Last year the same weekend was full of... big men. Patriots, Giants, and Packers. Neato. The Eagles last conference championship was another one fought in mid-air, against the Falcons. Probably the most incredible thing about the three-bird weekend is that the Cardinals are one of the birds. The Eagles have gotten this far quite a lot since Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb took over the team (this is their fourth NFC Championship game together), but the Cardinals hadn't won a playoff game since 1998 before they beat Atlanta at home two weeks ago. The Ravens, of course, are among the recently crowned, having won the 2000 Super Bowl.
The Philadelphia-Arizona game seems like a bit of a rip-off; what happened to New York and Carolina, the two running-est and best-loved NFC teams all season? Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh-Baltimore rematch seems almost too good to be true. Here's what needs to be known: The NFC game will be more exciting than the AFC game. Exciting is almost impossible to define in professional sports; some people want a bunch of touchdowns, some want a bunch of defense, and some quit watching after their fantasy football team lost in the playoffs. In this case, it will be a matter of the NFC game staying close, and the Steelers running away from Baltimore.
Baltimore has played well the last month, and won some very big games. They almost beat Pittsburgh last time around, in a heated, controversial game. But the fact of the matter is that the Steelers are the better team, and are much better prepared for this game. They have no glaring weaknesses, and are playing at home. They have a quarterback with a ring. Look, I know I've lauded Baltimore for most of the year, including last week after they beat Tennessee. And I think they will play fine. And they will hit and run the ball and all of that. And they will lose.
The Eagles are match-up problem for most teams because of their aggressive defense. They force teams to change things up and take chances. The Cardinals are a tough match-up because their passing game can beat anybody. Basically, this game will boil down to two things: Kurt Warner staying on his feet, and the Cardinals defense continuing to tackle well and play at a high intensity.
Last week the Arizona defense was as nasty as they are capable of. They were hitting and wrapping up and catching the ball when Jake Delhomme threw it near them. They'll have to do the same. Brian Westbrook hasn't done much in this year's playoffs, and the Cardinals would be wise to keep attention on him. McNabb is playing well. He'll hurt the Cardinals a few times, but they should be able to minimize the big plays. Warner, on the other hand, just needs to find the hot receiver on blitzes (something he has always been known for), and give Larry Fitzgerald a couple chances to make plays. If Warner can do that, the Cardinals can score 30 points.
With that:
Pittsburgh 34-17. Might be a close first half, but eventually Pittsburgh will make the big plays.
Philadelphia 30-27. I can't make myself actually pick the Cardinals, for the third straight week.
4 comments:
Hasn't it been a long time since a team beat someone three times in one year? Or did the Vikes do that in '04? Either way, Ravens-Eagles.
There was a time when conventional wisdom said that beating a team three times in one season was rare. I seem to remember that being disproved. The Giants beat Dallas in the playoffs last year after being swept in the regular season, and Minnesota did the same to Green Bay in 2004 (then swept them in 2005, to answer the question). But, also in 2004, the Rams beat Seattle three times, and in 2002 Pittsburgh did the same to Cleveland. I think it goes about 50-50.
Going back to 1986, this situation has happened 14 times, and the team that swept the regular season has won the playoff game nine times. Yes, I looked it up.
i'm rooting for the ducks, meself.
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