Slimfit, Make It Worse

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Week 13

Tennessee at Detroit: The Lions probably should not be in this game after the first quarter, but one never knows. Here's guessing that if they come out with some Thanksgiving energy, it will be gone by the second half. Titans 27-17.

Seattle at Dallas: The Cowboys might be getting back on track. This home game will help. Cowboys 31-17.

Arizona at Philadelphia: It is really hard to predict a turnaround in Philly this week. Safe bet: Cardinals 28-20.

San Francisco at Buffalo: San Francisco looks really bad against quality teams. Buffalo is just below that quality line, but they should win Sunday. Bills 21-20.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: I still like the way Cincinnati has shown up to play every week, even if they are 1-9-1. But Baltimore's defense is still nasty, and Joe Flacco can win on the road this week. Ravens 20-10.

Indianapolis at Cleveland: The Colts are back, 27-13.

Carolina at Green Bay: This might be an OK match-up for Green Bay. Carolina's passing game has been wretched of late. Carolina should be able to run the ball and control the clock though. Panthers 20-17.

Miami at St. Louis: St. Louis is playing so bad lately, they are due for a decent game. Miami 20-14.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: I love this match-up. In Week 1 Drew Brees threw the ball all over against Tampa, and New Orleans won 24-20. I like Tampa's defense against the inconsistent Saints. Bucs 24-20.

New York Giants at Washington: Washington is not convincing me that they are a playoff-worthy team. Giants 24-17.

Atlanta at San Diego: San Diego has played every game close, but this week I like the rock-steady Falcons, 20-16.

Pittsburgh at New England: This is a tough one. The Patriots of old would have snuffed out this version of the Steelers. But the Pittsburgh D (number one against rush and pass) might be able to rattle Matt Cassel. Still, Pats, 20-13.

Denver at New York Jets: Safe pick, again: Jets 34-28.

Kansas City at Oakland: Great match-up... Chiefs 21-18.

Chicago at Minnesota: The winner of this game has no excuse for not winning the division, especially if Green Bay loses Sunday. Vikings 23-20.

Jacksonville at Houston: Who cares? Texans 21-14.

Week 12 Rankings

1. New York Giants: They just keep on rolling, and beating quality teams in the process. Their next three games are all against NFC East teams. It is possible they will win the division during that stretch, but they might get their second loss either at Washington or at Dallas.

2. Tennessee Titans: The loss won't hurt them in the long run. They will win the division in the coming weeks, when they play at Detroit, host Cleveland, and then go to Houston. They finish with Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, but might have home-field wrapped up by then.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: New England, Dallas, Baltimore, Tennessee. They will win at least two of these games, but man that is a tough stretch.

4. New York Jets: I will finally put them in the mix up here. Brett Favre has been protecting the ball the last few weeks. If they keep playing this way there is no reason why they can't run the table (DEN, at SF, BUF, at Sea, MIA).

5. New England Patriots: I like this team. Even with Matt Cassel at quarterback, they have a ton of weapons, and their defense is pretty tough.

14. Minnesota Vikings: A nice win for the Vikings, but they will have to be able to throw the ball down the stretch.

15. Chicago Bears: A nice win for the Bears, but they are going to have to beat a quality team at some point.

20. Green Bay Packers: A terrible loss for the Packers. Their biggest strength got dominated. 

28. Seattle Seahawks: Playing better with Matt Hasselbeck, but they are bad.

29. Cincinnati Bengals: Ok, so they play hard every week. Win a game once in a while though.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Same as above.

31. St. Louis Rams: They look real real bad lately.

32. Detroit Lions

Chicago got a few 15's and minnesota got two 11's and two 16's. Everybody has Green Bay as the third best in the NFC North. Check out Vinnie Iyer from the Sporting News, giving Detroit some respect.

ESPN.com: CHI-15, MIN-17, G.B.-20

CBS Sports: CHI-16, MIN-17, G.B.-19

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-11, CHI-15, G.B.-18

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-11, CHI-12, G.B.-13

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): CHI-15, MIN-16, G.B.-17, DET-31 (He has St. Louis at 32.)

FOX Sports: CHI-15, MIN-16, G.B.-18

Wrong Again

Incredibly, I was mostly correct on my Week 12 predictions. 12 of 15 right so far. And who would have guessed Oakland would crush Denver? 

I'll skip trying to explain myself, since I didn't get to watch any of the three games I got wrong. A quick recap: The Jets beat Tennessee 34-13. I've been very hesitant to give the Jets any credit. They now deserve it, probably did before, too. Cleveland beat Houston 16-6 in a game that wasn't that important, and I was clueless about. I don't feel bad about it. And, as I said, Oakland beat Denver 31-10 in a game where the Raiders attempted only 12 passes.

Moving on, if you know me at all, you know that I hate Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback column (and read it every week). Strangely, King has a ton of Mike Tice info sprinkled throughout this week's version. Not important. He also has Kurt Warner leading the NFL MVP race. Uhhh...

The most interesting part was his analysis of the Buccaneers having Adrian Peterson "figured out." King picked the brain of the ageless Derrick Brooks. Referring back to Buc's Week 11 19-13 win over Minnesota, King says "Brooks and the Bucs did a good job on Peterson." Apparently he contacted Peterson about the Bucs "success" against him, and Peterson acknowledged that they "did a great job staying true to their gaps. Good strategy."

King, while ignoring the fact that Peterson had a nice 4.5 yards-per-carry average and didn't even have a carry in the 4th quarter, his most productive quarter for most of the season, says that the Bucs success was due to their having thrown a "front-seven net around Peterson on every logical running down." So, in case you have never watched or played football, the way to stop a running back is to plug all the possible running lanes, and (presumably) tackle him before he runs forward. Maybe King's next column should include a section where Rodney Harrison explains that the way to beat Peyton Manning is to knock the ball down when he tries to throw it to his receivers.

King apparently will be expounding on this scoop later this week with a column devoted just to Brooks and Peterson. That should be a hoot. Let's hope he actually gets to some X's and O's in that one.  Oops, this just in—Alex Rodriguez is less productive when you throw the ball past him instead of letting him hit it. And double covering Randy Moss (ahem, Miami) keeps him from catching as many passes. If your 7-year-old son is trying to shoot baskets in the drive way, and you stand in from of him and bat the ball away as it leaves his little hands, he most assuredly will not score.

King might want to consider the fact that Tampa Bay controlled the ball for over 20 minutes in the second half. That is probably the best way to stop the other team's offense.

Will Johnson Interview

Brad: You grew up in Missouri?

Will Johnson: Yeah, the first 12 years of my life.

BT: And you went to high school?

WJ: In Texas.

BT: What kinds of concerts were you going to? What was the scene like around you?

WJ: Around that age, I was going to…good lord. Typical junior high and high school kind of shows, maybe Van Halen or Huey Lewis and the News. But then, after a while the baton started getting handed off to punk rock shows, then it became smaller venues and you know Soul Asylum, Hüsker Dü, something like that.

BT: This was in Denton?

WJ: I was living in Killeen, TX, but the closest place to go to see shows was Austin. It was only an hour drive. There was a venue there called Liberty Lunch, and they would let me and my underage friends in, so I’d see a lot of shows that way.

BT: You’ve got the Minneapolis bands represented there.

WJ: Yeah I got to see the Minneapolis bands come through. I got to see the Replacements around that time for the first time. That was like ‘86, ‘87. So yeah I was lucky to be in proximity of Austin.

BT: When did you start playing drums?

WJ: When I was probably about 4 or 5 I think. I got a toy drum kit from my father at that age and kept with it.

BT: Was it awhile later that you started playing guitar?

WJ: Yeah, I think I started playing guitar when I was 16 or 17.

BT: Dave Grohl is a great drummer, but he doesn’t play drums in his own band. Has that ever been an issue for you, when Matt’s playing drums, that you want to step in?

WJ: Oh man... Never, I’ve really never had that urge. I do have the urge to play drums, I love playing drums. But I never feel some overwhelming rush of “just let me do it,” because he’s (Matt Pence) such an incredible and astonishing drummer.

BT: You do play on some of the records.

WJ: I do, I play on some of the recordings. Often times it’s a result of his encouragement. I love doing that, I really do have fun playing drums on our recordings, but rarely do I find myself insistent on playing a part.

BT: Do you guys record live or more piece-meal?

WJ: We kind of piece-meal it. More times than not we build it up like a big old cake. Sometimes we’ll cut guitar and drum parts live, but we’ll stack it up over the course of a day.

BT: Every one of you plays more than one instrument, how do you decide from song to song who is going to play what? Is it just what sounds right?

WJ: Yeah, it seems kinda like a cop-out answer, but generally that is kinda the way it goes. Someone picks up something and if they’re inspired by the instrument that happens to be in their lap, then that’s what we wind up going with a lot of the time.

BT: You’ve written and recorded a ton of songs. How do you know when it’s time to go into the studio? You also write while you are in the studio?

WJ: These days I’m writing a lot in the studio, and I’m kinda warming up to that. I’ve always written a little bit in the studio, but with the Centro-Matic side of Dual Hawks the majority of it was written right in the studio, in the moment. So lately we have done a lot more writing in the studio than I ever did previously. Honestly, it’s just a matter of knowing when that next, maybe six weeks, two months advance notice of having some studio time… It’ll definitely be in the back of my brain, and I’ll start picking away at parts and a lot of the time 50% of the recordings, these days, is written in the studio. I may show up now with six or seven songs that I really like and the rest of it we just let the record evolve with all of us there. It seems like it takes on a natural birth better that way than, “Hey, here are our 15 songs, we’re gonna do these.” I guess it feels natural doing it this way.

BT: A lot of people never have these issues, but when you started performing was there any stage fright or hesitation to put your own songs in front of people?

WJ: There was pretty significant hesitation when I first started playing under the name Centro-matic. That was before we even had a band, so I would play under the name Centro-matic solo. The only reason I had that first show was because my best friend is a promoter in Denton and he went ahead and booked the show and made up fliers and posters and everything, and said, “Hey I know you’ve got material and you’ve been thinking about playing out. I’ve got you a show two weeks from tonight.” And I insisted, absolutely not, I’m not going to jump on the stage and play. And he said, “It’s too late, I’ve already made posters and fliers and everything, so you’re committed now.” Initially I though, “Wow what an asshole thing to do.” But in hindsight it was probably the right thing to do, I’m glad that he did it. It kind of kicked me in the ass and got me ready to play.

BT: Before that you had been drumming right? That didn’t really prepare you?

WJ: Not for standing with a guitar. With the drums I felt like I could hide a little bit and could just become part of the backdrop. Standing up there singing was weird for the first little while. I had glasses at the time, and I ‘d always take the glasses off so as to just blur everything. So I couldn’t see the whites of people’s eyes, I could just see figures. That made it a little easier.

BT: I’ve noticed that Patterson Hood sort of carries the flag for you guys, and I think I saw Derry deBorja at the show last night…

WJ: Yeah, he’s right over there.

BT: What is it like to have that sort of respect from your peers?

WJ: …It still really strikes me. It just means a lot, it keeps me inspired as a writer, and it keeps all of us inspired and hopeful as a group. I’ve known Patterson for eight or nine years now and we’ve become really good buds actually. We just talked for about a half an hour earlier tonight. Sometimes I’m still taken aback that I get to be friends with some of very favorite musicians and songwriters. It’s nice to be able to call and say hey let’s go hang out or have coffee or make a record or whatever we might want to do. It still kind of floors me.

BT: They were just here with the Hold Steady, there some… real moments. I read somewhere that he wants to tour with you guys again next year. Any plans?

WJ: We tried for some stuff in January and February, but due to personal schedules and everything we can’t all commit, so we’re just going to do three shows in Athens in January with them. And then, take a look into next year, see what everybody’s schedules are looking like. Anytime we get an excuse to all hang out together, we do, be it recording or a couple one-off shows or a tour, we try to make an effort. He and I are talking about doing some recording together next year.

BT: And you’ve backed him on some of his solo stuff, live stuff. 

WJ: Yeah, that’s correct. Scott Danbom and I have played on his solo stuff and on Drive-By Truckers stuff. Yeah, just about any excuse we get to hang out we’ll try to take advantage of it.

BT: We always like to ask people what they are listening to at the moment.

WJ: These days I’m listening to this new eccentric soul compilation, from the Brotherman soundtrack, which finally got released after 30-plus years.  Been listening to this girl Sarah Jaffe, she’s a Denton songwriter, a really, really amazing songwriter. Um…Constantines a little bit, I’ve been liking them a lot. What else… there’s one that I’m totally blanking on, that I keep going back to and back to… I keep going back to that old DJ Shadow record, Introducing.

BT: Do you get a chance to go see a lot of shows?

WJ: These days not so much. Coming up I’m going to be home for about two and a half months, so I’ll finally get a chance to get to go to shows and not have to load in.

BT: Is there any significance, I noticed last night that you changed clothes between sets?

WJ: I’ll usually shed a layer, but no there no real costume change or anything crazy like that. The most extravagant thing is maybe I’ll change into a pair of tennis shoes for Centro-matic. But, there’s no overwhelming change of face or anything like that. It does take a few minutes to shift gears between the styles of music, and say “OK, now we’re gonna turn it up…”

Centro-matic/ South San Gabriel

Country Music Goodness has posted a story of mine about Centro-matic/South San Gabriel. They came through New York City for two nights earlier this week, and I got a chance to chat with Will Johnson, lead singer and songwriter for both groups, before their Tuesday night show at The Bell House in Brooklyn. I was 20 minutes late, but he was very forgiving, and took a break from putting the night's setlists together. I'll post the transcript of the interview on here later, in case anybody just wants the facts.

Antoine Winfield

Jerry Holt captured this shot of Antoine Winfield as he was returning a fumble for a touchdown against Carolina in Week 3. Winfield is having one of the best seasons of his career, and you can read about it on the Star Tribune's site.

Week 12

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Steelers could use a week off, as they are in the middle of tough stretch. But Cincinnati hasn't been making things easy on anybody. Ask Donovan McNabb. Steelers, 17-13.

Tampa Bay at Detroit: The Lions are going to win a game, eventually. But Tampa is too good. Bucs, 24-13.

New York Jets at Tennessee: The Jets have shown that they can play a complete game, and make big plays, but Tennessee should be able to negate some of their strengths. Titans, 20-16.

Buffalo at Kansas City: The Chiefs keep getting close to upsets, but the Bills need to turn things around. Bills, 27-20.

Chicago at St. Louis: Tempting to predict a Rams upset over the fading Bears, but they sure have looked bad the last few weeks. Bears, 21-17.

New England at Miami: Miami crushed New England last time, but Matt Cassel is playing pretty well, and the veteran Pats will find a way to win. Patriots, 31-27.

Minnesota at Jacksonville: Minnesota will have their starting defensive line, and they should neutralize the Jags running game. Vikings, 23-21.

Philadelphia at Baltimore: The Eagles are frustratingly inconsistent. The Ravens flat-out tough. Ravens, 20-17.

Houston at Cleveland: Cleveland is at least proving that they aren't horrible. Still a wasted season. Browns, 28-21.

San Francisco at Dallas: When I was 10-years-old this was the biggest match-up in the NFL. Not this week. Cowboys, 31-21.

Oakland at Denver: Always an exciting match-up, the Raiders defense might be able to keep this one close for a little while, but I always go with Jay Cutler. Broncos, 35-17.

Washington at Seattle: Washington needs to rebound from that tough loss to Dallas, and stay in the wildcard lead. Washington, 27-21.

New York Giants at Arizona: Maybe Kurt Warner can throw for 300 against his former team. Maybe he will also throw three picks. Giants, 28-24.

Carolina at Atlanta: NFC South match ups will be interesting from here on out. I like MAtt Ryan at home. Falcons, 24-17.

Indianapolis at San Diego: Indianapolis looks like they have figured things out. Too late to win the division, but in time to jump into the wildcard race. Colts, 31-20.

Green Bay at New Orleans: I think Green Bay's biggest asset is their pass defense, and this week they will get gauged.  Saints, 28-21.

Ranking the NFL

1. New York Giants: Contradicting myself by moving the Titans, but the Giants are simply the best team in the league right now.

2. Tennessee Titans: They keep doing what they do.

3. Carolina Panthers: From this point on it felt like nobody deserved to be so high, but somebody had to go here.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers: They are winning extremely close games. Will they wear down?

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They are one of the more balanced teams in the league, mostly because of Jeff Garcia.

16. Minnesota Vikings: They lost to a better team, and moved up because Chicago and Philadelphia fell apart.

17. Green Bay Packers: I'm not ready to say they've righted the ship just yet.

20. Chicago Bears: Two in a row, but they get the Rams next.

28. Kansas City Chiefs: They have some nice young players. I wonder how long they will keep Herm Edwards around.

29. Seattle Seahawks: They suck.

30. St. Louis Rams: It seems to be getting worse.

31. Oakland Raiders: At least they kept it close.

32. Detroit Lions

ESPN.com: G.B.- 16, CHI-19, MIN-21

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): G.B.-11, MIN-12, CHI-17

CBS Sports: G.B.-15, CHI-18, MIN-20

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): G.B.-9, CHI-12, MIN-15

FOX Sports: G.B.-14, CHI-17, MIN-18

So wrong, So much of the time

Once again, I have proved that I cannot pick NFL games. Here are some of the worst misses:

I thought that when the Jets went to New England last Thursday the game would be a little bit more on the defensive side. Instead, the Patriots gained over 500 yards, and the Jets used a balanced attack to put up 34 points. The Patriots actually played a pretty solid game overall, but the Jets came up with big plays, and New England did not. In the first half the Jets looked like they might run away with the game, especially after a Leon Washington 92-yard kickoff return. But, as one might expect, Bill Belichick made the proper adjustments at half time, and the Pats stormed back into the game.

The Jets defense had the epitome of a bend-but-don't-break performance. They somehow managed to give up 400 yards passing to Matt Cassel. Cassel looked as good as he has all year, turning from a one-read quarterback into one who was checking down and finding single coverage when he had to. But the Jets came up with a few stops in this game, even if they were on their own side of the field. They won this game because of two long drives, one in the 4th quarter, and the second on the opening possession of overtime. This was a really great game, and was a rare one that leads the viewer to believe that both teams are legit, even if one lost.

Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos actually managed to play some defense in Atlanta, and came up with a huge win. My mantra with the Broncos all season has said that Jay Cutler will put up big numbers, but their defense will let them down. For now, they look to have the AFC West and a first-round home game wrapped up, with San Diego (4-6) losing to Pittsburgh. Sunday's 24-20 win over the Falcons might spark a run for the Broncos.

In the case of the Philadelphia Eagles, I think it is time to write them off. They have been wildly inconsistent from week to week. Sometimes, they have looked very good, even in losses. Other times, Donovan McNabb can't hold on to the ball, and they look pretty bad. Yes, Cincinnati has played tough in a lot of their losses, but the Eagles were supposed to be a contender, and they are lucky to have tied the Bengals. McNabb has to take care of the ball. The defense played solid, but somewhere along the line you have to put up some points. Ugliest game of the year? 13-13 might tell the entire story.

How they score on us

After discovering the official gamebooks for each game on NFL.com, I did a little research. The game book basically is a collection of every single piece of official information from an NFL game. It includes drive charts, final statistics, and a play-by-play of the game, among other things. I'll be referring to this from now on, part of my statistical obsession.

Time of Possession

The Vikings have won time of possession in six of nine games. In those six games, they are 3-3, and all three wins came at home. Interestingly, Minnesota is 2-1 when they don't control the ball. 

The second quarter has been a weird one for the Vikings. Opponents have controlled the ball for 10 more minutes in the 2nd. But, the Vikings have outscored teams 67-46. That doesn't seem to line up. It evens out. In the third quarter, Minnesota has held the ball 14 minutes longer than opponents but have been outscored 66-37. The main reason for this? The following scores have occurred in the 3rd quarter of Viking games this season:

Week 1: Will Blackmon returns a punt 76 yards for a touchdown. In this quarter Minnesota held the ball for 12:42 and managed just a field goal.

Week 5: Reggie Bush returns a punt 71 yards for a touchdown. Minnesota won time of possession in this quarter also (a modest 8:20-6:40), but did not score.

Week 7: Chicago pulls out three 20-yard-plus plays, including a 51-yard touchdown pass to Marty Booker.

Week 10: Green Bay gets two return touchdowns in the third quarter. First, Nick Collins returned a Gus Frerotte interception 59 yards for a score. A few minutes later, Will Blackmon again returned a punt for a touchdown against Minnesota, this time 65 yards. The Vikings held the ball for 11:12, and were outscored 14-7.

If nothing else, these facts are weird. The Vikings are making things hard on themselves. 

Opponents scoring drives

These numbers are less telling, but equal head scratchers. Here is how teams are scoring against the Vikings:

As a team, Minnesota has given up 38 scores this season. 25 touchdowns, 13 field goals.

8 touchdowns have come on run plays, 9 on pass plays and 8 more on returns. The returns: 4 punts, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble, 1 blocked punt.

10 opponents scoring drives have started from midfield or Vikings territory. Amazingly, Minnesota has managed to give opponents the ball at their own 6-yard line twice. Both times touchdowns were scored. The longest drives given up for scores are two 80-yarders (Colts, Bears), both after touchbacks. 

In Week 10 Green Bay scored all of their non-return points (a touchdown and two field goals) after starting in Minnesota territory.

These stats are just odd. But they don't really tell us that much about the Vikings defense, good or bad. They do confirm one thing: field position is huge in the NFL, as if we needed to be told that.

Week 11

New York Jets at New England: Matt Cassell is coming along pretty well for a guy who hadn't started since high school. I think Brett Favre will continue to turn the ball over. Patriots, 27-21.

Denver at Atlanta: The Broncos are always dangerous on offense, but they won't challenge Matt Ryan. Jay Cutler is another turnover machine. Falcons, 34-20.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati: The Eagles typically do well against lesser teams. Donovan McNabb should be running this team, and they shouldn't be running late in the 4th quarter. Eagles, 34-14.

Chicago at Green Bay: Green Bay hasn't been particularly impressive, but this seems like a game they will win. Even if Kyle Orton plays, will he be able to move? Packers, 20-17.

Houston at Indianapolis: I love Andre Johnson, and the Houston quarterbacks are able to get him the ball, but his team doesn't have enough weapons. Peyton Manning is starting to look better. Colts, 28-21.

New Orleans at Kansas City: I can't pick the Saints this year. Nobody seems to be able to lose to the Chiefs though. I still defend Herm Edwards' two-point attempt. Saints, 27-24.

Oakland at Miami: The Raiders suck. Dolphins, 24-10.

Baltimore at New York Giants: I have been a huge Ravens fan this year. If anybody can beat the Giants right now, it might be Baltimore. But... probably not. Giants, 28-17.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay will have Cadillac Williams back. Won't matter against the Viking defense. I see a lot of field goals. Vikings 29-20.

Detroit at Carolina: The Lions suck. Panthers, 31-17.

St. Louis at San Francisco: Both teams suck. The 49ers looked OK on Monday Night Football. 49ers, 30-20.

Arizona at Seattle: Arizona had to fight way too hard to beat the 49ers. But Seattle finds ways to lose. Cardinals, 35-26.

San Diego at Pittsburgh: The Chargers don't impress me all that much. One of the Steelers quarterbacks will lead them to a win. Steelers, 24-16.

Tennessee at Jacksonville: My big upset of the week. Jacksonville hasn't been as typically hard-nosed as in past years, but they might come out a little jacked-up this week. Jaguars, 20-16.

Dallas at Washington: Coming out of a bye week with Tony Romo back in, Dallas is due for a big win. Cowboys, 24-17.

Cleveland at Buffalo: Who knows? Buffalo has to turn things around, now. Bills, 27-20.

Power Ballad

After an exciting Week 10, here is where they stand:

1. Tennessee Titans: Taking care of the NFC North this year. They surely will not go undefeated.

2. New York Giants: Who will beat the Giants? They are extremely balanced.

3. Carolina Panthers: Not an impressive win against the terrible Raiders. 7-2 is a nice record though, and they are on the way to a playoff berth.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers: I can't shake the feeling that this team just needs to get into the playoffs, and then they can really do some damage. The Ravens are sneaking up.

5. New England Patriots: They refuse to lose in consecutive games. They are far realer than the Jets and Dolphins.

16. Chicago Bears: Can they hold off the Packers are create a little bit of separation? Probably not with Rex Grossman.

17. Minnesota Vikings: The defense is starting to come on, though the big plays have disappeared. They once were a threat to score on returns every other game.

20. Green Bay Packers: Rough, confusing loss. They are still right in it, especially with a win against Chicago.

28. St. Louis Rams: A week after the Raiders played the worst game of any team this year, Rams one-up them.

29. Cincinnati Bengals: No longer the best 1-8 team, now that Kansas City has joined them.

30. Seattle Seahawks: Nice effort, but you can't rest your hopes on Koren Robinson. 

31. Oakland Raiders: Jake Delhomme was awful, and yet the Raiders lose by double digits. Oof.

32. Detroit Lions

Michael Silver still has the most NFC North respect, though he dropped the Packers nine spots.

ESPN.com: CHI-14, MIN-17, G.B.-21

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): CHI-10, MIN-12, G.B.-17

CBS Sportsline: MIN-15, CHI-17, G.B.-19

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): CHI-8, MIN-14, G.B.-15

FOX Sports: CHI-11, MIN-19, G.B.-19

Pete Prisco has nothing to say

The Kansas City Chiefs made an interesting move this week. With 23 seconds left, trailing San Diego 20-19, the 1-7 Chiefs decided to go for a two-point conversion. The game was a nail-biter all the way, and Kansas City somehow managed to fail on a point after attempt that would have given them a 14-6 lead in the 2nd quarter. They missed on the two-pointer too, and lost the game 20-19.

The obvious reasoning for the two-point attempt is that the Chiefs, at 1-7, are completely out of the running this season. There are a lot of reasons why going to overtime does them no good. They have also played in a number of close games this year, and have, of course, lost all of them. And there is certainly precedent for the do-or-die two-point attempt. The Denver Broncos did it this year, also against San Diego, in a game that did matter to both teams. They converted. Way back in 2002, the 3-10 Minnesota Vikings went for two after scoring with 10 seconds remaining, trailing the New Orleans Saints 31-30. The Saints were 9-4, and very much in the playoff race. Daunte Culpepper ran in a quarterback draw, and the Vikings played spoiler. 

The most famous two-point conversation attempt came in the 1984 Orange Bowl. The Nebraska Cornhuskers entered the game heavily favored to beat the Miami Hurricanes, and, trailing 31-30 with under a minute remaining, head coach Tom Osborne decided to go for two instead of tying the game. The attempted failed, and Nebraska lost its bid for a national championship.

In the days after Herm Edwards' decision to go for the win, most analysts have applauded the choice. The consensus is basically "Why not?" But, one writer spoke out pretty aggressively against Edwards. Pete Prisco, of CBS.com, in his weekly "grades"(which normally are nothing but proof that Prisco doesn't watch any of the games), he said "Take your F, Herm. You've earned it." Prisco's only argument is that a coach shouldn't put an entire game on one play. He mentions a few times how he has rallied against this decision in the past. He mentions how he argued with Tom Coughlin back in 1995 about it, as if anybody cares. He says Mike Shanahan was wrong in Denver also. 

"At Least if you lose the coin flip, you have more than one play. Stop them. Get the ball back. If defense wins championships like they say, why can't it make a stop in overtime after a lost coin flip?" Well, Pete, if there was any question about the Chiefs winning a championship, this would be a different situation. The Chiefs are awful. They can't win a  championship. That's why if they lost the coin toss, they probably would give up points on the first drive. If they can make a stop, get the ball, and drive for a score, why can't they move the ball two yards and win the game on one play?

Prisco basically says nothing in his column. He has this strong conviction about two-point conversions, but no reasoning behind it. I'm sure there is good reason why he is a columnist on a major sports web site, but when is he ever going to actually say something?

Comedy!

Yankee Pot Roast posted the shortest work of my short career.

Unsolicited Music Rant

In thinking about this column, I considered a number of themes. I could have called it, “Why Counting Crows Are Underrated.” Underrated seemed the wrong word, and “overlooked” briefly came to mind. The most apt title might have been, “Counting Crows Are a Band That I Have Recently Taken Interest In.”

In the September issue of The Believer, Dylan-drooler Greil Marcus wondered aloud why it is so uncool to like Counting Crows these days. (I'm wondering why Marcus is teaching at the University of Minnesota, and holding a number of discussions on campus,  the year after I graduate...) The problem may have less to do with the band themselves, and more to do with how music is consumed. Generally speaking (extremely general), there are two major kinds of music fans out there right now: One listens to whatever is on the radio, or whoever makes the final two or three on American Idol. The other listens to anything that isn’t on the radio, and couldn’t possibly be seen as mainstream.

There are, of course, gray areas both between and on either side of these wild generalizations. But, unless you are Radiohead, it seems impossible to cross both lines, particularly among young listeners (A statement open to debate, naturally). The term indie has been appropriated by so many camps that it seems devoid of any meaning. Obscurity (I got here first) is as important to some as popularity (I'm glad the rest of you are here) is to others. Meanwhile, bands that once held both critical and popular sway have mostly been abandoned by both extremes.

This most recent (there have been many others) major backlash against mainstream music was inevitable, especially in the rock world. The 1990s saw speculation rule as major record companies threw millions of dollars into bringing along alternative rock groups. Rock music has always exemplified “coolness” in the music world. Not necessarily the hip, smooth coolness of jazz, or the slick, bright coolness of pop, but an edgy, dirty, hole-in-the-knees-of-your-jeans coolness. Shortly after Nirvana (on the heels of and in debt to REM, the Replacements, insert 1980s college rock band here…) brought grunge into the mainstream, labels looked to package so-called alternative-rock music and sell it to the masses. The glut of music videos is perhaps the most telling aspect of the time period. Millions and millions were spent putting rock singles on heavy-rotation on MTV. Labels and bands invested hugely and for a while, were paid huge dividends.

Eventually though, the rock-cool scene wore off, and music got online, where people could get it for free, and that single could be downloaded without having to pay for the rest of the album. There was a certain excitement about music videos. Going back and watching videos from Smashing Pumpkins, Stone Temple Pilots, and others reminds one that these were incredible pieces of film in their own right. Big-name directors worked with large budgets to make legitimately beautiful four and five minute videos. Counting Crows were one of the DGC projects (Nirvana, Teenage Fanclub, an old professor of mine's near success, Rex Daisy), and they put out a number of videos themselves.

The breaking point between when it was OK to like rock music and when it wasn't OK is hard to pin down; it might have been the Wallflowers, who have accumulated a group of haters hard to comprehend. The combination of roots-rock and Jakob Dylan’s polarizing blue eyes was more than many could take. Or maybe it was the one-off bands like Fuel and Semisonic, who’s huge singles were accompanied by underwhelming albums, and poor follow-ups. Either way, the bottom fell out from under video-rock, and almost 10 years later, there has been little healing.

Counting Crows represent a wonderful intersection of mainstream popularity, critical acclaim, and hardcore cultish following. Their debut, 1993’s August and Everything After, was received with excitement and accolades. They played at the 1994 Rock ‘N Roll Hall of Fame inductions, an incredible feat for a recently unknown group. They also hit the airwaves hard with the single “Mr. Jones.”  David Letterman didn’t even try to hide his man-love for the band when they appeared on The Late Show. They made a bunch of videos, and toured the world.

Although their second single, “Einstein on the Beach (For an Eggman)” reached number one on the Modern Rock charts, and their second album, Recovering the Satellites, also peaked at number 1, there were detractors from the beginning. Adam Duritz, for all his vocal qualities, will be viewed as a whiner by many. And that’s without listening closely to his lyrics, which will be delved into further. With each album the band moved further from roots-roots into pop-pop. We’ve seen plenty of groups become more polished and more produced as they get older, or more experienced, or more nuanced (again, refer to REM, the Replacements…even Indie- and critic-darlings The Hold Steady have been criticized recently for, essentially, spending too much time in the studio). Whatever.

In 2008, it is cooler to be unknown than to have a number one single. Counting Crows certainly fit neither role, and they are decidedly uncool. Adam Duritz recently revealed that he has battled depression and a dissociative disorder for most of his life. Listening to his lyrics from any album in the bands catalogue should make this disclosure less than shocking. The third song on August and Everything After, “Mr. Jones,” bares themes that have played out through out the rest of Duritz’s writing: dreams of stardom, realities of loneliness, and constant introspection. In 1993, Duritz was on-the-verge; he was on the verge of stardom, success, and by the nature of his writing, execution of some emotional emptiness.

“Mr. Jones” exemplifies Durtitz’s, and so many others’, hope that stardom would bring him happiness; “When everybody loves me, I will never be lonely.” The second half of this line, “I will never be lonely,” is repeated twice more. The song ends “Mr. Jones and me, we’re gonna be big stars…” Loneliness is a continued theme on the following track, “Perfect Blue Buildings.” The song is chillingly personal, and in the final minute of the song Durtiz wonders again and again, “How am I gonna keep myself away from me?”

If August and Everything After is a call for companionship, love, and fame, Recovering the Satellites is a direct response from post-fame Duritz to his former self, the one who just a few years earlier wanted nothing but to be known and loved. After an eclectic debut complete with accordions, mandolins, and the sparse drumming of Steve Bowman, Counting Crows second album is a rock album, full of heavy guitars, and new drummer Ben Mize’s (who plays with a force not in line with the rest of the band, always waiting to burst out of the mid-tempo rockers; imagine Dave Grohl being forced to play “Something in the Way” over and over) heavy toms and constant symbol crashing. The group added a second guitarist, Dan Vickrey, and he brought an electric side to the band that was previously shrouded in roots-rock sensibility.

But, like August, Recovering the Satellites is a delicate balance of full-band noise and lower, piano-driven introspections by Duritz. On the first album, Duritz was addressing potential fame and potential lovers. “Goodnight Elizabeth,” the fifth track on Satellites, brings the listener to the aftermath of both relationships, where Duritz is left holding the pieces of what can only be presumed was once a healthy affair. Duritz has lost a lover as a result of his new lifestyle. He expertly places us on the road (and in distress) in the first line: “I was wasted in the afternoon, waiting on a train/ I woke up in pieces and Elizabeth had disappeared again.” He is acutely aware of his dilemma; as he is traveling the country, living his live out on stages, and cannot do anything about it. Duritz has been quoted many times saying that he views being a musician as a personal must; he more or less feels that it is not only his calling in life, but something that he has to do. This is more eloquently stated in the song: “Some of us are dancers on the midway, we roam from town to town/ I hope that everybody can find a little flame/ me, I say my prayers then light myself on fire, and walk out on the wire once again.” He got the fame he wanted, and is realizing that will not solve his problems, and might even cause new ones.

The band’s third album took another three years to complete. This Desert Life represents a step in yet another direct. It regains a more folksy and country feel. As AllMusic’s Stephan Thomas Erlewin points out, the album is not without edge, but it is crafted beyond the reaches of the previous two albums. There are more hooks, and far catchier melodies. Still, many consider This Desert Life to be yet another disappointing follow-up to August.

Duritz manages to get out of his own head a few times on This Desert Life, especially in character studies “Amy Hit the Atmosphere” and “St. Robinson and His Cadillac Dream.” Still, he is as introspective as ever, and the perfect movie soundtrack song, “Colorblind,” is another reminder. Though it is more wordy and flush with visceral sentiment than most of Duritz’s songs, it harkens back to Duritz’s continued search for love, companionship, intimacy. “I am covered in skin/ no one gets to come in/ Pull me out from inside/ I am folded, and unfolded, and unfolding.”

On the band’s fourth studio effort, Hard Candy, Duritz actually delves further into his own psyche. But, to the chagrin of those already fading hardcore fans, the album is the most polished yet. The album itself is a piece of candy, sonically. The hooks have hooks. The rollicking piano work of Charlie Gillingham is pushed further to the front than ever. Matthew Sweet and Sheryl Crow make appearances.

The album is much deeper than a first listen can indicate. “American Girls,” the big single from Hard Candy, has largely been mislabeled as a throw-away radio hit, devoid of any real sentiment. But in typical Duritz-fashion, it is not a Brian Wilson-ode to the blonde beauties roller-blading across the beaches of Los Angeles. Instead the song is about Duritz. It is another window into the messed up mind of a guy who so desperately craves love, intimacy, and physicality, and is continually drawn into the traps of cunning partners who leave him back where he started: alone. “American Girls” is perhaps pointing the fingers at these girls.

Counting Crows followed Hard Candy with about five years solid of touring. Six years later, they finally released 2008’s Saturday Nights and Sunday Mornings. The newest album is the first with drummer Jim Bogios, who carries much of Mize’s rock style, but maybe without the same power. Multi-instrumentalist Millard Powers steps in on bass.

Fans of Hard Candy (the few, the proud) will find that Counting Crows have again taken a diagonal step. Gone are the pop frills, replaced mostly by straight-ahead rock. The title of the album hints at one of the key elements of their sound: each album has been a balance of loud and soft, of multi-track, layered instrumentation and barebones emotion. Duritz not only continues to explore his favorite themes on this album, but he unabashedly borrows from his own songs. As he tells it, the line “I dream of Michelangelo while I’m lying in my bed,” which appeared in the song “Angels of Silences,” was actually lifted from a song that he had spent years trying finish. That song apparently was finally wrapped up all these years later, and appears on the Sunday Mornings half of the album, aptly titled “When I Dream of Michelangelo.”

The difference between this album and others is more structural than anything. While the previous efforts felt like a collection of Duritz’s emotional musings captured in three and four minute snippets, Saturday Nights and Sunday Mornings feels more like a collection of songs, in the strictest sense. The songs have more beginnings, middles, and endings than before. Perhaps Duritz has embraced a storytelling side that was previously shrouded in his own introspection. Not lost are Duritz’s excellent vocal melodies and performance, and the excellent support of his band mates.

The simple fact is that for whatever ability to connect with his own emotions Duritz possesses, and in turn, express them in a way that any close-listener can easily and sometimes painfully relate to, he is surrounded by a band of tight and virtuosic musicians. And Duritz himself is a pop leaning writer. Counting Crows like hooks. They like harmonies and loud guitars and drum fills and bridges and guest vocalists. There is a sheen over many of their songs. If Duritz had instead been a solo artist, a man with a guitar and his voice alone, he could very easily have been appreciated in the vein of an Eliot Smith. His lyrics are that powerful. But, alas, he plays with a pop band, a rock band, and they dance and they solo, and they wear new clothes.

So while Carrie Underwood and Lil’ Whomever push out more of the same surface-level muck, and a bunch of American Appearlites ride eternally on their floor toms while moaning at the ceiling in complete earnestness, Counting Crows will languish (with fat pay checks and a million frat boy fans) somewhere between. They are still remembered as that “Mr. Jones”-band by many, certainly. Younger people might see them as that “American Girls”-band. Fortunately for them, they came up when it was still cool to be on MTV, and it was OK for millions of people to like your music.

Drive-By Truckers & Hold Steady - Terminal 5, New York, NY

Another review at Country Music Goodness. The Hold Steady and Drive-By Truckers played Terminal 5 in Manhattan last Thursday and Friday nights.

McCarthy becomes Childress

In what has become standard for the Vikings, Sunday's game against the Green Bay Packers featured some high highs and low lows. The Vikings played incredible defense. They ran the ball at will. They also turned the ball over four times, one of those an interception that was returned for a touchdown, and gave up a punt return touchdown. They needed a Mason Crosby missed field goal with under 30 seconds remaining to finally seal the win, 28-27. 

The day started with the two overarching themes that would carry out through the entire game. First, on the Packers' opening drive, the Vikings defense harassed Aaron Rodgers and forced a punt. With good field position, the Vikings used running back Adrian Peterson extensively on a scoring drive. Red-zone-only threat Sidney Rice scored on a three yard pass from Gus Frerotte. 

Unfortunately, just minutes later, the other major theme of the game emerged.

After another Packer punt, Frerotte was picked off by Charles Woodson. The Packers turned the short field into seven points to tie the game. Frerotte would throw two more picks, one of them returned by Nick Collins for a touchdown. In the midst of these mistakes, two Vikings asserted their will over Green Bay, refusing to let the turnovers tank the Vikings playoff chances.

Jared Allen, playing with a shoulder injury, dominated Chad Clifton. As Trent Dilfer pointed out on ESPN, the Vikings went with a number of inside blitzes by linebackers Chad Greenway and Napolean Harris. Each had one sack, and free of double teams, Allen chased Rodgers all day. (Kevin and Pat Williams also continued to play at All-Pro levels.) The entire defensive line was typically stout against the run, and Rodgers has not seen that much pressure this season. He looked frazzled the entire game, and his stats (15-26, 142 yards, no touchdowns) tell that tale.

Adrian Peterson, meanwhile, was simply unstoppable. He did have one error: On a 4th and 1 in the fourth quarter, after he appeared to convince Brad Childress to go for it, he fumbled before reaching the line to gain. It didn't matter. Peterson finished with 192 yards, and never was stopped for a loss. Throw in a huge receiving day from Chester Taylor (84 yards and a touchdown), and the Vikings running backs carried the offense. Peterson is simply the best running back in the NFL. With the ball in his hands, there is nothing he cannot do. He is a decent receiver and decent blocker, to boot. Only Randy Moss was a more electrifying Minnesota Viking, but Peterson might dethrone him if he stays healthy over the years.

Maybe the most interesting part of this game was Packer coach Mike McCarthy's decision to run the ball on their final three offensive plays. After a fortunate bounce of the ball put the Packers at the Vikings 40-yard-line with 2 minutes remaining, Green Bay ran the ball three times, moving just six yards and running the clock down to 31 seconds. Mason Crosby then missed a 52-yard field goal, and the Vikings knelt on the ball to run the clock out. It is no secret that the Vikings are near impossible to run against. The only conclusions to be drawn from this are that a) McCarthy is very confident in Crosby's kicking, and b) McCarthy didn't want the ball in Rodgers' hands. Rodgers nearly threw the game away when Greenway batted a pass in the air. Luckily is went right to Donald Driver, who pulled it in and was tackled at the 40. The Vikings were all over Rodgers, and maybe McCarthy was worried Rodgers would be sacked, or worse, would turn the ball over. Either way, interesting play calling.

The Vikings will travel to Tampa Bay next week. The Buccaneers are coming off their bye, and should present a challenge to the Vikings. Minnesota has played their two best games the last couple weeks, and if they can carry that over, and win the turnover battle, they can bet anybody. Enormous "ifs."

Week 10

Denver at Cleveland: Brady Quinn makes his debut after a short week. Luckily, he is facing a terrible defense. Cleveland has played OK recently, and will win, 34-28.

New Orleans at Atlanta: Huge divisional match up, and Atlanta's chance to really announce their presence in a division with a ton of wins. Matt Ryan will have another solid week, but the Saints pull it out, 27-21.

Tennessee at Chicago: The Titans are going to flop sooner or later, but not against the Bears, especially not against Rex Grossman. Titans 20-10.

Jacksonville at Detroit: The Lions are starting to get those decent performances that lead to an eventual win, sort of like what Cincinnati did for the last month. The Jaguars are desperate and their toughness has been challenged. Look for Jack Del Rio to fire them up for this match up. Jags 24-17.

Seattle at Miami: Miami should get their running game back on track. Dolphins 30-10.

Green Bay at Minnesota: Who knows? The Packers have had success against Brad Childress, but this time the Vikings have a passing threat. If Jared Allen sits with a shoulder injury, the Packers might throw for 300 yards. Still, I'm expecting a big day from Adrian PEterson, and the Vikings to win 24-21.

Buffalo at New England: Both teams have been wildly inconsistent, game to game and even quarter to quarter in the Bills' case. I'll give the Pats home field advantage a nod, and say they take it 23-16.

St. Louis at New York Jets: The Rams offense was thwarted at home against Arizona. Even though Brett Favre is throwing interceptions at a mind-numbing pace, I'll give the Jets the benefit of the doubt against a two-win team, 24-13.

Baltimore at Houston: The Texans are probably the most consistent team among the hopeless in the NFL. They show up every week, and make some plays. The Ravens defense will dominate them though. Ravens 20-17.

Carolina at Oakland: Panthers 31-14.

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh: The Steelers get no breaks the rest of the way. The Colts still aren't that impressive. Steelers 28-27.

Kansas City at San Diego: The Chargers should be able to handle the Chiefs. And even if they can't, Kansas City will self-destruct in the second half. Chargers 24-16.

New York Giants at Philadelphia: I think the Giants will be the best team in the NFL for the rest of the season. They have the best combination of offense, defense, and special teams. Philly is a wild card with all that talent, but the Giants can overcome that. New York, 30-20.

San Francisco at Arizona: Cardinals win in rare Monday Night Football appearance, 35-28.

More rankings.

Yet again the  top five are intact. New England drops a few spots, and is replaced at 5 by Washington.

1. Tennessee Titans: This deep into the season, you can't drop the only undefeated team below first.

2. New York Giants: If you were going to drop the Titans, it would be for New York. They dominated the floundering Cowboys, and are head and shoulders above the rest of the best division in the league.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: They have the best back up quarterback in the league, and he came through in a big Monday night win.

4. Carolina Panthers: Playing mostly consistent, looking to come off their bye week and keep the momemtum.

5. Washington: Tough loss to Pittsburgh. Still one of the few six-win teams in the league.

10. Chicago Bears: Found a way to win despite Detroit playing one of its better games. They need to make a few weeks with Rex Grossman at quarterback.

18. Green Bay Packers: Still not convinced by this team, as they seem to play to their opponents level every week. Need Aaron Rodgers to stay healthy.

21. Minnesota Vikings: An even less convincing team, but they played their best game of the season so far.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: They finally finished a game, and get their first win of the year.

29. San Francisco 49ers: Haven't seen enough of this team, but they don't seem to have a lot going for them.

30. Seattle Seahawks: Really bad.

31. Oakland Raiders: Worst team performance of the season on Sunday. By any team in the league, that is.

32. Detroit Lions: Like the Titans, you can't move a team from this spot until they win a game.

The experts stayed about the same this week with their NFC North rankings. Most had Chicago highest, and all had Detroit at 32. Michael Silver has consistently ranked NFC North teams higher than ESPN, CBS, and Jeff Sagarin's computer have. He currently has two division teams in the top 10, and by his average ranking for the Vikings is five spots higher than ESPN's and seven spots higher than CBS's. Interesting?

ESPN.com: CHI-9, G.B.-16, MIN-20, DET-32

Michael Silver(Yahoo!): G.B.-7, CHI-9, MIN-13, DET-32

CBS Sportline: CHI-15, G.B.-16, MIN-19, DET-32

Jeff Sagarin(USA Today): CHI-8, G.B.-14, MIN-14, DET-32

FOX Sports: CHI-7, G.B.-12, MIN-19, DET-32

Where I Went Wrong

In Week 9, I suffered mostly from close games. Teams with the same record beating each other, that sort of thing. The big one was a New York-state divisional battle where Brett Favre proved me right, but the game ended the opposite of my prediction.

The first quarter of the Jets-Bills game in Buffalo must have been a bit frightening for Jets fans. The Bills came out and physically dominated the Jets. The Bills started four possessions in the first quarter, and three of them went for 50+ yard drives, with the opening drive ending in a Derek Fine touchdown. One possession ended in one play when Trent Edwards fumbled. On both sides of the ball the line of scrimmage was completely controlled by Buffalo for the first 22 or so minutes of this game. After racking up over 160 yards and a bunch of first downs, the Bills had just seven points, and had spotted New York 10. 

Edwards' fumble put the Jets on the six yard line, and led to a field goal after Buffalo's defensive spent three plays in the Jets backfield. After driving the Bills all the way down the field, Edwards threw the ball directly to Abram Elam, who took it back 92 yards for a score, putting the Jets up 13-7 after one quarter. The Bills then held the ball for 14 more plays before being stopped on 4th and 1 inside the Jets 10-yard line. After all that, even down only six points, the Bills seemed out of it. 

The Jets, on the other hand, played at an even keel. They played mistake free during the first half, and despite being out matched on 90% of plays, they took advantage when the Bills stumbled, and turned it into a half time lead. In the 4th quarter, after the Bills again wasted a long drive(this time with a Rian Lindell missed field goal), Brett Favre made New York's sole boo-boo of the game. On a play that is almost Favre-trademarked, he threw to a comeback route while being hit, and was picked off. (Peter King, in his weekly power rankings, speaking on Favre's 300th interception,  says Brett didn't appear to care much about the number. Is King lauding the ever-down-to-earth Ironman, or wondering aloud at Favre's indifference to giving away points? Knowing King, I'm guessing the former.) Jabari Greer, who covered the play perfectly, caught the ball and took it to the end zone, making the score 23-17, and giving the Bills hope. The Jets responded with one of their best drives of the season, moving 65 yards in almost nine minutes. Jay Feely capped the drive with a field goal to put them up by nine.

Meanwhile, as I thought might be the case, Jay Cutler threw the ball all over the field against the Miami Dolphins. Unfortunately, his 307 yards were coupled with three interceptions lead to a 26-17 Dolphins win. How can the Broncos manage only 14 yards rushing? Something is wrong with the game plan when that happens. Again, the Dolphins running game was held in check, but they managed to pull out a victory this time.

Lastly, the Colts did in fact upset the Patriots. An upset probably only in the sense that the Pats came in with a better record, but, nonetheless. In the first quarter the Colts looked significantly faster than the Patriots and their aged linebackers. As usual, a Belichick-coached  team managed to calm their opponents fast start. The Colts stayed in the playoff-hunt thanks to some uncharacteristic bone-headed plays by the Pats. Still, the Colts remain one of the more dangerous teams in the league because of Payton Manning. Their passing game can really click, and against a team like the Patriots, that will lead to victories.