Final Regular Season Ranks

1. New York Giants: They lost, and I moved them up. what gives? Seeing them up close made me realize how dominant their offensive line is, and Steve Spagnuolo has some pretty nice blitz packages. I'm guessing it will come down to a game at the Meadowlands against Carolina.

2. Tennessee Titans: Baltimore could make things tough on the Titans come round two. But I think the Colts would beat them.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Byron Leftwich probably could win a couple playoff games with this team. Steelers fans should probably hope he stays on the bench though.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Nine wins in a row is nothing to scoff at. I think they will challenge either Pittsburgh or Tennessee in the second round, and if they get through there, might be Super.

5. Baltimore Ravens: Here's hoping we get to see Baltimore play Miami, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh in the playoffs. Talk about some old-school football.

6. Carolina Panthers: Will anybody be able to stop DeAngelo Williams and Steve Smith in the playoffs?

7. Miami Dolphins: They just keep on winning. Their defense deserves a lot of credit. How valuable is Ricky Williams? Because of him the Dolphins go into the playoffs with two relatively fresh running backs.

8. New England Patriots: By far the best team to miss the playoffs, probably playing as well as anybody right now. Matt Cassel appears to be the real deal, and if reports that Tom Brady's recovery is going slowly are correct, New England might have to throw Cassel a fat one-year deal.

9. Atlanta Falcons: Not the way you would like to handle the Rams at home going into the playoffs, but they should beat the Cardinals in round one.

10. Minnesota Vikings: Granted, it was against some of the Giants back-ups. But the Vikings made a pretty nice 4th-quarter comeback Sunday, and clinched the NFC North.

11. Philadelphia Eagles: They have played a lot better in December, but this big win over Dallas isn't enough to wash that performance against Washington out of my memory.

12. San Diego Chargers: I guess you have to give them credit for fighting and getting back into the mix. They still aren't that good.

13. Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo and Brett Favre looked a lot alike in the last few weeks. And they both cost their teams a shot at the playoffs.

14. Arizona Cardinals: Maybe the most one-dimensional team in the NFL. Probably won't win a playoff game.

15. Houston Texans: I like Matt Schuab and Andre Johnson is the best receiver in the league. Steve Slaton looks to be their running back for a few years also. If they can improve on defense, they will be a contender next year. (Yes, everybody said the exact same thing last year. It's true.)

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bucs were one of the more balanced teams for a lot of this season, but the run defense wore down, and Jeff Garcia couldn't stay healthy. I think they will challenge the NFC South again next season.

17. Chicago Bears: The Bears defense was simply terrible. They are the biggest reason this team missed the playoffs. And, really, the only really they even hung around was because of some weird special teams plays.

18. Denver Broncos: Their defense was awful all year, and it didn't come through Sunday night.

19. New York Jets: At 8-3 they were on the fast track to an AFC East title and maybe even a first-round bye. Then all of their weaknesses got exposed, over and over. Brett Favre needs to retire. The Jets should look at what Aaron Rodgers did, and hope that Clemens can be the man by 2010.

20. New Orleans: Aside from some individual performances, the Saints were a big disappointment.

21. San Francisco 49ers: Mike Singletary got this team to play with some guts in the second half of the season. I think they are a better team than most people know.

22. Washington: They need more from the quarterback position.

23. Buffalo Bills: Overachieved for a little while, but came down to Earth hard. Will have to start finishing drives before they can be taken seriously. 

24. Oakland Raiders: A pretty solid defense, a quarterback who is almost ready to step up and be the man, and a couple good running backs. 8-8 next year?

25. Green Bay Packers: They had some of the same problems last year, but Brett Favre helped hide them. I don't think he would have made much difference this year.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars: Somewhere along the line this team completely lost focus, and despite a couple nice efforts at the end of the year, I would be worried about them were I a fan.

27. Cincinnati Bengals: If they had played as hard as a unit with Carson Palmer, they might have stayed relevant for a little while. 

28. Seattle Seahawks: I might buy the injury argument with this team, but with everybody healthy could they have accounted for even half of their 12 losses? Doubtful.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: This team is so young. They took a lot of lumps this year. Hopefully Tony Gonzalez gets a chance somewhere else next year, because he can still play.

30. Cleveland Browns: I am really shocked by how bad the Browns are. Last year was a fluke, apparently.

31. St. Louis Rams: I feel like St. Louis has a couple nice pieces. Marc Bulger probably needs to be on a good team to be an elite quarterback. This team has a long way to go.

32. Detroit Lions: I don't know that there is anything to say about the Lions.

NFC North Champions

Ready for the Worst

I arrived in New York much like one starting over would arrive anywhere new; I had a suitcase and an address in my hands, and was having trouble deciding which streets went north and south. I was as excited as I was apprehensive, as sure as I was unsure. Manhattan is somewhere around 1,100 miles away from the Twin Cities, and the difference goes beyond geographical.

If you can believe it, the Vikings play at 1 p.m. here—maybe obvious to those with a basic understanding of time zones and Minnesota’s geographical relation to New York. Sadly, the time difference (however indistinguishable from the team’s vantage) appears to have little bearing on their play. Every fall Sunday in New York the streets are spotted haphazardly with the colors of jerseys from teams across the country. The Bengals, the Eagles, the Cardinals—you name it. In the West Village there is a bar owned by a Packer fan, a place where those beer-swilling, foamed-headed fans gather each week (although, certainly a person whose blood runs as purple as this writers’ would have no reason to further investigate said establishment.)

And what of us Vikings followers? Those downtrodden, cynical, forever-on-the-verge-of-giving-up fans that hardly make it out of their tree stands most Sunday afternoons? It is no overstatement: purple and gold jerseys are few and far between east of the St. Croix. After finding a suitably empty bar in North Brooklyn, I bunkered down each week on a stool in the corner, ready to watch the Minnesota Vikings alone in the largest city in this country.

To my surprise, that scene was broken by the arrival of some other dislocated Midwesterners. First, it was, most unfortunately, a Packer fan. A Milwaukee native and University of Minnesota grad, this Packer fan at least had the courtesy to ignore me. But each week the Viking fans showed their faces at that odd 1 p.m. start time. In flannel jackets no less, one even sporting camouflage hunting pants. One day I turned to find Craig Finn, that Twins-loving, rock band-fronting singer from the Hold Steady. Here, I thought, is a slice of home, Minneapolis on a bar stool beside me.

He had more to say about Minnesota’s professional baseball team—and, in fairness, they had just completed a whirlwind week, sweeping the rival White Sox before squandering a spot at the playoffs—than the purple ones. And the Twins are a decidedly more pleasant topic placed beside a Vikings-Lions game in October. Our Twins are the underdogs that never quit, a collection of no-names that can’t stop winning. Facing very realistic bad expectations, they came out of the first season post-Torii Hunter just one game out of the playoffs. Meanwhile, the 0-4 Lions were beating our other state representatives.

That difference is a little hard to come to terms with. On one hand, the Twins are everything that is right with the sport of baseball; they are a small-market team that always overachieves; they draft well, they use their farm system well, and they have one of the most traditional and fundamental-leaning coaches in the majors in Ron Gardenhire. We love their players. We love Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and we loved Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have recently been cast as a group of delinquents. Drugs, boats, fights—though it is hard to imagine them landing a punch, if their quarterbacks are any indicator of their collective accuracy. Ownership ponies-up huge contracts to players who may or may not actually return that investment. And they lose. They lose in the most painful ways possible. They fumble, they give up ridiculous touchdowns to punt returners, twice in one game (OK—so they won that game. But still!). Their head coach so closely resembles a former sitcom character (think military father figure), that one sometimes is ready to forgive his bad challenges and dubious play-calling; if only he really were Major Dad. At least we would know that it was a failed experiment, a PR-ploy, anything but reality.

The now Vikings find themselves poised on the brink of the playoffs, one victory away from a home wildcard game. To make it worse, they don’t even have to win to get in; if Chicago loses its last game the Vikings can back in to the 2008 NFL playoffs. The Vikings have lost some unfathomable number of potential playoff-clinching games in the last five or six years, including last week at home against Atlanta, and could buttress their reputation as perennial choke-artists this week with a loss. Let’s just say that an entire fan base is more than prepared for that unbearable result.

As for the fans, rest assured, the old saying is true: You can take the Viking fan out of Minnesota, but you can’t take Minnesota out of the Viking fan. I’ll be right there with the rest of them, every Sunday, that rag-tag bunch that call themselves Vikings fans (not publicly, if we can avoid it). We’ll be the ones shaking our heads for three hours, asking “What was that?” every other play.

Week 17

No Playoff Implications:

Kansas City (2-13) at Cincinnati (3-11-1): Here are two teams that probably should have three or four more wins. They held leads in most of their losses, especially the Chiefs, who seem to blow a 4th quarter lead every week. I think Kansas City will have the advantage in this battle of awful. Chiefs 31-27.

Detroit (0-15) at Green Bay (5-10): Is anybody completely shocked by the Lions record? Maybe in the context of an NFL season in the age of parity, yes, but the Lions really are this bad. Their defense seems incapable of improving from year to year. The Packers record doesn't surprise me all that much either, and I'm not sure Brett Favre would have taken this team to the playoffs. Packers 17-13.

Washington (8-7) at San Francisco (6-9): Imagine it is 1987. Joe Gibbs is bringing his Washington team into San Francisco to take on Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, and Jerry Rice. That might be the only way to tolerate this game. Then again, it might be a nice hard-nosed, smash-mouth type of game. Washington 13-9.

Seattle (4-11) at Arizona (8-7): Seattle has probably played better than their record the whole year. Little consolation for their fans, I'm sure. I think the Cardinals are reeling a little bit right now. They are so one-dimensional, it can't be a surprise to see them drop to 8-7. I like Seattle in this game. Seahawks 24-17.

Cleveland (4-11) at Pittsburgh (11-4): The Steelers failed to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That is OK for them. They have proven themselves at home and on the road all season long. A rematch in Nashville should be more frightening for the Titans. Meanwhile, the Browns keep going through quarterbacks, now going with Bruce Gradkowski. Steelers 20-10.

Tennessee (13-2) at Indianapolis (11-4): Obviously there are games with playoff-bound teams. But this one, and the previous two, are games where neither team can change their post season seed. Who knows what either of these teams will do in this game? It could be a preview of a playoff game, but not a very telling one. Colts 24-16.

One Fights, Another Spoils:

St. Louis (2-13) at Atlanta (10-5): St. Louis can't knock Atlanta out of the playoffs, but they can make them go on the road in round one. Falcons 35-14.

New England (10-5) at Buffalo (7-8): A lost season for the Bills. They have a chance to make it the same for New England (even though Tom Brady's injury is the real reason for that). The Patriots are playing really well right now, and if Miami loses, I like the Pats to challenge either Pittsburgh or Tennessee in the second round. Patriots 30-17.

Carolina (11-4) at New Orleans (8-7): Drew Brees isn't going to need any motivation this week. He is a gamer. Carolina could drop from the 2 seed to the 5. That should scare them into a win. Panthers 21-14.

Oakland (4-11) at Tampa Bay (9-6): Oakland hasn't played two good games consecutively in years. Tampa Bay hasn't played any good games in a while. Still, at home, with the playoffs on the line, I like the Bucs. Bucs 20-17.

Chicago (9-6) at Houston (7-8): The biggest question here is whether Houston will continue to experiment with players and plays. Last week against Oakland they did a lot of new things, and lost. The Bears don't appear to be playing all that desperate, but they have been playing bad teams. I think Houston will throw for 350 yards. Texans 31-24.

Jacksonville (5-10) at Baltimore (10-5): I pleasantly surprised by Jacksonville's slight turn around here at the end of a forgettable season. With coaches like Jack Del Rio and Mike Tice, it should be expected. They played pretty tough against Indianapolis. Baltimore's defense will torture them this week. Ravens 23-10.

New York Giants (12-3) at Minnesota (9-6): The Giants have nothing to play for. The Vikings need to win this game to get into the playoffs, save Brad Childress' job, and at least somewhat put off that choke reputation of theirs. I think New York will start pulling people in the 3rd quarter. Vikings 27-21.

The Big Ones:

Miami (10-5) at New York Jets (9-6): As much as the Jets seem to be throwing this year away (ahem, Favre), playing at home against Miami is ideal for them. This should be low scoring, and as long as Favre doesn't have to throw the ball with under four minutes in the game, they should win. Jets 24-20.

Dallas (9-6) at Philadelphia (8-6-1): Three months ago these teams looked pretty good. Now they are both going to be done a week from now, if not sooner. I guess I like the Eagles in this game, mostly because Tony Romo is going to throw the ball away a few times. Eagles 27-23.

Denver (8-7) at San Diego (7-8): What a cruel joke. A head-to-head match-up in Week 17, with both teams fighting for the same playoff spot. Why a joke? Because they are 15-15 combined, and the winner almost surely will lose to Indianapolis in the playoffs. This game will be tense and exciting, but ultimately, it is a match-up of the two worst teams still in playoff contention. Broncos 34-31.

Late Rankings

1. Tennessee Titans: Didn't see that coming. Their defense might be able to carry them.

2. New York Giants: Way to snap back into it in time to save home-field advantage. Now they will probably rest for the Vikings.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: I'll give them a break. With this schedule, you are going to lose on the road a couple times.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Win, win, win.

5. Baltimore Ravens: Huge win over Dallas, the kind that should get them a ton of respect. 

6. Carolina Panthers: I don't see this team going far in the playoffs.

7. New England Patriots: They look pretty good to me. Too bad they are going to miss the playoffs.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan is the real deal, but their defense is going to lose them a playoff game.

9. Miami Dolphins: About as consistent this year as any other team.

10. Minnesota Vikings: No other team gives away more games that they should win.

12. Chicago Bears: They are starting to look destined for a playoff spot. Or maybe the Packers and Saints are just proving how bad they are.

26. Green Bay Packers: What an awful, awful second half. Losing streaks don't just happen.

28. Oakland Raiders: Nice, unexpected win over Houston. Will they reach .500 next year? Doubt it.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: This team cannot hold on to a lead. Ever.

30. Cleveland Browns: Bruce Gradkowski gets the start this week. Not sure what to say.

31. St. Louis Rams: So the Dolphins added Chad Pennington and have won nine more games than they did last year. Maybe the Rams should look into signing Matt Hasselbeck, their version of a long-time divisional rival...

32. Detroit Lions

Since I was a little late with this, I added Sports Illustrated, which comes out with their rankings on Wednesdays.

ESPN.com: MIN-11, CHI-13, G.B.-24

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-10, CHI-13, G.B.-25

CBS Sports: MIN-13, CHI-14, G.B.-25

Don Banks (SI): MIN-11, CHI-13, G.B.-25

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-9, CHI-11, G.B.-16

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-11, CHI-14, G.B.-24

FOX Sports: MIN-12, CHI-13, G.B.-25

Vikings 17 Falcons 24

I sometimes wonder if there is another team in the NFL that is as frustrating as the Vikings. For at least two years the Vikings have played games where they appeared to completely outplay their opponent, yet lost because of literally one or two plays.

Yesterday against the Falcons, the Vikings backed up that reputation to the extreme. They coughed up four fumbles and lost despite mostly containing Michael Turner, dominating the Falcons offense in the second half, and having some really nice performances on offense. It is the kind of game that one can't really take anything from; Minnesota looked so good in so many parts of the game, but those four fumbles pretty much wreck the entire week for them.

The Falcons looked good on their opening drive. They came out in a no-huddle offense and marched down the field pretty easily, helped by a couple Vikings penalties. They went up 7-0. Chester Taylor then fumbled the ensuing kick-off, and brought it out only to the 10-yard line. But, miraculously, Tarvaris Jackson looked very sharp in leading a 90-yard drive that ended with a Visanthe Shiancoe touchdown. The Vikings defense settled down and forced a three-and-out. Then the game got stupid.

Bernard Berrian decided not to call for a fair catch with a man in his face, and bobbled the ball. Atlanta recovered and took advantage of the short field to take a 14-7 lead. Minnesota responded with another long drive. Then Adrian Peterson lost the ball at the 17 and gave Atlanta possession. Later in the half, the Vikings were at midfield and Peterson tried to close his arms around a handoff that wasn't there yet, and Atlanta again recovered a fumble. Lucky for the Vikings, Atlanta was content to let the clock expire and settle for a field goal, leaving the score at 17-7 at half. 

The second went almost exactly the same. The Vikings opening drive again looked sharp, until Jackson was sacked and the ball somehow flew backward 20 yards. Atlanta went three-and out.

The Vikings got one first down, but then Matt Birk snapped the ball too early, and Tarvaris Jackson didn't see it. He chased it down and the Vikings were forced to punt. Atlanta took over at their own 49, and used the short field to score another touchdown. This score was perhaps the last straw in the game; Ryan fumbled the ball at the goal line, and two Vikings failed to pick it up before guard Justin Blalock fell on it for the Falcons. 24-7 Atlanta.

From that point on, Atlanta did not earn a first down, while the Vikings tacked on about 150 more yards of offense, but could muster only 10 points. The no-call on a deep pass to Sydney Rice, a play that was surely pass interference, is hard to complain about after the Vikings had already given the game away.

And now both John Clayton and Michael Silver are calling for Gus Frerotte. One of my biggest pet peeves is national sports writers talking about games they didn't watch. These two clearly looked at the stats, saw that Jackson was credited for two fumbles (even though one was obviously Peterson's fault), and now are saying Frerotte will give them a better chance to win. forget the stats (they were pretty good for Jackson). Here is the difference between Jackson and Frerotte right now: Yes, Jackson turned the ball over, but it was kind of flukey play, more of a physical mistake than a mental one. go back and watch Frerotte this entire season. He makes terrible, indefensible mistakes every single game. He throws balls into spots that he shouldn't even be looking. When Jackson plays bad, he tends to get sacked a lot and throw a lot of incompletions. But he isn't playing bad right now. He is throw great balls, and running effectively. And one thing is sure: Jackson can make a lot of throws that Frerotte cannot. Fact.

Adrian Peterson needs to either be benched or fined. You cannot be an NFL running back and fumble this much. He is costing the team victories. He is much more at fault in this game than Jackson. Every running back from Pop Warner and up is taught to keep his arms open until the ball is put into his stomach. Peterson couldn't even do that Sunday. He needs to start running like he knows there is a football in his hands. Unacceptable.

Week 15

There are three types of games this week. I've broken them down by how many of the participants are playoff eligible.

Completely Irrelevant:

Cincinnati at Cleveland: This game will be really hard to watch. Two quarterbacks that might never start another NFL game after this season. Bengals 20-16.

San Francisco at St. Louis: There is something sort of endearing about the 49ers since Mike Singletary took over. 49ers 27-21.

New Orleans at Detroit: The Saints are out of it at 7-7. The Lions are out of it for about five more years. Is Calvin Johnson going to be one of those good players that never gets a shot at the title? Kind of like Herman Moore, now that I think about it. Weird. Saints 34-28.

Houston at Oakland: At least the Raiders have a good kick returner. Texans 35-17.

Relevant:

Indianapolis at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are bad, but they finally won last week. The Colts keep doing it ugly, but that is OK in December. Colts 28-14.

Miami at Kansas City: The Chiefs are going to make it hard on Miami, but the Dolphins are learning how to weather the storm. Dolphins 17-13.

Buffalo at Denver: Buffalo probably won't even make it hard on Denver. Broncos 31-16.

New York Jets at Seattle: Seneca Wallace can keep the Seahawks in this one. Will Brett Favre keep the Jets in it? Jets 24-17.

Green Bay at Chicago: The Packers crushed Chicago in their first meeting. I think they can do it again. Packers 21-16.

Completely Relevant:

Baltimore at Dallas: If nothing else, being a Ravens fan this year has been extremely tense. They are built to play close games, and they are playing good teams. I think they are going to push Tony Romo around. Ravens 13-10.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee: The Titans are not ready for the type of game Pittsburgh is going to bring. Steelers 20-13.

Arizona at New England: The Patriots have been beatable at home, but I like their defense against the weird Cardinals. Patriots 27-24.

San Diego at Tampa Bay: The Chargers look inspired suddenly, just as Tampa looks uninspired. Toss a coin... Bucs 21-20.

Atlanta at Minnesota: Even without Pat Williams the Vikings front four is pretty stout. I think Tarvaris Jackson and Adrian Peterson will win this game. Vikings 30-20.

Philadelphia at Washington: It won't be easy or pretty. Eagles 30-21.

Carolina at New York Giants: Something tells me the Giants can come out of this slump OK. And Jake Delhomme is not going to be standing around all day in New York. Giants 21-17.

Shuffle the ranks

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: It is impossible to understate how well they have played against a grueling schedule. Suddenly they can steal the number one seed in the AFC from Tennessee.

2. Tennessee Titans: Albert Haynesworth injured? Terrible news for the Titans.

3. New York Giants: I think they will be OK in a couple weeks, but it would be nice if they could figure it out against Carolina, before they blow home-field advantage.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Not a pretty season for the Colts, but they are going to win a playoff game.

5. Carolina Panthers: Running game is incredible right now, and making Jake Delhomme look good again.

6. Baltimore Ravens: Same story as the Steelers, but they aren't quite good enough to get past this schedule.

7. New England Patriots: Probably too high for the Patriots, but I am impressed by how they just keep staying in it.

8. Dallas Cowboys: Have played well three weeks straight against good teams.

9. Philadelphia Eagles: Storming back into the mix.

10. Atlanta Falcons: Nice division win, but they have to win on the road in Minnesota.

11. Minnesota Vikings: They will miss Pat Williams against the Falcons and Michael Turner, but I think the Vikings offense will win this game.

17. Chicago Bears: Tough game this week against the Packers.

25. Green Bay Packers: Oops.

28. Cincinatti Bengals: What a nice win, even if Washington has completely collapsed.

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Could they be worse in the 4th quarter?

30. Oakland Raiders: Could they be worse?

31. St. Louis Rams: The Rams could not be worse.

32. Detroit Lions.

Pretty obvious how this would shake out:

ESPN.com: MIN-12, CHI-1, G.B.-25

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-7, CHI-17, G.B.-25

CBS Sports: MIN-8, CHI-16, G.B.-24

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-7, CHI-12, G.B.-15

FOX Sports: MIN-12, CHI-13, G.B.-25

Vinnie Iyer (The Sporting News): MIN-10, CHI-17, G.B.-24

No field goal?

This week didn't have a ton of intriguing  match-ups, but the games sure turned out great. After watching about half the games from this week, I'm wondering a few things:

How does Jeff Fisher not attempt a game-winning 49-yard field goal? Rob Bironas is a pretty solid kicker, and 49 yards should be within any kicker's range, especially inside. And, yes, there would have been two minutes left for Matt Schaub to try to get Houston in range for their own field goal attempt, but aren't the Titans among the league's elite teams because of their defense? A really strange move, one that one wouldn't expect from Jeff Fisher. After the Titans failed to convert on 4th down, Steve Slayton sealed the game on the next play with a 34-yard run.

How did the referees overturn the no-score call on that Santonio Holmes catch? It sure was close, and if any of the ball was ever across the goal line, had Holmes gained possession yet? Considering that the call on the field was no touchdown, how did they see enough to overturn that call? I am baffled, and it may have cost Baltimore a first-round bye.

Speaking of Santonio Holmes, how did the Steelers end up with a huge gain on his muffed punt? And how come every time there is a fumble, Ed Reed recovers it?

How come Randy Moss makes a lot of really nice catches, and nobody says anything about it anymore? For some reason Kevin Harlan kept pointing out whenever Randy Moss made a block for Sammy Morris. But nothing about his great grabs. 

How could the Jets look so good while going up 14-3 on Buffalo, and then need J.P. Losman to make one of the worst plays in this NFL season to win the game? Brett Favre has to stop throwing stupid interceptions. This team might end up making the playoffs, but there will be five other better teams in the AFC playoffs.

Are the Packers really this bad? 

How did Washington and Buffalo look so good earlier? They really are this bad.

Is Tarvaris Jackson playing well enough to keep Gus Frerotte on the bench the rest of the season? I have hard time believing that Brad Childress will be comfortable starting Jackson in a wildcard game if Frerotte is healthy enough to go. Jackson has played pretty well in his two games back, but he hasn't been asked to do much. Today against Arizona he was given a lead and a great performance by his defense. Personally, I don't think Frerotte has been playing that well anyway.

Week 15

New Orleans at Chicago: If it is just cold, the Saints passing game should be OK. Throw in some wetness or snow or wind, different story. Pierre Thomas is clearly the best running back on that team right now. Saints 28-20.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: I like the Bucs to bounce back from that beating they took in Carolina. Yes, Atlanta can run too, but Tampa normally can play the run just fine. Bucs 27-20

Washington at Cincinnati: The Bengals are a nice softy for Washington, who has been struggling lately. Washington 20-7.

Seattle at St. Louis: Two horrible teams. I see Senaca Wallace repeating that nice performance against New England. Seahawks 27-14.

San Francisco at Miami: The 49ers are getting it together, but Miami has done well in close games. Dolphins 17-13

Buffalo at New York Jets: A get-well game for the Jets. The Bills jsut can't stop this free-fall. Jets 30-10.

Detroit at Indianapolis: Calvin Johnson is having a nice year at least. Colts 31-20.

San Diego at Kansas City: I like how the Chiefs have fought all year, but San Diego does OK against lesser teams, not that there are a lot of them out there. Chargers 27-24.

Green Bay at Jacksonville: Possible get-well game for Green Bay, unless they let Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor run wild. Packers 34-28.

Tennessee at Houston: A lot of people are going to predict an upset here, but I'm thinking the Tennessee won't take their foot off the pedal just yet. Titans 24-20.

Minnesota at Arizona: If the Vikings' starting quarterback can hold on to the ball, they should do fine. They'll have to do something creative on defense, because Arizona shouldn't even try to run the ball against them. Vikings 24-21.

Denver at Carolina: I don't like Denver's run defense against anybody, especially Carolina. Panthers 20-13.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Wouldn't it be wild if the Ravens pulled this one out? Unfortunately this is a strength vs strength match-up, the Steelers are better across the board. Steelers 16-9.

New England at Oakland: The Raiders will stay close for a while, but Matt Cassel can put them away. Randy Moss has never played against a former team before. Patriots 24-16.

New York Giants at Dallas: I don't like Tony Romo against a good defense, not when Dallas can't run the ball at all.Giants 28-17.

Cleveland at Philadelphia: Ken Dorsey. Eagles 30-13.

Upsetting Stat, Part II

Oakland 3-10

Seattle 2-11

St. Louis 2-11

Kansas City 2-11

Cincinnati 1-11-1

Detroit 0-13

Last week I brought up these records because it has been a long time since so many teams have had such bad records. My question was: Will 2008 see the most 3 or less-win teams in the history of the NFL (since 1978 really, when the season was expanded to 16 games; also exclude 1982, when only nine games were played). Well, they all lost this week.

Detroit was close to Minnesota the whole way through. Cincinnati and Oakland got destroyed. St. Louis and Seattle played tough against better teams. Kansas City stuck with Denver for a little bit. Aside from Detroit, the other teams can still get out of this gutter. We'll see.

Another ranking

I decided that only showing a Top 5 is a bit of a cop-out this late in the year, with things so tight. The rest of the way I will give the Top 10. Philadelphia is going to have to win one more before I elevate them. That losing streak was just too ugly. The Jets will have to win and actually play well before they get back in there. 

1. Tennessee Titans: I have to move them up simply because they only have played poorly in one game.

2. New York Giants: No need to worry just yet, though Dallas, Carolina, and Minnesota will all challenge them down the stretch.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: They just keep chipping away at it. Amazing defense.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Quietly having a really nice year. Should at least win a playoff game.

5. Carolina Panthers: They could steal home field advantage from the Giants if they win out.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I thought Tampa Bay would win on Monday night. But I didn't account for them giving up a million rushing yards.

7. Baltimore Ravens. Such a play-making defense. Hard to see them making it late January, but a great season for an old team with a rookie coach.

8. New England Patriots: As up and down as this year has been, I think you have to keep an eye on them the rest of the way. 

9. Atlanta Falcons: Tough loss, but they can still secure a wildcard spot, barring a huge collapse. Watch out for Philadelphia.

10. Dallas Cowboys: Tony Romo definitely makes them a better team, but he will lose a game for them now and then. They better hope he doesn't do it again this year.

13. Minnesota Vikings: I have a hard time thinking they will win more than one more game, which should open the door for Chicago.

18. Chicago Bears: They have as real a shot as the Vikings have, as long as they can take care of the Packers and Texans.

24. Green Bay Packers: The defense really sucks. That is a lot of yards to give up.

28. Oakland Raiders: I'm not sure there is even hope in the near future here.

29. Seattle Seahawks: They seem to keep games close at least.

30. Cincinnati Bengals: What an awful loss. The Colts crushed them.

31. St. Louis Rams: They are at least staying close the last couple weeks.

32. Detroit Lions

Green Bay continues to fall, their highest ranking coming from Jeff Sagarin, whose computer put them at 15. Minnesota managed two Top 10 votes.

ESPN.com: MIN-15, CHI-19, G.B.-23

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-9, CHI-17, G.B.-22

CBS Sports: MIN-10, CHI-16, G.B.-23

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-9, CHI-12, G.B.-15

FOX Sports: MIN-14, CHI-17, G.B.-21

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-11, CHI-18, G.B. 23

Vikings 20, Lions 16

Sunday's victory over the Detroit Lions was pretty typical for the Vikings. They played about one good half of football total, committed some really confusing and infuriating penalties, turned the ball over, and still put together two huge fourth-quarter drives to win the game.

After 30 minutes, it didn't really look like the Vikings were ready to play football. They came out as flat as an NFL team possibly can, and that is saying a lot for a team that generally struggles in the first quarter. Almost every Lions-Vikings game seems to go the same. The Lions play as well as they are capable of, which isn't all that good, and Minnesota does what they can to keep it close, usually by turning the balling over and giving up big plays. That was today in a nutshell.

Stepping back a little, one will notice that the Lions managed just 267 yards of offense and were 3-11 on 3rd downs (one of those came on a Vikings penalty). The Vikings contributed three first downs to the Lions on penalties today. The Lions were also o-2 on 4th downs, both times electing not to kick short field goals with one of the the best kickers in the league.

But the Vikings ran the ball very well, and Tarvaris Jackson looked pretty good filling in for Gus Frerotte, who is slowly falling apart with each week. Jackson was 8 of 10 for 105 yards in the second half, including an 11-yard touchdown pass to Visanthe Shiancoe to put the Vikings up 17-13. Jackson did make one incredibly bad decision, tossing a ball that fluttered in the air after he was hit on a throw into quadruple-coverage. Somehow the ball fell incomplete, though a few Lions had a chance to catch it. But, Jackson did show why is he capable of being an NFL quarterback: He has a huge arm, and when he is accurate, can make any throw (that is, he can put the ball in any spot). He hit Sidney Rice for 15 yards on the sideline to convert a 3rd and three, and on the Vikings final drive he found Bobby Wade for 15 yards on 3rd and four.

Chester Taylor made the most of his short time in the game. He ran 17 yards for a 3rd quarter touchdown, and caught a screen pass and scrambled for 15 yards in the final few minutes. The team has to be at least a little concerned about Adrian Peterson's three fumbles. Another time a fumble was ruled on the field, though the call was over-turned, as Peterson was clearly down when the ball came out. Still, the Vikings had to use a challenge because of it. This was the first time coach Brad Childress stuck with Peterson following fumbles. Down the stretch Peterson stayed in the game, though Childress has been known to use Taylor more in games were Peterson has fumbled. 

Now the Vikings are one game closer to their first NFC North title. The Packers are basically done now, though they can play spoilers by beating Chicago. The Vikings could probably win just one more game and still win the division, assuming Chicago stumbles once or twice more. The Green Bay-Chicago game will be key. If Chicago loses that game, they will fall to 3-3 in the NFC North, and the Vikings would then hold a tie breaker. Jared Allen's health will be important after the cheap shot he took to his left knee. 

Imagine if Minnesota had held on against Indianapolis, and not fumbled the game away in Tampa Bay. They would be sitting even prettier  right now, though I think any Vikings fan will take where they are now.

Upsetting Stat

Oakland: 3-9

Kansas City: 2-10

Seattle: 2-10

St. Louis: 2-10

Cincinnati: 1-11-1

Detroit: 0-12

Is this significant? Six teams with three or fewer wins. The interesting part about it is that the last time more than three teams finished with three or less wins was 1991. That is a long time. In 2003 every team had at least four wins. Over the past 10 years 20 teams have finished with three or fewer wins. Detroit has been that team three times. Cleveland is the only one during that time to do it in back-to-back seasons, 1999 and 2000 (They were an expansion team in '99).

So how likely is it that we will see more than three of these awful records this year? Well we have one already, the Lions. Here is how the other five look heading into the last month of the season:

Oakland Raiders: 2-10

The Raiders need only one victory to avoid this dubious distinction. They might not get it, especially if they lose to San Diego tonight. They host New England and Houston in the next two weeks, then travel to Tampa Bay. Houston is a possible win, but Tampa likely will be fighting either for a division title or playoff seeding. 

My Guess: 3-13

Kansas City Chiefs: 2-10

The Chiefs are a big reason why this field is so large; they beat Oakland last week, keep them in contention for a 3-13 year. Their schedule isn't too heavy the rest of the way — at Denver, home for San Diego and Miami, and at Cincinnati to close the year out— but, then again, no schedule is easy for a team with two wins going into December. The most they will win is two games.

My Guess: 4-12

Seattle Seahawks: 2-10

Seattle is going to lose three more games: vs New England, the Jets, and at Arizona. They also travel to St. Louis. If Seattle wins that game, both will finish 3-13 or worse.

My Guess: 2-14

St. Louis Rams: 2-10

It is a safe bet that the Rams will lose at Arizona and at Atlanta. I think they will win at home against Seattle. Their other game is also at home, against San Francisco. I think they'll lose that one.

My Guess: 3-13

Cincinnati Bengals: 1-10-1

The Bengals only shots at winning this again this year are at Cleveland and home against Kansas City in Weeks 16 and 17. Until then, they travel to Indianapolis and host Washington. Looks rough for them

My Guess: 1-14-1

So, if my predictions are right, there would be five teams with records of 3-13 or worse. Yikes.

Other stats on this stupid subject:

The teams who have finished 3-13 or worse the most since the 16-game schedule was introduced in 1978:

Indianapolis and Cincinnati five times each. Detroit, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans four times each.

Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Denver, Jacksonville, Green Bay, and Chicago have never lost more than 12 games in a season. The Chiefs obviously could do it this year.

On the other side, San Francisco has finished 13-3 or better eight times since 1978. Denver has done it four times.

The Jets, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland, Houston, Detroit, Arizona, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans have never won 13 games in a season. The Bucs and Panthers still could do it this season.

Miami, San Diego, Seattle, Minnesota, and Philadelphia have accomplished each feat exactly once. 

Week 14

Oakland at San Diego: It's that time of year when we start getting games where both teams are completely out of contention. Last week we had Oakland playing Kansas City, and Houston hosting Jacksonville. Chargers 27-16.

Jacksonville at Chicago: At the beginning of the year this would have looked like a compelling, hard-hitting match-up. Eh, not so much. Bears 20-13.

Minnesota at Detroit: This could end up being Detroit's best chance at a win this year. The Vikings need to carry that momentum from Sunday night into this week, especially without Pat and Kevin Williams playing. Vikings 17-13.

Houston at Green Bay: This looks like a chance for the Packers to get well at home. But they aren't all that great at home anymore, and Houston can throw the ball around. Packers 24-21.

Cleveland at Tennessee: Ken Dorsey? Titans 30-13.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Ryan Fitzpatrick? Colts 30-13.

Atlanta at New Orleans: This should be a good game. The Saints are little unpredictable, but I think this is their week to overcome themselves. Saints 31-30.

Philadelphia at New York Giants: The Giants are number 1. Giants 24-14.

Kansas City at Denver: Denver seems to be losing these kinds of games this season. Broncos 30-17.

Miami at Buffalo: Here is my wacky, no reasoning at all behind it pick of the week: Bills 17-13.

New York Jets at San Francisco: Jets 24-16.

New England Seattle: New England always wins the week after a loss. Seattle won't break up that trend. Patriots 34-17.

St. Louis at Arizona: Arizona has to win this one, even though they will wrap up the division this week anyway. Cardinals 27-20.

Dallas at Pittsburgh: Both these teams have rough schedules coming up. The Steelers are responding well to the pressure. I like them to shut down Tony Romo. Steelers 20-17.

Washington at Baltimore: The Ravens defense will make Jason Campbell look helpless. Ravens 24-9.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: This is probably the hardest game to pick all season. I just don't like Jake Delhomme against a good defense, especially one that won't let DeAngelo Williams score four touchdowns. Bucs 20-16.

Top Five, Bottom Five

1. New York Giants: Best team in the league, not even close.

2. Tennessee Titans: One of the easiest wins I have ever seen. They should wrap up the AFC South soon.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: Toughest schedule in the league, and they just keep winning. Really one of the better defenses in recent memory, at least statistically. 

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I still feel like after Pittsburgh, the next six or seven spots are a jumble. Dallas is really close to getting back into the Top Five. Tampa is playing as consistent as anybody.

5. Indianapolis Colts: An ugly win against Cleveland, but when a team keeps winning, that means they are good.

12. Minnesota Vikings: If they had Kevin and Pat Williams the rest of the way, and could beat Detroit this week, the division would pretty much be theirs. But they almost certainly won't have those two, and without them, even Detroit is not a guaranteed win.

19. Chicago Bears: They have officially come back to Earth. They did a good job up piling up wins before this bad stretch though, and still have a shot at the playoffs.

21. Green Bay Packers: Their schedule is seriously weak, and that is their only hope. Houston, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Detroit are all very beatable, even for the struggling Packers. They'll have to win all four.

28. Oakland Raiders: Not sure what to say about the Raiders. They show up every week, but they aren't that good. Nice defense though. 

29. Seattle Seahawks: Mike Holmgren should have sat this year out. He could have started fresh in 2009 with San Francisco, a team that he might be able to take to 9-7 or so. Instead, he either won't get that year off, or he won't get a shot with the 49ers.

30. Cincinnati Bengals: I think the Bengals and Chiefs deserve some sort of consolation pat on the back for fighting so hard despite never having a chance in 2008. A lot of injuries here, too.

31. St. Louis Rams: The Rams are actually almost as bad as the Lions, if you can believe that. It is too bad for Marc Bulger, who is having an awful year. I would like to see him get a shot on a better team, because he is a legit quarterback, probably could win a Super Bowl with a decent team around him.

32. Detroit Lions: 

ESPN.com: MIN-15, CHI-19, G.B.-20

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-9, CHI-17, G.B. 20

CBS Sports: MIN- 13, CHI-18, G.B.-21

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-8, G.B.-12, CHI-13

FOX Sports: MIN-14, CHI-18, G.B.-20

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): MIN-12, CHI-19, G.B.-21

Vikings 34 Bears 14

Disclaimer: This post is coming straight from the Minnesota Vikings fan in me.

Last night's victory over the Chicago Bears at the Metrodome was quite possibly one of my favorite Vikings games ever.  That is notable for a couple reasons: One, this year's team has been one of the most frustrating to watch, ever. Two, I don't think I can say that about any other game in during the Brad Childress-era. The Vikings, for the last years, have won ugly, and lost uglier. They are that team that should be winning, but can't seem to hold things together for more than 15 minutes at a time.

Sure, there have been some good ones with Childress. His one win over the Packers, this year, 28-27, was a nice win. Last year we saw a rash of blow-outs: The Vikings won 35-17 over San Diego, 41-17 over the Giants, 42-10 over the Lions, and 27-7 over the 49ers. In 2006, some wacky special teams plays helped us go 2-0 to start the season with wins against Washington and Carolina.

2002-2005, the Mike Tice years, had a slightly different feel. We were more of an underdog then, with much lower expectations. Simply put, everybody knew we were bad. The defense was awful. The 2002 season saw the team drop to 3-10 before winning the last three games in super exciting fashion: A last-second, 53-yard field goal from dinosaur kicker Gary Anderson, a make-or-break two-point conversation by Daunte Culpepper that lifted us over the Saints, and then a two-point conversion stop for our defense against Detroit in Week 17. 2003 was a disappointing year, but full of big wins on the way to 9-7. 2004 saw the vikings beat Green Bay in the Wildcard round. Enough said. 2005 saw a six-game winning streak.

Last night, the Vikings defied everything I have believed about them for years. They over came an early deficit. They pressure the quarterback for the entire game. They scored a 99-yard touchdown. They picked off Kyle Orton three times. They did all of that in one game. If that doesn't sound like much, then you haven't been paying attention to the Vikings for the past six or seven years.

If you get a chance to watch the highlights of that game, watch the end zone view of Bernard Berrian's 99-yard touchdown. I have rarely felt such pure, wild joy while watching football as I have been feeling watching the crowd realize how open he is with the ball in the air. The camera then follows his path to the end zone, and the Vikings bench is absolutely going nuts.I felt that way on the field twice in my playing career.

My senior year, we were the top dogs in our conference, and expected to go undefeated. We lost the first game. Our first home game, the following week, was against Stoughton. We were up by maybe 10 points in the fourth quarter, when our huge fullback suddenly burst through the line and ran alone 60 yards for the game-sealing touchdown. Zac Pettit was one of those guys who was bred for football, short, wide, and always looking to hit something. We were in a jumbo package, so I was on the sideline. When he got through the line and there was nobody in front of him, our entire team went nuts, and I felt a little choked up as I sprinted to meet him and everybody else in celebration. It was the start of a 10-game winning streak.

When I played club-football at Marquette University, we were the definition of rag-tag. We had about 20 guys on the team, some who hadn't ever played football. One of the guys was named Jason Harding. He was 27 or 28, and hadn't been enrolled at the University for at least five years, but played anyway. He started at wide receiver opposite of me, and played in the nickel package. 

We generally got beat up. Our small, unorganized team was going against 60-man junior varsity squads from schools around Wisconsin. The athleticism of those guys alone was enough to make it nearly impossible to win, especially since we hardly even practiced. On one long, demoralizing drive, some 19-year-old quarterback threw a pass into the end zone, and Harding picked it off. He was not that fast anymore at 27, but he somehow managed to rumble 101 yards into the end zone, probably our only score of the game. I remember going completely insane as he ran, for what felt like 15 seconds, down the opposite sideline. I lost my voice just from that play, screaming at him to score.

And that is the feeling the Vikings game me last night. It makes me smile just thinking about it. Jared Allen was incredible, and Adrian Peterson continues to prove that he is the best running back in the game. Gus Frerotte really only made one or two bad throws, and the secondary was great, other than the long touchdown they gave up in the first quarter. And a huge goalline stand.

In summary: An awesome game, one that might ease the sting of our eventual collapse. Without Kevin and Pat Williams, the Vikings might win only one more game this year. Tough, but at least we had this moment.

Glorious Sunday

I wasn't completely sold on Arizona beating the Eagles, but it just didn't look like Donovan McNabb was going to snap out of it yet. He did, in a big way. The Cardinals were never really in that game,  and Brian Westbrook went wild with four touchdowns. The same sentiment accompanied my picking the Jets over the Broncos. The hot Jets at home against a team that never really plays a complete game. And the Broncos crushed them.

The Jets, Patriots, and Bills, all AFC East pals, pretty much refused to win on Sunday. The Jets turned it over twice. The Bills coughed it up just once, but missed two gimme field goals after squandering red zone opportunities and lost to the 49ers 10-3. Meanwhile, the Patriots were fighting it out with Pittsburgh for about 29 minutes, before Randy Moss uncharacteristically dropped a touchdown pass, and then the entire team spent rest of the game putting the ball on the ground. Five turnovers led to a 33-10 loss. The Steelers outscored New England 23-0 in the second half.

The AFC East is now a complete cluster. The Jets remain in first at 8-4. New England and Miami are a game back at 7-5. The Bills are 6-6. We are ready to write off the Bills, but they play each of those teams one more time. Suppose they win all three? They will finish at least 9-7, and that might be good enough. But probably not. 

Almost all of the division races are going to be great to watch down the stretch. In the NFC East, Philadelphia gets to play every body once more, and Dallas will host the Giants in Week 15. The NFC South will see Atlanta travel to New Orleans and Tampa Bay in Carolina this week. After those games, there will be a team alone in first place (either T.B. or CAR), and New Orleans, with a loss, would basically be done. The following week Tampa Bay has to go to Atlanta, and in Week 17 the Panthers travel to New Orleans.

The AFC North race is tight. Pittsburgh is 9-3, Baltimore 8-4. They play in Week 15, at Baltimore. The Steelers won the first game this season, so a win there would wrap up the title, most likely. 

The other division races won't be as exciting. The AFC and NFC West divisions have been more or less won, by Denver and Arizona, respectively. The Titans have a three game lead over Indianapolis with four games left—including a Week 17 battle in Indiana. I expect Tennessee to clinch the division by then.

The NFC North could come down to the wire. But there are only three divisional match-ups left, and two of them feature Detroit. Green Bay goes to Chicago in Week 16. A Bears win there would surely end Green Bay's (5-7) playoff hopes. This one will be won outside of divisional games. 

Some random thoughts, mostly from the early games Sunday:

Derek Anderson seems in capable of throwing the ball downfield. He was checking down on almost every throw, and his guys were getting hit immediately. Give credit to the Colts defense.

Braylon Edwards has no confidence in his hands. Even his catches look a little shaky. 

Peyton Manning is going to continue to look like his old self if he continues to get six and seven seconds (slight exaggeration) to throw. How does he fumble on 4th and goal though?

The Packers are giving up a ton of huge plays all the sudden, on defense and special teams. And they sure are soft against the run. 

Panthers color-commentator Eugene Robinson was frustrated with the Packers defensive back's hands-on approach to coverage. Tramon Williams was flagged for defensive pass interference in the end zone in the first half (and a personal foul), and Robinson was exacerbated by the play:

"He held the entire way... His (Williams') left arm was holding Steve (Smith) on the back-shoulder play, prevent him from making a play." He went on for about a minute...

How many times can the Bills have huge, long, time-consuming drives that go for no points?They did it yesterday against San Francisco again. They did it a couple times at home against the Jets, the game that was the turning point in their season. 5-1 has turned into 6-6.

Slimfit, Make It Worse

Check out another review on Country Music Goodness.

Week 13

Tennessee at Detroit: The Lions probably should not be in this game after the first quarter, but one never knows. Here's guessing that if they come out with some Thanksgiving energy, it will be gone by the second half. Titans 27-17.

Seattle at Dallas: The Cowboys might be getting back on track. This home game will help. Cowboys 31-17.

Arizona at Philadelphia: It is really hard to predict a turnaround in Philly this week. Safe bet: Cardinals 28-20.

San Francisco at Buffalo: San Francisco looks really bad against quality teams. Buffalo is just below that quality line, but they should win Sunday. Bills 21-20.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: I still like the way Cincinnati has shown up to play every week, even if they are 1-9-1. But Baltimore's defense is still nasty, and Joe Flacco can win on the road this week. Ravens 20-10.

Indianapolis at Cleveland: The Colts are back, 27-13.

Carolina at Green Bay: This might be an OK match-up for Green Bay. Carolina's passing game has been wretched of late. Carolina should be able to run the ball and control the clock though. Panthers 20-17.

Miami at St. Louis: St. Louis is playing so bad lately, they are due for a decent game. Miami 20-14.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay: I love this match-up. In Week 1 Drew Brees threw the ball all over against Tampa, and New Orleans won 24-20. I like Tampa's defense against the inconsistent Saints. Bucs 24-20.

New York Giants at Washington: Washington is not convincing me that they are a playoff-worthy team. Giants 24-17.

Atlanta at San Diego: San Diego has played every game close, but this week I like the rock-steady Falcons, 20-16.

Pittsburgh at New England: This is a tough one. The Patriots of old would have snuffed out this version of the Steelers. But the Pittsburgh D (number one against rush and pass) might be able to rattle Matt Cassel. Still, Pats, 20-13.

Denver at New York Jets: Safe pick, again: Jets 34-28.

Kansas City at Oakland: Great match-up... Chiefs 21-18.

Chicago at Minnesota: The winner of this game has no excuse for not winning the division, especially if Green Bay loses Sunday. Vikings 23-20.

Jacksonville at Houston: Who cares? Texans 21-14.

Week 12 Rankings

1. New York Giants: They just keep on rolling, and beating quality teams in the process. Their next three games are all against NFC East teams. It is possible they will win the division during that stretch, but they might get their second loss either at Washington or at Dallas.

2. Tennessee Titans: The loss won't hurt them in the long run. They will win the division in the coming weeks, when they play at Detroit, host Cleveland, and then go to Houston. They finish with Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, but might have home-field wrapped up by then.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers: New England, Dallas, Baltimore, Tennessee. They will win at least two of these games, but man that is a tough stretch.

4. New York Jets: I will finally put them in the mix up here. Brett Favre has been protecting the ball the last few weeks. If they keep playing this way there is no reason why they can't run the table (DEN, at SF, BUF, at Sea, MIA).

5. New England Patriots: I like this team. Even with Matt Cassel at quarterback, they have a ton of weapons, and their defense is pretty tough.

14. Minnesota Vikings: A nice win for the Vikings, but they will have to be able to throw the ball down the stretch.

15. Chicago Bears: A nice win for the Bears, but they are going to have to beat a quality team at some point.

20. Green Bay Packers: A terrible loss for the Packers. Their biggest strength got dominated. 

28. Seattle Seahawks: Playing better with Matt Hasselbeck, but they are bad.

29. Cincinnati Bengals: Ok, so they play hard every week. Win a game once in a while though.

30. Kansas City Chiefs: Same as above.

31. St. Louis Rams: They look real real bad lately.

32. Detroit Lions

Chicago got a few 15's and minnesota got two 11's and two 16's. Everybody has Green Bay as the third best in the NFC North. Check out Vinnie Iyer from the Sporting News, giving Detroit some respect.

ESPN.com: CHI-15, MIN-17, G.B.-20

CBS Sports: CHI-16, MIN-17, G.B.-19

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): MIN-11, CHI-15, G.B.-18

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): MIN-11, CHI-12, G.B.-13

Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News): CHI-15, MIN-16, G.B.-17, DET-31 (He has St. Louis at 32.)

FOX Sports: CHI-15, MIN-16, G.B.-18

Wrong Again

Incredibly, I was mostly correct on my Week 12 predictions. 12 of 15 right so far. And who would have guessed Oakland would crush Denver? 

I'll skip trying to explain myself, since I didn't get to watch any of the three games I got wrong. A quick recap: The Jets beat Tennessee 34-13. I've been very hesitant to give the Jets any credit. They now deserve it, probably did before, too. Cleveland beat Houston 16-6 in a game that wasn't that important, and I was clueless about. I don't feel bad about it. And, as I said, Oakland beat Denver 31-10 in a game where the Raiders attempted only 12 passes.

Moving on, if you know me at all, you know that I hate Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback column (and read it every week). Strangely, King has a ton of Mike Tice info sprinkled throughout this week's version. Not important. He also has Kurt Warner leading the NFL MVP race. Uhhh...

The most interesting part was his analysis of the Buccaneers having Adrian Peterson "figured out." King picked the brain of the ageless Derrick Brooks. Referring back to Buc's Week 11 19-13 win over Minnesota, King says "Brooks and the Bucs did a good job on Peterson." Apparently he contacted Peterson about the Bucs "success" against him, and Peterson acknowledged that they "did a great job staying true to their gaps. Good strategy."

King, while ignoring the fact that Peterson had a nice 4.5 yards-per-carry average and didn't even have a carry in the 4th quarter, his most productive quarter for most of the season, says that the Bucs success was due to their having thrown a "front-seven net around Peterson on every logical running down." So, in case you have never watched or played football, the way to stop a running back is to plug all the possible running lanes, and (presumably) tackle him before he runs forward. Maybe King's next column should include a section where Rodney Harrison explains that the way to beat Peyton Manning is to knock the ball down when he tries to throw it to his receivers.

King apparently will be expounding on this scoop later this week with a column devoted just to Brooks and Peterson. That should be a hoot. Let's hope he actually gets to some X's and O's in that one.  Oops, this just in—Alex Rodriguez is less productive when you throw the ball past him instead of letting him hit it. And double covering Randy Moss (ahem, Miami) keeps him from catching as many passes. If your 7-year-old son is trying to shoot baskets in the drive way, and you stand in from of him and bat the ball away as it leaves his little hands, he most assuredly will not score.

King might want to consider the fact that Tampa Bay controlled the ball for over 20 minutes in the second half. That is probably the best way to stop the other team's offense.

Will Johnson Interview

Brad: You grew up in Missouri?

Will Johnson: Yeah, the first 12 years of my life.

BT: And you went to high school?

WJ: In Texas.

BT: What kinds of concerts were you going to? What was the scene like around you?

WJ: Around that age, I was going to…good lord. Typical junior high and high school kind of shows, maybe Van Halen or Huey Lewis and the News. But then, after a while the baton started getting handed off to punk rock shows, then it became smaller venues and you know Soul Asylum, Hüsker Dü, something like that.

BT: This was in Denton?

WJ: I was living in Killeen, TX, but the closest place to go to see shows was Austin. It was only an hour drive. There was a venue there called Liberty Lunch, and they would let me and my underage friends in, so I’d see a lot of shows that way.

BT: You’ve got the Minneapolis bands represented there.

WJ: Yeah I got to see the Minneapolis bands come through. I got to see the Replacements around that time for the first time. That was like ‘86, ‘87. So yeah I was lucky to be in proximity of Austin.

BT: When did you start playing drums?

WJ: When I was probably about 4 or 5 I think. I got a toy drum kit from my father at that age and kept with it.

BT: Was it awhile later that you started playing guitar?

WJ: Yeah, I think I started playing guitar when I was 16 or 17.

BT: Dave Grohl is a great drummer, but he doesn’t play drums in his own band. Has that ever been an issue for you, when Matt’s playing drums, that you want to step in?

WJ: Oh man... Never, I’ve really never had that urge. I do have the urge to play drums, I love playing drums. But I never feel some overwhelming rush of “just let me do it,” because he’s (Matt Pence) such an incredible and astonishing drummer.

BT: You do play on some of the records.

WJ: I do, I play on some of the recordings. Often times it’s a result of his encouragement. I love doing that, I really do have fun playing drums on our recordings, but rarely do I find myself insistent on playing a part.

BT: Do you guys record live or more piece-meal?

WJ: We kind of piece-meal it. More times than not we build it up like a big old cake. Sometimes we’ll cut guitar and drum parts live, but we’ll stack it up over the course of a day.

BT: Every one of you plays more than one instrument, how do you decide from song to song who is going to play what? Is it just what sounds right?

WJ: Yeah, it seems kinda like a cop-out answer, but generally that is kinda the way it goes. Someone picks up something and if they’re inspired by the instrument that happens to be in their lap, then that’s what we wind up going with a lot of the time.

BT: You’ve written and recorded a ton of songs. How do you know when it’s time to go into the studio? You also write while you are in the studio?

WJ: These days I’m writing a lot in the studio, and I’m kinda warming up to that. I’ve always written a little bit in the studio, but with the Centro-Matic side of Dual Hawks the majority of it was written right in the studio, in the moment. So lately we have done a lot more writing in the studio than I ever did previously. Honestly, it’s just a matter of knowing when that next, maybe six weeks, two months advance notice of having some studio time… It’ll definitely be in the back of my brain, and I’ll start picking away at parts and a lot of the time 50% of the recordings, these days, is written in the studio. I may show up now with six or seven songs that I really like and the rest of it we just let the record evolve with all of us there. It seems like it takes on a natural birth better that way than, “Hey, here are our 15 songs, we’re gonna do these.” I guess it feels natural doing it this way.

BT: A lot of people never have these issues, but when you started performing was there any stage fright or hesitation to put your own songs in front of people?

WJ: There was pretty significant hesitation when I first started playing under the name Centro-matic. That was before we even had a band, so I would play under the name Centro-matic solo. The only reason I had that first show was because my best friend is a promoter in Denton and he went ahead and booked the show and made up fliers and posters and everything, and said, “Hey I know you’ve got material and you’ve been thinking about playing out. I’ve got you a show two weeks from tonight.” And I insisted, absolutely not, I’m not going to jump on the stage and play. And he said, “It’s too late, I’ve already made posters and fliers and everything, so you’re committed now.” Initially I though, “Wow what an asshole thing to do.” But in hindsight it was probably the right thing to do, I’m glad that he did it. It kind of kicked me in the ass and got me ready to play.

BT: Before that you had been drumming right? That didn’t really prepare you?

WJ: Not for standing with a guitar. With the drums I felt like I could hide a little bit and could just become part of the backdrop. Standing up there singing was weird for the first little while. I had glasses at the time, and I ‘d always take the glasses off so as to just blur everything. So I couldn’t see the whites of people’s eyes, I could just see figures. That made it a little easier.

BT: I’ve noticed that Patterson Hood sort of carries the flag for you guys, and I think I saw Derry deBorja at the show last night…

WJ: Yeah, he’s right over there.

BT: What is it like to have that sort of respect from your peers?

WJ: …It still really strikes me. It just means a lot, it keeps me inspired as a writer, and it keeps all of us inspired and hopeful as a group. I’ve known Patterson for eight or nine years now and we’ve become really good buds actually. We just talked for about a half an hour earlier tonight. Sometimes I’m still taken aback that I get to be friends with some of very favorite musicians and songwriters. It’s nice to be able to call and say hey let’s go hang out or have coffee or make a record or whatever we might want to do. It still kind of floors me.

BT: They were just here with the Hold Steady, there some… real moments. I read somewhere that he wants to tour with you guys again next year. Any plans?

WJ: We tried for some stuff in January and February, but due to personal schedules and everything we can’t all commit, so we’re just going to do three shows in Athens in January with them. And then, take a look into next year, see what everybody’s schedules are looking like. Anytime we get an excuse to all hang out together, we do, be it recording or a couple one-off shows or a tour, we try to make an effort. He and I are talking about doing some recording together next year.

BT: And you’ve backed him on some of his solo stuff, live stuff. 

WJ: Yeah, that’s correct. Scott Danbom and I have played on his solo stuff and on Drive-By Truckers stuff. Yeah, just about any excuse we get to hang out we’ll try to take advantage of it.

BT: We always like to ask people what they are listening to at the moment.

WJ: These days I’m listening to this new eccentric soul compilation, from the Brotherman soundtrack, which finally got released after 30-plus years.  Been listening to this girl Sarah Jaffe, she’s a Denton songwriter, a really, really amazing songwriter. Um…Constantines a little bit, I’ve been liking them a lot. What else… there’s one that I’m totally blanking on, that I keep going back to and back to… I keep going back to that old DJ Shadow record, Introducing.

BT: Do you get a chance to go see a lot of shows?

WJ: These days not so much. Coming up I’m going to be home for about two and a half months, so I’ll finally get a chance to get to go to shows and not have to load in.

BT: Is there any significance, I noticed last night that you changed clothes between sets?

WJ: I’ll usually shed a layer, but no there no real costume change or anything crazy like that. The most extravagant thing is maybe I’ll change into a pair of tennis shoes for Centro-matic. But, there’s no overwhelming change of face or anything like that. It does take a few minutes to shift gears between the styles of music, and say “OK, now we’re gonna turn it up…”

Centro-matic/ South San Gabriel

Country Music Goodness has posted a story of mine about Centro-matic/South San Gabriel. They came through New York City for two nights earlier this week, and I got a chance to chat with Will Johnson, lead singer and songwriter for both groups, before their Tuesday night show at The Bell House in Brooklyn. I was 20 minutes late, but he was very forgiving, and took a break from putting the night's setlists together. I'll post the transcript of the interview on here later, in case anybody just wants the facts.

Antoine Winfield

Jerry Holt captured this shot of Antoine Winfield as he was returning a fumble for a touchdown against Carolina in Week 3. Winfield is having one of the best seasons of his career, and you can read about it on the Star Tribune's site.

Week 12

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Steelers could use a week off, as they are in the middle of tough stretch. But Cincinnati hasn't been making things easy on anybody. Ask Donovan McNabb. Steelers, 17-13.

Tampa Bay at Detroit: The Lions are going to win a game, eventually. But Tampa is too good. Bucs, 24-13.

New York Jets at Tennessee: The Jets have shown that they can play a complete game, and make big plays, but Tennessee should be able to negate some of their strengths. Titans, 20-16.

Buffalo at Kansas City: The Chiefs keep getting close to upsets, but the Bills need to turn things around. Bills, 27-20.

Chicago at St. Louis: Tempting to predict a Rams upset over the fading Bears, but they sure have looked bad the last few weeks. Bears, 21-17.

New England at Miami: Miami crushed New England last time, but Matt Cassel is playing pretty well, and the veteran Pats will find a way to win. Patriots, 31-27.

Minnesota at Jacksonville: Minnesota will have their starting defensive line, and they should neutralize the Jags running game. Vikings, 23-21.

Philadelphia at Baltimore: The Eagles are frustratingly inconsistent. The Ravens flat-out tough. Ravens, 20-17.

Houston at Cleveland: Cleveland is at least proving that they aren't horrible. Still a wasted season. Browns, 28-21.

San Francisco at Dallas: When I was 10-years-old this was the biggest match-up in the NFL. Not this week. Cowboys, 31-21.

Oakland at Denver: Always an exciting match-up, the Raiders defense might be able to keep this one close for a little while, but I always go with Jay Cutler. Broncos, 35-17.

Washington at Seattle: Washington needs to rebound from that tough loss to Dallas, and stay in the wildcard lead. Washington, 27-21.

New York Giants at Arizona: Maybe Kurt Warner can throw for 300 against his former team. Maybe he will also throw three picks. Giants, 28-24.

Carolina at Atlanta: NFC South match ups will be interesting from here on out. I like MAtt Ryan at home. Falcons, 24-17.

Indianapolis at San Diego: Indianapolis looks like they have figured things out. Too late to win the division, but in time to jump into the wildcard race. Colts, 31-20.

Green Bay at New Orleans: I think Green Bay's biggest asset is their pass defense, and this week they will get gauged.  Saints, 28-21.

Ranking the NFL

1. New York Giants: Contradicting myself by moving the Titans, but the Giants are simply the best team in the league right now.

2. Tennessee Titans: They keep doing what they do.

3. Carolina Panthers: From this point on it felt like nobody deserved to be so high, but somebody had to go here.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers: They are winning extremely close games. Will they wear down?

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: They are one of the more balanced teams in the league, mostly because of Jeff Garcia.

16. Minnesota Vikings: They lost to a better team, and moved up because Chicago and Philadelphia fell apart.

17. Green Bay Packers: I'm not ready to say they've righted the ship just yet.

20. Chicago Bears: Two in a row, but they get the Rams next.

28. Kansas City Chiefs: They have some nice young players. I wonder how long they will keep Herm Edwards around.

29. Seattle Seahawks: They suck.

30. St. Louis Rams: It seems to be getting worse.

31. Oakland Raiders: At least they kept it close.

32. Detroit Lions

ESPN.com: G.B.- 16, CHI-19, MIN-21

Michael Silver (Yahoo!): G.B.-11, MIN-12, CHI-17

CBS Sports: G.B.-15, CHI-18, MIN-20

Jeff Sagarin (USA Today): G.B.-9, CHI-12, MIN-15

FOX Sports: G.B.-14, CHI-17, MIN-18

So wrong, So much of the time

Once again, I have proved that I cannot pick NFL games. Here are some of the worst misses:

I thought that when the Jets went to New England last Thursday the game would be a little bit more on the defensive side. Instead, the Patriots gained over 500 yards, and the Jets used a balanced attack to put up 34 points. The Patriots actually played a pretty solid game overall, but the Jets came up with big plays, and New England did not. In the first half the Jets looked like they might run away with the game, especially after a Leon Washington 92-yard kickoff return. But, as one might expect, Bill Belichick made the proper adjustments at half time, and the Pats stormed back into the game.

The Jets defense had the epitome of a bend-but-don't-break performance. They somehow managed to give up 400 yards passing to Matt Cassel. Cassel looked as good as he has all year, turning from a one-read quarterback into one who was checking down and finding single coverage when he had to. But the Jets came up with a few stops in this game, even if they were on their own side of the field. They won this game because of two long drives, one in the 4th quarter, and the second on the opening possession of overtime. This was a really great game, and was a rare one that leads the viewer to believe that both teams are legit, even if one lost.

Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos actually managed to play some defense in Atlanta, and came up with a huge win. My mantra with the Broncos all season has said that Jay Cutler will put up big numbers, but their defense will let them down. For now, they look to have the AFC West and a first-round home game wrapped up, with San Diego (4-6) losing to Pittsburgh. Sunday's 24-20 win over the Falcons might spark a run for the Broncos.

In the case of the Philadelphia Eagles, I think it is time to write them off. They have been wildly inconsistent from week to week. Sometimes, they have looked very good, even in losses. Other times, Donovan McNabb can't hold on to the ball, and they look pretty bad. Yes, Cincinnati has played tough in a lot of their losses, but the Eagles were supposed to be a contender, and they are lucky to have tied the Bengals. McNabb has to take care of the ball. The defense played solid, but somewhere along the line you have to put up some points. Ugliest game of the year? 13-13 might tell the entire story.

How they score on us

After discovering the official gamebooks for each game on NFL.com, I did a little research. The game book basically is a collection of every single piece of official information from an NFL game. It includes drive charts, final statistics, and a play-by-play of the game, among other things. I'll be referring to this from now on, part of my statistical obsession.

Time of Possession

The Vikings have won time of possession in six of nine games. In those six games, they are 3-3, and all three wins came at home. Interestingly, Minnesota is 2-1 when they don't control the ball. 

The second quarter has been a weird one for the Vikings. Opponents have controlled the ball for 10 more minutes in the 2nd. But, the Vikings have outscored teams 67-46. That doesn't seem to line up. It evens out. In the third quarter, Minnesota has held the ball 14 minutes longer than opponents but have been outscored 66-37. The main reason for this? The following scores have occurred in the 3rd quarter of Viking games this season:

Week 1: Will Blackmon returns a punt 76 yards for a touchdown. In this quarter Minnesota held the ball for 12:42 and managed just a field goal.

Week 5: Reggie Bush returns a punt 71 yards for a touchdown. Minnesota won time of possession in this quarter also (a modest 8:20-6:40), but did not score.

Week 7: Chicago pulls out three 20-yard-plus plays, including a 51-yard touchdown pass to Marty Booker.

Week 10: Green Bay gets two return touchdowns in the third quarter. First, Nick Collins returned a Gus Frerotte interception 59 yards for a score. A few minutes later, Will Blackmon again returned a punt for a touchdown against Minnesota, this time 65 yards. The Vikings held the ball for 11:12, and were outscored 14-7.

If nothing else, these facts are weird. The Vikings are making things hard on themselves. 

Opponents scoring drives

These numbers are less telling, but equal head scratchers. Here is how teams are scoring against the Vikings:

As a team, Minnesota has given up 38 scores this season. 25 touchdowns, 13 field goals.

8 touchdowns have come on run plays, 9 on pass plays and 8 more on returns. The returns: 4 punts, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble, 1 blocked punt.

10 opponents scoring drives have started from midfield or Vikings territory. Amazingly, Minnesota has managed to give opponents the ball at their own 6-yard line twice. Both times touchdowns were scored. The longest drives given up for scores are two 80-yarders (Colts, Bears), both after touchbacks. 

In Week 10 Green Bay scored all of their non-return points (a touchdown and two field goals) after starting in Minnesota territory.

These stats are just odd. But they don't really tell us that much about the Vikings defense, good or bad. They do confirm one thing: field position is huge in the NFL, as if we needed to be told that.