20 times during that stretch). The Giants were 13-3, largely thanks to a defense that ranked 4th against the run and 6th against the pass.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
The Saints could use a breather. They are straping by against teams that they should be beating easily. The Buccaneers have played two good games with Josh Freeman at the helm, and might be able to ride that and their home crowd to an upset...but they won't. Saints 34 Buccaneers 26

When they played in 1990: The 3-5 Saints crushed the 4-5 Buccaneers 35-7. The Bucs actually led 7-0 after a 12-yard Chris Chandler touchdown run. Then the Saints scored 35 unanswered points, with four rushing TDs by Rueben Mayes and Craig Hayward. Neither team finished with a winning record. All very forgettable.

Buffalo at Jacksonville
The Bills made a big move by firing Dick Jauron (the week after their bye for some reason). The move can't hurt them too much, since Jauron wasn't exactly an inspiring force in Buffalo. Hopefully they come out fired up, and not hung over. Bills 16 Jaguars 13

1990: The Jags didn't exist!

Indianapolis at Baltimore
The Colts used to play in Baltimore, and the Ravens used to be the Browns. The Ravens got a week off to stomp on the hapless Browns. Their defense better call back some of that old Ravens-magic, because, as we know, the Colts win a lot. Colts 34 Ravens 33

If they played in 1990: The Colts and Browns didn't play, sadly. Basically read the above about a Browns-Lions matchup, and apply here. The Colts were 27th in offense, 26 in defense, but managed to win seven games, going 5-3 in the second half of the season.

Seattle at Minnesota
The Seahawks are still barely alive in the NFC playoff race (and the NFC West division title race, actually). Unless the Vikings offense completely falls apart, it is hard to see Seattle winning. Vikings 28 Seahawks 17

When they played in 1990: The Vikings beat Seattle 24-21 in Week 11, just before the Seahawks won five of their last six to finish 9-7. Minnesota score the final 10 points in the game, wrapping up the win on a 24-yard Fuad Reveiz field goal. Here is a preview of the game from the Seattle Times, in which Gil Lyons warns the Seahawks to watch out for the Vikings running game and defensive end Chris Doleman. The Vikings ran OK, and neither team threw very well, but the Vikings had only one sack.

Arizona at St. Louis
The Rams nearly upset the Saints, and following that, one might expect them to pull the same trick on the Cardinals. But I think the Cardinals know them well enough not to take this game lightly (they've beaten St. Louis five straight times), plus they need to continue to put distance between themselves and the 49ers and Seahawks. Cardinals 27 Rams 14

If they played in 1990: Back then, the Rams played in Los Angeles and the Cardinals, who had just moved from St. Louis, were called the Phoenix Cardinals. The Cardinals and Rams finished with the same record in 1990: 5-11. Both had very bad defenses, but the Rams and Jim Everett threw the ball pretty well. I think the Rams would have pulled this one out.

NY Jets at New England
The Patriots don't lose two consecutive games. They just don't. What terrible justification. Really, it's because Mark Sanchez is going to implode early. Patriots 30 Jets 10

When they played in 1990: You know you are bad when you finish five games behind a division rival...and that division rival is only 6-10. That's what the 1990 Patriots did, going 1-15 and doing so in style: They fielded the 3rd worst offense in the league, and ranked 27th on defense, with a final point differential of -265. The Jets were major contributors to that differential, winning 37-13 and 42-7 against the Pats.

Cincinnati at Oakland
The Bengals might have a little let down coming off their huge win over Pittsburgh, but that won't be enough for Oakland to win. Bengals 20 Raiders 7

When they played in 1990: The Raiders dominated the Bengals 24-7 to improve to 10-4 and seemingly ending the Bengals playoff hopes, dropping them to 7-7. But, the Bengals won their final two games and beat Houston in the AFC Wildcard round, earning themselves a date in the divisional round with...the Raiders. And, the second time around, the Raiders won again, this time 20-10. The Raiders ran for 480 yards in the two games. Wow.

San Diego at Denver
With Chris Simms at the helm, the Broncos can't win this game. At least, I don't think so. Chargers 27 Broncos 17

When they played in 1990: The Chargers and Broncos split the season series in 1990. Neither made the playoffs.

Philadelphia at Chicago
Jay Cutler can't keep throwing so many interceptions if the Bears hope to win any games. The Bears actually seem to respond OK after big let downs; they'll need to this week. Eagles 34 Bears 24

If they played in 1990: Sadly, no Eagles-Bears game in 1990 took place. Buddy Ryan had left the Bears after the 1985 Super Bowl season, and built the league's best defense in Philadelphia. The Eagles lost in their first playoff game after going 10-6. The Bears were the only NFC Central team not to finish 6-10, and they won a home playoff game agaisnt New Orleans before being crushed by the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants.

Tennessee at Houston
The Texans have a chance to fully assert themselves in the AFC Wildcard race, but the Titans bring in a three-game winning streak. I don't like testing fate; vince Young can't have four straight good games, right? Texans 30 Titans 20

If they played in 1990: Unfortunately, the Texans did not exist. Err...is that unfortunate? Oh, and the Titans were the Oilers, but whatever.

Week 9 Picks

Washington at Atlanta
The Falcons can't seem to beat the league's best teams, but they do play a consistent and solid brand of football. Washington is the opposite. Falcons 27 Washington 13

Arizona at Chicago
The Cardinals rely on one stat: Kurt Warner's interceptions. In games they have lost he throws a lot. The Bears need to find a way to move the ball on the ground, which they haven't really done. Arizona is 8th in the league in run defense. Cardinals 24 Bears 17

Baltimore at Cincinnati
The Ravens got back on track last week by dominating the Broncos. This could be the best game of the week, and I expect the Ravens to avenge their Week 5 loss at home to the Bengals. Ravens 27 Bengals 17

Houston at Indianapolis
The Colts quietly have put together one of the better defenses in the NFL. When the Texans can run the ball (without fumbling, Steve Slaton), they have one of the league's best offenses. I like Payton Manning to continue to roll. Colts 30 Texans 24

Miami at New England
New England was the first victim of the Wildcat in 2008. The Dolphins made the Patriots old linebackers look ancient on the way to a 38-13 win in New England. Two months later in Miami the Patriots gave up just 66 yards rushing, and racked up 48 points and over 500 yards of offense in a 48-28 win. My guess is that this week's game will settle somewhere between those extremes, and Tom Brady will be the difference. Patriots 27 Dolphins 23

Green Bay at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers will wear those old white/creamsicle uniforms, and just in time! The Buccaneers were famously bad for most of their history while wearing the creamsicle outfit, and in 2009 they've returned to the NFL cellar. The Packers need a pick-me-up after the Vikings (and Brent) completely a season sweep up in Lambeau. Packers 31 Bucs 13

Kansas City at Jacksonville
Maybe the toughest game of the week. The Jags swing violently from competent to horrendous, and the Chiefs play the most spirited losing football we've seen in years. Jaguars 20 Chiefs 13

Carolina at New Orleans
The Panthers, as a team, probably aren't as bad as their 3-4 record, but their quarterback certainly is. Jake Delhomme had a better game last week against Arizona, but the Saints, who have intercepted everybody this year, must be chomping at the bit. Saints 28 Panthers 14

Detroit at Seattle
The Lions stink. Seahawks 27 Lions 19

Tennessee at San Francisco
The Titans finally logged a victory. San Francisco's defense is going to make Tennessee look really bad. As long as Alex Smith plays OK, the 49ers should control this one from start to finish. 49ers 17 Titans 9

San Diego at NY Giants
Yes, we remember that San Diego drafted Eli Manning, then had to trade him to the Giants. Blah, blah, blah. This is a real toss up to me: Chargers 27 Giants 26

Dallas at Philadelphia
Another toughy. The absolute worst time to pick Dallas is when they are hot. They are extremely hot right now. The Eagles reliance on big plays probably won't be exposed against the Cowboys, but I like Dallas; the Cowboys can play a little ball-control and rack up a lot of yards against Philly's so-so defensive front. Cowboys 28 Eagles 21

Pittsburgh at Denver
I really don't want to pick this game. I don't think Denver can move the ball against Pittsburgh. But I also think Denver will keep it close. I guess I'll fall back on Ben Roethlisberger. Steelers 23 Broncos 20, OT.

Week 8 Picks Revisited

This week I got 8 greens and 10 of 13 winners correct.

Prediction: Texans 24 Bills 16
Actual: Texans 31 Bills 10
The weather ended up being a non-factor, and the Texans pulled away from the Bills after a terrible fake punt by Buffalo.

Prediction: Bears 27 Browns 17
Actual: Bears 30 Browns 6
Initially, it looked like Chicago would let the Browns hang around--their first three trips into the red zone netted just 9 points--but the Bears pulled away and stayed up big.

Prediction: Cowboys 30 Seahawks 24
Actual: Cowboys 38 Seahawks 17
Tony Romo had another really good game. If he keeps this up, the Cowboys are a real threat in the NFC.

Prediction: Rams 20 Lions 19
Actual: Rams 17 Lions 10
Not pretty at all, but the Rams finally get a win.

Prediction: Ravens 27 Broncos 24
Actual: Ravens 30 Broncos 7
I wasn't expecting the Ravens to have a safe lead the entire game. A huge win for Baltimore in the crowded AFC North

Prediction: Colts 28 49ers 14
Actual: Colts 18 49ers 14
The 49ers defense really stepped up, but the Colts are just too persistent. Even when you contain them, they score enough points to win.

Prediction: Dolphins 31 Jets 20
Actual: Dolphins 30 Jets 25
The Jets didn't do a bad job against Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown, but their special teams completely blew this one.

Prediction: Giants 30 Eagles 20
Actual: Eagles 40 Giants 17
The Giants couldn't stop the big play, and we know that is how the Eagles like to win. What is the deal with DeSean Jackson?

Prediction: Titans 20 Jaguars 13
Actual: Titans 30 Jaguars 13
Jeff Fisher is too good a coach to let the Titans fall to 0-7 against another cellar-dweller like the Jags. Or something like that. Nice, solid game for Vince Young.

Prediction: Chargers 27 Raiders 7
Actual: Chargers 24 Raiders 16
Why can't the Chargers put the Raiders away? Both times this season they've let the Raiders keep to close to the end.

Prediction: Cardinals 24 Panthers 14
Actual: Panthers 34 Cardinals 21
The Panthers are officially the least-predictable team in the league, and the Cardinals are a close second.

Prediction: Vikings 31 Packers 30
Actual: Vikings 38 Packers 26
The Packers had a chance in the second half, but Brett Favre put them away...just like he used to do when he was their quarterback!

Prediction: Falcons 27 Saints 21
Actual: Saints 35 Falcons 27
The Falcons were a team of extremes last night. Make an amazing play to intercept Drew Brees, throw it right to Jabari Greer. Jump on Brees before he can even complete his drop one pay, give him five seconds to throw the next. Neither team played good run defense, but the Saints defensive touchdowns are barely a fluke anymore. How many is that? 17 already?

Week 8 Predictions

Houston at Buffalo

The weather is going to be a factor, but if Matt Schaub can avoid Jarius Byrd, the Texans should be OK.
Texans 24 Bills 16

Cleveland at Chicago

Coming off an embarrassing loss against Cincinnati, the Bears get a chance to right the ship. The Browns shouldn't present much of a problem.
Bears 27 Browns 17

Seattle at Dallas
With any luck, the Cowboys understand the importance of running the ball, especially since they do it as well as anybody. But, would we be shocked if they followed Tony Romo's huge game last week against Atlanta by ignoring the run? I still think they will win.
Cowboys 30 Seahawks 24

St. Louis at Detroit

The Rams get their first win of the season...maybe? The Lions cannot stop the pass, and Mar Bulger is capable of making big plays with his arm. I guess that's all I have to go on.
Rams 20 Lions 19

Denver at Baltimore
This is a great match-up. The Ravens are desperate for a win, and both teams are coming off their byes. Even though I think the Broncos are a very solid and balanced team, I think the Ravens will find a way to win (Joe Flacco).
Ravens 27 Broncos 24

San Francisco at Indianapolis

This might have been a chance to try an upset pick. But I just don't believe that the 49ers can keep the Colts offense at bay for more than a quarter or two.
Colts 28 49ers 14

Miami at NY Jets

I'm sure the Jets will come up with a better game plan this time around, and will do a better job against the Wildcat, but Mark Sanchez will hold them back.
Dolphins 31 Jets 20

NY Giants at Philadelphia

I like the Giants to hold off the Eagles offensive attack, and pull away late.
Giants 30 Eagles 20

Jacksonville at Tennessee

This is a hard one. Vince Young is finally starting. The Jaguars are terrible. The Titans are terrible...
Titans 20 Jaguars 13

Oakland at San Diego

Big day for Phillip Rivers.
Chargers 27 Raiders 7

Carolina at Arizona

This was a huge playoff game last season, when Jake Delhomme turned the ball over 45 times and the Cardinals crushed the Panthers. Kurt Warner is playing better, and the Cardinals defense has been surprisingly stingy lately.
Cardinals 24 Panthers 14

Minnesota at Green Bay
Aaron Rodgers will put up big numbers, and Brett Favre will have to lead the Vikings to a 4th quarter comeback.
Vikings 31 Packers 30

Atlanta at New Orleans
I've decided to stubborning pick against the Saints until I am finally right.
Falcons 27 Saints 21

Week 7 Predictions

Green Bay @ Cleveland
The Browns are sick. I'm not sure it makes a difference whether they are sick or recovered or OK. Their only bet is too run the ball and keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. Packers 27 Browns 13

San Diego @ Kansas City
The Chiefs will likely be pesky, but the Chargers are good enough to hold them off. It is always weird when great players of the near past (Ladainian Tomlinson) become sort of inconsequential. Chargers 21 Chiefs 16

Indianapolis @ St. Louis
The Rams really are not capable of staying with good teams. There is no reason why the Colts shouldn't blow them out. Colts 34 Rams 13

Minnesota @ Pittsburgh
I can't pick against the Vikings can I? I really think Ben Roethlisberger will have a big day. Plus, Pittsburgh is generally pretty clutch on offense in the 4th quarter. But, both defenses have struggled in 4th quarters this season, Brett Favre is as likely to throw the last touchdown in this game as Roethlisberger is. Vikings 28 Steelers 27

New England @ Tampa Bay
We've learned not to get caught up in the Patriots the last two seasons; they have had trouble maintaining momentum from week to week. But, if Brady is indeed 'back,' the Buccaneers are in trouble. Patriots 31 Buccaneers 17

San Francisco @ Houston
This could be another one of the Texans let downs. They have a knack for losing just when they appear to be on the cusp of a winning streak. The 49ers certainly will challenge them, but San Francisco can't really score. Texans 24 49ers 17

Buffalo @ Carolina
The Panthers finally won a couple, but they haven't looked good doing it. The Bills had six interceptions last week, and I expect a couple more against Jake Delhomme. Bills 17 Panthers 13

NY Jets @ Oakland
The Raiders inability to get into the end zone will sink them, even though Mark Sanchez will give them the ball a couple times. Jets 20 Raiders 12

Atlanta @ Dallas
The Cowboys and Falcons are somewhat similar teams, though the Falcons seem to play a little more consistently. Both can play decent defense at times, and both are capable of putting up a lot of points. I think the Falcons will keep up their level-headedness, and Tony Romo will blow it. Falcons 27 Cowboys 20

Chicago @ Cincinnati
The Bears are showing a startling ability to keep games extremely close, despite hardly ever scoring touchdowns. The Bengals defense didn't play well against Houston, but they should get a few chances to pick Jay Cutler off. Bengals 17 Bears 10

New Orleans @ Miami
It's time for me to pick a real upset. The Saints passing offense can be slowed down (two AFC East opponents have showed that), and the Dolphins are very good at keeping their offense on the field. If Drew Brees makes any mistakes, I think the Dolphins will capitalize. Dolphins 20 Saints 17

Arizona @ NY Giants
This one will come down to the Giants red zone defense. I see them forcing a lot of field goal attempts, and scoring just enough to take home the victory. Giants 27 Cardinals 23

Philadelphia @ Washington
The Eagles were embarrassed last week by the Raiders, but Washington probably won't present a similar road bump. More Todd Collins, please! Eagles 30 Washington 17

Week Six Predictions

Houston at Cincinnati
As inconsistent as the Texans are, it is hard to pin down how they will play on the road against Cincinnati. I expect the Bengals to continue their stout defensive play, and to score enough on Houston's poor defense to win.
Bengals 23 Texans 13

Detroit at Green Bay
Although the Lions could score a lot in this game, that hasn't led to success for them so far this year. The Packers have to win this divisional home game, or else things could get pretty ugly for them. Most importantly, the Packers are better than the Lions, and should exploit a bad secondary.
Packers 34 Lions 21

Baltimore at Minnesota
If the Vikings can throw against Baltimore, they should win. If Baltimore can throw against Minnesota, they should win. My guess is that both quarterbacks (assuming the Ravens don't knock Brett Favre out) will have pretty good games. It's a toss up. I'm going with the Vikings great red zone defense.
Vikings 27 Ravens 23

NY Giants at New Orleans
The big question is whether the Giants can move the ball against a good defense. Or maybe the real question is whether the Saints actually have a good defense? We know the Giants do, and if the Saints are not able to jump out to an early lead, as they have all season, will the defense still look as dangerous? I think not. If this comes down to a physical, ball control, who-can-outlast-the-other type of game, I have to go with the Giants.
Giants 20 Saints 17

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Get one defender back, lose another. The Steelers really shouldn't have any trouble this week.
Steelers 31 Browns 6

Carolina at Tampa Bay
Although Tampa Bay is awful, and the Panthers could roll up a big win on Sunday, I think the Buccaneers will play OK at home, and keep it close.
Panthers 19 Buccaneers 13

Kansas City at Washington
A real head scratcher, here. Although Washington is the most unreliable team in the league (two years running), the Chiefs seem to only muster up that special bend-bend-bend-break style of keeping games close at home. So, I guess I have to pick Washington.
Washington 24 Chiefs 21

St. Louis at Jacksonville
If the Rams are going to win a game this year, Jacksonville seems like their best opportunity. The Rams played pretty decent run defense against Minnesota, so let's not assume Maurice Jones-Drew will have a huge day. Still, I think even Jacksonville's bad offense can move the ball against the Rams.
Jaguars 24 Rams 13

Arizona at Seattle
If this game was at Arizona, I might flip-flop. But the Seahawks have some confidence now with Matt Hasselbeck back in the lineup. And their defense isn't too bad.
Seahawks 28 Cardinals 21

Philadelphia at Oakland
Eagles 34 Raiders 17

Tennessee at New England
New England, at home, against an 0-5 team? Used to be automatic, but now the Patriots will have to work a little hard than we're used to--in order to win by double digits.
Patriots 31 Titans 17

Buffalo at NY Jets
I don't think the Bills will play a third consecutive awful game. They've shown year in and year out that one thing they are not is consistently good or bad. I think they will show up this week, and lose. I don't buy into the idea that Rex Ryan will light a fire under his team just because they lost one game.
Jets 27 Bills 20

Chicago at Atlanta
Last year the Bears shocked the Falcons by scoring late and seemingly stealing a win from the Falcons with under 30 seconds remaining. Then the Falcons hit a field goal as time expired in one of the wildest finishes of the 2008 season. This time, I think Atlanta plays a steadier game, and out duels Jay Cutler's Bears.
Falcons 30 Bears 24

Denver at San Diego
After watching the Broncos come back to beat the Patriots last week, I feel like they are more than for real--they are one of the better teams in the league. So, I will not begin picking them to win, and likely be wrong more than right.
Broncos 17 Chargers 16

Week 5 Predictions Revisited

I decided it is time to follow up on these random, poorly considered predictions. I even made a color-code. Red means I was flat wrong, orange means I got the winner, but the score was a bit off, and green means I was mostly right. With Week 5 complete, I have six out of 14 in the green and four more orange. The four red doesn't look very good.

Prediction: Bills 23 Browns 16
Reality: Browns 6 Bills 3
I figured the Bills would be able to score. They didn't. Another special teams blunder finally sunk them, but with or without it, this was an awful day.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 Chiefs 13
Reality: Cowboys 26 Chiefs 20 OT
This game was a little closer than expected, though I didn't see the Chiefs taking it into overtime. The Cowboys have to be a little worried about how difficult it has been to get to 3-2. Side note: The Chiefs helmets were really cool. Apparently, that was the first time they have worn anything but their normal helmets since the mid-1970s. Wow.

Prediction: Vikings 30 Rams 24
Reality: 38-10
I underestimated how bad the Rams could be. They moved the ball fairly easily, but committed three turnovers in the red zone. the Vikings got a lot of breaks in this game; it could have been a lot closer.

Prediction: Giants 27 Raiders 14
Reality: Giants 44-7
OK, I didn't get the full blowout correct. I figured that with Eli Manning playing hurt the Giants would scale it back a little. Wrong.

Prediction: Eagles 38 Buccaneers 17
Reality: Eagles 33 Buccaneers 14
This one went almost exactly as expected. Can't give myself much credit, I think everybody got this one right.

Prediction: Steeler 31 Lions 24
Reality: Steelers 28 Lions 20
The Lions offense can move the ball, and they've proved that every game so far. Unfortunately, when they needed a big play, Daunte Culpepper was sacked three plays in a row.

Prediction: Panthers 19 Washington 13
Reality: Panthers 20 Washington 17
To nobody's surprise, this was an ugly game. No stats really pop out, but once again Jason Campbell can't get the win.

Prediction: Ravens 24 Bengals 14
Reality: Bengals 17 Ravens 14
The Bengals are good. Cedric Benson is having a very good season. The Ravens are reeling a little, but Minnesota should expect a real fight next week.

Prediction: 49ers 17 Falcons 7
Reality: Falcons 45 49ers 10
Probably my worst pick of the week. I was completely wrong about the 49ers defense. They gave up a bunch of big plays, and the rest of the team kept coughing up the ball.

Prediction: Seahawks 24 Jaguars 20
Reality: Seahawks 41 Jaguars 0
It turns out that the Jaguars went very quietly. What a difference Matt Hasselbeck makes. None of the running backs had a big day, but the committee produced a nice game.

Prediction: Cardinals 34 Texans 28
Reality: Cardinals 28 Texans 21.
After jumping out to a 21-0 lead, the Cardinals needed an interception for a touchdown and a goal line stand with under a minute to pull this off. Both offenses did their part, but Matt Schaub made the error that cost the Texans.

Prediction: Patriots 20 Broncos 6
Reality: Broncos 20 Patriots 17 OT
This one looked good at halftime, with the Pats leading 17-7. Then the Broncos shut them out in the second half and Kyle Orton completed a lot (35 for the game) passes. Yep, they're for real.

Prediction: Colts 27 Titans 13
Reality: Colts 31 Titans 9
I'm leaving this one in the orangecategory simply because I really didn't think it would be a blow out. I thought the Titans would keep it close into the 4th quarter before the Colts closed the door.

Prediction: Dolphins 16 Jets 13
Reality: Dolphins 31 Jets 27
A half hour before the game started, I was listening to Cris Carter go on about how the Jets would stop the Wildcat and how Rex Ryan proved he had a scheme for it last year, when the Ravens crushed the Dolphins in the opening round of the playoffs. Well, he was wrong. The Dolphins are the only team so far who has consistently moved the ball against the Jets, and they did it, surprise, with the Wildcat. If Chad Henne continues to build on what he has done in his first two starts, the Dolphins may have the most promising young quarterback in the league.

Week 5

Cleveland at Buffalo
The Bills have to win this week to hold on to any hope. At home against the Browns, they should be OK. Marshawn Lynch didn't look excellent, but he adds another threat to the Bills offense. Bills 23 Browns 16

Dallas at Kansas City: One of this year's AFL 50th Anniversary games. The Chiefs will be wearing throwback uniforms from when they were the...Dallas Texans. Aside from the fact that the Cowboys, who apparently will be wearing their regular get-up, were never in the AFL (not to mentioned that the Chiefs will be playing a home game with the state of Texas on their heads--against the Dallas Cowboys), I think these throwback games are pretty cool. I guess Tony Romo will play OK. Cowboys 27 Chiefs 13.

Minnesota at St. Louis
No team in the last ten years has been worse at taking care of bad teams than the Vikings. Many think this is a prime spot for the Vikings to collapse (Michael Silver among them, scroll down). I don't think the Vikings will crush the Rams, as they should, but they will win. Vikings 30 Rams 24.

Oakland at NY Giants
I really don't think Eli Manning should play in this game. A few reasons: the inflamed tissue in his right foot; the Giants 4-0 record; the site of the game; the fact that the Raiders are awful. Give him some time off. Let that foot heal a little. Beat the Raiders by ten instead of 20. OK, fine, so no win is guaranteed in the NFL. I don't care, sit him. Giants 27 Raiders 14.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia
With or without Donovan McNabb, this should be a rout. Eagles 38 Buccaneers 17.

Pittsburgh at Detroit
Despite the Chargers 4th quarter comeback, Pittsburgh Sunday night win was pretty impressive. I actually think Daunte Culpepper can make some plays for the Lions, but I don't think they can win this game. Steeler 31 Lions 24.

Washington at Carolina
As bad as Carolina has played, what a great sight it must be to see Washington in town. Unless Jason Campbell plays like Mark Rypien, Washington is never a safe pick. Panthers 19 Washington 13.

Cincinnati at Baltimore
Maybe the best game of the week, especially if you like defense. Cincinnati did a good job against Gren Bay and Pittsburgh, but the Ravens (weird) bring a more balanced attack on offense. In this match up of strength vs. strength, I think all of Baltimore's strengths are stronger than Cincinnati's. Ravens 24 Bengals 14.

Atlanta at San Francisco
Atlanta is an interesting team. They are balanced on offense, and seem to come to play every single week. But San Francisco's defense will shut them down, and I don't think there is a reliable Plan B in Atlanta. 49ers 17 Falcons 7.

Jacksonville at Seattle
Matt Hasselbeck pretty much has to play this week. If Seattle falls to 1-4...well, we know what that means. Jacksonville is 2-2 (somehow), and won't go quietly. Seahawks 24 Jaguars 20.

Houston at Arizona
Which offense will take advantage of which defense? Maybe both, but, at home, the Cardinals contained the Colts for a little while, and they should move the ball fairly easily against Houston's defense. Cardinals 34 Texans 28.

New England at Denver
This another AFL Anniversary game. The Patriots will wear the road version of the 'Pat Patriot' uniforms we saw on Monday Night Football in Week 1. The Broncos will wear these. I think, like most, that the Broncos magical ride will begin a slow and painful descent this week. Patriots 20 Broncos 6.

Indianapolis at Tennessee
This was supposed to be a compelling game, because the Titans weren't supposed to be 0-4. It could still be a good game, if the Tennessee defense can get things straight. Colts 27 Titans 13.

NY Jets at Miami
The other Jets-Dolphins game will feature the AFL throwbacks, so I guess this one is just about football. I'm not sold on the Dolphins being out of it yet. If their wildcat and run-oriented offense can offset some of the Jets blitzing success, they might out score the inconsistent Jets offense. Dolphins 16 Jets 13.

Predicting Week 4

Why are there bye weeks already in Week 4? They shouldn't start until at least Week 6.


Detroit at Chicago
With a win and a Packers loss, the Lions could be tied for second place in the NFC North at the end of Week 4. That would still be last place in the division, but how great would that feel for a team that has been dead last since...what feels like forever. If the Bears on-and-off run defense is off this week, the Lions might win this one. I like Jay Cutler to keep the turnovers down and have another solid 4th quarter. Bears 20 Lions 15.

Cincinnati at Cleveland
The Bengals defense is looking tough, and the Browns are awful. Derek Anderson is back under center, but that won't be enough. Bengals 20 Browns 6.

Seattle at Indianapolis
The Seahawks have a strange advantage over many NFL teams. Because Matt Hasselbeck has missed so many games the last couple years, Seneca Wallace has played a lot. They are one of the few teams that isn't doomed when the second quarterback has to start. Still, the Colts are home are almost a lock against a team like Seattle, Hasselbeck or not. Colts 31 Seahawks 20.

NY Giants at Kansas City
The Giants dominated an awful Tampa Bay team last week, and should follow the same script in Kansas City. If they do, they'll win easy. Remember Larry Johnson? Giants 28 Chiefs 13

Baltimore at New England
Baltimore is playing the best football of any team in the NFL. New England has sneeked away from three so-so games with a 2-1 record. This one will probably come down to whether Joe Flacco is successful throwing the ball; I don't think Flacco will be successful throwing the ball. Patriots 20 Ravens 17.

Tampa Bay at Washington
This is one ugly matchup. Tampa Bay is arguably the worst team in the league, and Washington plays like they can't wait for games to be over. Washington 17 Buccaneers 9.

Tennessee at Jacksonville
Tennessee absolutely has to win this week. That alone doesn't mean they will. Kerry Collins need to go back managing games--and doing it well--before Tennessee can turn this season around. Titans 30 Jaguars 17.

Oakland at Houston
Houston as been all over the place through three weeks. The Raiders have mostly just been bad. I'll assume that Matt Schaub will have a decent game. Texans 24 Raiders 10.

NY Jets at New Orleans
This is a huge game for two 3-0 teams. The Jets will have to "prove it" all season long; nobody is going to give them the benefit of the doubt with a rookie quarterback. If Drew Brees can beat the blitz, this will get ugly. The Saints defense is good enough to keep the Jets offense in check. Saints 28 Jets 16.

Buffalo at Miami
Chad Henne strikes fear into the hearts of nobody. Buffalo's pass rush has been very good, and now they will have two very good running backs to help Trent Edwards. Bills 27 Dolphins 20.

St. Louis at San Francisco
The 49ers are going to be talked about a lot in the next few seasons. They will likely take over the "team that is just a quarterback away." I like their run defense, I like their secondary, and obviously Patrick Willis is amazing. This is used to be a great rivalry, but it has been too long since both reams were relevant at the same time. 49ers 21 Rams 7.

Dallas at Denver
Denver may be a mirage right now, but Dallas can't be counted on for anything. Sure, their Monday night victory over Carolina was nice, but we can't be too quick to forget their Sunday night loss to the Giants in Week 2. Dallas tends to drift back towards that Week 2 team, the one that can score a lot, but not when they need to, and gives up way too many yards and points. If they keep running like they have been, maybe they can smooth out the wild inconsistency. Cowboys 31 Broncos 21.

San Diego at Pittsburgh
It's official. Losing Troy Polamalu was huge. With a defense as good as they've been, one wouldn't think they would lose games with Polamalu out. The Chargers might be better than I give them credit for. We'll see. Chargers 27 Steelers 17.

Green Bay at Minnesota
Forget all the Favre crap. This would have been a big either way. The Vikings have a chance to go to 4-0 and 2-0 against the NFC North. If the Packers 3-4 is effective against Adrian Peterson, they will win. Vikings 30 Packers 27.

Predicting 2009

I did something I have never done before: Printed out an the entire NFL schedule for 2009, and predicted the winner for every single game. Thus, I arrived at the following predictions. I want to point out that doing it this way, while very precise and much more accurate, leds things to get a bit skewed. Had I just come up with records off the top of my head, surely the Eagles, Dolphins, and Ravens would not have racked up so many wins. But I'll stand by this tally.

AFC East

New England 13-3

Miami 12-4

Buffalo 6-10

New York 4-12

AFC North

Baltimore 12-4

Pittsburgh 10-6

Cincinnati 8-8

Cleveland 4-12

AFC South

Houston 10-6

Indianapolis 9-7

Jacksonville 8-8

Tennessee 8-8

AFC West

San Diego 10-6

Kansas City 5-11

Denver 3-13

Oakland 3-13

NFC East

Philadelphia 13-3

New York 10-6

Dallas 8-7

Washington 7-9

NFC North

Minnesota 11-5

Chicago 9-7

Green Bay 8-8

Detroit 4-12

NFC South

Atlanta 10-6

New Orleans 10-6

Carolina 8-8

Tampa Bay 4-12

NFC West

Seattle 10-6

Arizona 8-8

San Francisco 6-10

St. Louis 5-11

AFC Wildcard

San Diego over Miami

Pittsburgh over Houston

AFC Divisional

Baltimore over San Diego

New England over Pittsburgh

AFC Championship

New England over Baltimore

NFC Wildcard

New Orleans over Atlanta

New York over Seattle

NFC Divisional

Minnesota over New Orleans

New York over Philadelphia

NFC Championship

Minnesota over New York

Super Bowl

New England over Minnesota

*Note that the NFC Playoffs are eerily similar to the 2000 NFC Playoffs. A coincidence, for sure.